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Monday, 7 December 2015

Leishmaniasis FAQs


What is leishmaniasis?

Leishmaniasis is a parasitic disease that is found in parts of the tropics, subtropics, and southern Europe. Leishmaniasis is caused by infection with Leishmania parasites, which are spread by the bite of infected sand flies. There are several different forms of leishmaniasis in people. The most common forms are cutaneous leishmaniasis, which causes skin sores, and visceral leishmaniasis, which affects several internal organs (usually spleen, liver, and bone marrow).

What are the symptoms and signs of cutaneous leishmaniasis?

Some people have a silent infection, without any symptoms or signs. People who develop clinical evidence of infection have one or more sores on their skin. The sores can change in size and appearance over time. The sores may start out as papules (bumps) or nodules (lumps) and may end up as ulcers (like a volcano, with a raised edge and central crater); skin ulcers may be covered by scab or crust. The sores usually are painless but can be painful. Some people have swollen glands near the sores (for example, under the arm, if the sores are on the arm or hand).

What are the symptoms and signs of visceral leishmaniasis?

Some people have a silent infection, without any symptoms or signs. People who develop clinical evidence of infection usually have fever, weight loss, enlargement (swelling) of the spleen and liver, and abnormal blood tests. People may have low blood counts, including a low red blood cell count (anemia), a low white blood cell count (leukopenia), and a low platelet count (thrombocytopenia).

How common is leishmaniasis in the world?

The number of new cases per year is not known with certainty. For cutaneous leishmaniasis, estimates of the number of cases range from approximately 0.7 million (700,000) to 1.2 million (1,200,000). For visceral leishmaniasis, estimates of the number of cases range from approximately 0.2 million (200,000) to 0.4 million (400,000).

In what parts of the world is leishmaniasis found?

In the Old World (the Eastern Hemisphere), leishmaniasis is found in some parts of Asia, the Middle East, Africa (particularly in the tropical region and North Africa, with some cases elsewhere), and southern Europe. It is not found in Australia or the Pacific Islands.
In the New World (the Western Hemisphere), leishmaniasis is found in some parts of Mexico, Central America, and South America. It is not found in Chile or Uruguay.
Overall, leishmaniasis is found in parts of more than 90 countries. The cases of leishmaniasis evaluated in the United States reflect travel and immigration patterns. For example, many of the cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in U.S. civilian travelers have been acquired in common tourist destinations in Latin America, such as in Costa Rica. U.S. military personnel have become infected in various countries, such as Iraq and Afghanistan

Is leishmaniasis found in the United States?

Not usually. Almost all of the cases of leishmaniasis diagnosed in the United States are in people who became infected while traveling or living in other countries.
Occasional cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis have been acquired in Texas and Oklahoma. No cases of visceral leishmaniasis are known to have been acquired in the United States.

How do people get infected with Leishmania parasites?

The main way is through the bite of infected female phlebotomine sand flies. Sand flies become infected by sucking blood from an infected animal or person. People might not realize that sand flies are present because:
  • They do not make any noise;
  • They are small: they are only about one third the size of typical mosquitoes or even smaller;
  • Their bites might not be noticed (the bites can be painless or painful).
Sand flies usually are most active in twilight, evening, and night-time hours (from dusk to dawn). Although sand flies are less active during the hottest time of the day, they may bite if they are disturbed (for example, if a person brushes up against the trunk of a tree or other site where sand flies are resting).
Some types (species) of Leishmania parasites also may be spread via contaminated needles (needle sharing) or blood transfusions. Congenital transmission (spread from a pregnant woman to her baby) has been reported.

Who is at risk for Leishmania infection?

People of all ages are at risk for infection if they live or travel where leishmaniasis is found. Leishmaniasis usually is more common in rural than in urban areas, but it is found in the outskirts of some cities. The transmission risk is highest from dusk to dawn because this is when sand flies generally are the most active. Examples of people who may have an increased risk for infection (especially with the cutaneous form) include adventure travelers, ecotourists, Peace Corps volunteers, missionaries, soldiers, ornithologists (people who study birds), and other people who do research (or are active) outdoors at night/twilight.

If I were bitten by an infected sand fly, when would leishmaniasis develop?

Some people have a silent infection, without any symptoms or signs.
The skin sores of cutaneous leishmaniasis usually develop within a few weeks or months of the sand fly bite.
People with visceral leishmaniasis usually become sick within months (sometimes as long as years) of when they were bitten.

