Translate

Monday, 19 May 2014

Speaking truth To Power
(Ray McGovern)


Part I

Rogue or Visionary?
Ray McGovern has often been called a 'renegade' former CIA Officer, a 'nutcase' a CO
(conscientious objector), an 'extremist', a 'radical', maybe even a 'Commie'.
Whatever opinion you take, on the big issues, he has proved over time to be remarkably accurate in his perception of the direction of U.S. Foreign policy. For that, he has earned the enduring enmity of most of the Republican political class – and even many Democratic politicians.
As a retired CIA Officer it is expected that he should go quietly into the silent night and disappear into the background.  If, as a member of the general public (and with a potential media high profile) he is no longer actively or passively 'supportive' of U.S. Foreign policy it is expected he should remain silent.   Indeed after retirement most of his former colleagues do – which is why he is unique.
Epiphany
Reviled and shunned (and occasionally 'roughed up' at political speaking events1) he really is the quintessential 'Thomas Becket'6 of America in our time.
(As there are few spiritual leaders of any worth, but many of great wealth, in the U.S. today, I am at a loss but to find a historical similarity, hence my choice of Becket.)
The conscience of America everyone would prefer to ignore.  The elephant in the room, invisible to all but those who can see.
A Saint by no means but one who more likely than not has had an epiphany 'on the Road to Damascus', seeing what he has seen and experiencing what he has experienced, retiring from the CIA has freed him to speak openly about the political (and spiritual) direction of the United States in today's world in a way he could never have done as an insider.
The CIA that he joined as an enthusiastic young man was a very different animal from what it is today.  The most important difference between then and now is it's autonomy.
Today it is a tool of partisan politicians rather than something respected for it's impartial political autonomy.   Under the guise of accountability it is not just subject to political scrutiny but is captive to the whims of every objective and agenda corporate America wishes to implement - regardless of whether such are in the best long-term political, economic, social and cultural interests of the United States in a world more dynamic, more fluid and more complex since the breakup of the Soviet Union.
9/11 and it's Aftermath
The over reliance of Elint, Comint, Sigint and Telint has left America highly vulnerable. 9/11, in my opinion, is the apex of such paucity and over-reliance.
What followed on from 9/11 has, in my opinion, been one disaster after another - failed objectives in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Libya.  For goodness sake, Al Qaeda are now on the Southern flank of Europe - all across North Africa - sorry that your mainstream media has not informed you about this.
After 9/11 such were the monumental shifts in U.S. foreign policy when world economic objectives, long in abeyance, could now be realized as opportunistic challenges to fulfill  what were paper pipe dreams and sketches of hypothetical scenarios of an ideal world the U.S. would like to arrange became possible. One of the problems was, in my opinion, an ignorance of local conditions - something the British Empire never suffered from as it always assiduously studied the culture, customs and history of peoples it was managing throughout the world so that it could be a effective and efficient custodian and administrator from afar.   Such concepts are alien to corporate America as such are too time consuming and shareholders demand profits and growth every year not every 10 or 20 years.
In an era of instant gratification, and for these reasons, American hubris has little patience.

'What If.........?'
I recall many years ago (probably three decades, certainly long before 9/11) a colleague (who had access at a senior level of authority) provided me with a think-tank paper where what evolved after 9/11 was remarkably similar to what that paper had suggested.  (I must for accuracy say that the paper did not in any way foresee 9/11 but was a scenario of a 'wish list' for re-arranging the world according as to how America, would, under ideal conditions, like it to exist.) Yes, I know that many people spent a lot of time working on 'wish lists' in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Empire but this one caught my eye again after 9/11for it's remarkable portrayal of events which are still unfolding to this very day. (The region of the Caspian Sea was also mentioned in that paper.)
Cassandra
''Before her death, in Aeschylus' play Agamemnon, she tells of how Apollo had seduced her - by offering her his special gift: prophecy.  But she changed her mind and denied him satisfaction.  His revenge was to change the gift subtly - she'd still see the future, but no one would believe her.  The real cruelty was that she would always see the truth: but be unable to communicate it.  So in the play she foresees her own brutal death - as well as Agamemnon's - but cannot prevent it.
Greek society did not recognize the woman's right to say no: so her fate is, in a sense, to have to accept the answer "no" for the rest of her life.  No to marriage, and no to her accurate prognostications.  And so she becomes a serial victim who deserves sympathy for her tragic life but gets none...''3
Whether I agree or disagree with Ray McGovern on many issues is not the point of this article.
What is important to me is that more times than not he has got it right - and far from being rewarded he has been reviled - for the embarrassment he has caused, as an insider and as an outsider, by getting it right4.
In another time and age and place perhaps such wisdom would be cherished and rewarded.
In our time and age, absolute power cannot face nor listen to truth; it's too painful to accept that even absolute power has an Achilles heel5.

History Repeating - If We Fail to Learn From Past Mistakes
Now that the war in Afghanistan is winding down and the war in Iraq is at an end, I would like to revisit an article where Ray McGovern shared his thoughts about why the war in Iraq was a mistake.
You need to appreciate that when he gave this interview he was almost a lone voice, shunned by CNN, Fox, and all the other major news networks or where invited by the media harangued as a 'crank' and 'troublemaker' as they all meekly allowed themselves to be herded on a path towards war by not questioning motives nor the evidence presented.
This article is important in the sense that other wars, involvements and commitments are just over the horizon where again other patriots will be asked for the ultimate sacrifice and for this reason there need to be more (albeit) lone voices like McGovern to question the wisdom and purpose of how to achieve America's long-term economic objectives without the first strike option of 'gunboat diplomacy' always prevailing.
It is highly unlikely that the children of corporate America magnates will be making this ultimate sacrifice.  If they were forced to, by law ( the Draft), I can assure you their parents would not be so 'gungho' and keen to promote wars abroad, to the ends of the earth, as first options.
Timeless
This interview below is, for myself, timeless, in that McGovern asks most of the relevant questions of the politicians and shows us the flaws in their arguments through rational thinking rather than partisan political demagoguery.   Ray McGovern was criticized for being 'unpatriotic'.  But is it unpatriotic to want to save the lives of U.S. armed forces personnel from being needlessly wasted when you honestly and genuinely believe their (mainly young) lives are being expended not to fulfill U.S. ethical, spiritual, and political objectives and the policy objectives of global governance, but solely to satisfy those short-term objectives of corporate America, acting independently and selfishly against the real interests and policy objectives (independent of corporate lobbyists) of the United States?  On many of the issues I have just mentioned I too would be at variance and in disagreement with Ray McGovern but the essence of my point here is that military conflicts are being prioritized over economic and social-societal pre-eminence and while there is interchangeability, any superpower whose economy is home-based on military technology rather than, for example, the export of civilian goods and services, full employment, urban renewal and government supported infrastructural, housing, medical, educational, recreational and a national job creation plan, as a right for every American in America, is on the wrong path.

Finally, do not assume that I am in accord with Ray McGovern's views on a wide range of very specific issues.  I am not.  The purpose of remembering his interview of 2003 is so that it can act as a lighthouse or beacon on the headland for journalists and politicians (at least those who can see) to perhaps reflect on as our ships set sail yet again for new and ever dangerous waters and perils, with very old and very familiar contours.

Now you read on...and judge the merits and deficits of the article for yourself.........


(It's a bit more than I usually blog in an article, so you might wanna get a cup of coffee before reading if you need to stay awake.)


                           Part II

[The article below is reproduced in full by kind permission of 'Truthout']

''Interview: 27-Year CIA Veteran by Will Pitt
t r u t h o u t | Interview
Thursday 26 June 2003

Ray McGovern was a CIA analyst for 27 years, serving seven Presidents. He
is on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.
He is co-director of the Servant Leadership School, an outreach ministry in
the inner city of Washington.

-------

PITT: Could you give me some background regarding who you are and what
work you did with the CIA?

McG: I was a graduate student in Russian studies when I got interested in
the Central Intelligence Agency. I was very intrigued that there was one
central place to prevent what happened at Pearl Harbor from happening again.
I had been commissioned in the US Army, so I needed to do my two years
service there, but wound up down in Washington DC. I took a job with the CIA
in 1963, and it was what it was made out to be.

In other words, I was told that if I were to come on as an analyst of
Soviet foreign policy, when I sat down in the morning, in my In-Box would be
a bunch of material from open sources, from closed sources, from
photography, from intercepts, from agent reports, from embassy reports, you
name it. It would be right there, and all I had to do was sift through it
and make some sense out of it. If I had an important enough story, I would
write it up for the President the next morning. That seemed too good to be
true, but you know what? It was true, and it was really heady work.

PITT: Which Presidents did you serve?

McG: I started with President Kennedy and finished with President Bush,
the first President Bush. That would make seven Presidents.

PITT: What was your area of expertise with the CIA?

McG: I was a Soviet Foreign Policy analyst. I also worked on Soviet
Internal Affairs when I first came on, but then my responsibilities grew and
I became responsible for a lot of different parts of the world. During the
1980s I was briefing the Vice President and Secretaries of State and
Defense, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and
the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. I did this every other morning. We worked
in teams of two, and on any given morning depending on schedules, I would be
hitting two or perhaps three of those senior officials.

PITT: With all of your background, and with all the time that you spent in
the CIA, can you tell me why you are speaking out now about the foreign
policy issues that are facing this country?

McG: It's actually very simple. There's an inscription at the entrance to
the CIA, chiseled into the marble there, which reads, "You Shall Know The
Truth, And The Truth Shall Set You Free." Not many folks realize that the
primary function of the Central Intelligence Agency is to seek the truth
regarding what is going on abroad and be able to report that truth without
fear or favor. In other words, the CIA at its best is the one place in
Washington that a President can turn to for an unvarnished truthful answer
to a delicate policy problem. We didn't have to defend State Department
policies, we didn't have to make the Soviets seem ten feet tall, as the
Defense Department was inclined to do. We could tell it like it was, and it
was very, very heady. We could tell it like it was and have career
protection for doing that. In other words, that's what our job was.

When you come out of that ethic, when you come out of a situation where
you realize the political pressures to do it otherwise - you've seen it, you
've been there, you've done that - and your senior colleagues face up to
those pressures as have you yourself, and then you watch what is going on
today, it is disturbing in the extreme. You ask yourself, "Do I not have
some kind of duty, by virtue of my experience and my knowledge of these
things, do I not have some kind of duty to speak out here and tell the rest
of the American people what's going on?"

