The Day After Tomorrow

Distopia

I said several years ago that President Erdogan was a 'loose cannon' and it was only a matter of time before he alienated the military and secular Turkey through his Salafist-Wahhabist agenda.

As hopes of utilizing the services of Daesh to exterminate the Kurds in Syria and Iraq and use it as an excuse for internal crackdowns on secular parties within Turkey itself all begin to fade, he, Erdogan, as a demagogue, will become more and more unpredictable.

His first reaction to impending defeat in the debacle of his own making - Syria - is likely to be an attempt to bully and coerce the military to continue to do his bidding for an all-out invasion, with assistance from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States, of Syria.

As to how the Turkish military will respond to such blackmail has yet to be assessed – but the outcome does not look promising for Erdogan.

Sitting On The Fence

There are many reasons the Turkish military will be reluctant to be drawn into a protracted civil war in Syria.

The first is the now high uncertainty of the outcome – with a major superpower – The Russian Federation – heavily committed to defending Syrian sovereignty – a very risky strategy for Erdogan where the United States is reluctant to be blindly 'led by the nose' into support for Turkey now that it fully appreciates his agenda has no coherence, is fostering and spereading extremism, anarchy and chaos, solely to further the objective of a 'greater' Turkey – and at the expense of Western European security and social cohesion.

Secondly, a defeat in Syria could conceivably strengthen the PKK to the extent that Turkey find itself simultaneously at war, on a large scale, solely to prevent the creation of a greater Kurdistan.

(This prospect is in no regional country's interest, least of all that of Turkey, but Erdogan's military adventures are creating the very conditions which he purports to be acting to contain.)

At the Gates of Vienna

Thirdly, Erdogan has already shown the 'iron fist within the velvet glove' to the European Union – 'you do as I say or I will unleash Muslim refugees in their tens of thousands to create chaos within your European territories.'

The initial alarm, and reaction, of the European Union was to attempt to 'buy off' Erdogan.

History has shown that such a policy is ultimately doomed to failure - but sadly, we have few politicians who understand the implications of past historical dealings with Turkey, when it acts as a resurgent Islamic - military power in the region.

The countries in the direct firing line – Greece, Macedonia, Hungary, The Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Austria, understand only too well where such blackmail will lead – and all countries are being villified and marginalized by a Brussels political elite,who, while cognizant of public sentiment, see central (and Southern) Europe as both compliant (and ultimately expendable) in the greater scheme of crises management.

Erdogan, through both miscalculation and fanatical expansionist ambitions, all routed in the same twisted versions of Islam which has caused such destruction and misery throughout the region and in North Africa, has no sympathy for a Christian Europe which effectively rejected Turkey as a member and has, in my opinion, decided to undermine it's foundations utilizing a new 'army of Islam' to 'invade' Europe.

All of the above is beyond the grasp of most innocent Muslim refugees who are simply being used as pawns to further long-term objectives of an expansionist Salafist-Wahhabist Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Night Of The Long Knives

Military defeats in Syria will provide President Erdogan with a further opportunity to purge the Turkish armed forces of 'disloyal' senior officers and replace them with Salafist-Wahhabist staff who are under his personal control and will do his bidding, unquestioningly.

Cerberus

The Turkish military, as guardians of secular Turkey since the days of Atatürk, are all that stands between chaos in Europe and civil war in Turkey itself.

As to how long the Turkish armed forces will stay on the sidelines (out of politics) remains to be seen – but events are happening so quickly on the Syrian front that they may, reluctantly, be forced to take action to save both Turkey and the entire region from a war which will, almost certainly, engulf and expand into a very long drawn out war and one which will, for sure, destroy the Turkish economy and plunge Turkey itself into a civil war.

'The Donald' -

and His Appeal To Middle America

A problem that we have today in Europe and in the United States (and this is the only point where I agree with Donald Trump) is that all our Western politicians are 'in somebody's pocket', incapable of taking decisions without referral to 'special interest' groups – and as such rendering them all ineffective and hamstrung in matters of decisive foreign policy to safeguard the security interests of their own individual countries – especially the United States - as opposed to foreign 'special interest' groups – whose bidding they do and who 'pull' their financial purse strings.

In addition to this, the foreign policy initiatives of politicians in the United States, the European Union and its allies are very short-sighted with no long-term planning nor thought about 'the day after tomorrow.' This, in many respects, as much mirrors their own tenure of political office as it does the requirement to justify failed interventionist policies to confused and frustrated electorates throughout Europe - as mainstream media reports of 'successes' and the 'democratization' of hitherto 'tyrannies' in the Arab world bear absolutely no reality to what is, in actual effect, happening on the ground.

Hence public frustration and the rise of extremist political parties which provide their own 'answers' to the political, policy and military failures of discredited democratic politicians throughout Western Europe.

Salvation

Ironically, it may well be action, through domestic intervention, of the Turkish military which will ultimately save the European Union from plunging further into an abyss of political anarchy, social chaos and halt the rise of fascism and neo-Nazism throughout Christendom.

©Patrick Emek, February 2016