What should I do if I think I might have leishmaniasis?

See your health care provider. Be sure to say where you have traveled and to mention the possibility of leishmaniasis.

How is leishmaniasis diagnosed?

The first steps are to check if you have been in a part of the world where leishmaniasis is found and if you have any symptoms or signs that might be from leishmaniasis.
CDC staff can advise your health care provider and can help with the laboratory testing for leishmaniasis. Tissue specimens—for example, from skin sores (for cutaneous leishmaniasis) or from bone marrow (for visceral leishmaniasis)—can be examined for the parasite under a microscope, in special cultures, and in other ways.
Blood tests that detect antibody (an immune response) to the parasite can be helpful for cases of visceral leishmaniasis; tests to look for the parasite itself usually also are done.

Does leishmaniasis have to be treated?

Your health care provider can talk with CDC staff about whether your case of leishmaniasis should be treated and, if so, with what type of therapy.
The skin sores of cutaneous leishmaniasis usually heal on their own, even without treatment. But this can take months or even years, and the sores can leave ugly scars. Another potential concern applies to some (not all) types of the parasite found in parts of Latin America: certain types might spread from the skin and cause sores in the mucous membranes of the nose, mouth, or throat (mucosal leishmaniasis). Mucosal leishmaniasis might not be noticed until years after the original sores healed. The best way to prevent mucosal leishmaniasis is to ensure adequate treatment of the cutaneous infection.
If not treated, severe (advanced) cases of visceral leishmaniasis typically are fatal.

I plan to travel to an area of the world where leishmaniasis is found. What can I do to prevent infection?

No vaccines or drugs to prevent infection are available. The best way for travelers to prevent infection is to protect themselves from sand fly bites. To decrease the risk of being bitten, follow these preventive measures:
Avoid outdoor activities, especially from dusk to dawn, when sand flies generally are the most active.
When outdoors (or in unprotected quarters):
  • Minimize the amount of exposed (uncovered) skin. To the extent that is tolerable in the climate, wear long-sleeved shirts, long pants, and socks; and tuck your shirt into your pants. (See below about wearing insecticide-treated clothing.)
  • Apply insect repellent to exposed skin and under the ends of sleeves and pant legs. Follow the instructions on the label of the repellent. The most effective repellents generally are those that contain the chemical DEET (N,N-diethylmetatoluamide).
When indoors:
  • Stay in well-screened or air-conditioned areas.
  • Keep in mind that sand flies are much smaller than mosquitoes and therefore can get through smaller holes.
  • Spray living/sleeping areas with an insecticide to kill insects.
  • If you are not sleeping in a well-screened or air-conditioned area, use a bed net and tuck it under your mattress. If possible, use a bed net that has been soaked in or sprayed with a pyrethroid-containing insecticide. The same treatment can be applied to screens, curtains, sheets, and clothing (clothing should be retreated after five washings).
NOTE:
Bed nets, repellents, and insecticides should be purchased before traveling and can be found in hardware, camping, and military surplus stores. Bed nets and clothing that already have been treated with a pyrethroid-containing insecticide also are commercially available.

If I have already had leishmaniasis, could I get it again?

Yes. Some people have had cutaneous leishmaniasis more than once. Therefore, you should follow the preventive measures listed above whenever you are in an area where leishmaniasis is found.

This information is not meant to be used for self-diagnosis or as a substitute for consultation with a health care provider. If you have any questions about the parasites described above or think that you may have a parasitic infection, consult a health care provider.
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Friday, 6 November 2015

Blessed and Seasons Greetings To All Of Goodwill Worldwide

At a time of the year when Forbes, Time Magazine, CNN, Fox and all the mainstream media are publishing their 'Persons Of The Year' I didn't want you to be left out with my 'take' on this event (at least, not for this year!)

Rather than add another horror from a year of turbulence, please find below a reprint of my chosen external article of the year.
[This is the only one I could find which reflects the true spirit of the Christian Season and of this year so for this reason alone I encourage you to visit the website (and its related links and named individuals) over the Festive Season.]

