Monday, 1 June 2015

The Wooden Horse of  Merkel


The prospect of Greece exiting the Euro becomes ever closer as the country lurches from crisis to crisis. Greek politicians have accused the EU of imposing onerous burdens on the counrty for the release of much needed bail-out monies. The EU and monetary institutions have said that they have no choice and that Greece can, in effect, take it or leave it. Under such conditions we should not be too surprised if the Greek government finally gives in to popular public pressure and exits the monetary union.

If Greece can persuade Russia and China to step in and fill the gap by providing much needed credit it might not just survive outside the Euro but actually prosper as the Switzerland (or Monaco) of the Mediterranean.
The fascinating thing about China is that it is not tied to the 'old' colonial (mercantilist) or European or U.S. models of trade-aid, investment and business.
For example, the business model in parts of Africa is to offer to develop the entire infrastructure for a country rather than piecemeal development tied to foreign NGOs and aid.
This model is much more acceptable for a developing country than one single project.
The business model in the United States simply cannot adjust to this way of doing business since the U.S. government cannot instruct the private sector to operate according to it's vision for the United States in Africa over the next 100 years.  Such thinking is outside the Anglo-Saxon (European) world financial parameters for the conduct of international commerce by private and stock listed conglomerates.
This is of course in return for guaranteed exclusive strategic resources, raw materials and mining rights for periods of 50-100 years.
Then there is the issue of politics. China is always reluctant to get involved in the internal affairs of countries it is trading with.  This is for two immediate reasons.    It does not at present have the logistical capability to project it's considerable military power globally. Secondly, for so long as the country it is trading with is politically stable, it sees no reason to 'play internal politics' so issues such as human rights are not as important as political stability whether under a totalitarian regime or benevolent dictatorship.  There is no 'public pressure' to respond to within China for the conduct of it's foreign relations. Indeed , with the exception of Japan, the concept of public and media 'pressure' determining foreign policy is non-existent – unless organised and approved by the State itself.
Of course it would like to 'export' its own development model – and indeed Africa could be a very fertile continent for a 'new beginning' having been left a patchwork of artificially created boundary nations by the departing colonial powers. To give one example, until very recently African citizens of Francophone countries sharing common borders, beside one another, had to travel by air through Paris to get to the country next door (!)   Such absurdities are matched in the Caribbean - another area where China is making considerable in-roads for the simple reason that there are untapped or some might say underdeveloped economic potentials which the colonial powers have ignored in favor of a (now outdated) mercantilist system of bilateral trade-aid. This master-servant relationship is now being challenged by new players with very different development models.
Inter-trade between Caribbean islands has been stunted in favor of the bilateral relations with the former colonial powers.   Again China has understood that within this vacuum is a vast untapped potential for inter-development and inter-trade amongst the islands of the Caribbean to its own advantage whilst at the same time showing Caribbean islands what their true potential could be as a 'bloc'. Perhaps it takes an outside force of a non-military kind with the resources to show what new possibilities could exist under different parameters?
Not everyone of course is happy with Chinese investment but, as with any pioneers, you have to admire their spirit of adventure – being prepared to risk all in foreign lands in the hope of future success. It's a major trek from China to Africa or to The Caribbean.
No less a trek than it was for Christopher Columbus or the great Arab explorers Ibn Battuta and Ibn Majid or Marco Polo or indeed the great Chinese Treasure Fleet under Admiral Cheng Ho or Scylax of Caryanda.
In terms of the mission, for China, it is an even bigger trek today to Africa than the one to Greece. At least in Greece systems of civic society are highly developed over thousands of years. In Africa there are major challenges.   In the Caribbean, because of it's proximity to the major superpower -The United States - and it's inheritance of Anglo-Saxon systems of governance (in much the same way as Europe inherited Greco-Roman civilization as it's foundation) systems are in place in civic society which only require 'kick-starting' or 'rebooting' to realise their fuller potentials as clusters of autonomous economic entities or units in their own right whilst also trading with the rest of the world. China has seen an underdeveloped potential and is rapidly exploiting it in a way Western economies either have no desire to do or are not configured to invest within.

So when I hear or read media comments about the imminent 'collapse' of Greece into bankruptcy, anarchy and chaos, I often wonder whether any of the individuals writing such nonsense ever actually studied the history of Greece from four thousand year ago or indeed have ever cared to remember where their own European civilization developed out of?
Because if they had, they would not be so dismissive of the Greeks when their backs are up against the wall and 'enemies' are at the gates or on the beaches or raining fire and brimstone.
There is a saying ''when the going gets tough, the tough get going.''

The Wooden Horse of Merkel may well be in for a 'surprise' reception as the troops disembark!


©Patrick Emek, 2015









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