Caliphates
and Emirates-World Futureshock
About 6-8 years ago I was asked by a
major television network to 'paint' the face of Islam under extremism
(that is to say, the 'vision' Islamic Jihadi groups have for the
world.) That world news network extrapolated what I had said in words
onto a (visual) 'world map'-showing quite accurately what Al-Qaeda
and their sub-contracted groups had in mind - to create an Islamic
Empire consisting of Emirates and Caliphates, as I had described them
and as such were projected to evolve. As usual I was something of an
embarrassment (the network was probably told not to follow-up and
quietly drop the alarmist rhetoric of the world as I described it
potentially emerging under a resurgent Islam.) I don't profess to
always get it right but, in this case, I was 'right on the money'.
[This is why I have empathy with individuals whom, for their own
personal reasons, are not within the 'system' (of eminent think-tanks
nor corporate industry nor government) but who nonetheless have have
enough experience in their field to be able to accurately see how
trends are evolving and are not constrained to express their views
independently of government, institutions and corporations.]
Futureworld
Now that Islamic extremism is becoming
mainstream in the Middle East we are now too war-weary and unlikely
to go back with overwhelming force into the chaos today called Iraq
and Afghanistan, I want to look at how we should be thinking of
interacting with Emirates and Caliphates which stretch from The
Southern Philippines, through Malaysia, Iraq, the Gulf States,
through Afghanistan-Pakistan (border tribal regions) through to the
parts of Kurdistan which straddle Iraq, Syria and Turkey in the
Levant and across to Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.
With regard to the latter, I am looking beyond possibly decades of
Islamic Jihadi (Muslim Brotherhood-Al-Qaeda linked) insurgency
against the al-Sisi regime before these Caliphates emerge as a
unitary entity.
''Just
Get Used To It''
Several years ago I asked a prominent
politician how do you 'adjust' to an an emerging China as a
super-giant. His answer was quite interesting and equally
profound: 'Well Patrick I suppose you just have to get used to it.'
In much the same way as we have adjusted to China being both a vital
economic partner while at the same time, a potential enemy or, at the
very least, a primary key rival, in the battle for global
resources, military and economic global governance, so too it might
be well worth our while seeing what economic and other areas we might
find common ground to pursue within such Emirates and Caliphates so
as not to create economic and military vacuums – which other
superpower rivals will most willingly occupy.
Islamic Banking
Islamic banking is probably the easiest
to adjust to – and one which both the Christian West and
Emirates-Caliphates can equally agree.
International
Trade and Commerce
Again
here is no reason why religious differences should interrupt the flow
of trade and commerce between willing partners.
Religious Tolerance
The repression of Christianity within
such Emirates and Caliphates is likely to mean that Christian Europe
and the Christian Americas will not be well disposed toward the
continued expansion of Islam within the Christian world. Such will be
an inevitable consequence of the (likely) widespread discrimination
and repression of Christians under such Islamic regimes. The likely
scenario in these Emirates and Caliphates will be, as it exists in
Saudi Arabia today, that it is a criminal offence (for a native
Saudi) to be anything other than a Muslim, illegal to build Christian
Churches (on the grounds of heresy) and (as in Saudi Arabia) that
such heretics are subject to capital punishment (the death penalty.)
On such matters it is unlikely that there will be few grounds for
understanding. The likely scenario is that, in the interests of
trade and commerce, as currently takes place with Saudi Arabia for
example, such matters will go, for the most part, unreported in the
mainstream Western media, on the grounds of national (economic)
security. Such reporting could also be construed as promoting racial
or religious hatred but in any event, whether voluntary or otherwise,
the fate of Christians in such lands has already been discounted in
favor of trade and commerce. That's the harsh reality. In many
respects such Christian communities will be portrayed to be
'leftovers' of imperial and other European empires over the millennia
about whose ultimate fate, well, it does not really concern us but is
the ultimate responsibility of their 'new' political (and religious)
masters. I already saw this happening with the Syrian Christians in
the run-up to (what was anticipated by others to be) U.S.
intervention to topple the Assad regime whose minority Shia (Alawite)
community were being 'painted' as minority ' lackeys', inferior, and 'out
of touch' with reality.) The objective was to demonize Assad prior to
invasion. Let me be clear about something here: Assad himself is a very ugly
character running a tyrannical terror state where, before the
uprising, you were murdered by the Secret Police just for expressing
opposition to his regime. The problem however is that what was
intended to replace him-Al-Qaeda- was infinitely a worse enemy of the
The United States and the West than the terror regime we already
knew1. Apart from everything else, Assad's intended
successors were directly responsible for the murder of thousands of
Americans on American soil and the murder of U.S. Ambassador
Christopher Stevens and his Staff in Libya.