PITT: Do you feel as though the 'truth-telling' abilities of the CIA, the
ability to come in with data without fear of reprisal or career
displacement, has been abrogated by this administration?

McG: It has been corroded, or eroded, very much. A lot of it has to do
with who is Director. In the best days, under Colby for example, or John
McCone, we had very clear instructions. I myself, junior as I was in those
days, would go up against Henry Kissinger and tell it like we thought it
was. I was not winning any friends there, by any stretch, but I came back
proud for having done my job. That was because Colby told me to do that, and
I worked directly for him. I also worked directly for George Bush I, and he,
I have to say to his great credit, acted the same way. He was very careful
to keep himself out of policy advocacy, and he told it like it was.

So to watch what is going on now, and to see George Tenet - who has all
the terrific credentials to be a staffer in Congress, credentials which are
antithetical to being a good CIA Director - to see him sit behind Colin
Powell at the UN, to see him give up and shade the intelligence and cave in
when his analysts have been slogging through the muck for a year and a half
trying to tell it like it is, that is very demoralizing, and actually very
infuriating.

PITT: On September 26 2001, George Bush II went down to the CIA, put an
arm around Tenet, and said that he had a "report" for the American people,
that we have the best possible intelligence thanks to the good people at the
CIA. We've come a fair piece down the road since then, and if you read
through the news these days, you get the definite sense that the Bush
administration is attempting to lay blame for the fact that no weapons of
mass destruction have been found in Iraq, to lay blame for that at the feet
of the CIA. Furthermore, by all appearances, the months of reports the
administration put out about Iraq's weapons capabilities are not turning out
to be accurate. To no small extent, it appears that there is a scapegoating
process taking place here. What is your take on this?

McG: It is interesting that you would go back to September 26, because tha
t was a very key performance on the part of our President. Here was an
agency that was created expressly to prevent another Pearl Harbor. That was
why the CIA was created originally in 1947. Harry Truman was hell-bent on
making sure that, if there were little pieces of information spread around
the government, that they all came to one central intelligence agency, one
place where they could be collated and analyzed, and the analysis be given
to policy people.

So here is September 11, the first time since Pearl Harbor that this
system failed. It was worse than Pearl Harbor. More people were killed on
September 11 than were killed at Pearl Harbor, and where were the pieces?
They were scattered all around the government, just like they were before
Pearl Harbor. For George Bush to go out to CIA headquarters and put his arm
around George Tenet and tell the world that we have the best intelligence
services in the world, this really called for some analysis, if you will.

My analysis is that George Bush had no option but to keep George Tenet on
as Director, because George Tenet had warned Bush repeatedly, for months and
months before September 11, that something very bad was about to happen.

PITT: There was the August 6 2001 briefing.

McG: On August 6, the title of the briefing was, "Bin Laden Determined to
Strike in the US," and that briefing had the word "Hijacking" in it. That's
all I know about it, but that's quite enough. In September, Bush had to make
a decision. Is it feasible to let go of Tenet, whose agency flubbed the dub
on this one? And the answer was no, because Tenet knows too much about what
Bush knew, and Bush didn't know what to do about it. That's the bottom line
for me.

Bush was well-briefed. Before he went off to Texas to chop wood for a
month like Reagan did in California, he was told all these things. He didn't
even have the presence of mind to convene his National Security Council, and
say, "OK guys, we have all these reports, what are we going to do about it?"
He just went off to chop wood.

PITT: Now why is that? There are people in America who believe this kind
of behavior was deliberate - the administration was repeatedly warned and
nothing was done about those warnings. It smacks of deliberate policy for a
lot of people. This is the current World Heavyweight Champion of conspiracy
theories.

McG: In this, I am an adherent of the charitable interpretation, and that
comes down to gross incompetence. They just didn't know what to do. Look at
who was in charge there. You have Condoleezza Rice. She knows a lot about
Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, but she has no idea about terrorism.
She had this terrorism dossier that Clinton NSC director Sandy Berger left
behind, and by her own admission she didn't get to it. "It was still on my
desk when September 11 happened," she said. They didn't take this thing
seriously.

Now, you can probably fault George Tenet for not being careful about
crying wolf. In other words, you cry wolf often enough and in an
undifferentiated way, then that is not a real service to the President. You
really have to say, "Mr. President, you know I warned you about this two
months ago, but now this is really serious." You have to grab him by the
collar and say, "We've got to do something about this." Tenet didn't do
that. So I attribute it not to conspiracy theories, but to lack of
experience, a kind of arrogance that says, "Who cares what Sandy Berger
thinks," and just gross incompetence.

Now 'gross incompetence' is not a nice thing to say about a President, but
he had no experience in this at all, and the people he surrounded himself
with also had no experience.

PITT: Given all of this - the August 6 briefing, the other terrorism
warnings, the big hug given to Tenet by Bush on September 26, and the fact
that Tenet was kept on because he knew too much about what the Bush
administration was aware of before September 11 - one gets the sense that
Tenet has been relegated to the position of lapdog. This is a frightful
position for the Director of CIA to occupy.

McG: It wouldn't be the first time, and I think regarding Tenet the term
'lapdog,' unfortunately, is apt. For example, here were rather courageous
CIA analysts under terrific pressure from the likes of Deputy Defense
Secretary Wolfowitz to establish a contact or connection between al Qaeda
and Iraq. They resisted this ever since 9/11, not out of any unwillingness
to believe it, but simply because there was no evidence to establish it. To
their credit, they held the line, and were supported by Brent Scowcroft of
all people, who very courageously spoke out and said that evidence is
"scant."

Now here's George Tenet, when push comes to shove on February 5 at the UN,
sitting right behind Colin Powell like a potted plant, as if to say the CIA
and all his analysts agreed with what Colin Powell was about to say about
contacts between al Qaeda and Iraq. That was incredibly demoralizing for all
my colleagues. That's the kind of thing that will be a very noxious
influence on their morale and their ability to continue the good fight.

PITT: Is there a great deal of unrest and unease within the CIA at this
point?

McG: Not a great deal, but an incredible amount of unease and disarray.
There are a lot of people who feel as strongly as I do about integrity. It
was not some sort of an extra thing with us. We took it seriously, and we
had a big advantage, of course. We could tell it like it was. To the degree
that esprit de corps exists, and I know it does among the folks we talk to,
there is great, great turmoil there. In the coming weeks, we're going to be
seeing folks coming out and coming forth with what they know, and it is
going to be very embarrassing for the Bush administration.

PITT: How much of a dent does this unease, and this inability to stand up
to those who have put this atmosphere in place, how much of a dent does this
put in our ability to defend this country against the very real threats we
face?

McG: A big dent, and that of course is the bottom line. What you need to
have is rewards for competence and not for being able to sniff which way the
wind is blowing. You need to have people rewarded for good performance and
not for political correctness. You have to have people who are serious about
collecting and analyzing this material. The way the analysis was played fast
and loose with, going back to last spring, is just incredible. It requires a
whole re-do of how the whole national security setup is arranged, to have
intelligence come up and have it treated with the kind of respect and the
kind of consideration it is due.

PITT: Let's bottom-line it here. In the situation regarding the question
of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons in Iraq, where does the fault
lie for the manner in which this has all broken down? Was it an intelligence
failure on the part of the CIA, or are we talking about the Bush
administration misusing both that institution and the information it
provided?

McG: It's both, really. Let's take the chemical and biological stuff
first. At the root of this, as I reconstruct it, is what I call 'Analysis by
Subtraction.' Let's take a theoretical example: Iraq had listed 50,000
liters of sarin nerve gas in 1995. The UN is known to have destroyed 35,000
liters of this. Subsequently, US bombing destroyed another 5,000 liters of
this. Therefore, QED, they have 10,000 liters of sarin.

There's no consideration given here to shelf life of sarin, what would be
necessary to keep sarin active, where it would be stored, how it would be
stored, the correct temperature and all that. Instead, it is, "We think they
had this and here is the inventory. We think we destroyed this" or "We know
we destroyed that, and so the difference, we assume, is there"

You don't start a war on an assumption, and with the sophisticated
collection devices the US intelligence apparatus has, it is unconscionable
not to have verified that so they could say, "Yes sir, we know that it's
there, we can confirm it this and that way." Instead, as I said, it was
analysis by subtraction. We had the inventory here, and we know we destroyed
that, so they must have this. Analysis like that, I wouldn't rehire the
analyst who did it if he were working for me. That's the biological and
chemical part.

To be quite complete on this, it encourages me that the analysts at the
Defense Intelligence Agency - who share this ethic of trying to tell the
truth, even though they are under much greater pressure and have much less
career protection because they work for Rumsfeld - to their great credit, in
September of last year they put out a memo saying there is no reliable
evidence to suggest that the Iraqis have biological or chemical weapons, or
that they are producing them.

PITT: Was this before or after Vice President Cheney started making
personal visits to the CIA?

McG: It was all at the same time. This stuff doesn't all get written in
one week. It was all throughout the spring and summer that this stuff was
being collected. When the decision was made last summer that we will have a
war against Iraq, they were casting about. You'll recall White House Chief
of Staff Andy Card saying you don't market a new product in August. The big
blast-off was Cheney's speech in Nashville, I think it was Nashville anyway,
on August 26. He said Iraq was seeking materials for its nuclear program.
That set the tone right there.

They looked around after Labor Day and said, "OK, if we're going to have
this war, we really need to persuade Congress to vote for it. How are we
going to do that? Well, let's do the al Qaeda-Iraq connection. That's the
traumatic one. 9/11 is still a traumatic thing for most Americans. Let's do
that."

But then they said, "Oh damn, those folks at CIA don't buy that, they say
there's no evidence, and we can't bring them around. We've tried every which
way and they won't relent. That won't work, because if we try that, Congress
is going to have these CIA wimps come down, and the next day they'll
undercut us. How about these chemical and biological weapons? We know they
don't have any nuclear weapons, so how about the chemical and biological
stuff? Well, damn. We have these other wimps at the Defense Intelligence
Agency, and dammit, they won't come around either. They say there's no
reliable evidence of that, so if we go up to Congress with that, the next
day they'll call the DIA folks in, and the DIA folks will undercut us."

