President Donald Trump
Who Really Won the American Election?
The American people have voted for a profound and fundamental change.
It's
certainly not the change I would have liked to have seen in America but
it is their free choice in one of the world's remaining democracies.
'Broken
Washington', 'despair with corrupt politicians who put foreign global
interests before the American people' and 'international financial
banking and trade conspiracies against America' were amongst the
motivating themes of the Trump Presidential campaign.
But can President Trump deliver on his promises
and what will happen to him if he cannot? We no longer live in a
unipolar world where the balance of trade and services lie exclusively
with the West (America) and its Allies.
There
are new emerging trade blocs and superpowers-in-the-waiting, ready and
willing to challenge American pre-eminence worldwide - and the only way
to stop them will be war - and not the trade and job benefits which
President-elect Trump has promised his followers.
But are global trade wars (or even more military conflicts) what the American people really want and have really in mind when they voted President Trump into Office?
Who Benefits?
Firstly, who will be the beneficiaries both in the United States and overseas?
The greatest long-term winners are both the Russian Federation and China.
The
Russian Federation because it was thanks to Wikileaks that the
perception of Hillary Clinton was (wrongly in my view) re-enforced as a
'disaster' for America.
[Ironically,
President-elect Trump no doubt will deal with the danger of Wikileaks
much more ruthlessly than ever a President-elect Clinton would have
dared. I would not at all be surprised if more
'active measures' to silence Wikileaks will be an option on the table as President Trump more and more appreciates that one of the factors that put him in power today ( the said Wikileaks and its effect on the trust or distrust the American people had in Secretary of State Clinton) will, in another instant and scenario, destroy him tomorrow - should he displease Moscow - which inevitably he will have to at some stage.
In any event, in my opinion, the world will eventually tire of Wikileaks holding a 'sword of Damocles' over the democratic process for forever and a day and a point will be reached where what little support it has just whittles away and Mr Assange is left to 'swing in the wind'. ]
'active measures' to silence Wikileaks will be an option on the table as President Trump more and more appreciates that one of the factors that put him in power today ( the said Wikileaks and its effect on the trust or distrust the American people had in Secretary of State Clinton) will, in another instant and scenario, destroy him tomorrow - should he displease Moscow - which inevitably he will have to at some stage.
In any event, in my opinion, the world will eventually tire of Wikileaks holding a 'sword of Damocles' over the democratic process for forever and a day and a point will be reached where what little support it has just whittles away and Mr Assange is left to 'swing in the wind'. ]
The next theme is
Bringing Jobs Back To America
This can only be achieved if other nations accept the economic 'diktats' which President Trump will attempt to impose.
But what if they (Pacific rim
nations, like the Philippines President, Duterte) say 'up yours Trump, our
future is with China'; will he send in the Marines to enforce 'gunboat
diplomacy'?; how will he impose trade tariffs on countries which, in
effect, 'turn their backs' on the United States in favor of China (in a
frighteningly similar manner that the European Union is threatening to
do with the United Kingdom.)
And what if South and Central American countries go likewise - all moving towards Russia and China.
Do You think that this will never happen?
From
seeing President Trump's 'entourage' I am very sceptical that he will
succeed in enforcing new trade arrangements on countries other than
Canada, Europe, The United Kingdom a handful of Gulf Kingdoms and
(possibly) India.
India is an exception because its relations with the Obama administration have been lukewarm and because of President Trumps ' stand against Islamic extremism, this will 'translate well' with the Indian (Hindu, Buddhist and minority Christian) citizens as a whole.
India is an exception because its relations with the Obama administration have been lukewarm and because of President Trumps ' stand against Islamic extremism, this will 'translate well' with the Indian (Hindu, Buddhist and minority Christian) citizens as a whole.
Many
nations - mainly in Africa and The Muslim Gulf States - I have already
discounted since they will fall in line, economically, with whoever is
in power.
[The Gulf kingdoms have no choice with Iran now poised to dominate Iraq and even the Straits of Hormuz. North Africa is in total chaos and the rest of central Africa no different - thanks to Islamic (ISIS and Al Qaeda) insurgency against mainly Christian and animist countries across the Sahel, parts of equatorial Africa, with bloody tribal wars in the Congo and parts of West Africa.]
But the Pacific nations are an entirely different matter.
Bringing The Jobs Back To America:
But Where Will The Jobs 'Come Back' From?
Conceivably from Mexico, from Canada and from The European Union Member States.
Unless Americans want to be paying outrageous prices for their mobile phones, electronic goods, their Levis, Tee-Shirts and other consumer products, most unlikely from China and the Far East.