Patrick Emek
(November 2015)


(Below is a reprint.
Please visit the website and related links over the Festive Season)

Coptic Church Canonizes The 21 Christians Murdered By Isis In Libya

     The Coptic Orthodox Church has announced that the 21 Egyptian Christians murdered by the Islamic State in Libya will be commemorated in its Church calendar as martyrs and saints.
Coptic Orthodox Pope Tawadros II said that the names of the 21 martyrs beheaded by ISIS on February 14 will be inserted into the Coptic Synaxarium, the Oriental Church’s official list of Martyrs, a procedure similar to canonization in the Latin Church.
An icon of the 21 martyrs, drawn by Tony Rezk, will be the official image to commemorate their supreme witness (accompanying photo).
The Islamic State terror group released a video on February 15 showing the brutal beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians who had previously been kidnapped in Libya. The Egyptian Christians were lined up along a beach and abruptly beheaded in the graphic five-minute video. The Islamic State’s Al Hayat Media produced the Libya video titled, “A Message Signed with Blood to the Nation of the Cross.”
Pope Francis denounced the murders and called the Christians “martyrs” who were “killed simply because they were Christians.” The Pope also remarked that their last words were: “Jesus, help me!”
“The blood of our Christian brothers and sisters is a witness that cries out to be heard,” the Pope said.
“It makes no difference whether they be Catholics, Orthodox, Copts or Protestants,” the Pope continued. “They are Christians! Their blood is one and the same. Their blood confesses Christ.”
The recent murders in Libya have driven home to Europeans the proximity of the Islamic State to Europe, moving them to high alert and the mobilization of security forces. At the same time, the heroic witness of those who died has also strengthened the faith of many.
Beshir Kamel, brother of two of the Coptic martyrs, said that he was proud of his brothers Bishoy and Samuel, and said that their martyrdom was “a badge of honor to Christianity.”
Kamel went so far as to thank the Islamic State for including their Christian witness in the videos before beheading them.
“ISIS gave us more than we asked when they didn’t edit out the part where they declared their faith and called upon Jesus Christ. ISIS helped us strengthen our faith,” he said.
Kamel said these words in an interview with SAT 7-ARABIC. The interview went viral, receiving over 100,000 views within hours of its release.
The interviewer asked Kamel what his reaction would be if he were to encounter an Islamic State militant, to which Kamel recalled his mother’s response: “My mother, an uneducated woman in her sixties, said she would ask [him] to enter her house and ask God to open his eyes because he was the reason her son entered the kingdom of heaven,” Kamel said.
27 / 02 / 2015

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Friday, 30 October 2015

CNN Reports:
U.S. To Deploy Special Forces Into Syria

On Whose Authority?
Ignoring the legitimate government of Syria, ignoring the United Nations,
and under the cover of 'peace negotiations' in Vienna, America has embarked on a strategy of supporting 'terrorists' which could have profound implications for its perception and for the rule of international law for many decades to come.
In actual fact, we might as well tear up all international agreements with regard to the United Nations as it now has no legitimacy in international peacekeeping nor as a forum for the consent of nations as established in the post-Second World War era.

Humiliation
Apart from anything else, because such a force lacks all legitimacy – other than an agenda to overthrow the government of Syria - America is going down a very dangerous road it probably, out of hubris (see my earlier blogs) has not thought through the full extent of the ramifications.
Should such 'mercenaries' (Special Operations Personnel) be captured and, operating without the consent of the government in Damascus, despite the false presentation and (justification) by CNN as a 'legitimate' operation.  God forbid such mercenaries are 'captured' then 'sold on' to another 'terrorist' group (a very common practice during warfare through the centuries in this part of the world) their status and fate will only be determined by the extent of ransom the U.S. government will be prepared to pay to 'release' each captured individual, alive.

[Qualification: The assumption here is that Special Forces Personnel would not be captured by ISIL/Daesh and 'bartered' between terrorist groups so that one would attempt to secure ransom rather than the U.S. government see one of its Personnel handed over to ISIL.  
In summary placing 30 even 50 even 200 Special Forces into such a chaotic environment, having been advance publicly declared, without appropriate support, is akin to a suicide mission, in my opinion.]
(Qualification added on 1st November, 2015)

America is digging itself into a deeper and deeper hole in a region where already too much chaos, death, bloodshed and misery has touched the lives of both civilians and combatants.

