Nuclear Agreement With Iran
Is There More To This Deal Than
Meets The Eye?
The Southern Caucasus-Iran-The
Caspian Sea-and the Unintended Consequences To
'Peace In Our Time'
Is this a historic mistake which the world will pay a very heavy penalty for or is it a step on the road towards permanent peace in the region and beyond?
What I want to do in this article is to look beyond the Middle East-into the next area of conflict-the Southern Caucasus and to show how this peace deal with Iran has, ironically, brought conflict in the Southern Caucasus one step closer-an unintended consequence of the historic peace. Lets look at the players:
Nagorno-Karabakh
There is one particular conflict which is a real and immediate threat to international security-and this recent deal will 'free' Iran in the near future to intensify insurgency in this area.
We have seen both Shia and Sunni (Salafist) international brigades fighting alongside local volunteers in areas which are predominantly Shia by tradition.
The Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) War between Azerbaijan and Armenia-where Iran is seeking to extend it's influence-is a historical dispute, a resources conflict, and a desperate scramble by the superpowers to control the vast wealth of the Caspian Sea region. Increased terrorism and conflicts are likely to become major flashpoints in this area in the near future Let me explain why.
Moving circular from West to North to South, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran all border an area called the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea itself is a major transit route for oil and gas pipelines.
''The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) places the potential of the Caspian Sea at 48 billion bbls of oil and 292 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. Most of the offshore oil reserves lie in the northern part of the Caspian Sea while most of the offshore natural gas lies in the southern parts of the Caspian Sea.''
''The U.S. Geological Survey (USGC) also estimated that another 20 billion bbls of oil and 243 tcf of natural gas are undiscovered at this time. Most of these undiscovered reserves lie in the South Caspian area where territorial disputes between the countries bordering it have posed a significant barrier to exploration and growth.''1
Chechnya and Dagestan
You may recall a very ferocious war in Chechnya - a Russian Province bordering Dagestan, another Russian Republic which itself adjoins the Caspian Sea (in that circular west area.) What was fueling this conflict was the prospect of breaking off Chechnya and Dagestan as independent countries so that they could negotiate access to the oil and gas reserves in parts of the Caspian Sea independent of Russia.
(While Chechnya does not border the Caspian, linked to a similar independent Dagestan, it could provide a vital safe transit corridor for oil and gas pipelines - reaching the safety of a NATO 'umbrella' in Georgia, then on out to the Mediterranean into the European Union, independent of the existing Turkish trans-Asia oil and gas 'corridor'.)
Because of the vital strategic nature of this critical region for Russia, independence was unthinkable - hence proxy wars were (and are, to a lesser extent) still being fought over access and control of huge mineral resources in this area. So the nuclear 'deal' with Iran is, in my opinion, not just about nuclear weapons but is also about the future of the Caspian Sea region for the foreseeable future.
Giving Iran a measured 'free hand' to support insurgency groups in this region will most certainly alarm Moscow as the likelihood is that the U.S. will now provide logistical support more openly than ever to rebel groups in Chechnya - via Iran. (Iran has also, historically, sought to extend it's influence north through Azerbaijan - the Baku oilfields - across the borders to Chechnya.)
So even though Azerbaijan is off limits to Iran - because of NATO presence - Chechnya and the disputed border area of Nagorno-Karabakh to the North of Iran, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, will become major flashpoints of conflict in the very near future.
As we have seen in Lebanon, Syria and North Africa, no mercy will be shown to protecting Christian communities when it comes to choosing between them and vital strategic resources - by either side.
What you must bear in mind is that these are resources wars in huge oil, gas, gold, precious and rare earth mineral - rich regions -and not what the politicians and the general media (CNN, Fox, MSNBC) will attempt to portray. The conflicts are fueled in the knowledge that oil and gas in the Middle East is running out (maybe not tomorrow-but soon) and that the Caspian Sea, the Asian gateway to oil and gas wealth for the European Union and the United States, will be the new 'El Dorado' of tomorrow.
Russian Forces in Armenia-How Will They Respond To An Attack by Azerbaijan?
Armenia, with the tacit (unofficial) support of Russia, by military force, successfully gained control over Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other Azeri provinces twenty years ago. Armenia claims these provinces are historically part of Armenia - and that it is simply retaking lands which were unjustly separated during respective periods of Persian and Ottoman conquests. There are dialects of ancient Armenian spoken in all 7 provinces and, historically, Armenia's claim is justified. In the world of realpolitik however, where oil and liquid gold are thicker than blood, it's claims have not been internationally recognized.
Some 20 years ago, when Armenia seized the 7 provinces from Azerbaijan, it had a well-funded, well-equipped and highly trained armed forces vastly superior to those of the Azeris.
