The
Ukraine:
The
Slide Towards Civil War-Who Is Really To Blame?
CNN, Fox and all other major U.S. media
networks have started the blame game.
Almost all have under-reported the
deaths of independence supporters in the city of
Odessa and elsewhere. None have
mentioned how such deaths were caused in a Trades Union building set ablaze -other than to say that both sides were
using incendiary devices. The interim government in Kiev, because of the volatile situation, has not
permitted independent media crews to cover events for the West but
there are (as yet) unsubstantiated (independent) claims that genocide
may have been perpetrated by nationalist Ukrainian forces as they
re-took Odessa. Because of a media blackout I cannot
substantiate a single media source which is making this claim but in the absence of any mention of a
slide to civil war and no media attempt (nor permission granted by
the interim Ukrainian authorities in Kiev) it is unwise to speculate
before all the facts are independently confirmed.
Genocide
and Civil War:
Why
It Is Unwise To Speculate
It does appear
that major efforts are taking place by the Ukrainian authorities to
re-take cities and major towns in the East. To speculate that ultra
nationalist forces of a paramilitary nature are deliberately
murdering their fellow-Ukrainian citizens (because they do not regard
then as 'fellow-citizens' but aliens) would be to invoke memories of
a terrible past-involving pogroms against Jews,Gypsies and
other minorities in the North and the West of the Ukraine. Once the
terminology 'genocide' appears in the world media, it automatically
triggers a series of actions. This was why I
earlier referred to Rwanda and why the U.S. (and, we now know, the
U.N.) in that case, was so hesitant for a period of time, to use this
terminology knowing full well the consequences and responsibilities
placed on the international community once the word is invoked. It would also
immediately force the hand of the U.N. Secretary General to invoke
universally agreed international principles against the conduct of
genocide and trigger a U.N. General Assembly debate for immediate
cessation of hostilities and intervention of an independent force to
stop the genocide. It would also be a recognition, officially, that
the country is in a state of civil war. It is not at all clear with
mass genocide being confirmed (if such was indeed to ever be the
case) that the present international coalition in support of the
Ukrainian Democrats in Kiev would continue to be sustained at the
United Nations. So this is the
reason your media service is being 'economical' with the truth. In fact they
would be doing The Ukraine country, as a whole, a favor by
intervening at this early point because I will relate to you what
will likely happen next. As I earlier
predicted, the country is, because of recklessness, in a state of
civil war. I also said that 'sub-contracted' 'militias' similar to the Syrian Civil War (and, in an earlier time, in the last century,The Spanish Civil War) would be
used. I clearly said
that both sides would use contracted professionals to conduct a proxy war – if The Russian
Federation did not 'take the bait' with a direct military
intervention. All indications,
from the Ukrainian government reporting, are that the 'terrorist'
blockades were easily over-run. This may sound good news but a more
careful analysis would suggest it is anything but that. What is
does mean is that Russian 'sub-contracted' special forces and
militias from within the Federation have not yet joined the battle.
This is extremely bad news for the government in Kiev – which now
has to deal with the logistical aftermath of attack knowing that it
is operating both in 'unknown' and hostile territory without the
consent nor support of the (majority ethnic Russian) local populations.
Iraq:
Ghosts
of Past Mistakes – However Worthy The Ideals and Visions for The
Country
Former President George W. Bush (Jnr.) and Former Prime Minister of Britain, Tony Blair, both devout Christians,
cannot shake off the ghosts of Iraq – so terrible has the outcome
of intervention been for the country and it's people as a whole - now in a much worse
condition than before the brutal dictatorship of Saddam Hussein was
overthrown with the Iran now left holding the balance of power
(through Muqtada al-Sadr1– a cleric venerated by
most Shias in Iraq, and who is, at present, being prepared in Iran
(Qom) as a future Grand Ayatollah to take leadership of
that shattered country.) So the outcome in Iraq was totally the
opposite of what intervention was (at least publicly) meant to bring
about.
Be
Careful What You Wish For
We
are all familiar with the Chinese saying 'be careful what you wish
for'. What I have attempted to do in my analysis of the crisis in
the Ukraine is to balance the challenge of the new democrats in Kiev
with the expectations of their fellow-countrymen and women in the
South and in the East.
Should
national elections go ahead in the East with towns and cities under
military attack or even worse under military or para-military rule,
this will be the spark for insurgency on a massive scale.
At
that point we may well see Russian sub-contracted units start to
engage Ukrainian nationalists.
Faced
with professional units I have serious doubts whether highly
motivated Ukrainian nationalists not having this training nor expertise, can hold out – without massive
international intervention. So
the blame game will then start.
So
Who Is To Blame For The Chaos In The Ukraine?
Victoria Nuland and John Kerry
will both tell the Europeans 'We told you so!'; 'if you had done
things our way, and not gone it alone by forcing The Ukraine to
choose between East and West, we could have both had the Kiev
nationalists running the whole country - including Crimea and the
East – and without redress to this chaos and civil war to which we
are all now having to militarily commit to prevent Kiev being left
falling into an economic and military abyss inside which it simply
cannot cope with nor win.' So Ms. Nuland's expletive
deletive2
with regard to the EU may now be beginning to make greater sense to
the world as the United States is again being forced to commit to
Europe to prevent ethnic and tribal bloodshed (as it did in the
Balkans recently and before that, between 1939-1945) and to prevent the
EU dragging the whole of Europe over the brink simply to fulfill a
vision of creating a monolithic bloc stretching from the Atlantic to
the Pacific in both directions. Such are the visions of rulers and
demagogues throughout all periods in world history – and upon
which empires were built and have crumbled into dust.
Do
not expect addresses to the nations by local politicians to inform
the populations of Europe that the countries are now at war. The
assumption being that since everyone is already well-informed then
public declarations are unnecessary.
Patrick
Emek
amendment and typographical corrections, May 5
amendment and typographical corrections, May 5
1.http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/al-sadr.htm
2.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnTLaRk013E