Let me tell you exactly what these Special Operations Teams have (probably) already been told by their commanding officers: I paraphrase the (likely) scenario:
''In the event of your capture, beyond attempted rescue and extraction, the U.S. government will not negotiate for your release.''
So these highly trained specialists are, in effect, being used kamikaze-like as (expendable) assets, more akin to an unpatriotic act on behalf of the government they swore to serve than to the expected role of honor for a just and righteous cause.

'Only Following Orders'
Before You Blame The U.S. Military, Look To See Who Really Benefits From Their Deployment Into Syria
Being shamelessly used as 'political fodder' to satisfy (mainly Republican Party) extremists who regard, with contempt, anything and everything in the employ of the Federal government of the United States and it's armed forces, is a dishonor not just to the armed forces of the United States but also to its international allies, who may well also be ordered into mission-supportive roles.

We are reaching the point where someone has to call out these U.S. politicians and their supporters, from the ranks of the Republican Party and those from corporate America, who would put American military lives at risk without legitimate authority - and I would not call Republican Party overt nor covert support for such insurgents – clones of the very individuals who caused 9/11 - 'legitimate' authority - for what they really are, which, at the very least, would be called 'misguided'.

CNN and FOX Networks Both Now Openly Support The Perpetrators of 9/11 Under The Guise of Syrian 'Moderates'
CNN is a national disgrace – and anyone who has any common sense can see this.
It is now propping up support through its networks in the U.S. and worldwide for Islamic fanatics, under the guise of 'Syrian moderates' which, I told you two years ago here, did not exist.
Far worse, these 'moderate' Syrian opposition forces the U.S. now openly backs are the most evil groups to emerge from the hell which American decoherent foreign policy, having been hijacked by religious fanatics and extremists in the United States, has created over the past two decades.

The United States government is now openly in support of Islamic fanatics linked to Al Qaeda and ISIL. Even if they are not directly, almost without exception, they are individuals whose Salafist and Wahhabist agendas praise and glorify the perpetrators of 9/11 and Osama Bin Laden.

How Could American Foreign Policy Sink To Such Low Depths?; Future Historians May Well Ask

With regard to the non-existent 'moderate' rebels in Syria, the murder and rape of children, of babies, of women and men is now totally permissible by these Republicans in the American Congress and their supporters in civil and corporate American society - as long as it ultimately leads to the overthrowing of President Assad. Anyone, even the devil itself, is regarded as an ally, provided it is prepared to work with the United States for the overthrowing of the Syrian President.

I never was a fan of Assad and in my wildest dreams I could never have seen myself saying a good word in his defense. But if you ask me to choose between Gadhafi, Saddam Hussein and Bashar al-Assad – none of whom ever committed any act of terrorism on the mainland of the United States and all of whom opposed Al Qaeda and their heinous affiliates, had nothing to do with 9/11, I will evocate support of the legitimate Syrian government any day of the year rather than with an evil entity which was directly responsible for 9/11 but has been given a 'free pass' to wreak havoc and reshape the Middle East into its own tyrannical image and liking – all in the interests of Mammon.
.

Emerging New World Orders (BRICS)

I do not believe that the United States administration as yet realises the full international extent of the ramifications of its decision to deploy special forces with no legitimacy (other than that, perhaps, of the American Congress or  Presidential executive action) outside the 'bubble world' of Western Christendom (including Australia and New Zealand) and NATO.

Let me give you just one example of a likely ramification of such rule of 'jungle' law in the case of Africa: America ceases to have any legitimate relevance to all but its 'client' countries in Africa – and will become increasing reliant on tyrannies, intellectual and primitive pygmies, as those countries which should have been its strongest allies on the continent – such as South Africa – gravitate even further into a new economic, political and military structure which denies access to America, at all levels, as an influential leader on the continent. This is an inevitable outcome as it (the United States) relies more and more on the 'law of the jungle' for legitimacy to determine foreign policy and in the conduct of military operations abroad.

Secondly, such extremists (again mainly from within Republican Party circles) have always held the United Nations in contempt and have now decided to use their influence to simply bypass it in favor of direct (unlawful by all international laws the world subscribes to) military action in a part of the world where the danger of global conflagration lurks around every political, religious and tribal imbalance created.

The message such U.S doctrine and policy sends to emerging nations yearning leadership and power is that might is right, to hell with international laws and diplomacy (where diplomacy is now simply a cover for illegal acts of war not sanctioned by any international authority.)