So they said, "What have we got? We've got those aluminum tubes!" The
aluminum tubes, you will remember, were something that came out in late
September, the 24th of September. The British and we front-paged it. These
were aluminum tubes that were said by Condoleezza Rice as soon as the report
came out to be only suitable for use in a nuclear application. This is
hardware that they had the dimensions of. So they got that report, and the
British played it up, and we played it up. It was front page in the New York
Times. Condoleezza Rice said, "Ah ha! These aluminum tubes are suitable only
for uranium-enrichment centrifuges."

Then they gave the tubes to the Department of Energy labs, and to a
person, each one of those nuclear scientists and engineers said, "Well, if
Iraq thinks it can use these dimensions and these specifications of aluminum
tubes to build a nuclear program, let 'em do it! Let 'em do it. It'll never
work, and we can't believe they are so stupid. These must be for
conventional rockets."

And, of course, that's what they were for, and that's what the UN
determined they were for. So, after Condoleezza Rice's initial foray into
this scientific area, they knew that they couldn't make that stick, either.
So what else did they have?

Well, somebody said, "How about those reports earlier this year that Iraq
was trying to get Uranuim from Niger? Yeah.that was pretty good." But of
course if George Tenet were there, he would have said, "But we looked at the
evidence, and they're forgeries, they stink to high heaven." So the question
became, "How long would it take for someone to find out they were
forgeries?" The answer was about a day or two. The next question was, "When
do we have to show people this stuff?" The answer was that the IAEA had been
after us for a couple of months now to give it to them, but we can probably
put them off for three or four months.

So there it was. "What's the problem? We'll take these reports, we'll use
them to brief Congress and to raise the specter of a mushroom cloud. You'll
recall that the President on the 7th of October said, "Our smoking gun could
come in the form of a mushroom cloud." Condoleezza Rice said exactly the
same thing the next day. Victoria Clarke said exactly the same thing on the
9th of October, and of course the vote came on the 11th of October.

Don't take my word for it. Take Henry Waxman's word for it. Waxman has
written the President a very, very bitter letter dated the 17th of March in
which he says, "Mr. President, I was lied to. I was lied to. I was briefed
on a forgery, and on the strength of that I voted for war. Tell me how this
kind of thing could happen?" That was March 17. He hasn't received a
response from the White House yet.

That's the way it worked, and you have to give them credit. These guys are
really clever. It worked.

PITT: We were talking a little while ago about Andy Card and marketing
wars in August, and you stated that the decision to make war in Iraq was
made in the summer of 2002. General Wesley Clark appeared on a Sunday talk
show with Tim Russert on June 15, and Clark surprisingly mentioned that he
was called at his home by the White House on September 11 and told to make
the connection between those terrorist attacks and Saddam Hussein. He was
told to do this on the day of the attacks, told to say that this was
state-sponsored terrorism and there must be a connection. What do you make
of that?

McG: That is really fascinating. If you look at what he said, he said,
"Sure, I'll say that. Where's the evidence?" In other words, he's a good
soldier. He's going to do this. But he wanted the evidence, and there was no
evidence. Clark was not only a good soldier, but a professional soldier. A
professional soldier, at his level at least, asks questions. When he found
out there was no evidence, he didn't say what they wanted him to say.

Contrast that with Colin Powell, who first and foremost is a good soldier.
But when he sees the evidence, and knows it smells, he will salute the
President and brief him anyway, as he did on the 5th of February.

PITT: There was a recent Reuters report which described Powell being given
a draft of his February 5 UN statements by Scooter Libby and the Rumsfeld
boys. Powell threw it across the room, according to Reuters, and said, "I'm
not reading this. This is bullshit."

McG: I can see it happening. Powell was Weinberger's military assistant
for a couple of years, and I was seeing Weinberger every other morning in
those years. I would see Powell whenever I went in to see Weinberger, and so
I used to spend 15 minutes with him every other morning, just kind of
reassuring him that I wasn't going to tell his boss anything he didn't need
to know. Not only that, but we come out of the same part of the Bronx. He
was a year ahead of me. He was ROTC and so was I. He was in ROTC at City
College and became Colonel of Cadets and head of the Pershing Rifles, a kind
of elite corps there.

I understand Colin Powell. I know where he is coming from, I know where he
got his identity and his persona, and it was in this great institution we
call the United States Army, which, by the way, I am very proud to have
served in. But that be exaggerated, and it has been in his case. People were
expecting him to take a stand on principle and resign. That was never a
possibility I attributed to Colin Powell, because unlike General Clark,
Powell is really a creature of how he was given his identity in this whole
system. He is just not constitutionally able to buck it.

PITT: Do you think Powell was aware that the British intelligence dossier
he used on February 5 before the UN, the one he held up and praised
lavishly, was plagiarized from a graduate student who was writing about Iraq
circa 1991?

McG: No, I think he was unaware of that. I'll tell you a little story.
Back in January, Colin Powell invited all the NATO countries for a confab so
he could brief them on Iraq and tell them what they should be telling their
host governments. After one of the sessions he was in the hall, and one of
the ambassadors asked him what the evidence was like on Iraq. Powell said he
didn't know, he hadn't seen it yet. That was January.

Small wonder that Powell now brags of having had to spend four days in
early February - right before his UN speech on the 5th - up at CIA
headquarters pouring over the evidence, analyzing and selecting what he
should say on the 5th. I can only believe he had a lot on his plate - the
Middle East and other stuff - and that the daily briefings were so sparse
that he really didn't have a good handle on what the evidence was that
support this case for weapons of mass destruction and all that stuff. It
becomes more believable to me that he really was starting almost with tabula
rasa on the 1st of February, and then went up to CIA headquarters and said,
"OK, what have we got?" And the first thing he was given was Scooter Libby's
first draft, and you already recounted his reaction.

PITT: So what we have, essentially, is in the run-up to the war the
Secretary of State of the United States of America was cramming for a major
exam like a freshman in high school.

McG: Yes. And most of the evidence was being supplied by the Vice
President's office, in the person of Scooter Libby, and Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld along with Wolfowitz. That's curious enough, but an equally
important point I would make is this: I worked at senior levels up there for
27 years. Never, never once, not one time did the Vice President of the
United States, the Secretary of State or the National Security Advisor come
up to the CIA for a working visit. Vice President Bush came up a couple of
times to give awards out - after all, he was once the Director - but never
for a working visit.

We went down there. I was part of that briefing team. I would be down
there every other morning, and if they wanted more depth I would bring folks
down there with me, folks who I knew were the experts. We came to them. We
had our homework done alone, thank you very much. We got real good insights
into what the concerns were during these morning briefings, and sometimes we
got concrete requirements or papers to be done by the next day. We had a
really good window into what was uppermost in policy-maker's minds, but we
would take that back to CIA headquarters and say, "OK, now we know what they
're interested in. What to we have?" And we'd do it alone. We'd analyze the
heck out of it. We'd polish it off, pass it by our supervisors and bring it
down the next morning.

The prospect of the Secretary of State and Condoleezza Rice and Cheney
convening in CIA headquarters to sit around a table and help with the
analysis.give me a break! You don't have policy-makers at the table when you
're doing analysis. That's antithetical to the whole ethic of analysis. You'
re divorced from policy as soon as you do your analysis, and when you're
finished, you serve it up to them, and they can do what they want with it.
To be sure, that's the other part of the game. But when they get it, they
get it in unexpurgated virgin form, and that was heady and important work.
It was the only place in town, in the Foreign Affairs realm, that could and
did do that work.

PITT: Where do you see this whole issue of the manner in which the war was
sold to the American people going?

McG: The most important and clear-cut scandal, of course, has to do with
the forgery of those Niger nuclear documents that were used as proof. The
very cold calculation was that Congress could be deceived, we could have our
war, we could win it, and then no one would care that part of the evidence
for war was forged. That may still prove to be the case, but the most
encouraging thing I've seen over the last four weeks now is that the US
press has sort of woken from its slumber and is interested. I've asked
people in the press how they account for their lack of interest before the
war, and now they seem to be interested. I guess the simple answer is that
they don't like to be lied to.

I think the real difference is that no one knew, or very few people knew,
before the war that there weren't any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Now they know. It's an unavoidable fact. No one likes to be conned, no one
likes to be lied to, and no one particularly likes that 190 US servicemen
and women have been killed in this effort, not to mentioned the five or six
thousand Iraqi civilians.

There's a difference in tone. If the press does not succumb to the
argument put out by folks like Tom Friedman, who says it doesn't really
matter that there are no weapons in Iraq, if it does become a quagmire which
I believe it will be, and we have a few servicemen killed every week, then
there is a prospect that the American people will wake up and say, "Tell me
again why my son was killed? Why did we have to make this war on Iraq?"

So I do think that there is some hope now that the truth will come out. It
won't come out through the Congressional committees. That's really a joke, a
sick joke.

PITT: During the Clinton administration, if there was going to be an
investigation into something, it was going to come out of the House of
Representatives. What would your assessment of the situation be at this
point?

McG: It doesn't take a crackerjack analyst. Take Pat Roberts, the
Republican Senator from Kansas, who is chairman of the Senate Intelligence
Committee. When the Niger forgery was unearthed and when Colin Powell
admitted, well shucks, it was a forgery, Senator Jay Rockefellar, the
ranking Democrat on that committee, went to Pat Roberts and said they really
needed the FBI to take a look at this. After all, this was known to be a
forgery and was still used on Congressmen and Senators. We'd better get the
Bureau in on this. Pat Roberts said no, that would be inappropriate. So
Rockefellar drafted his own letter, and went back to Roberts and said he was
going to send the letter to FBI Director Mueller, and asked if Roberts would
sign on to it. Roberts said no, that would be inappropriate.

What the FBI Director eventually got was a letter from one Minority member
saying pretty please, would you maybe take a look at what happened here,
because we think there may have been some skullduggery. The answer he got
from the Bureau was a brush-off. Why do I mention all that? This is the same
Pat Roberts who is going to lead the investigation into what happened with
this issue.

There is a lot that could be said about Pat Roberts. I remember way back
last fall when people were being briefed, CIA and others were briefing
Congressmen and Senators about the weapons of mass destruction. These press
folks were hanging around outside the briefing room, and when the Senators
came out, one of the press asked Senator Roberts how the evidence on weapons
of mass destruction was. Roberts said, oh, it was very persuasive, very
persuasive.

