The Ukraine:
Why Russia Will Act Sooner Rather Than Later

There are many practical considerations for the Russian Federation to take into account when looking at The Ukraine:

Proximity To Russia

The first, goes without saying, is the border proximity.  The Ukraine shares a vast border with Russia and any instability along it - or even nationalist Ukrainian border forces, with the tacit support of the European Union, would pose a threat not just to Russia but to the integrity of the Federation itself.

Ethnic Cleansing, Ultra-Nationalism and the Origins of Ukrainian Anti-Russian Racism

Secondly, as I earlier mentioned, a humanitarian crisis where a people are perceived to have been deprived of their language, mediums of communications (broadcasting and the press) and, to take the Baltic provinces as an example, treated as second-class citizens, would be unacceptable to Russian nationalism.  What is little unserstood in the West is that if you were a Ukrainian (non-Russian extract) national seeking work in St Petersburg or Moscow or anywhere else inside Russia proper, you were/are effectively treated as a second class citizen coming from a Russian 'colony' and you did not 'enjoy' the same rights nor Police nor legal protection as a Russian citizen.  So for Russia to now complain about reverse discrimination from a people who have had to endure Russian 'imperial' domination, it is not at all evident to me that the Ukrainian nationalists did not learn their hatred and nationalism from being deprived of their own heritage for so long by Imperial Russia, the USSR and the existing Russian Federation. Yes of course I could (and have) argued that tribalism, nationalism, racism and religious intolerance are abhorrent, but Russia has never been a shining beacon (or even strived for racial justice and equality) of racial nor religious tolerance for any of it's satellites to emulate.  The only messages being sent to the colonies over the centuries were those of intolerance and bigotry.    Let's be very clear what I am saying.   I would not for one second justify the restrictions on the rights of Russian minorities within the Ukraine as the new Democrats in Kiev will have a herculean task in changing the mindset of an ultra-nationalist culture-which by the way has been allowed to thrive until recently (there is recent clampdown on far-right ultra-nationalist organisations since the Kiev Spring uprising) within the borders of Russia itself for reasons of political sentiment and nationalistic expediency.  What I am saying is that if Russia and past administrations through the centuries had set a better example, it would not have found so many units eager to volunteer to fight alongside the Nazis when Hitler invaded the Ukraine.  History will support my assertion in this regard.

Internally Displaced Refugees, Ethnic Russians In Flight As Refugees

Thirdly, a refugee crisis of an Ethiopian famine, Rwandan or Biafran Civil War scale will destroy the current Russian economy and could, potentially, cause the Federation itself to implode as such would have a dominoes effect throughout the entire region.

The effects within the Ukraine will be equally distortive as it is highly unlikely that West European countries (apart from the United States) will open their borders to millions of Ukrainian citizens fleeing for safety and protection for themselves and their families.

The Energy Crisis

Europe, far from being immune, would suffer greatly if the gas 'tap' is turned 'off'.

However, thanks to another invention called electricity and the fact that many homes in different parts of Europe have dual energy facilities, the hardship will not be uniform.

At this point in time, emergency contingency measures should be being made to prepare for such a crisis across a range of energy fronts in Western Europe.

The energy crisis, in this scenario, would be worst for the first 4-6 years, whereupon other options are likely to become available.

Diversification of The Russian Economy From Western Europe-Will This Save The Federation From Disintegration?

Russia will no doubt attempt to diversify it's energy and investment interests but it's earned resources will still be sinking into the black hole of a civil war in the Ukraine – so this is a hopelessly unwinnable situation - the prospect of fighting a protracted guerilla campaign across so vast a territory with, as Hitler and Napoleon found out, no end in sight.

Neither will the West come out unscathed. Denial to Russian markets for investment, raw materials and exports will most likely cause financial hardship in West European economies. It could be far worse than this.

Unfortunately even while Africa is developing, it is not fast enough for it to take up the 'slack' lost with the absence of high-value lucrative, organised , politically and financially sound Russian markets and bi-lateral investment opportunities.

So there are no immediate short-term visible winners from such a face-off in the Ukraine.

As Secretary of State John Kerry tried recently to achieve, what is needed is space for diplomacy with all sides refraining from escalating a volatile situation which could quickly slide out of control and use such space to give peace a chance.

Patrick Emek