King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulajev)

Reports have it that Thailand's much loved and revered King Bhumibol is again in ailing health.

Fortunately his premature expiration has been falsely predicted on many occasions and, for many years, he has managed to soldier on – and the country continues prosper as a beacon of economic success and development for South East Asia and rest of the world.

Most Thais would rejoice if the King's daughter succeeded her father to the throne.

She is (genuinely) much loved by the populace as a whole.

But the Royal line of succession precludes a Queen of Siam.

It is for this reason that millions of Thais are praying that the King will continue to live – for forever and a day.   We all know that such is not going to happen and talk in the country about the Royal succession, whilst strictly forbidden, is nonetheless the main event in every other Thai household.

The King's son, however, is the likely successor.

[Interestingly, there has been a Buddhist prophesy for centuries that after the IX Rama, the dynasty will end.   I am unclear as to whether this solely refers to the male lineage or the dynasty as a whole.   There are so many different versions and interpretations of this prophesy that it would just be too confusing to mention all of them - other than to say that some Thais give considerable weight and respect to prophesy.]

King Bhumibol has brought stability, economic prosperity and development for Thailand as a whole.

Yes, admittedly there are groups – political parties, farmers, local communities, trades union representatives who will tell you a different story - and there are genuine grievances about wealth distribution, corruption, intrigues for power and influence within the elite of the Armed Forces and the Royal Thai Police.

Then there are border disputes with Cambodia which, thanks to international mediation and restraint by both sides, rarely escalate beyond occasional skirmishes over temples.

In November of last year, much to the disappointment of Thailand, the U.N. Court ruled in favor of Cambodia in the area around Preah Vihear Temple and ordered Thai forces to withdraw from the immediate vicinity.  This area is likely to be the flashpoint for further future conflict between the two countries as Thai nationalists and their supporters in the armed forces will never accept this decision.

There is also the prospect of Islamic insurgency intensifying in the South of the country as Malaysia does little to bring the insurgents to heel - for fear that the Jihadi militias will turn their attention (guns and bombs) to waging a campaign to destabilize the peace and quiet of Malaysia proper and an even greater threat is that they will link across with Jihadi insurgents in the province of Sabah to create a unified front – which could have devastating consequences for economic and political stability in the region as a whole.
[The Malaysia authorities will argue that they work in cooperation with Thai security forces to prevent terrorist infiltration across both sides of the border and will also suggest that arms and explosives are reaching Islamic rebels not across the Thai-Malaya border but from other countries.]

Hence the successor to King Bhumibol  will require the continued unanimous support of the Police and Armed forces to ensure that peace on the Thai-Cambodia and Thai-Malaysia borders are maintained as these areas could quickly flare into all-out wars between both parties, if outstanding border and Islamic identity issues, are not resolved to the long-term satisfaction of protagonists, and continue to linger.

Patrick Emek



http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2011/08/03/kings_failing_health_and_his_30b_fortune_puts_thailand_in_jeopardy.html


http://kanchanapisek.or.th/library/Tambiah-Thailand3.htm


http://madeinthai.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/the-nine-kings-of-the-chakri-dynasty-rama-i-%E2%80%93-the-founding-father-2/


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324906004578289220025564486


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/world/asia/un-court-rules-for-cambodia-in-temple-dispute-with-thailand.html?_r=0


https://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20130108213038AAciCU3