The press guy asked Roberts to tell him more about that. Roberts said,
"Truck A was observed to be going under Shed B, where Process C is believed
to be taking place." The press guy asked him if he found that persuasive,
and Pat Roberts said, "Oh, these intelligence folks, they have these
techniques down so well, so yeah, this is very persuasive." And the
correspondent said thank you very much, Senator.

So, if you've got a Senator who is that inclined to believe that kind of
intelligence, you've got someone who will do the administration's bidding.
On the House side, of course, you've got Porter Goss, who is a CIA alumnus.
Porter Goss' main contribution last year to the joint committee
investigating 9/11 was to sic the FBI on members of that committee, at the
direction of who? Dick Cheney. Goss admits this. He got a call from Dick
Cheney, and he was "chagrined" in Goss' word that he was upbraided by Dick
Cheney for leaks coming out of the committee. He then persuaded the innocent
Bob Graham to go with him to the FBI and ask the Bureau to investigate the
members of that committee. Polygraphs and everything were involved. That's
the first time something like that has ever happened.

Be aware, of course, that Congress has its own investigative agencies, its
own ways of investigating things like that. So without any regard for the
separation of powers, here Goss says Cheney is bearing down on me, so let's
get the FBI in here. In this case, ironically enough, the FBI jumped right
in with Ashcroft whipping it along. They didn't come up with much, but the
precedent was just terrible.

All I'm saying is that you've got Porter Goss on the House side, you've
got Pat Roberts on the Senate side, you've got John Warner who's a piece
with Pat Roberts. I'm very reluctant to be so unequivocal, but in this case
I can say nothing is going to come out of those hearings but a lot of smoke.

PITT: So what is the alternative?

McG: The alternative would be an independent judicial commission, such as
the one that a lot of the British are appealing for in London. You get a
person who is not beholden to George Bush or to the Democrats, a universally
respected figure, and let him pick the members of the commission, and you
give them access to this material. Not restricted access, like what the 9/11
committee in Congress got. You give them everything, and you let them tell
their story. It would take a while, but they would come up with a much
better prospect of a fair judgment on what happened.

PITT: That's not going to come unless there is some pretty significant
pressure put on the administration from outside Congress.

McG: I wouldn't see that coming at all, and surely not before 2004.

PITT: In your time at CIA as a Soviet Foreign Policy analyst, you were
directly involved with analyzing Soviet policy issues in the run-up to and
duration of the Soviet war in Afghanistan?

McG: Yes.

PITT: How deep into the details of that did you get?

McG: Oh, quite deep. By that time my responsibilities had grown, and I
stayed very interested and abreast of what was going on there.

PITT: Could you talk about how America's involvement in the Soviet war in
Afghanistan led to the events of September 11? There are some very clear,
straight-line connections - starting with Brzyznski's 'Afghan Trap' in
1978 - between the two events, yes? From your perspective, how did that
develop?

McG: The big momentum was put on by a fellow named William Casey, who was
head of CIA under Reagan. He saw this as a little war that he could wage and
win, and he had a lot of support from folks on the Hill. What they did was
arm and recruit folks like Osama bin Laden and others. One of the big
decisions they had to make was whether or not to give them Stinger missiles.
I remember when that was under discussion. The dangers of giving these
uncontrollable folks Stinger missiles was emphasized, but the decision was
to go ahead and give them those missiles anyway. In many respects, the folks
that were used as our proxies in this war against the Soviets have come back
to bite us, and to bite us very hard as we know from 9/11.

PITT: The invasion came in 1979 because the Soviets were worried about
their puppet regime in Afghanistan. It became a great Muslim cause to defend
Afghanistan against the godless invaders. Osama bin Laden became a hero by
funding this fight, and by fighting along with the others. When the war
ended in 1989, when the Soviets withdrew with their tail between their legs,
Afghanistan was left in an utterly shattered and destroyed state. Given the
fact that we basically precipitated the start of that war by arming and
training those mujeheddin fighters to go after the Afghan government in 1978
and 1979, why was the decision made in 1989 to leave Afghanistan in such a
sorry state? The chaos left in the aftermath of that war led to the rise of
the Taliban. Why didn't we help clean up the terrible mess we had helped to
cause?

McG: I hate to be cynical about these things, but once we got the Soviets
out, our reason to be there basically evaporated. You may ask about the poor
people and the poor country. Well, we have a history of doing this kind of
thing, of using people. The Kurds are one example. We use them and betray
them, and we don't care much once our little geopolitical objective has been
achieved. That's what was in play here. Nobody gave a damn. We had a
brilliant victory, we got the Soviets out of there, we started pounding our
chests, and nobody gave much thought to helping the poor Afghanis that were
left behind.

In addition, these bad guys were our good guys. Osama bin Laden and all
those folks were people we armed and trained, and when you get that close -
and this is a systemic problem within the Agency - when you get that close
so that you're in bed with these guys, you can't step back and say, "Whoa,
wait a second. These guys could be a real danger in the future." You can't
make a calculated, dispassionate analysis of what might be in store for
these guys. It was a poor situation politically, strategically, and as it
turned out, analytically as well.

PITT: What we're talking about is actions and consequences. At the time,
there was not a lot of concern for Afghanistan after we had achieved our
goals there, and the place was left to fester, and 9/11 became the
inevitable consequence of that.

McG: Right.

PITT: Are you aware of the situation surrounding John O'Neill? He was a
Deputy Director of the FBI, and was the chief bin Laden hunter. He
investigated the first Twin Towers bombing, he investigated the Khobar
Towers bombing, he investigated the bombing of our embassies in Africa, and
he investigated the bombing of the USS Cole. He was the guy in government
who knew everything about bin Laden, and he quit the FBI in protest three
weeks before 9/11. He quit because he said he was not being allowed to
investigate terror connections to Saudi Arabia, because such investigations
threatened the petroleum business we do with that nation. O'Neill quit, took
a job as chief of security at the World Trade Center, and died doing his job
on September 11. The fact that he was thwarted in his terrorism
investigations clearly left a hole in our intelligence capabilities
regarding these threats - the guy who knew the most about it was not allowed
to pursue those connections to the greatest possible degree.

McG: I am aware of that. There are other FBI folks who have spoken out
about this same problem. There is an agent from Chicago named Robert Wright
who has spoken out about his being hamstrung in his attempts to investigate
these matters. Just read the book about the FBI labs that was written by
Warren and Kelley. The corruption and deceit that goes on there, and the
headquarters mentality where you can be completely incompetent and still get
a Presidential award - which is what happened with the fellow who squashed
the Minneapolis Bureau's requests for action against Moussaoui - there's
something really insidiously wrong there. The problem is that if you ask Pat
Roberts or the Judiciary Committee and the Congress to do something about
it, well, lots of luck.

PITT: Is there anything else you would like to touch upon before we are
finished?

McG: My primary attention is on the forgery of the Niger documents that
supposedly proved Iraq was developing a nuclear program. It seems to me that
you can have endless arguments about the correct interpretation of this or
that piece of intelligence, or intelligence analysis, but a forgery is a
forgery. It's demonstrable that senior officials of this government,
including the Vice President, knew that it was a forgery in March of last
year. It was used anyway to deceive our Congressmen and Senators into voting
for an unprovoked war. That seems to me to be something that needs to be
borne in mind, that needs to be held up for everyone to see. If an informed
public, and by extension an informed Congress, is the necessary bedrock for
democracy, then we've got a split bedrock that is in bad need of repair.

I have done a good bit of research here, and one of the conclusions I have
come to is that Vice President Cheney was not only interested in "helping
out" with the analysis, let us say, that CIA was producing on Iraq. He was
interested also in fashioning evidence that he could use as proof that, as
he said, "The Iraqis had reconstituted their nuclear program," which
demonstrably they had not.

What I'm saying is that this needs to be investigated. We know that it was
Dick Cheney who sent the former US ambassador to Niger to investigate. We
know he was told in early March of last year that the documents were
forgeries. And yet these same documents were used in that application. That
is something that needs to be uncovered. We need to pursue why the Vice
President allowed that to happen. To have global reporters like Walter
Pincus quoting senior administration officials that Vice President Cheney
was not told by CIA about the findings of this former US ambassador strains
credulity well beyond the breaking point. Cheney commissioned this trip, and
when the fellow came back, he said, "Don't tell me, I don't want to know
what happened." That's just ridiculous.

Cheney knew, and Cheney was way out in front of everybody, starting on the
26th of August, talking about Iraq seeking nuclear weapons. As recently as
the 16th of March, three days before the war, he was again at it. This time
he said Iraq has reconstituted its nuclear weapons program. It hadn't. It
demonstrably hadn't. There has been nothing like that uncovered in Iraq. As
the first President Bush said about the invasion of Kuwait, this cannot
stand.

One other thing I'd like to note is the anomaly that President Bush has
succeeded Saddam Hussein in the role of preventing UN inspectors from coming
into Iraq. He has not even been asked why.

There is no conceivable reason why the United States of America should not
be imploring Hans Blix and the rest of his folks to come right in. They have
the expertise, they've been there, they've done that. They have millions of
dollars available through the UN. They have people who know the weaponry,
how they are procured and produced. They know personally the scientists,
they've interviewed them before. What possible reason could the United
States of America have to say no thanks, we'll use our own GI's to do this.
Don't come in here. That needs to be brought out. For the UN to be waiting
with those inspectors at the ready, there has got to be some reason why the
United States won't let them back in.

The more sinister interpretation is that the US wants to be able to plant
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Now, most people will say, "Come on,
McGovern. How are you going to get a SCUD in there without everyone seeing
it?" It doesn't have to be a SCUD. It can be the kind of little vile vial
that Colin Powell held up on the 5th of February. You put a couple of those
in a GI's pocket, and you swear him to secrecy, and you have him go bury
them out in the desert. You discover it ten days later, and President Bush,
with more credibility than he could with those trailers will say, "Ha! We've
found the weapons of mass destruction."

I think that's a possibility, a real possibility. I think that, since it
is a real possibility, the Democrats' sheepishness on this, their reluctance
to get out on a limb and say there are no weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq, may be more explainable. But they should come around anyway.

PITT: I have heard that it is difficult to manufacture Iraqi-style weapons
of this type, because the Iraqi chemical and biological weapons have a
particular signature created in their inception that is hard to duplicate.