Neither is there much hope in expanded export markets in North Africa - thanks to the chaos created by U.S. foreign policy over the past decade.
(see my earlier blogs.) Regions in West Africa and possibly East Africa offer some hope of expanded markets for U.S. goods and services - but none which will bring jobs back to the United States.
Likewise in South East Asia. There are increasing possibilities of expanded trade and services markets in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Burma, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and (potentially) India, but their politicians will quickly move towards China if the prospect of investment and trade terms appear (or they are offered) more favorable arrangements or preferences than currently exist with the U.S.A.
Higher taxes on overseas corporations engaged in the export-import markets will likewise do little to boost the U.S. economy - without it having a devastating effect on the pockets of ordinary folk in those regions who voted for a profound change in their economic circumstances.
[The Gulf kingdoms have no choice with Iran now poised to dominate Iraq and even the Straits of Hormuz. North Africa is in total chaos and the rest of central Africa no different - thanks to Islamic (ISIS and Al Qaeda) insurgency against mainly Christian and animist countries across the Sahel, parts of equatorial Africa, with bloody tribal wars in the Congo and parts of West Africa.]
But the Pacific nations are an entirely different matter.
Bringing The Jobs Back To America:
But Where Will The Jobs 'Come Back' From?
Conceivably from Mexico, from Canada and from The European Union Member States.
Unless Americans want to be paying outrageous prices for their mobile phones, electronic goods, their Levis, Tee-Shirts and other consumer products, most unlikely from China and the Far East.
Neither is there much hope in expanded export markets in North Africa - thanks to the chaos created by U.S. foreign policy over the past decade.
(see my earlier blogs.) Regions in West Africa and possibly East Africa offer some hope of expanded markets for U.S. goods and services - but none which will bring jobs back to the United States.
Likewise in South East Asia. There are increasing possibilities of expanded trade and services markets in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Burma, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and (potentially) India, but their politicians will quickly move towards China if the prospect of investment and trade terms appear (or they are offered) more favorable arrangements or preferences than currently exist with the U.S.A.
Higher taxes on overseas corporations engaged in the export-import markets will likewise do little to boost the U.S. economy - without it having a devastating effect on the pockets of ordinary folk in those regions who voted for a profound change in their economic circumstances.
'Make America Great Again'
Trump's key pledge is 'make America great again'.
But
America already was great, so, according to Trump supporters, this
translates more as a 'drumbeat' and 'war cry' against nations who do not
acquiesce with U.S. trade policy - and this in itself is likely to
drive most of them away from America and toward Russia and China at a
faster rate than has ever been the case in recent history.
The
key here will be whether China can 'exploit' this 'golden'
opportunity. I do not think that China has yet matured to the point
where it is capable of taking sufficient advantage of the chaos caused
internationally by a Trump victory by working with its Asiatic
counterparts as equals rather than as subservient vassals.
The International 'Conspiracies' Against America
If
I am wrong and China can see the way ahead, then we could even see more
seismic shifts during the Trump Presidency - the movement of
international bodies (such as the United Nations - regarded by many
Trump supporters as part of 'the global conspiracy') out of the American
hemisphere.
(I
said about 10 years ago it would not surprise me if one day the U.N.
and other international bodies relocate to Beijing - but even I could
not have foreseen these conditions giving them such momentum as the
hatred and contempt which such will now find themselves under a
President Trump
administration and supporters now seek to impose.)
Such
international bodies concerned with peace and security, health and
trade, will all be effectively told either 'do what the Trump
administration wants or get outta town'.
Handover Time
So
folks, do not be surprised or shocked when, at the eventual end (or close) of a Trump
Presidency, far from bringing jobs in any great numbers back to America
and making America 'great' again the entire balance of power has finally
shifted to a rival superpower(s) or 'blocs' - and the issue we will
then be facing will be the prospect of a global war as America fights
back to regain lost trade routes and international markets to 'new kids
on the block' with a new drumbeat to rally the Trump entourage - but
this time with the threat of nuclear and biological arsenals as
backdrops to the slogan of 'failure is not an option'.
*Japan, South Korea, Singapore,and Taiwan are in a category of their own - being the engines of progress which most of the developing world has sought to emulate. If they all collectively, as with the Philippines, move in the direction of China, which though unlikely is not impossible, this is bad news for President elect-Trump.
President Duterte has sent a conciliatory congratulations to President-elect Trump which you can read below.
©Patrick
Emek, November 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equatorial_Africa
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/588151/news/nation/duterte-s-message-for-us-president-elect-donald-trump