Today the situation is radically different. Huge oil, gas and mineral reserves and their economic development have made Azerbaijan a phenomenally wealthy country (at least for those in control.)
It's President, Ilham Aliyev, is a strongman - not dissimilar to the late Colonel Gadhafi - and rules the country with an iron fist (in a velvet glove.) With the support of NATO, Azerbaijan has modernized it's armed forces and is outspending Armenia on the purchase of defensive, and more notably, from the United States, weapons with offensive capabilities.
To counterbalance this, Russian military forces have been upgraded in Armenia as an imminent threat of war in Russian South Caucasus security area (the soft underbelly) looms closer.
“If Azerbaijan decides to restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force the [Russian] military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the Russian Federation’s obligations within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),” Ruzinsky 12
told the Russian Defense Ministry’s “Krasnaya Zvezda” newspaper in a recent interview.
(Colonel Andrey Ruzinsky is the Senior Commander of 102nd military base, Russian Armed Forces in Armenia.) Defense Minister of Russia, Sergey Shoygu, said recently, at an urgently requested meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Zakir Hasanov, in Moscow, that the media misquoted the interview given by the Commander of [Russian] 102 military base in Armenia, to the [Russian] Military newspaper, Krasnaya Zvezda. Shoygu said that the misquote was ''probably a mistake'' (!)
In the last few months, The Russian base in Armenia, which numbers between 4,000 and 5,000 soldiers, has been upgraded with modern weaponry, reportedly including Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that Russia has already deployed combat helicopters. The Russian Air Force unit in Armenia currently has 16 MiG-29 fighter jets. [Deleted reference to Antonov An-225.
An-225 is not operated in Armenia but only used for logistical transport of civilian cargo worldwide.]
Freeing up Iran as a 'non-player' part of this anticipated conflict, is more critical to the long term economic, political and military security of the West than any misgivings the Israelis may have about doing deals with it's sworn enemy. When it comes to global politics, Israel is not a major player-if the issues do not specifically involve the interests and security of the Jewish State. (Israel does have a modest international humanitarian program.) Superpowers, on the other hand, have global responsibilities for world security which transcend emotional attachments to any one country.
So long as Iran does nothing irrational in rhetoric or actions - which is highly unlikely - the nuclear deal
with the West will provide the necessary breathing spaces for all involved.
As to 'fallout' unintended consequences for The South Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea region - the Road to Hell is usually paved with good intentions.
Patrick Emek
November 2013
1.http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/caspian-sea-asian-gateway-to-oil-wealth/
2.http://asbarez.com/115675/russian-troops-in-gyumri-will-retaliate-if-azerbaijan-attacks/
3.http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49111.htm
4.http://nisa.az/content/view/36/62/lang,en/
5.http://en.trend.az/news/politics/2189989.html
6.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nagorno-Karabakh
7.http://www.maps-world.net/central-asia.htm
8.https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&channel=np&q=russia+chechnya&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x4051d57c9d13b971:0x7faadc5dead7e13b,Chechnya,+Russia&gl=uk&ei=sTmUUpO1Oc2ThQe94oHYDg&ved=0CKgBELYD
9.https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&channel=np&q=dagestan&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x
10.http://worldwideconflicts.wordpress.com/tag/shia/
11.http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Behistun_Inscription.html
12(a)http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67712
12(b) http://www.redstar.ru/index.php/news-menu/v-armiyakh-sng/armenia/item/12045-yuzhnyj-forpost-rossii: Южный форпост России [Russia's Southern Flank]
12(b).''The military base is a mixed facility in permanent alert for immediate use . Its composition represents major combat units and 17 units of comprehensive support . Such volume forces are at a high state of readiness to successfully meet its mandated tasks. I
should add that the fighting strength of the HDR feature in Armenia is
antiaircraft missile battalion equipped air defense system " S-300B "
anti-aircraft missile battalion armed with SAM which stands BUK -M1-2 ,
rocket artillery battery "Tornado" and the air base with a squadron of
combat MiG-29 aircraft . The
entire amount of forces and assets based in two dozen cantonments two
garrisons.''
13(a). Aryan Armenians:
(Please note that the word 'Aryan' has been misappropriated by European civilization and used
for evil purposes. It's origin is, in fact, Sanskrit (India). Aryan (ārya) in ancient Sanskrit, it's native origin,
means 'one who does noble deeds'.)
The name 'Armenia' appears on ancient Persian Behistun rock inscription as 'Armina'.