McG: It was very difficult to do the forgery, too. A slipshod job was
done. When Colin Powell was asked about it , he said, "We have this
information. If it is inaccurate, fine." Like I said before, he and I come
out of the same part of the Bronx. He went to Army charm school and I did
not. That kind of tone, that kind of attitude, was always accompanied by an
obscene gesture and a four-letter word where I came from. But that's the
attitude.

If they can take that kind of attitude on a forgery, they can take the
same attitude on this. "You can believe who you want," they'll say. "You can
believe Hans Blix and Saddam Hussein, or you can believe us. We say we found
it there."

Four months ago, I would have said, "McGovern, you're paranoid to say
stuff like that." But in light of all that has happened, and light of the
terrific stakes involved for the President here - each time he says we're
going to find these things, he digs himself in a little deeper - I think it'
s quite possible that they will resort to this type of thing.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
William Rivers Pitt william.pitt@mail.truthout.org is a New York Times
best-selling author of two books - "War On Iraq" available now from Context
Books, and "The Greatest Sedition is Silence," now available from Pluto
Press at www.SilenceIsSedition.com.

© Copyright 2003 by TruthOut.org.

Copyright, Truthout.org. Reprinted with permission

Part I
References

Thursday, 15 May 2014

Whatever Happened To Flight MH370?

I will notably leave out the Alien Abduction Theory so that we can look at some rational and sane suggestions about the fate of that ill-fated aeroplane:

1.That either the Pilot or Co-pilot had a nervous breakdown and subsequently crashed the plane killing all on board

2.That the plane was hijacked and subsequently either ran out of fuel or crashed within a few hundred or a few thousand kilometers of Diego Garcia

3.That the plane was accidentally shot down in mid-air by a country yet to own up

4.That the plane was accidentally shot down
(I recall there was a most unusual case off the U.S.-Canada coast many years ago where there were actual suspicions that perhaps a student/civilian prank went terribly wrong and a home-made rocket/projectile/missile brought down a civilian airliner with the tragic loss of all on board. I don't believe that it ever appeared in the Official Report about the crash but there were rumors and speculations.)


5.That the plane was hijacked to an unknown destination for some as yet unknown objective

6.That an attempted hijack took place but was unsuccessful because of the bravery of the pilot,co-pilot and crew or/and passengers but which resulted in the loss of all on board


7.That there was catastrophic failure and systems malfunctions for reasons yet to be determined and the plane crashed


The fact is we do not yet know what actually happened but someone somewhere may have that vital piece of information which will help to solve this puzzle and give some solace and closure to the grief of those suffering relatives of the pilot, co-pilot, the crew and all the passengers on board that ill-fated flight.

Patrick Emek

Monday, 12 May 2014

Crises In The Ukraine:
Referendum For Autonomy In Donetsk and Lugansk

Firstly I want to say in all sincerity that I do not want to end up 'on the wrong side of history'.
[This is why I am writing this specific blog.]
I would like to make it clear from the outset that both 'The Bullhorn of President Putin' and
The U.S. State Department have both got it wrong with regard to both the legitimacy of this referendum and it's announced results.
Let me start with the State Department:
The State Department and Kiev have both called the autonomy referendum a 'farce' and it's results (in favor of autonomy for both regions) will remain unrecognised by the international community.
The first issue is that the government in Kiev has effectively disenfranchised it's Russian speaking ethnic minority populations through direct legislative actions. So Russian ethnic minorities in The Ukraine are now, in effect, by law, second class citizens. This fact alone is in breach of international law with regard to citizenship for minorities born and bred in any country and their rights to freedom, liberty, equality and the equal pursuit of justice and happiness.
Secondly, the referendum cannot be described as a 'farce' where the only legitimate and peaceful source of protest for a disenfranchised minority is through the ballot box; even less so if the Government in Kiev has not, through the ballot box, secured it's own legitimacy. But this is where the criticism of the State Department ends.
It is equally unacceptable that even a [purportedly] disenfranchised minority should take it upon itself to declare autonomy before open, free and fair national elections determine the peoples' choice- inclusive of all Ukrainian citizens (including Russian-speaking minorities) - through the ballot box. The new, locally convened interim autonomy collective of Donetsk and Lugansk does not have the legal authority to cancel the forthcoming national elections set for the whole country – including Donetsk and Lugansk - later on this month. This can only be determined by the national parliament in Kiev. The problem is even more complicated because the interim new democratic authority in Kiev is holding national elections on 25th of this month (May 2014) to consolidate it's own legitimacy throughout the entire country. Neither can the interim authority in Donetsk and Lugansk declare independence nor autonomy without legislative approval from Kiev - and even then only after a national referendum on the subject - a second national polling of all of the eligible Ukrainian people to determine the future of the country, after the first one later this month to consolidate the international legitimacy of the situation existing after the embattled and politically estranged President Yanukovich fled the country for Moscow and the new democrats seized power.
To declare that the interim authority in Kiev has no legal authority over the two regions when in fact it is the acting government for the whole country (even if it has implemented measures againt minorities which are against the charters of the European Union(1) of which it is not yet  member ) has no legal basis because there is no provision in the Ukrainian constitution enabling secession or autonomy of regions in the event of an unparalleled crisis such as the one the country is currently facing.

I am not an international legal specialist but if I were a betting person I would say that the situation is a legal mess – no thanks to the pro-Moscow separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk.
It's a very dangerous situation for Kiev because how it acts to restore civil order in the East will not only determine the future of the country but could even determine whether the country is in a state of civil war, declared or undeclared.
There is too much 'megaphone' rhetoric from the State Department to Kremlin and not enough quiet diplomacy between Washington and Moscow. There should always be room and space and time for quiet diplomacy – particularly in an age when instant communications drive political decisions in the public democratic forum of the world in open societies before even the civil servants can take grasp with more measured criteria and advice.
Both 'The Bullhorn of President Putin' and The State Department have equally misrepresented the truth. History will not be kind to either of them. [But there again, it depends on who writes the history books.]


Patrick Emek

1.www.europarl.europa.eu/charter/pdf/text_en.pdf
Chapter I,Dignity,Articles 1&4 
Chapter II,Freedoms,Articles 6 & 10-12
Chapter III,Equality,Articles 20-22
Chapter V, Citizens Rights,Articles 39-41,47-50

Saturday, 3 May 2014

The Ukraine: The Slide Towards Civil War-Who Is Really To Blame?

The Ukraine:
The Slide Towards Civil War-Who Is Really To Blame?
CNN, Fox and all other major U.S. media networks have started the blame game.
Almost all have under-reported the deaths of independence supporters in the city of
Odessa and elsewhere. None have mentioned how such deaths were caused in a Trades Union building set ablaze -other than to say that both sides were using incendiary devices. The interim government in Kiev, because of the volatile situation, has not permitted independent media crews to cover events for the West but there are (as yet) unsubstantiated (independent) claims that genocide may have been perpetrated by nationalist Ukrainian forces as they re-took Odessa. Because of a media blackout I cannot substantiate a single media source which is making this claim but in the absence of any mention of a slide to civil war and no media attempt (nor permission granted by the interim Ukrainian authorities in Kiev) it is unwise to speculate before all the facts are independently confirmed.

Genocide and Civil War:
Why It Is Unwise To Speculate

It does appear that major efforts are taking place by the Ukrainian authorities to re-take cities and major towns in the East. To speculate that ultra nationalist forces of a paramilitary nature are deliberately murdering their fellow-Ukrainian citizens (because they do not regard then as 'fellow-citizens' but aliens) would be to invoke memories of a terrible past-involving pogroms against Jews,Gypsies and other minorities in the North and the West of the Ukraine. Once the terminology 'genocide' appears in the world media, it automatically triggers a series of actions. This was why I earlier referred to Rwanda and why the U.S. (and, we now know, the U.N.) in that case, was so hesitant for a period of time, to use this terminology knowing full well the consequences and responsibilities placed on the international community once the word is invoked. It would also immediately force the hand of the U.N. Secretary General to invoke universally agreed international principles against the conduct of genocide and trigger a U.N. General Assembly debate for immediate cessation of hostilities and intervention of an independent force to stop the genocide. It would also be a recognition, officially, that the country is in a state of civil war. It is not at all clear with mass genocide being confirmed (if such was indeed to ever be the case) that the present international coalition in support of the Ukrainian Democrats in Kiev would continue to be sustained at the United Nations. So this is the reason your media service is being 'economical' with the truth. In fact they would be doing The Ukraine country, as a whole, a favor by intervening at this early point because I will relate to you what will likely happen next. As I earlier predicted, the country is, because of recklessness, in a state of civil war. I also said that 'sub-contracted' 'militias' similar to the Syrian Civil War (and, in an earlier time, in the last century,The Spanish Civil War) would be used. I clearly said that both sides would use contracted professionals to conduct a proxy war – if  The Russian Federation did not 'take the bait' with a direct military intervention. All indications, from the Ukrainian government reporting, are that the 'terrorist' blockades were easily over-run. This may sound good news but a more careful analysis would suggest it is anything but that. What is does mean is that Russian 'sub-contracted' special forces and militias from within the Federation have not yet joined the battle. This is extremely bad news for the government in Kiev – which now has to deal with the logistical aftermath of attack knowing that it is operating both in 'unknown' and hostile territory without the consent nor support of the (majority ethnic Russian) local populations.
Iraq:
Ghosts of Past Mistakes – However Worthy The Ideals and Visions for The Country
Former President George W. Bush (Jnr.) and Former Prime Minister of Britain, Tony Blair, both devout Christians, cannot shake off the ghosts of Iraq – so terrible has the outcome of intervention been for the country and it's people as a whole - now in a much worse condition than before the brutal dictatorship of Saddam Hussein was overthrown with the Iran now left holding the balance of power (through Muqtada al-Sadr1– a cleric venerated by most Shias in Iraq, and who is, at present, being prepared in Iran (Qom) as a future Grand Ayatollah to take leadership of that shattered country.) So the outcome in Iraq was totally the opposite of what intervention was (at least publicly) meant to bring about.
Be Careful What You Wish For
We are all familiar with the Chinese saying 'be careful what you wish for'. What I have attempted to do in my analysis of the crisis in the Ukraine is to balance the challenge of the new democrats in Kiev with the expectations of their fellow-countrymen and women in the South and in the East.
Should national elections go ahead in the East with towns and cities under military attack or even worse under military or para-military rule, this will be the spark for insurgency on a massive scale.
At that point we may well see Russian sub-contracted units start to engage Ukrainian nationalists.
Faced with professional units I have serious doubts whether highly motivated Ukrainian nationalists not having this training nor expertise, can hold out – without massive international intervention. So the blame game will then start.
So Who Is To Blame For The Chaos In The Ukraine?
Victoria Nuland and John Kerry will both tell the Europeans 'We told you so!'; 'if you had done things our way, and not gone it alone by forcing The Ukraine to choose between East and West, we could have both had the Kiev nationalists running the whole country - including Crimea and the East – and without redress to this chaos and civil war to which we are all now having to militarily commit to prevent Kiev being left falling into an economic and military abyss inside which it simply cannot cope with nor win.' So Ms. Nuland's expletive deletive2 with regard to the EU may now be beginning to make greater sense to the world as the United States is again being forced to commit to Europe to prevent ethnic and tribal bloodshed (as it did in the Balkans recently and before that, between 1939-1945) and to prevent the EU dragging the whole of Europe over the brink simply to fulfill a vision of creating a monolithic bloc stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific in both directions. Such are the visions of rulers and demagogues throughout all periods in world history – and upon which empires were built and have crumbled into dust.
Do not expect addresses to the nations by local politicians to inform the populations of Europe that the countries are now at war. The assumption being that since everyone is already well-informed then public declarations are unnecessary.



