Tuesday 8 May 2018


Why The Election Results In The Lebanon May Be Even More Important For Americans Than Trump's Decision About Iran.


In order to help you understand a very complicated part of the world with very complicated politics, I have left out party names and affiliates to extract the main issues

Out Of The Ashes (Hezbollah As A Regional Power)
For the first time in history, Hezbollah and parties loyal to it are taking control in the Lebanon.

I have said recently that most Western politicians have little if any understanding about exactly what is happening on the ground in the Middle East.
In either event, a clear picture on which to make decisions is rarely available.
Western politicians do not get the truth from Israel – because it's operatives report to their government and the Israeli government misrepresents events to the U.S. and all analysis is done to satisfy their own domestic Israeli government agenda.


Out Of the Ashes:Iran As A Regional Power
The world already knows about Iran.
I commented on the merits of the Nuclear Agreement in 2015 and my views have not changed.
(refer to the blog using the search key for this site above.)
I did not comment about recent bellicose statements because I assumed rational and sane individuals would easily see through Netanyahu's deception. Unfortunately 'assumptions' are the mothers of all errors – and we are dealing with a general public who get their information in 3-minute sound bytes from ill-informed (or just sheer biased) media sources.

Out Of The Ashes:Israel, Of It's Own Doing, Relegated And Isolated In An Increasingly Expanding Shia-Dominated Region to the East and South and South East, With A Salafist Extremist and Expansionist Turkey to The North
It is important because Donald Trump is going to appeal to his base to support military action against Iran.
I got into some argument in 2013 when I said that Saudi Arabia had already given secret overflight permission to Israel to take out Iran's military uranium research and processing facility at ********* ** ************
Obama refused to support Netanyahu and, through back-channels, made it clear that Israel would be acting alone if it bombed any Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israel backed off – but Netanyahu's enmity for Obama in part stems from this decision.
Obama did not want to be remembered as a President who yet again committed U.S. Forces to another Middle East conflict in this endless cycle of conflicts between the Arabs and the Israelis.
Trump, a committed Zionist, has no problem with committing U.S. Forces to, what is in essence a war between the Arabs (this time Shia Muslims) and Israelis but which will have to be 'packaged' and 'sold' to the U.S. public as a war against a 'terrorist state'.
My sadness is that young Americans with families will be dying for hollow causes – wrapped and packaged by President Trump and his supportive groups as a war of 'patriotism'.

This is one war, if there ever was one since Afghanistan and Iraq, which is totally unnecessary.

Fast forward to today.
We have a Zionist President of the United States who has fooled the general public to an extent that only a national debate at some stage in the future might attempt to resolve but, for the moment, Donald Trump supporters are likely to accept anything which he proposes – such as a war with Iran - – to demonstrate their loyalty to his 'vision'.

This, however, will be a war like no other.  It will be technological and drone-based – but these alone will not defeat Iran.  Ground forces will be an essential part of defeating Iran.

The Patsy and The Fall Guys
Initially Jim Mattis, Secretary of Defense, has persuaded Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf Cooperative States to join in a military coalition against Iran.
The U.S. provides the infrastructure while the Saudis provide the money and the Jordanians, Turks and Gulf States front with manpower for the Israelis – who stay in the background providing intelligence and covert missions inside Iran.

Sounds like a perfectly well-orchestrated scenario – with just one problem:
None of the U.S. Allies in the Gulf have any backbone and any honest analyst will tell you that the American troops on the ground, their Western Allies (NATO) and the Israelis will, ultimately, have to get involved simply to get the job finished successfully.  So it will be again innocent Israelis (IDF) hoodwinked by Netanyahu and Allied forces (NATO) bullied into subservience by Trump who will end up doing the fighting and dying – whilst their Arab coalition partners, with the notable exception of the Turkish Armed forces, will all dive for cover when the going gets rough since all are woefully incapable of taking on the Iranian Armed forces, Hezbollah and allied forces (such as the not-disbanded Mahdi Army.  Never forget, Muqtada al-Sadr has a personal family score to settle with Saudi Arabia – which encouraged Saddam Hussein to murder his father, two of his sons, and his father-in-law - and retribution runs long - and is generational - in this part of the world.)

The Lebanon and Syria: This Is What Your Mainstream Media Is Not Discussing

Israel's treatment of the Palestinians, with the political endorsement of the President of the United States, is having a profound effect on public opinion across the Arab world.
Support for organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah is at an all-time high because of this and the unmasking of ISIS as a tool of the Americans and of the Israelis has not helped the situation.
(I said many years ago that Israel's covert support of ISIS would not lead to a good place.
Likewise can be said of Saad Hariri's covert support for ISIS – which has alienated his own support base in Lebanon and almost caused him to go into exile in Saudi Arabia.)