In addition to those Personnel killed by the butchers of Benghazi, others sustained terrible injuries from which they will never fully recover.
Mutiny and Military
Cooperation
When President Obama was advised that
mutiny within the ranks of the Armed Forces serving in Syria could
not be ruled out if the President followed an (essentially
Republican) agenda (which would place U.S. troops conceivably,
nominally, under the command of Al-Qaeda, or, at the very least,
fighting to support them) and, apart from anything else, it would most
certainly become President Obama's 'Vietnam' (with the President
facing a stark and certain electoral defeat – similar to that of a
historical predecessor), sanity prevailed. You don't have to go to
war abroad to win a general election - but sometimes it helps (!) There
are many reasons why it is improbable that high level military and intelligence
cooperation will exist in such a future world but such 'splendid isolation' could
dramatically change overnight if these Islamic entities were faced
with a common enemy – or where the support of the Christian West
was vital to their very survival or stability or to the flow of strategic resources either exiting or transiting Caliphates or Emirates.
Dual
Purpose Technology (Nuclear and Chemical-Biological)
Someone will
make a quick buck in the future supplying such technology to Emirates
and Caliphates-probably France, China, Pakistan or North Korea or all
four countries. Generally speaking I would see many difficulties
supplying advanced techniques to such regimes – but I do not
profess to be able to read the mind of corporate America where the
balance sheet is the final consideration.
[I am of course being highly cynical here. There may well be strategic implications in such a future world which would mitigate in favor of the supply of dual technology to such Islamic regimes, despite all misgivings.]
Social
and Cultural Cooperation
Highly
unlikely. Even in so called 'progressive' Muslim countries in the
Middle East and in the Gulf the trend is towards ultra-Conservatism.
For example, Mosques are being specially built to 'placate'
foreigners who visit or work in such countries and want to see where
Muslims 'pray'. A sort of Muslim 'Disney World' or 'Disneyland' especially created for
foreigners so that they will go home with a 'good impression' of
Islam2.
Under pressure from Imams, Muslim girls are now forbidden to 'shake
hands' or even 'hug' in greeting Western women on the grounds that
such practice is 'unIslamic' and that they (Western Women) are
'unclean'2.
I recently read an article in a British Newspaper that Muslim schools
in the United Kingdom teach that all Western (Christian) women are
'unclean' and are 'whores and prostitutes'. This
philosophy was being indoctrinated to children as young as six years
of age3. The United
Kingdom government had known about this for at least one decade (and possibly longer) but
chose not to do anything in the interests of not wishing to upset
good community relations. I was aware of extremism within the Muslim
Schools communities in the United Kingdom but never imagined
something as disgraceful as this could be happening – with the
apparent tacit knowledge of the authorities, for some considerable
period of time. I would go even further and suggest
that over several decades in the United States and in Europe such
extremist organizations have secretly infiltrated individuals into
bodies (trusts and other organizations) which have considerable
financial resources and have ensured that such extremist groups,
colleges and schools have been well resourced and funded to carry out
their 'evangelical' work. These then are the reasons I do not foresee
a high degree of social and cultural cooperation between the emerging
Emirates and Caliphates and the Christian world as a whole.
Global
Survival In the 'New Age' of Islamic Extremism and NeoConservatism
Whether we agree with their
philosophies or not, co-existence should, wherever possible, and
practicable, continue to be the order of the day, to foster
continuity in the areas of trade and international commerce. Equally,
Emirates and Caliphates will also have to make painful choices if
they intend to partake and interact with the non-Muslim world in any
meaningful and mutually beneficial ways.
I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic
with regard to this future world. So many times in the past I have
thought that sheer 'common sense' would be the order of the day. How
could it be otherwise? However, for so long as humans base their
strategies on religious, political and economic (financial), racial, ethnic,
tribal and clan doctrines, 'common sense' often just flies straight
out the window – or indeed through it, shattering all the glass in
the process.
Patrick Emek
revised typographical corrections on 28th September, 2014
revised typographical corrections on 28th September, 2014
2 unattributable source
see wikipedia speaking terms:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unattributable#.22Speaking_terms.22
3
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2651700/Hellfire-Muslim-teachers-Trojan-Horse-school-
warned-six-year-olds-white-prostitutes.html#ixzz344gYkAnE
