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Friday, 28 August 2015

The Ukraine:
Falling Through The Abyss
and
Taking Europe Along For The Ride
(The Magical Mystery Tour)

The Abyss
When the crises in the Ukraine began I predicted, based on factual analysis, that the country was not viable economically without the Eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk nor without the Crimea.
Civil war has de facto partitioned the East and West while Russia's illegal siezure of Crimea sealed that region's fate.
Who Is Really Responsible?
The responsibility for this crisis is clearly that of the European Union which insisted, against U.S. advice, that the Ukraine choose between Russia and the European Union.
This was all based on power and influence.
The European Union wanted to be the main power broker for access to Crimea and the (what was then) potential wealth creation in the Eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk.
It wanted, through vast banking and private sector loans to The Ukraine's ailing economy, to be able to control the existing pipeline revenues of oil and gas, and, indeed, plan future transit pipelines for the exclusive benefit of EU global companies.
The last thing which the United States and NATO wanted was a direct confrontation with Russia.
Achilles Heel :– Washington's Eternal Failure To Learn From History
What Washington insiders and advisors were ignoring (out of ignorance or by design) was the historical dimension to relations between the Western region and Russia. This is not surprising as few in Washington these days, who have political influence, are independent enough to provide unpalatable facts to discerning and very partial folks on The Hill.
Senators and Representatives are only interested in a range of very narrow facts and options which will support their own very biased (and often ignorant) viewpoints. 'Compromise' is a four letter word to be viewed with disdain in Washington – and will do nothing to advance your career, whether you are an analyst or politician, these days.

Russia's Culpability: 
Disinformation & The Next Humanitarian Crisis In Europe
Russia continues to portray the crisis in Ukraine as a U.S. 'conspiracy' while conveniently ignoring the European Union's culpability in what can only be described as the next humanitarian disaster – after the present crises of refugees fleeing wars and conflicts in Muslim lands - which NATO's political bosses have grossly mismanaged - waiting to happen.
If this was failure in a corporate organization, heads would roll. What has happened is that these same politicians of failure have now moved on to replicate the past disasters in new campaigns – support of Syrian rebels and their non-existent 'moderate' armies being just the most obvious.
Unintended Consequences
One of the consequences here will be a 'stealth' migration of Ukrainian nationals into Poland.
In much the same way as the burgeoning numbers of Muslim refugees in The Lebanon has the potential to destabilize the fragile unity of this already fractured and dysfunctional country, so too Ukrainian ultra-nationalists being assisted by their Polish counterparts has the potential not just to destabilize Poland but also democratic frameworks throughout Europe.
New Security Threats To Western Europe
It is not possible for Interpol to rely on their Ukrainian counterparts in much the same way as it is not possible to rely on Pakistan to provide accurate information about individuals because in both countries you simply do not know whether you can rely on the data being supplied as not having been 'manufactured' for external compliance by Pakistan's ISI or Ukraine's SBU.
Interpol, at the end of the day, is simply a tool of politicians. If they are policy instructed to ignore specific criteria which have a political-humanitarian dimension – such as a migration of Ukrainian nationals – on the grounds that if there are no reasons to deny entry (for example, holding extreme political views, may not be regarded as a case for automatic barring, especially if the political parties to which the individuals are affiliated are 'legitimate' and 'representative' of popular opinion in the Rada – the Ukrainian Parliament.)
So just one unintended consequence of the deepening economic crisis in the Ukraine is a mass exodus of academics, professionals, young and talented to seek opportunities elsewhere – and the nearest 'elsewhere' is Western Europe.
Interpol will have misgivings but such will more likely be overruled by their political oversight committees - in terms of 'criteria' guidelines.

(Apart from anything else, Ukrainians can easily find their own way into Poland and, with the assistance of sympathetic individuals, make their own way on from there.)
Conspiracy? Find Out Who Benefits
If I was German, I could be forgiven for believing that there was a 'conspiracy' to destroy Europe's most successful economy in the world, besides those of China and the United States. I am of course speaking about that of Germany.
Unintended Trade and Investment Consequences
A whole series of catastrophes have unfolded over the past two decades which have either prevented the powerhouse of Europe, Germany, from trading in the East (Russia) in the Arab world (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan) and in other lucrative regions because of United Nations Security Council resolutions, anti-terror legislation against targeted countries, or simply because of 'new' designated 'crimes' such as 'slave labor' or below minimum wage payment, failure to meet United Nations designated targets for, say, CFC emissions (tax charges on offending countries) the now defunct 'Carbon credits' scam or other newer criteria specification for, say, the safety emissions from new vehicles or some other new designated criteria which must be present before a manufactured good can be imported into the United States or into Europe.
What such effectively are 'stealth' trade barriers to subsidize and give competitive edges to European and U.S. transnational companies.
In Europe all such measures affect German companies disproportionally because Germany remains the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe.
In the short term German companies benefit from such legislation but when told they cannot export for political reasons, then the markets abroad will ultimately be taken up by cheaper Chinese, Indian, and other countries who have not yet 'signed up' to the 'restrictive practices' 'clubs'.  Those markets will be difficult to win back in future decades for the simple reason that the initial barriers were created not on the basis of design faults of foreign competitors, but purely to restrict market access to external competitors.
The foreign goods themselves, from Asia and the Far East, are technically sound (as they always were) and cheaper than their U.S. and German counterparts. So German export markets have been, effectively, ruined, long term.

One could well be forgiven for seeing a new chapter in 'Great Game' unfolding as attempts by others to 'carve up' 'traditional' German markets to rejuvenate their ailing economies, are well under way.

The Refugee Crisis: The Mirage Media
I have already discussed the Muslim and Christian Arab refugee crisis which is also disproportionately affecting Germany more than any other wealthy economy in Western Europe.
If you read my previous blogs I do not blame these unfortunate refugees. They too are pawns of situations outside their control and are doing what any rational person would under similar circumstances. Their dilemma is also being manipulated to stoke the fires of hatreds and nationalism and deflect from those who are silently culpable for these unholy messes, disasters and mismanagement on scales which are almost incredible to believe in the 21st century. The only thing more incredulous to me is the blind ignorance which the daily mirages create for mass population consumption and manipulation so that they themselves cannot see the heart of the matter.

Geroge Orwell's '1984' probably arrived in 1954, but most were so blind, they could not see it then nor can they see it now.

©Patrick Emek, August 2015












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