Patrick Emek

amendment and typographical corrections, May 5

1.http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/al-sadr.htm


2.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnTLaRk013E


Wednesday, 30 April 2014

Egypt In Crises:
Senator Leahy Acts To Block Military Aid To Egypt
(The Peace Process With Israel Died Long Before President Mubarak Was Ousted by Fanatics)

Security, Military Aid and The Peace Process
Excuses will be given by apologists for the newest terror and torture State in Africa -Egypt- as to why President Obama's funding package (totaling near to $1bn) should be approved on the grounds of U.S. Security interests in North Africa and the Middle East. With the Russian Federation eagerly eying Egypt to secure a new maritime foothold in the Mediterranean in anticipation of losing it's one base in Syria, can the U.S. really afford not to assist Egypt?
(I refer in this particular blog to Egypt as being a part of the Middle East because it defines itself in identity as an 'Arab' rather than 'African' country and because it's historical, political, religious and economic relations are governed more by it's ties with the Middle East than with the geographic continent of Africa on whose soil  the country is located.  I am unclear as to whether it identifies itself more with the torture regimes of Africa or the Middle East.) 
I would like to first address the peace process with Israel because to many in the West and indeed throughout the world it is very confusing why this process has not consolidated into anything more tangible than the Egyptian government shaking down successive Washington administrations with threats to withdraw from the peace process if more military and financial aid is not forthcoming.
The prospect of The Ukraine escalating into a more serious confrontation is likely to be a bigger factor influencing U.S. Policy toward the new torture and terror junta in Egypt than any threats with regard to peace with Israel. Israel did itself no justice by losing it's way in the corridors of the U.N. Building recently and not being able to get to vote with the U.S. on the motion of Ukraine.
On the matter of new Russian bases in the Mediterranean, Libya is so volatile, the situation in Turkey rapidly deteriorating, Tunisia and Algeria likely to see Al-Qaeda join forces with traditional local opposition militias as they bury their differences to oust both regimes, the U.S has plenty to lose by not shoring up this brutal regime in Egypt – a successor of the previous brutal regime – except this time they are, of course, murdering their opponents who previously held the country in a state of terror.
So what decent choice does the U.S. have in a jungle of predators?
I support Senator Leahy from an ethical and moral viewpoint. History will vindicate his principled stance against foreign aid to so brutal a regime as the one under army strongman and dictator Fattah al-Sisi  in Egypt.   But does President Obama have any choice when likewise held to ransom by torturers, murderers and terrorists?
Local 'terrorists' recently shut down the Federal Administration in the United States until their demands were met – and this was on sovereign U.S. home soil. (I covered that issue in previous blogs.)
How much leverage does the President have when this is happening thousands of kilometers away with the threat to the Southern Mediterranean (Southern Europe) if Russian naval forces 'retake' North Africa? (that is to say, are granted Naval facilities to operate.)
After the loss of Crimea, to further be faced with the prospect of Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean at a time when tensions are heightened would be a matter of great alarm.
The U.S. and it's allies regard the Mediterranean the same way China looks at the South China Seas – and for the same reasons.  Sadly the only leverage the President has in this context is a moral one  to save the lives of those unfortunate Egyptian individuals (mainly Muslim Brotherhood activists) recently condemned to death or to long prison sentences in likely conditions of regular torture,  inhumane and degrading  treatment. I hope that President Obama will insist a halt to show trials which make a mockery of justice and due process, and urge the military junta to halt all actions causing any more suffering to the Egyptian people, because if he cannot do this, then no amount of aid will stop Egypt descending into further violence and revenge killings. On another note I personally believe that he should also intervene to demand the immediate release of ex-President Mohamed Morsi into U.S. or U.N. protection and his (and his family's) safe passage out of Egypt to a country of his own choosing.

So even with yet another junta firmly ensconced in the Middle East, Egypt, will peace with Israel survive?

Lost Opportunities
My take is that peace with Israel died a very long time ago.   It just remained unburied.
Many years ago I was invited by a prestigious but low profile Jewish organization as guest speaker to discuss my experiences in war zones and how I had survived, alone and unarmed.  Now considering the fact that this group usually has some really important VIPs as guest speakers (including the Israeli Ambassador) I was probably just filling a gap for someone who 'got lost' -  in a building similar to U.N. H.Q., famous for it's lack of proper signage - and  where the Israeli delegation probably lost their way and missed the Ukraine vote two weeks ago(!)
The year of my talk was a time before Israeli forces withdrew from the Gaza and West Bank.
During question time I was asked if I thought the peace process would succeed now that a withdrawal was being negotiated. I said that I did not – but did not have the time allocated to go into depth as to why. I would now like to do this because it is more complicated than just withdrawing Israeli forces from 'occupied territories' and assuming the Palestinians and their supporters will just 'see the light of day' and talk turkey.

The Roots Of Modern Anti-Semitism
What I would like to do is to look at the roots of Anti-Semitism in the Middle East – with a particular emphasis on Egypt – but I could be equally talking about Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq or Iran – and indeed I am including the Christian minorities in Syria, Iraq and Egypt within this broad frame of Anti-Semitic perception as they (in the main) share these same attitudes with their fellow-Muslim citizens.
It's only when you understand this can you appreciate why peace in the Middle East between Arab and Jew is a journey which could take another 500-1000 years – if at all within this time frame - as the process itself has not even started.
The Jewish 'Conspiracy'
Before I discuss this I would like to explore where the seeds of part of this conspiracy theory came from and how they have permeated Egyptian culture (with a vengeance) for over half a century.
I would like to borrow from an excellent article by Samuel Tadros to briefly summarize the origins of modern Egyptian Anti-Semitism and how such deep rooted beliefs have made any peace process an impossibility.
The Dreyfus Affair6 (1894)
The first is the introduction of Anti-Semitic programming by French Catholic missionaries in the Levant during the 1920s.  Indeed I am familiar with the Anti-Semitic sentiments of many Catholic Orders which were prevalent (some might even say widespread) in European countries and in the U.S. during the 1960s,70s and 80s.   As the power of the Church over secular society was brought into check this correlated with a decline in the public (and School) indoctrination of Anti-Semitic ideology by religious Orders within local communities. As new generations were not being indoctrinated into the ideology of hate one finds today the strongest Anti-Semitic viewpoints being expressed and promulgated amongst communities which have voluntarily chosen to isolate themselves from Christian 'revisionists' and 'collaborators' and who explain to their brethren the decline in Anti-Semitism as part of a national (and international) Jewish conspiracy to undermine 'pure' Christian values in the world.  This very same viewpoint is both exchanged with and shared by Egyptian society – but it exists in mainstream and not amongst fringe elements and is subscribed to by both Muslims and Arab Christians.
Protocols of The Elders of Zion and 'Mein Kampf' (Adolf Hitler)
The second phase of modern Anti-Semitism in the Arab world took place between the late 1920s and 1945 – when French racism was replaced by Nazi ideology in the Arab World.
Egypt was a country of transit and of welcome and refuge for many Nazis fleeing the collapse of the Third Reich.  It is historically documented how former German (Nazi) scientists developed Egypt's first ballistic missile program – the intention was to deliver deadly poison gas to destroy 'the Jewish State' from sites in Egypt.  In addition and linked to the latter, on the coming to power of the then popular Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt's Ministry of Information engaged one of Hitler's leading Anti-Semitic propagandists to consolidate an ideology based on an amalgam of Hitler's Anti-Semitic theory and that of the 'eternal' Jew as the reasons for all of Egypt's woes. As a propagandist he was very effective in his tasks, having learnt skills developed and perfected during the era of the Third Reich.
''Egypt's modern history is the story of continued failure:failure to modernize, failure to deliver the promised salvation to the masses, failure to better their miserable conditions, and above all the failure of a country to find the place it believes it deserves under the sun. Defeats, failures and disappointments have taken their toll on the people. Only the existence of a Jewish conspiracy against, Egypt, Arabs, and Islam can offer them solace. Only by believing that the Jews are responsible for their miserable conditions can they find comfort''1;or so they are led to believe by the political and military elite who have squandered Egypt's financial resources and, like the Pharaohs of old, emptied the coffers of the country for the betterment of themselves and their families.