Taking Christians For Granted:
[How Putin Seized Control Of The Middle East:Political Incompetence Of The West]
The terrible atrocities committed by ISIS against Shias, Yazidis, Christian Arabs and Kurds to mention but a few groups, and the fact that the West effectively stood by and did nothing to curb the excesses of ISIS, coupled with the fact that President Putin did intervene to, in effect, save Syrian Christians and other minority communities whilst the West stood by as, at best on onlooker, at worst a supporter of ISIS to create as much chaos and destabilization as was imaginable, have all combined to persuade many Christians and Shias that their ultimate fate can never be protected by America, Turkey and NATO.
This is, for the greater part, the real reason that Hezbollah is about to take power in the Lebanon. If you think that's bad, it gets even worse.
Russia is now seen throughout the Shia world not just as a protector of Syrian sovereignty but as the protector of the Shia world and Putin as the only superpower leader who is stable, intelligent, moderated in his language on world affairs and a trustworthy, reliable and stable partner.
It gets much worse.

Iran As A Regional Superpower
Iran is poised for major victories in Yemen. Even in Pakistan and parts of India – where BJP (Hindu Nationalists and ultra-Nationalists – not dissimilar to supporters of Donald Trump - and a significant number of the latter who are anti-American because of what they perceive as 'cultural pollution' by America, Britain and the West to undermine their millennia traditions, cultural practices and customs and subject them to Western values – thereby destroying or replacing (supplanting) Hinduism with a 'Westernised' version – subject to, as they perceive it, Western values and Western cultural, social, economic and political 'diktats'.)
This is very similar, in kind, to a movement in Nigeria (West Africa) known as 'Boko Haram' [meaning: Education, values, cultural-ethnic-tribal ''pollution'' by the Christian/Atheist/Pagan West is 'Haram' or 'Sinful' (to Islam and to Islamic traditions.)   If you want to know more about Boko Haram I looked at this movement some time ago in order to appreciate it's perception of the world.  Search this blogsite to learn about how Boko Haram ''sees'' the world, and, just as important, how it perceives 'the faithful' and all others - whom it regards as 'infidels' to burn eternally in fires of molten liquid.  Do not underestimate the appeal of Boko Haram nor BJP Hindu ultra-nationalists who, together, across two separate continents, share the same 'anger' about perceived ''cultural pollution'' (by Christian/Western Europeans in this particular case)  as indeed do many ultra-nationalist supporters of Donald Trump in the United States today.  The parallels  are quite striking.]
What is alarming is how all of these totally independent (Hindu/Shia Islam and Sunni) movements with almost nothing in common are converging in interests against Western values and and are prepared to see common ground to 'stop' and 'push back' the influence of 'cultural pollution'(Westernism) often channeled through international bodies, onto their respective communities in India and in Africa.
In India for example, a not insignificant minority of BJP Hindu ultra-nationalists are making common ground with Shia (Muslim) communities – who are opposed to Pakistan and it's support for ISIS and al Qaeda in India, in Kashmir and in Afghanistan.


It gets worse.


A New Military Alliance Across The Shia World – Including Lebanon's Hezbollah?
Few of you younger readers will recall the United Arab Republic.
It was a short-lived attempted unification of the Arab world between Syria and Egypt (1958-1961.)

A similar Shia movement is about to be born linking Shias across the Levant and, with approval of Moscow, in regions of the Caucasus'.
This will all of course be under the military umbrella of the Russian Federation.

There is currently debate and discussions in the Shia world as to how this movement will evolve and what it's objectives will be. NATO and under it's umbrella, the European Union, are seen as templates for this movement.

The profound effects such an alliance will have on transfer pipelines across the regions (see my blog 'The Great Game') will be very profound in its long-term effects on diplomacy, economics and military alliances across the Shia Muslim world.

Thanks to the political incompetence of Western politicians in Syria, Iraq and Libya, a whole new political, military and economic alliance which excludes the West, could be about to take shape over the next decade across this vast region.
Never loose sight of the fact that the disastrous war in Iraq – which facilitated a Shia takeover of the country - was based on fabricated intelligence. Without this happening Iran's Shia armies and 'volunteers' would never have had a foothold in Yemen – right next door to Saudi Arabia.
[What was a Sunni-dominated Iraqi political and military country would never have allowed this to happen.]
Saudi Arabia is on the verge of a protracted war in Yemen because of Western political incompetence in Iraq.
To understand where the politicians are now headed, you need to appreciate the disasters they have just come from – and how the mismanagement of these regional issues have created the very crises some now think they can solve – this time going to war against Iran.

Donald Trump bears no responsibility for the current quagmire, but his lack of knowledge and lack of attention to fine detail, coupled with his partiality to Zionism, is most certainly limiting his national interest considerations of the United States as opposed to those of Israel.

All such fine detail is lost amongst his supporters – fuelled as they are by emotive sound bytes rather than 'realpolitik' – which is as far away in it's meaning as it is in comprehension to all motivated by anger and fear.


©Patrick Emek, May 2018

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(the politicians only listen to their own echoes....they were not of course listening to the warnings given below....)


The New Gulf Contractors:
https://www.albawaba.com/news/mapping-erik-prince’s-private-mercenary-empire-1127822










Historical Note:
It was the Marshall Plan which financially enabled the European Coal and Steel Community to evolve, this ultimately led to the creation of the European Economic Community (EEC) [PE]


OCT 29, 2016

TASS
Russia considers 'Marshall Plan' to restore Syria

TASS
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the colossal scale of damage in the Middle East requires long-term and complex program, a sort of the Marshall Plan, to revive the region.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said the colossal scale of damage in the Middle East requires long-term and complex program, a sort of the Marshall Plan, to revive the region.


















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