In native Armenian it is also known as 'Hayk'. Patrick Emek 2013 )
13(b). Historical Reference:
History to 114 AD:
The ancestors of the present Armenians (who call themselves Chaik'h, i.e. Pati-s, "Lords") may have settled in the country in the 8th century BC, when Sargon mentions a king of part of Armenia who bore the Aryan name Bagadatti (= Theodore). They came from Phrygia (Herod. vii.73), used the Phrygian dress and armor (Dion. of Halicarnassus; Eudoxius; Herod.) and spoke the same language (Herod. i.171). In the Bible they are called the "House of Togarmah" (Genesis 10:3; 1 Chronicles 1:6; Ezekiel 27:14; 38:6) and "Ashkenaz" (Genesis 10:3; 1 Chronicles 1:6; Jeremiah 51:27; the Assyrian Ashguza), as by their own writers of later times. Xenophon in the Cyropedia mentions a Median conquest of Armenia, Strabo their Median attire; yet Armenian girls could not understand Xenophon's Persian interpreter (Anab. iv.5). Three of the four Armenians mentioned by Darius have Aryan names. The Armenians joined the Median noble Fravartish in his revolt against Darius I (519 BC). Much of the consequent fighting took place in Armenia, which was with difficulty subdued (517). It formed part of Darius' thirteenth Nome, and afterward two satrapies (apparently Armenia Major and Minor). The government (of Armenia Major) was made hereditary in the family of Vidarna (Hydarnes) for helping to put down Fravartish. Xenophon's interesting description of the country and people and the severity of its winters is well known.
Herodotus tells of Armenians in skin and wicker-work coracles bringing wine, etc., to Babylon. Xenophon says they and the Chaldeans traded with India. Strabo mentions their caravan trade across central Asia. The satrap of Armenia had to present 20,000 young horses annually to the king of Persia at the great annual festival of Mithra. A large body of Armenian soldiers served in Xerxes' invasion of Greece. At the battle of Arbela (331 BC), 40,000 of their infantry and 7,000 cavalry took part. Armenia then became a portion of Alexander's empire, and later of that of Seleucus (301 BC), under a native satrap, Artavasdes. Armenia revolted after Antiochus' defeat at Magnesia (190 BC), and the Romans encouraged the two satraps to declare themselves kings. Artaxias, king of Armenia Major, used Hannibal's aid in fortifying his capital Artaxata (189 BC). Artaxias was overthrown by Antiochus Epiphanes in 165, but was restored on swearing allegiance. Civil confusion ensued. The nobles called in the Parthians under Mithridates I (150 BC), who became master of the whole Persian empire. He made his brother Valarsaces king of Armenia. Thus the Arsacide dynasty was established in that country and lasted till the fall of the Parthian empire (226 AD), the Armenian kings very generally recognizing the Parthian monarchs as their suzerains.
The greatest Armenian king was Tigranes I. (96-55 BC), a warrior who raised Armenia for a time to the foremost position in Asia. He humbled the Parthians, joined Mithridates VI in war with Rome, ruled Syria for over 14 years, built near Mardin as his capital Tigranocerta, and assumed the Assyrio-Persian title of "King of Kings." Lucullus defeated Tigranes and destroyed Tigranocerta in 69 BC. Tigranes surrendered to Pompey near Artaxata (66 BC), paid 6,000 talents, and retained only Armenia. Under him Greek art and literature flourished in the country. Armenia as a subjectally of Rome became a "buffer state" between the Roman and Parthian empires. Tigranes' son and successor Artevasdes joined in the Parthian invasion of Syria after Crassus' overthrow at Sinnaca 53 BC. He treacherously caused great loss to Antony's army in 36 BC. Antony carried him in chains to Egypt, where Cleopatra put him to death in 32 BC. After this, Armenia long remained subject to the Romans whenever not strong enough to join the Parthians, suffering much from intrigues and the jealousy of both powers. There is no proof of the later Armenian story that Armenia was subject to Abgarus, king of Edessa, in our Lord's time, and that the gospel was preached there by Thaddaeus, though the latter point is possible. In 66 AD, Tiridates, elder brother of the Parthian king Vologeses, having defeated the Romans under Paetus and established himself on the throne of Armenia, went by land to Rome and received investiture from Nero. Peace between Rome and Parthia ensued, and Armenia remained closely united to Parthia till Trajan's expedition in 114 AD.
_LITERATURE._
Spiegel, Altpers. Keilinschriften; Herodotus; Xenophon; Arrian; Tacitus; Velleius Patroculus; Livy; Polybius; Ammianus Marcellinus.
W. St. Clair Tisdall
Copyright Statement
These files are public domain.
Bibliography Information
Orr, James, M.A., D.D. General Editor. "Entry for 'ARMENIA'". "International Standard Bible Encyclopedia". 1915.
14.http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/the-road-to-hell-is-paved-with-good-intentions.html