Nuclear Agreement With Iran
Is There More To This Deal Than
Meets The Eye?
The Southern Caucasus-Iran-The
Caspian Sea-and the Unintended Consequences To
'Peace In Our Time'
In a historic development,The European Union and The United
States have reached agreement with Iran with regard to it's right to
develop nuclear technology and enrich uranium.
Is this a historic mistake which the world will pay a very heavy
penalty for or is it a step on the road towards permanent peace in
the region and beyond?
What I want to do in this article is to look beyond the Middle East-into the next area of conflict-the Southern Caucasus and to show how this peace deal with Iran has, ironically, brought conflict in the Southern Caucasus one step closer-an unintended consequence of the historic peace. Lets look at the players:
Nagorno-Karabakh
There is one particular conflict which is a real and immediate
threat to international security-and this recent deal will 'free'
Iran in the near future to intensify insurgency in this area.
We have seen both
Shia and Sunni (Salafist) international brigades fighting alongside
local volunteers in areas which are predominantly Shia by tradition.
The Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) War between Azerbaijan and Armenia-where
Iran is seeking to extend it's influence-is a historical dispute, a resources conflict, and a desperate scramble by the superpowers to control the vast wealth of the Caspian Sea region. Increased terrorism and
conflicts are likely to become major flashpoints in this area in the
near future Let me explain why.
Moving circular from West to North to South, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan and Iran all border an area called the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea itself is a major transit route for oil and gas
pipelines.
''The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) places the potential of the Caspian Sea at 48 billion bbls of oil and 292 trillion cubic
feet (tcf) of natural gas. Most of the offshore oil reserves lie in
the northern part of the Caspian Sea while most of the offshore
natural gas lies in the southern parts of the Caspian Sea.''
''The U.S. Geological Survey (USGC) also estimated that another 20
billion bbls of oil and 243 tcf of natural gas are undiscovered at
this time. Most of these undiscovered reserves lie in the South
Caspian area where territorial disputes between the countries bordering it have posed a significant
barrier to exploration and growth.''
1
Chechnya and Dagestan
You may recall a very ferocious war in Chechnya - a Russian Province
bordering Dagestan, another Russian Republic which itself adjoins the Caspian Sea (in that
circular west area.) What was fueling this conflict was the prospect
of breaking off Chechnya and Dagestan as independent countries so
that they could negotiate access to the oil and gas reserves in parts
of the Caspian Sea independent of Russia.
(While Chechnya does not border the Caspian, linked to a similar independent Dagestan, it could provide a vital safe transit corridor for oil and gas pipelines - reaching the safety of a NATO 'umbrella' in Georgia, then on out to the Mediterranean into the European Union, independent of the existing Turkish trans-Asia oil and gas 'corridor'.)
Because of the vital
strategic nature of this critical region for Russia, independence was
unthinkable - hence proxy wars were (and are, to a lesser extent) still
being fought over access and control of huge mineral resources in
this area. So the nuclear 'deal' with Iran
is, in my opinion, not just about
nuclear weapons but is also about the future of the Caspian Sea region for the foreseeable future.
Giving Iran
a measured 'free hand' to support insurgency groups in this region will most certainly alarm Moscow as the
likelihood is that the U.S. will now provide logistical support
more openly than ever to rebel groups in Chechnya - via Iran. (Iran has also, historically, sought to
extend it's influence north through Azerbaijan - the Baku oilfields -
across the borders to Chechnya.)
So even though Azerbaijan is off limits to Iran - because of NATO
presence - Chechnya and the disputed border area of Nagorno-Karabakh to the North of Iran,
between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, will become major flashpoints of conflict in
the very near future.
As we have seen in Lebanon, Syria and North Africa, no mercy will be shown to protecting
Christian communities when it comes to choosing between them and
vital strategic resources - by either side.
What you must bear in mind is that these are resources wars in
huge oil, gas, gold, precious and rare earth mineral - rich regions -and
not what the politicians and the general media (CNN, Fox, MSNBC) will
attempt to portray. The conflicts are fueled in the knowledge that oil and
gas in the Middle East is running out (maybe not tomorrow-but soon) and that the Caspian Sea, the Asian gateway to oil and gas wealth for the
European Union and the United States, will be the new 'El Dorado' of tomorrow.
Russian Forces in Armenia-How Will They Respond To An Attack by
Azerbaijan?
Armenia, with the tacit (unofficial) support of Russia, by military force,
successfully gained control over
Nagorno-Karabakh
and seven other Azeri provinces twenty years ago. Armenia claims
these provinces are historically part of Armenia - and that it is simply
retaking lands which were unjustly separated during respective
periods of Persian and Ottoman conquests. There are dialects of
ancient Armenian spoken in all 7 provinces and, historically,
Armenia's claim is justified. In the world of realpolitik however, where
oil and liquid gold are thicker than blood, it's claims have not been
internationally recognized.
