Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Caliphates and Emirates-World Futureshock


    
         Caliphates and Emirates-World Futureshock
About 6-8 years ago I was asked by a major television network to 'paint' the face of Islam under extremism (that is to say, the 'vision' Islamic Jihadi groups have for the world.) That world news network extrapolated what I had said in words onto a (visual) 'world map'-showing quite accurately what Al-Qaeda and their sub-contracted groups had in mind - to create an Islamic Empire consisting of Emirates and Caliphates, as I had described them and as such were projected to evolve. As usual I was something of an embarrassment (the network was probably told not to follow-up and quietly drop the alarmist rhetoric of the world as I described it potentially emerging under a resurgent Islam.) I don't profess to always get it right but, in this case, I was 'right on the money'. [This is why I have empathy with individuals whom, for their own personal reasons, are not within the 'system' (of eminent think-tanks nor corporate industry nor government) but who nonetheless have have enough experience in their field to be able to accurately see how trends are evolving and are not constrained to express their views independently of government, institutions and corporations.]
Futureworld
Now that Islamic extremism is becoming mainstream in the Middle East we are now too war-weary and unlikely to go back with overwhelming force into the chaos today called Iraq and Afghanistan, I want to look at how we should be thinking of interacting with Emirates and Caliphates which stretch from The Southern Philippines, through Malaysia, Iraq, the Gulf States, through Afghanistan-Pakistan (border tribal regions) through to the parts of Kurdistan which straddle Iraq, Syria and Turkey in the Levant and across to Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.  With regard to the latter, I am looking beyond possibly decades of Islamic Jihadi (Muslim Brotherhood-Al-Qaeda linked) insurgency against the al-Sisi regime before these Caliphates emerge as a unitary entity.

''Just Get Used To It''
Several years ago I asked a prominent politician how do you 'adjust' to an an emerging China as a super-giant.  His answer was quite interesting and equally profound: 'Well Patrick I suppose you just have to get used to it.'   In much the same way as we have adjusted to China being both a vital economic partner while at the same time, a potential enemy or, at the very least, a primary key  rival, in the battle for global resources, military and economic global governance, so too it might be well worth our while seeing what economic and other areas we might find common ground to pursue within such Emirates and Caliphates so as not to create economic and military vacuums – which other superpower rivals will most willingly occupy.

Islamic Banking
Islamic banking is probably the easiest to adjust to – and one which both the Christian West and Emirates-Caliphates can equally agree.

International Trade and Commerce
Again here is no reason why religious differences should interrupt the flow of trade and commerce between willing partners.

Religious Tolerance
The repression of Christianity within such Emirates and Caliphates is likely to mean that Christian Europe and the Christian Americas will not be well disposed toward the continued expansion of Islam within the Christian world. Such will be an inevitable consequence of the (likely) widespread discrimination and repression of Christians under such Islamic regimes. The likely scenario in these Emirates and Caliphates will be, as it exists in Saudi Arabia today, that it is a criminal offence (for a native Saudi) to be anything other than a Muslim, illegal to build Christian Churches (on the grounds of heresy) and (as in Saudi Arabia) that such heretics are subject to capital punishment (the death penalty.)  On such matters it is unlikely that there will be few grounds for understanding.  The likely scenario is that, in the interests of trade and commerce, as currently takes place with Saudi Arabia for example, such matters will go, for the most part, unreported in the mainstream Western media, on the grounds of national (economic) security. Such reporting could also be construed as promoting racial or religious hatred but in any event, whether voluntary or otherwise, the fate of Christians in such lands has already been discounted in favor of trade and commerce. That's the harsh reality. In many respects such Christian communities will be portrayed to be 'leftovers' of imperial and other European empires over the millennia about whose ultimate fate, well, it does not really concern us but is the ultimate responsibility of their 'new' political (and religious) masters. I already saw this happening with the Syrian Christians in the run-up to (what was anticipated by others to be) U.S. intervention to topple the Assad regime whose minority Shia (Alawite) community were being 'painted' as minority ' lackeys', inferior, and 'out of touch' with reality.) The objective was to demonize Assad prior to invasion. Let me be clear about something here: Assad himself is a very ugly character running a tyrannical terror state where, before the uprising, you were murdered by the Secret Police just for expressing opposition to his regime. The problem however is that what was intended to replace him-Al-Qaeda- was infinitely a worse enemy of the The United States and the West than the terror regime we already knew1. Apart from everything else, Assad's intended successors were directly responsible for the murder of thousands of Americans on American soil and the murder of  U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and his Staff in Libya.
In addition to those Personnel killed by the butchers of Benghazi, others sustained terrible injuries from which they will never fully recover.