This blog is not meant as an exhaustive article about Arab-Israeli conflict (of which enough books, articles and research papers have now been written to fill 20 Libraries of Congress) but to give the layperson some start point of what ideologies and events are today being manipulated by extremists and hate mongers to shape Anti-Semitic thinking amongst the young generations in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan and, of course, it almost goes without saying, inside countries considered the main instigators and financiers of hate, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
You cannot, however, understand the Middle East today without understanding the role of propaganda in shaping hatred against Jews throughout the region.
Haj Mohammed Effendi Amin el-Husseini,Grand Mufti of Jerusalem and Other Key Elements of Racism
Other elements which can be identified as in part responsible for Anti-Semitism are the writings of the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Pan-Arab Nationalist and Nazi collaborator, Haj Mohammed Effendi Amin el-Husseini (1897-1974) 2 ;the Damascus Blood Libel Affair of 18403;The Protocols of The Elders of Zion (1903)4;and a shovel full (or more so, a truck load) of conspiracy theories have grown up around 9/11, all of which fuel Anti-Semitism in the Arab world5.
9/11-The Twin Towers Tragedy and Conspiracy Theories
The issue the racists have with 9/11 is that they could not believe that so few Jews would not  be working at one of New York's top financial centers - they expected most of the dead to be named Silver, Gold, Frank and Stein instead of  folk like Smith and Jones and thousands of other individuals (Christians, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Muslims, Atheists) from the U.S. and all over the world who were just so unlucky to have turned up for work at the wrong place at the wrong time on the wrong day of the year and on the wrong floor level.  I have no doubt that people who happened to be Jewish lost their lives as did individuals from many other faiths and races and countries in the world.  Because of this a whole conspiracy industry has grown up to explain why such was (or indeed in their opinion was not) the case.
By the time you read through the references below, you may well begin to appreciate why and how both Christian and Arab schoolchildren are being indoctrinated with lessons of hate not just in the Middle East but also in Islamic schools, worldwide, making it impossible for a climate of rational dialog to exist between Muslim and Jew, Israeli and Palestinian.  For example, when you have prominent Muslim clerics and Muslim Rulers actually endorsing in the opening page  the authenticity of 'Protocols of the Elders of Zion'  (printed incidentally in Saudi Arabia and Iran and posted worldwide or available for download from religious and Jihadi Islamist sites) then you can understand why successive generations of Christian and Arabs in the Middle East and North Africa are programmed from childhood to hate.
The theme of this article is Egypt and the debate over U.S. military aid.
I have however broadened it to explain as to why, no matter how much money is provided, officially approved and endorsed hate literature, which is part of mainstream Muslim (and indeed Christian) societies in the Middle East, make the road toward long-term peace just that more difficult to find.
I could not put this into the context of a single question asked at my talk as I had to give an answer in less than one minute.
Missed Opportunities or Just Opportunistic Feudal Rulers?
Sometimes you really have to take risks or take the initiative in order for anything to change.
This is the case with peace in the Middle East.  The problem in the Middle East - with regard to a final border settlement between Palestine and Israel - is that none of the corrupt leaders in the Arab world actually want anything to change.   If the Palestinian issue was resolved tomorrow, the day after, most would be swept from power as their masses, having no other 'indoctrinated' 'common' enemy, would immediately realize the reasons for their impoverishment are the absence of good governance, the squandering of all the financial resources in favor of elite minorities, runaway levels of corrupt practices and patronage not reflective of  the 21st century nor of the talents and potentials of local individual citizens but a manipulation of all the wealth and resources of such countries and states and kingdoms both amongst  and in favor of  ruling elite tribes and clans with all justifications for status quos extracted from interpretations of the Koran, all tailored, adjusted and re-adjusted to suit local ruling dynastic tribal requirements.  In many respects, it's no different from the European medieval feudal concepts of the Kings and Queens divine (God-given) right to rule.
Where any one group in a society believe that they have a divine right to subjugate the impoverished majority with no checks and balances on the scope of their power and influence, then do not expect the disenfranchised to stand by, meekly, forever, regardless of the technologies of State control.  Empires with the most advanced State apparatus for their own day have crumbled when the impoverished masses could no longer take the punishment.   This is what history has taught us.  But we rarely learn from history.

So this is Egypt today. When you take the Israel-Palestine conflict out of the picture, the Emperor has no clothes7.


article amended 1st May
addendum May 3

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/sen-leahy-blocks-us-aid-to-egypt-to-protest-nations-appalling-abuse-of-justice-system/2014/04/29/4d5fe0fc-cfe3-11e3-937f-d3026234b51c_story.html


1.The American Interest:'The Sources of Egyptian Anti-Semitism; by Samuel Tadros
http://www-the-american-interest.com/articles/2014/04/21/the-sources-of-egyptian-anti-semitism
if you cannot reach the article at this website try    http://www.the-american-interest.com/
(then search for Samuel Tadros)


4.http://www.ushmm.org/wlc/en/article.php?ModuleId=10007058




7.The Emperor's New Clothes, by Hans Christian Andersen
http://www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html









Tuesday, 29 April 2014

The Ukraine:
Why Russia Will Act Sooner Rather Than Later

There are many practical considerations for the Russian Federation to take into account when looking at The Ukraine:

Proximity To Russia
The first, goes without saying, is the border proximity.  The Ukraine shares a vast border with Russia and any instability along it - or even nationalist Ukrainian border forces, with the tacit support of the European Union, would pose a threat not just to Russia but to the integrity of the Federation itself.
Ethnic Cleansing, Ultra-Nationalism and the Origins of Ukrainian Anti-Russian Racism
Secondly, as I earlier mentioned, a humanitarian crisis where a people are perceived to have been deprived of their language, mediums of communications (broadcasting and the press) and, to take the Baltic provinces as an example, treated as second-class citizens, would be unacceptable to Russian nationalism.  What is little unserstood in the West is that if you were a Ukrainian (non-Russian extract) national seeking work in St Petersburg or Moscow or anywhere else inside Russia proper, you were/are effectively treated as a second class citizen coming from a Russian 'colony' and you did not 'enjoy' the same rights nor Police nor legal protection as a Russian citizen.  So for Russia to now complain about reverse discrimination from a people who have had to endure Russian 'imperial' domination, it is not at all evident to me that the Ukrainian nationalists did not learn their hatred and nationalism from being deprived of their own heritage for so long by Imperial Russia, the USSR and the existing Russian Federation. Yes of course I could (and have) argued that tribalism, nationalism, racism and religious intolerance are abhorrent, but Russia has never been a shining beacon (or even strived for racial justice and equality) of racial nor religious tolerance for any of it's satellites to emulate.  The only messages being sent to the colonies over the centuries were those of intolerance and bigotry.    Let's be very clear what I am saying.   I would not for one second justify the restrictions on the rights of Russian minorities within the Ukraine as the new Democrats in Kiev will have a herculean task in changing the mindset of an ultra-nationalist culture-which by the way has been allowed to thrive until recently (there is recent clampdown on far-right ultra-nationalist organisations since the Kiev Spring uprising) within the borders of Russia itself for reasons of political sentiment and nationalistic expediency.  What I am saying is that if Russia and past administrations through the centuries had set a better example, it would not have found so many units eager to volunteer to fight alongside the Nazis when Hitler invaded the Ukraine.  History will support my assertion in this regard.
Internally Displaced Refugees, Ethnic Russians In Flight As Refugees
Thirdly, a refugee crisis of an Ethiopian famine, Rwandan or Biafran Civil War scale will destroy the current Russian economy and could, potentially, cause the Federation itself to implode as such would have a dominoes effect throughout the entire region.
The effects within the Ukraine will be equally distortive as it is highly unlikely that West European countries (apart from the United States) will open their borders to millions of Ukrainian citizens fleeing for safety and protection for themselves and their families.
The Energy Crisis
Europe, far from being immune, would suffer greatly if the gas 'tap' is turned 'off'.
However, thanks to another invention called electricity and the fact that many homes in different parts of Europe have dual energy facilities, the hardship will not be uniform.
At this point in time, emergency contingency measures should be being made to prepare for such a crisis across a range of energy fronts in Western Europe.
The energy crisis, in this scenario, would be worst for the first 4-6 years, whereupon other options are likely to become available.
Diversification of The Russian Economy From Western Europe-Will This Save The Federation From Disintegration?
Russia will no doubt attempt to diversify it's energy and investment interests but it's earned resources will still be sinking into the black hole of a civil war in the Ukraine – so this is a hopelessly unwinnable situation - the prospect of fighting a protracted guerilla campaign across so vast a territory with, as Hitler and Napoleon found out, no end in sight.
Neither will the West come out unscathed. Denial to Russian markets for investment, raw materials and exports will most likely cause financial hardship in West European economies. It could be far worse than this.
Unfortunately even while Africa is developing, it is not fast enough for it to take up the 'slack' lost with the absence of high-value lucrative, organised , politically and financially sound Russian markets and bi-lateral investment opportunities.
So there are no immediate short-term visible winners from such a face-off in the Ukraine.

As Secretary of State John Kerry tried recently to achieve, what is needed is space for diplomacy with all sides refraining from escalating a volatile situation which could quickly slide out of control and use such space to give peace a chance.


Patrick Emek

Saturday, 26 April 2014

The  Canonization of  Pope Saint John XXIII and of Pope Saint John Paul II

I am going to go off-script to briefly mention the Canonization of Pope Saint John XXIII and of Pope Saint John Paul II.
My deceased parents regarded John XXIII, during his Papacy, as a living saint.
His Vatican Reform Council and the changes which took place and those he anticipated were, for that time, revolutionary.   He was suspect, by some, of being a 'left-leaning' sympathiser (a euphemism for 'Communist') so radical were his views concerning the equality of man, the role of women in society and many other issues which have now become part of everyday mainstream life throughout the democratic Christian and parts of the non-Christian world where free speech and multifaith tolerance are practiced.
Don't believe the media hype - which will more focus and praise on John Paul II (whose canonization has been questioned as not meritorious and politically rather than spiritually rooted) rather than one who espoused the ideals of mankind and one who was truly striving for the poor, for equality, for human rights and justice for all, worldwide.
Albeit the fact that canonization of Pope John XXIII  is probably a political 'trade-off', I hope that the public and researchers will, in future decades, examine the lives of both in great detail, that the Vatican will open it's private vault files - hence the world can truly decide the merits of each case.

I don't know if John XXIII was a living saint but he was certainly a very decent human being – which is more than can be said for more than 99% of today's so-called 'spiritual' leaders.