Some
20 years ago, when Armenia seized the 7 provinces from Azerbaijan, it
had a well-funded, well-equipped and highly trained armed forces
vastly superior to those of the Azeris.
Today
the situation is radically different. Huge oil, gas and mineral
reserves and their economic development have made Azerbaijan a phenomenally
wealthy country (at least for those in control.)
It's
President, Ilham Aliyev, is a strongman - not dissimilar to the late
Colonel Gadhafi - and rules the country with an iron fist (in a velvet
glove.) With the support of NATO, Azerbaijan has modernized it's
armed forces and is outspending Armenia on the purchase of defensive,
and more notably, from the United States, weapons with offensive
capabilities.
To
counterbalance this, Russian military forces have been upgraded in
Armenia as an imminent threat of war in Russian South Caucasus
security area (the soft underbelly) looms closer.
“If Azerbaijan decides to
restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force the [Russian]
military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the
Russian Federation’s obligations within the framework of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),” Ruzinsky 12
told the
Russian Defense Ministry’s “Krasnaya Zvezda” newspaper in a
recent interview.
(Colonel Andrey Ruzinsky is the Senior Commander of 102nd military base, Russian Armed Forces in Armenia.) Defense Minister of Russia, Sergey Shoygu, said recently, at an urgently requested meeting with
his Azerbaijani counterpart, Zakir Hasanov, in Moscow, that the media
misquoted the interview given by the Commander of [Russian] 102 military base in Armenia, to the [Russian] Military newspaper, Krasnaya Zvezda. Shoygu said that the misquote was ''probably a mistake'' (!)
In
the last few months, The Russian base in Armenia, which numbers between 4,000
and 5,000 soldiers, has been upgraded with modern weaponry,
reportedly including Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles.
Unconfirmed
reports suggest that Russia has already deployed combat helicopters.
The Russian Air Force unit in Armenia currently has 16 MiG-29 fighter
jets. [Deleted reference to Antonov An-225.
An-225 is not operated in Armenia but only used for logistical transport of civilian cargo worldwide.]
Freeing
up Iran as a 'non-player' part of this anticipated conflict, is more
critical to the long term economic, political and military security
of the West than any misgivings the Israelis may have about doing
deals with it's sworn enemy. When
it comes to global politics, Israel is not a major player-if the
issues do not specifically involve the
interests and security of the Jewish State. (Israel does have a modest international humanitarian program.) Superpowers, on the other hand, have
global responsibilities for world security which transcend emotional
attachments to any one country.
So
long as Iran does nothing irrational in rhetoric or actions - which is
highly unlikely - the nuclear deal
with
the West will provide the necessary breathing spaces for all
involved.
As
to 'fallout' unintended consequences for The South
Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea region - the Road to Hell is usually
paved with good intentions.
Patrick
Emek
November
2013
1.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/caspian-sea-asian-gateway-to-oil-wealth/
2.
http://asbarez.com/115675/russian-troops-in-gyumri-will-retaliate-if-azerbaijan-attacks/
3.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49111.htm
4.
http://nisa.az/content/view/36/62/lang,en/
5.
http://en.trend.az/news/politics/2189989.html
6.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nagorno-Karabakh
7.
http://www.maps-world.net/central-asia.htm
8.
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&channel=np&q=russia+chechnya&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x4051d57c9d13b971:0x7faadc5dead7e13b,Chechnya,+Russia&gl=uk&ei=sTmUUpO1Oc2ThQe94oHYDg&ved=0CKgBELYD
9.
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&channel=np&q=dagestan&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x
10.
http://worldwideconflicts.wordpress.com/tag/shia/
11.http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Behistun_Inscription.html
12(a)http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67712
12(b)
http://www.redstar.ru/index.php/news-menu/v-armiyakh-sng/armenia/item/12045-yuzhnyj-forpost-rossii: Южный форпост России [Russia's Southern Flank]
12(b).''The military base is a mixed facility in permanent alert for immediate use . Its composition represents major combat units and 17 units of comprehensive support . Such volume forces are at a high state of readiness to successfully meet its mandated tasks. I
should add that the fighting strength of the HDR feature in Armenia is
antiaircraft missile battalion equipped air defense system " S-300B "
anti-aircraft missile battalion armed with SAM which stands BUK -M1-2 ,
rocket artillery battery "Tornado" and the air base with a squadron of
combat MiG-29 aircraft . The
entire amount of forces and assets based in two dozen cantonments two
garrisons.''
13(a). Aryan Armenians:
(Please note that the word 'Aryan' has been misappropriated by European civilization and used
for evil purposes. It's origin is, in fact, Sanskrit (India). Aryan
(ārya) in ancient Sanskrit, it's native origin,
means 'one who does noble deeds'.)
The name 'Armenia' appears on ancient Persian Behistun rock inscription as 'Armina'.