Mutiny and Military Cooperation
When President Obama was advised that mutiny within the ranks of the Armed Forces serving in Syria could not be ruled out if the President followed an (essentially Republican) agenda (which would place U.S. troops conceivably, nominally, under the command of Al-Qaeda, or, at the very least, fighting to support them) and, apart from anything else, it would most certainly become President Obama's 'Vietnam' (with the President facing a stark and certain electoral defeat – similar to that of a historical predecessor), sanity prevailed. You don't have to go to war abroad to win a general election - but sometimes it helps (!) There are many reasons why it is improbable that high level military and intelligence cooperation will exist in such a future world but such 'splendid isolation' could dramatically change overnight if these Islamic entities were faced with a common enemy – or where the support of the Christian West was vital to their very survival or stability or to the flow of strategic resources either exiting or transiting Caliphates or Emirates.

Dual Purpose Technology (Nuclear and Chemical-Biological)
Someone will make a quick buck in the future supplying such technology to Emirates and Caliphates-probably France, China, Pakistan or North Korea or all four countries. Generally speaking I would see many difficulties supplying advanced techniques to such regimes – but I do not profess to be able to read the mind of corporate America where the balance sheet is the final consideration.
[I am of course being highly cynical here.  There may well be strategic implications in such a future world which would mitigate in favor of the supply of dual technology to such Islamic regimes, despite all misgivings.]

Social and Cultural Cooperation
Highly unlikely. Even in so called 'progressive' Muslim countries in the Middle East and in the Gulf the trend is towards ultra-Conservatism. For example, Mosques are being specially built to 'placate' foreigners who visit or work in such countries and want to see where Muslims 'pray'. A sort of Muslim 'Disney World' or 'Disneyland' especially created for foreigners so that they will go home with a 'good impression' of Islam2. Under pressure from Imams, Muslim girls are now forbidden to 'shake hands' or even 'hug' in greeting Western women on the grounds that such practice is 'unIslamic' and that they (Western Women) are 'unclean'2. I recently read an article in a British Newspaper that Muslim schools in the United Kingdom teach that all Western (Christian) women are 'unclean' and are 'whores and prostitutes'. This philosophy was being indoctrinated to children as young as six years of age3.  The United Kingdom government had known about this for at least one decade (and possibly longer) but chose not to do anything in the interests of not wishing to upset good community relations. I was aware of extremism within the Muslim Schools communities in the United Kingdom but never imagined something as disgraceful as this could be happening – with the apparent tacit knowledge of the authorities, for some considerable period of time. I would go even further and suggest that over several decades in the United States and in Europe such extremist organizations have secretly infiltrated individuals into bodies (trusts and other organizations) which have considerable financial resources and have ensured that such extremist groups, colleges and schools have been well resourced and funded to carry out their 'evangelical' work. These then are the reasons I do not foresee a high degree of social and cultural cooperation between the emerging Emirates and Caliphates and the Christian world as a whole.

Global Survival In the 'New Age' of Islamic Extremism and NeoConservatism
Whether we agree with their philosophies or not, co-existence should, wherever possible, and practicable, continue to be the order of the day, to foster continuity in the areas of trade and international commerce. Equally, Emirates and Caliphates will also have to make painful choices if they intend to partake and interact with the non-Muslim world in any meaningful and mutually beneficial ways.
I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic with regard to this future world. So many times in the past I have thought that sheer 'common sense' would be the order of the day.  How could it be otherwise?  However, for so long as humans base their strategies on religious, political and economic (financial), racial, ethnic, tribal and clan doctrines, 'common sense' often just flies straight out the window – or indeed through it, shattering all the glass in the process.


Patrick Emek

revised typographical corrections on 28th September, 2014



2 unattributable source
see wikipedia speaking terms:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unattributable#.22Speaking_terms.22




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