The Ukraine: A  Bridge Too Far ?

I said in a previous blog that the actions of Russia could push the Ukraine into an economic abyss.

Beyond that, ethnic cleansing will create refugees fleeing into Russia in numbers and tragic scenes we normally associate with Africa and the Middle East.

What does the future now hold in store for the European Union, The Ukraine, America and Russia?

The above assumes that Russia will just 'stand by' while 'over-motivated' Ukrainian nationalist forces

supported by the Ukrainian Air Force overrun the 'terrorists' in the Eastern Ukraine.

The likelihood is that Russia will, sooner rather than later, either directly or indirectly (utilizing

'contracted' special units) intervene before such a refugee catastrophe and mayhem takes shape on and over it's border with The Ukraine.  The key question is will NATO join the fray or just let Russian forces 'fight it out' – perhaps with years of guerrilla warfare as both sides attempt to wrest control of the country caught up in the vortex of civil war. We could well have a scenario similar to that of the historic Civil War in  Spain (The Spanish Civil War, July 1936-April 1939) – with fighting brigades from the four corners of the globe being encouraged to show support for the legitimate government in Kiev.   Likewise Russia will also mobilize patriotic fervor amongst it's citizens throughout the Federation so as to ensure that a proxy war takes shape with years (perhaps decades) of instability ensuing.

Lets be clear about why the Soviet Union lost the Cold War: it was outspent by the West to such an extent that standards of living were actually going backwards as the USSR desperately struggled to keep pace with military innovations, nuclear arms and the SDI program and last but not least, the economic aspirations and expectations of it's own people.  Likewise there is some confidence that if push comes to shove, the West can 'outspend' Russia, ultimately, on a proxy war in the Ukraine.  And what about the plight of all of the Ukrainian people during years or decades of  future conflict?

As I said earlier, without the East and Crimea the Ukraine literally reverts to being just a breadbasket (not a basket case – at least not yet).

I remember at my childhood school being taught the history of this vast territory and I imagined the vast expanses of wheat lands stretching across the plains until ultimately meeting the border of Russia. (My history teachers also wrote history books, had studied such areas in very great detail, so I had an appreciation of history from people who knew what they were talking about.)

The immediate future for all of the people living in this region – whose ancestors have seen so much terror, brutality and hardship throughout the centuries - looks very bleak.

The lessons of history which existing superpowers have learnt is that the Russian people are (historically) very resilient to pain and suffering and hardship and are in 'for the long-haul'.   In a nuclear age, the thought of direct conflict between superpowers, even using conventional tactics, with the potential for escalation, is unthinkable.   The only other options are therefore unconventional – and there is a toolbox full of unconventional scenarios – which the people of the Ukraine will, sadly, because of recklessness, feel unleashed with maximum and merciless efficiency - by all sides.

I remember a NATO-sponsored visit to the Ardennes Forest many decades ago.  It was a beautiful summer's day.   I recall there was a well-mannered and convivial gentleman, probably African in origin, selling trinkets nearby at the side of a road where we disembarked.  I cheerfully greeted him and we briefly conversed and agreed about the glorious weather surrounding us.  As I looked across the vineyards so beautiful and placid in the sweltering afternoon, with just a very gentle breeze wafting through the trees, and I looked into the rich brown soil, I could not but help reflect on the millions who had perished over the centuries amid such and similar fields of tranquility throughout Europe – men, women, children, babies (born and unborn), who were just obliterated and never had the chance to know what it was all about.

Their epitaph should read 'they died for a cause' – but most would have preferred to have lived happily with their families and loved ones, if they had not been ordered (or influenced) to hate.

This is the Russia, this is The Ukraine, this is the Europe those fortunate enough having escaped to the 'Promised Land', America, left behind, forever; and believe me, if you were caught up in tribalism, famine, clan and civil warfare, racialism, Apartheid, Pogroms in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and elsewhere in Europe, America is, or should I say, was, the Promised Land.

Lets just hope (and if you are religious, you might pray) that it never comes to this again in Europe and that all will step back from the brink of the abyss, reflect, and take shelter from the coming storm.

Patrick Emek

typographical corrections on 25th April 2014