In native Armenian it is also known as 'Hayk'. Patrick Emek 2013 )
13(b). Historical Reference:
History to 114 AD:
The ancestors of the present Armenians (who call themselves
Chaik'h, i.e. Pati-s, "Lords") may have settled in the country in the
8th century BC, when Sargon mentions a king of part of Armenia who bore
the Aryan name Bagadatti (= Theodore). They came from Phrygia (Herod.
vii.73), used the Phrygian dress and armor (Dion. of Halicarnassus;
Eudoxius; Herod.) and spoke the same language (Herod. i.171). In the
Bible they are called the "House of Togarmah" (
Genesis 10:3;
1 Chronicles 1:6;
Ezekiel 27:14;
38:6) and "Ashkenaz" (
Genesis 10:3;
1 Chronicles 1:6;
Jeremiah 51:27;
the Assyrian Ashguza), as by their own writers of later times. Xenophon
in the Cyropedia mentions a Median conquest of Armenia, Strabo their
Median attire; yet Armenian girls could not understand Xenophon's
Persian interpreter (Anab. iv.5). Three of the four Armenians mentioned
by Darius have Aryan names. The Armenians joined the Median noble
Fravartish in his revolt against Darius I (519 BC). Much of the
consequent fighting took place in Armenia, which was with difficulty
subdued (517). It formed part of Darius' thirteenth Nome, and afterward
two satrapies (apparently Armenia Major and Minor). The government (of
Armenia Major) was made hereditary in the family of Vidarna (Hydarnes)
for helping to put down Fravartish. Xenophon's interesting description
of the country and people and the severity of its winters is well known.
Herodotus tells of Armenians in skin and wicker-work coracles
bringing wine, etc., to Babylon. Xenophon says they and the Chaldeans
traded with India. Strabo mentions their caravan trade across central
Asia. The satrap of Armenia had to present 20,000 young horses annually
to the king of Persia at the great annual festival of Mithra. A large
body of Armenian soldiers served in Xerxes' invasion of Greece. At the
battle of Arbela (331 BC), 40,000 of their infantry and 7,000 cavalry
took part. Armenia then became a portion of Alexander's empire, and
later of that of Seleucus (301 BC), under a native satrap, Artavasdes.
Armenia revolted after Antiochus' defeat at Magnesia (190 BC), and the
Romans encouraged the two satraps to declare themselves kings. Artaxias,
king of Armenia Major, used Hannibal's aid in fortifying his capital
Artaxata (189 BC). Artaxias was overthrown by Antiochus Epiphanes in
165, but was restored on swearing allegiance. Civil confusion ensued.
The nobles called in the Parthians under Mithridates I (150 BC), who
became master of the whole Persian empire. He made his brother
Valarsaces king of Armenia. Thus the Arsacide dynasty was established in
that country and lasted till the fall of the Parthian empire (226 AD),
the Armenian kings very generally recognizing the Parthian monarchs as
their suzerains.
The greatest Armenian king was Tigranes I. (96-55 BC), a warrior
who raised Armenia for a time to the foremost position in Asia. He
humbled the Parthians, joined Mithridates VI in war with Rome, ruled
Syria for over 14 years, built near Mardin as his capital Tigranocerta,
and assumed the Assyrio-Persian title of "King of Kings." Lucullus
defeated Tigranes and destroyed Tigranocerta in 69 BC. Tigranes
surrendered to Pompey near Artaxata (66 BC), paid 6,000 talents, and
retained only Armenia. Under him Greek art and literature flourished in
the country. Armenia as a subjectally of Rome became a "buffer state"
between the Roman and Parthian empires. Tigranes' son and successor
Artevasdes joined in the Parthian invasion of Syria after Crassus'
overthrow at Sinnaca 53 BC. He treacherously caused great loss to
Antony's army in 36 BC. Antony carried him in chains to Egypt, where
Cleopatra put him to death in 32 BC. After this, Armenia long remained
subject to the Romans whenever not strong enough to join the Parthians,
suffering much from intrigues and the jealousy of both powers. There is
no proof of the later Armenian story that Armenia was subject to
Abgarus, king of Edessa, in our Lord's time, and that the gospel was
preached there by Thaddaeus, though the latter point is possible. In 66
AD, Tiridates, elder brother of the Parthian king Vologeses, having
defeated the Romans under Paetus and established himself on the throne
of Armenia, went by land to Rome and received investiture from Nero.
Peace between Rome and Parthia ensued, and Armenia remained closely
united to Parthia till Trajan's expedition in 114 AD.
_LITERATURE._
Spiegel, Altpers. Keilinschriften; Herodotus; Xenophon; Arrian;
Tacitus; Velleius Patroculus; Livy; Polybius; Ammianus Marcellinus.
W. St. Clair Tisdall
Copyright Statement
These files are public domain.
Bibliography Information
Orr, James, M.A., D.D. General Editor. "Entry for 'ARMENIA'". "International Standard Bible Encyclopedia". 1915.
14.http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/the-road-to-hell-is-paved-with-good-intentions.html