''Rome Was Not Built In A Day''
(Neither Did the Empire Collapse Overnight)
The Unthinkable May Also Be Much Nearer At Hand Than I Had Ever Imagined
When and where the United States fails to provide leadership and uphold the frameworks of international law and diplomacy, for sure, some other superpower will move in to fill the vacuum.
Let me explain to you what I mean.
Many decades ago I said, rather jokingly to the number 2 or number 3 at the Chinese Embassy that perhaps, one day, the United Nations and other international bodies, might 'decamp' from New York and Geneva to China – but I reckoned it would not be for about a thousand or more years – at a future time when China was more 'open' to the world such as is the United States today. (I was very careful and polite not to use the word 'democracy' in my predictive analysis.)

As America squanders its leadership and exceptional destiny in favor of ignorant, bigoted and short-sighted corporate agendas - all developed by individuals who appear oblivious to the fact that the rest of the world can see through their real motives as one can see through clear glass - another nation or superpower, for sure, will step up, and step in, to fill this void.
It will be a genuine tragedy for the world because no nation has been better endowed in the past two thousand years to provide global leadership, than has, through quirks of history, the United States.

Sadly, this is the direction in which events are being inexorably moved.

More and more, there are to be found remarkable parallels between the fall of the Roman Empire and American policy at home and abroad.

The greatest tragedy, in my opinion, is that the ordinary folk are oblivious to the 'Fall of Rome' and will only realise what is happening as the barbarians and 'contractors', with the aid of collaborators and traitors, ransack and pillage the 'Eternal City' - in favor of their own very narrow agendas.



©Patrick Emek, 31st October 2015



addendum: 1st November, 2015


Wednesday, 14 October 2015

MH-17
The Agony For The Victims' Relatives Is Prolonged as
The Mystery Continues

Matryoshka

Having watched the Dutch Safety Board and the BUK Manufacturers both hold their rival Press Conferences on the same day, you could be forgiven for being totally confused about what was actually being said.
I won't dwell on either conference which I encourage you to view on line by clicking on the references below.

What I would like to do is pick out threads from selected redacted (deleted) internet posts over the past year and, from what the experts (Dutch Safety Board and Buk Manufacturers) are now telling us, in a jigsaw manner, try to fit them all together.
There is at present no foregone conclusion - just a fragile string of leads, explicit and implicit statements on all sides, which may point to a scenario.

The Jigsaw

What was redacted:
I
The BBC were quick to pull Olga Ivshina's Report from You Tube-only to (much later) reinsert it (after an international outcry) on an alternative BBC website.
What was in her report which caused such concerns?
It would now appear that it was the eye witnesses reports of the presence of a Ukrainian fighter plane which was the main issue. This was at a time, you need to remember, when the Ukrainian Government was categorically denying any of it's military aircraft were in the vicinity of the MH-17 tragedy. So the BBC took a political decision not to embarrass the Ukrainian government and to immediately accept it's version of events as opposed to those of (suspect?) on the ground local eye-witnesses reports.

II
The second redacted (removed) report was a You Tube interview from a month before the fatal downing of MH17 with an Eastern Region Separatist fighter named 'Elena' from Sloviansk who said on that You Tube Video Report that it was 'routine' for Ukrainian fighter planes to 'hide' alongside/behind civilian airlines knowing that the rebels would not fire on a civilian aircraft and thus give them 'cover' for attacks on rebel positions.
This You Tube interview was also quickly removed by You Tube.
No reasons were given for its removal so you need to draw your own conclusions.
One likely possibility would be a complaint from the Ukrainian government that You Tube was promoting the rebels in a civil a war in Eastern Ukraine by giving a platform to such 'untrue' 'propaganda'.
Such a complaint, in the light of current international politics, would certainly be enough to have the interview removed from You Tube with little to no explanation.

III
Next are credible independent eye-witness reports of Ukrainian fighter planes in the immediate vicinity of the MH-17 airplane at the time of the tragedy.

IV
I was sent a video of raw footage which I was never able to elicit any further information about so I put it on the site for others to investigate as the implications of a potential War Crime are very serious.

V
Then there is the BUK surface-to-air missile which DSB experts now confirm brought down Malaysian flight MH-17.
The DSB appeared to give a frank and honest assessment – especially as to what must have been a very traumatic conclusion for the relatives about how the victims on board died 90 seconds after the kill-missile impact.