Patrick Emek

typographical corrections on 28th September, 2014

Pope John XXIII - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_John_XXIII
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canonization

'Russia Today' – 'The Bullhorn' of President Putin (Secretary of State, John Kerry)

I was going to write this blog several months ago but hesitated for several reasons:

The first was my appreciation of the principles of good journalism and the first motto which is that the journalists or broadcasters or news networks should, themselves, never be 'making' the news.
Secondly the absence of good journalism and programming throughout Africa , Asia and the Middle East is so profound that it is almost tantamount to torture. But to raise the issues of why would be to open up a can of worms which most in broadcasting in the Arab world (for example) would not just not understand but grossly misinterpret to the point of lethal outcome.
Thirdly and most important of all, television still remains the greatest instrument of propaganda yet invented. Having said this, it is being challenged in the information crossover to multiple portable media devices – including the internet – which present opportunities for societal controls hitherto unrealised as such were never thought possible in other centuries.
To give just one hypothetical example and leave it at that:
Whoever thought in previous decades that it might be possible to identify, through satellite car tracking devices, the exact location of your enemy, through his car Navsat and to 'engineer' signals through his car to cause massive systems failure most likely resulting in a fatal crash on a treacherous mountain pass?
So the implications of the crossover from television to multiple streaming devices, and their amalgamations present profound implications.
Indeed we have gone even beyond this with the advent of molecular electronics and the ability to insert rudimentary systems as 'sleepers'. In the case of our hypothetical enemy target, systems developed for social interaction and communication can be turned into lethal devices at the flick of a switch. It's the same principle as saying that a sharp knife can be used to slice a loaf of bread or cause a fatal injury depending on how it is used.
Do you trust Dilma Vana Rousseff heading up an Apartheid regime in Brazil (where incidentally more journalists have been murdered over the past two decades than in almost any other part of the world – excluding war zones) or do you trust President Putin or even President Barack Obama to control the internet and not to use it, in the event of a national emergency as an instrument of war or for other purposes?;or perhaps you would prefer to trust North Korea or Iran or Saudi Arabia with such profound power?;or perhaps some other Gulf State where until 50 years ago they were happily living nomadic or semi-nomadic lives until black gold transformed their world – but not their appreciation of the history of the modern world and how it got to where it is? Perhaps The Congo or Rwanda or Nigeria could be trusted as developed enough to even understand the profound implications of what exactly they would have management of so as not to misuse it?
Or indeed is the information revolution placing potential 'nuclear bombs' in the hands of 'children'?
With the ability of media services of countries such as China, Russia and The United States to reach into the very pocket of our hypothetical enemy target, to synergize and integrate information data, propaganda, electronic engineering and, with Space-based systems able to materialize and coalesce, all to become very real and very deadly.
Even before the battles commence, the war has already been lost if the total integration of systems (as pre-planned for decades to deny an opponent operational capability at the very least) has been successfully activated and the objectives achieved.
So do we really have anything to fear from 'Russia Today'?  In an era of peacetime, absolutely nothing.
In the event of a major world crisis which potentially could pit two global superpowers against each other, the answer is most certainly we do - but only to the extent of any networks' foreign correspondents operating, albeit legitimately, 'behind enemy lines' to cover the conflict 'from the other side'.
But was John Kerry wise to highlight 'Russia Today'?
In my opinion, there are very special times when, in today's interconnected world, one might seek to 'outlaw' specific media elements.
The first is if a country is on the verge of war with an opponent which matches it's own military capabilities.
It's inconceivable to have a successful propaganda medium operating from within your midst if you are on the brink of war with a country which equals your own potential in military capabilities.
In my opinion, 'Russia Today' is the most intelligent, successful, and capable of all propaganda broadcasting networks in the developed world at this present point in time.  For this reason alone it would be the first I would seek to isolate from within the United States if I thought the prospect of  (unconventional) war with Russia was more likely a possibility  than not.
This would not of course stop worldwide broadcasting but would result in a situation where compatriots were led to believe that it would be 'unpatriotic' for most (except approved government sources) to be 'taking feed' from a 'hostile' 'enemy' propaganda network. The 'doomsday' solution would be a legal ban on it's availability – but there is a clear risk here that the United States would be perceived in the same light as North Korea and Iran- two notorious countries which jam and ban, imprison and execute their citizens who listen to and watch foreign broadcasts deemed 'Satanic'.  Apart from being first and foremost unconstitutional, it would be unwise and nonsensical in today's interconnected global information village.   So under this very special pre-war condition (and only for national security reasons) would it be justified to highlight a foreign broadcasting network – such as 'Russia Today' – in your midst in order to (voluntarily and patriotically) deny local access.  It's a very dangerous step because of the implications and repercussions on U.S. Media networks likewise operating abroad (which provide their listeners and viewers with information, of course, and not reckless propaganda) can also be equally profound.
So it does appear that the Ukraine could be going  in the direction which all the indicators would suggest.
Perhaps history is more understanding of the 'triggers' which spark world wars than those 'caught up in the moment'?
I still to this day cannot understand (apart from imperialism, political intrigue, nationalism and all of the other factors Machiavelli understood all too well) why the First and Second world wars started. I have some difficulty understanding the characters of Pol Pot, Hitler, Josef Stalin, Khomeini in Iran; the tribalism, nationalism and racism which tore Yugoslavia apart and, as with Rwanda, Europe reverted to it's dark past - with a world-wide audience in network attendance.
The Ukraine is a very special case and is an identifiable trigger for a potential global conflict for the reasons mentioned in earlier blogs.
A phrase which I always remember reading in a book about history as child, written in, I believe, The Times of London, England, in the late 1800s and which has forever since been popularly quoted and misquoted: 'The fate of Serbia is not worth the dead bones of a single British Grenadier' [ a misquote of Otto von Bismarck, the 19th Century German Chancellor at the time of the Congress of Berlin (1878), who dismissed the Balkans as “not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian Grenadier” ]

There are indeed parts of the world which have unique qualities and attributes, not as special in themselves, but special in their profound abilities to influence world events with a reach far beyond their own military and financial and cultural capabilities.

One fascinating fact is that we might not even be 'officially'  informed if an unconventional Third World War had actually begun. We might see all indications of world wide policy shifts and military deployments but no formal endorsement by any world leader.   Indeed military deployments could well be cosmetic – with the real war taking place across the full range of the electromagnetic spectrum – with not a single regular force deployment for adversarial conflict in the zone of action by either superpower.  Not that conventional forces are, as yet, outdated, but, as with the horse in The Great War, their presence today is more symbolic to consolidate security and gain on the ground than actually required to win a war – at least between superpowers.


Patrick Emek


www.colorado.edu/IBS/PEC/johno/pub/lboro.pdf 

revised with an amendment on both  26th and 27thApril 

Thursday, 24 April 2014

The Ukraine: A  Bridge Too Far ?
I said in a previous blog that the actions of Russia could push the Ukraine into an economic abyss.
Beyond that, ethnic cleansing will create refugees fleeing into Russia in numbers and tragic scenes we normally associate with Africa and the Middle East.
What does the future now hold in store for the European Union, The Ukraine, America and Russia?
The above assumes that Russia will just 'stand by' while 'over-motivated' Ukrainian nationalist forces
supported by the Ukrainian Air Force overrun the 'terrorists' in the Eastern Ukraine.
The likelihood is that Russia will, sooner rather than later, either directly or indirectly (utilizing
'contracted' special units) intervene before such a refugee catastrophe and mayhem takes shape on and over it's border with The Ukraine.  The key question is will NATO join the fray or just let Russian forces 'fight it out' – perhaps with years of guerrilla warfare as both sides attempt to wrest control of the country caught up in the vortex of civil war. We could well have a scenario similar to that of the historic Civil War in  Spain (The Spanish Civil War, July 1936-April 1939) – with fighting brigades from the four corners of the globe being encouraged to show support for the legitimate government in Kiev.   Likewise Russia will also mobilize patriotic fervor amongst it's citizens throughout the Federation so as to ensure that a proxy war takes shape with years (perhaps decades) of instability ensuing.
Lets be clear about why the Soviet Union lost the Cold War: it was outspent by the West to such an extent that standards of living were actually going backwards as the USSR desperately struggled to keep pace with military innovations, nuclear arms and the SDI program and last but not least, the economic aspirations and expectations of it's own people.  Likewise there is some confidence that if push comes to shove, the West can 'outspend' Russia, ultimately, on a proxy war in the Ukraine.  And what about the plight of all of the Ukrainian people during years or decades of  future conflict?
As I said earlier, without the East and Crimea the Ukraine literally reverts to being just a breadbasket (not a basket case – at least not yet).
I remember at my childhood school being taught the history of this vast territory and I imagined the vast expanses of wheat lands stretching across the plains until ultimately meeting the border of Russia. (My history teachers also wrote history books, had studied such areas in very great detail, so I had an appreciation of history from people who knew what they were talking about.)
The immediate future for all of the people living in this region – whose ancestors have seen so much terror, brutality and hardship throughout the centuries - looks very bleak.
The lessons of history which existing superpowers have learnt is that the Russian people are (historically) very resilient to pain and suffering and hardship and are in 'for the long-haul'.   In a nuclear age, the thought of direct conflict between superpowers, even using conventional tactics, with the potential for escalation, is unthinkable.   The only other options are therefore unconventional – and there is a toolbox full of unconventional scenarios – which the people of the Ukraine will, sadly, because of recklessness, feel unleashed with maximum and merciless efficiency - by all sides.

I remember a NATO-sponsored visit to the Ardennes Forest many decades ago.  It was a beautiful summer's day.   I recall there was a well-mannered and convivial gentleman, probably African in origin, selling trinkets nearby at the side of a road where we disembarked.  I cheerfully greeted him and we briefly conversed and agreed about the glorious weather surrounding us.  As I looked across the vineyards so beautiful and placid in the sweltering afternoon, with just a very gentle breeze wafting through the trees, and I looked into the rich brown soil, I could not but help reflect on the millions who had perished over the centuries amid such and similar fields of tranquility throughout Europe – men, women, children, babies (born and unborn), who were just obliterated and never had the chance to know what it was all about.
Their epitaph should read 'they died for a cause' – but most would have preferred to have lived happily with their families and loved ones, if they had not been ordered (or influenced) to hate.
This is the Russia, this is The Ukraine, this is the Europe those fortunate enough having escaped to the 'Promised Land', America, left behind, forever; and believe me, if you were caught up in tribalism, famine, clan and civil warfare, racialism, Apartheid, Pogroms in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and elsewhere in Europe, America is, or should I say, was, the Promised Land.
Lets just hope (and if you are religious, you might pray) that it never comes to this again in Europe and that all will step back from the brink of the abyss, reflect, and take shelter from the coming storm.


Patrick Emek

typographical corrections on 25th April 2014

Blog Archive