VI
I would like to stay on the issue of trauma for a moment.
Many ordinary people in the immediate vicinity of the tragedy witnessed carnage persons outside war zones are not usually exposed to.
I recall when I visited Sri Lanka at Easter, after the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004.
I listened to harrowing stories from ordinary folk who pulled the bodies of dead adults and children out of water and entanglements after devastation engulfed parts of this tropical island. Even at the time of listening I could not but help feeling sorry for these ordinary folk who will never have access to bereavement counselling nor other support for the trauma they were clearly re-living as they told me about their personal experiences as part of voluntary relief teams. I listened patiently as they told me their individual stories, never interrupting, as I was aware that this was the only therapy they will ever have to retain their sanity.

There is no doubt that the impact of loss on the victims families of the MH-17 tragedy will continue every day such events are relived in the media and no amount of bereavement counselling nor recompense can prepare anyone for such future flashbacks.

Such facts in themselves should motivate the investigators to attempt to give some immediate closure to this tragic event as quickly as possible.

VII
Then there was the BUK manufacturers conference (on the same day as the DSB Conference) where the technical experts presented their case for the missile not being from current BUK stock but from a batch which was decommissioned and prohibited from use several years ago.
Their Report was so highly technical it could not have been staged-managed as nobody in their right minds would put people on public stage who quite clearly were unused to dealing with the general public and explaining things in a (down-to-earth) language the masses could understand(!)
What was quite evident was they had done little preparation for the (proverbial) 6-year-old trying to interpret their data:
If you can't explain it to a six year old, you don't understand it yourself.” (Albert Einstein)


So what are we left with?
Lets leave aside the issue of the flight corridor, liability and the criminal investigation, for the time being.



1.MH17 was, more likely than not, brought down by a Russian-made BUK missile.

2.There were Ukrainian fighter plane(s) in the vicinity of the MH17 shooting down at the immediate time of disaster.

3.the Ukrainian government emphatically denies it had fighter planes in the vicinity of the tragedy.

4.No satellite data from the U.S. has been presented to the DSB which refutes the Russian Federation's claim that it was a version of BUK long discontinued for approved use by Russian armed forces and that the BUK missile which brought down MH-17 was not fired from a rebel-controlled location. We only have a Ukrainian government report, based on hearsay, to confirm the rebels are guilty of this crime but we are told (asked to accept by Ukrainian authorities) that 'evidence exists' but is 'too secret' to be given – even to the Dutch Safety Inquiry Board.
[There is of course always the possibility that such satellite evidence may be presented to the criminal investigation for analysis in the near future.]

5.Ukrainian fighter planes regularly used civilian airlines overflying rebel-held territory as 'cover' when attacking rebel positions in Eastern Ukraine.

6.That the Russian Federation had Special Forces in the Eastern region at that time to assist local rebels.

7.That Russia had supplied the Ukrainian rebels with sophisticated surface to air missiles for self-defense purposes – to protect town and villages being attacked and shelled by ground and from the air by Ukrainian government forces.


Was this just a tragic accident or premeditated murder?


The criminal investigation continues.


©Patrick Emek, October 2015

Erratum October 2015:  Boxing Day Tsunami of  2004


















Saturday, 10 October 2015

EBOLA:
What The Government Failed To Reveal

I always begin any topic of such magnitude by stating that I am not a medical professional but my background in technical analysis and research has provided me with certain skills which I bring to bear in these situations.
The advantage here is that, other than occasional self-censorship, I am not blogging for financial gain nor dependant on a media organisation for my existence, salary, nor promotion.

As a Scottish Nurse who contracted Ebola in West Africa (Sierra Leone) is suddenly rushed to hospital having suffered a relapse, the British government had no option but to come partially clean with some more truths about the dormancy period and polymorphic aspects for this deadly virus.

If you want to know what they (Western governments) are or may still not be revealing about this potential pandemic, please refer to my earlier blogs for some guidance.

Why The Secrecy?
So as not to create panic amongst the general population of course.
Most people these days have little access to anything other than mainstream news. Successful sophisticated propaganda and technologies of political, technical and psychological control mean that many are anxious not to be 'seen' as 'unpatriotic' by 'searching' for a genuine alternative viewpoint beyond the defined social parameters as laid down by the State.
It is ironic that in a world of information overload many are concerned about what effect expressing an opinion contrary to the accepted norm will have on their life and careers. Their fears are quite justified.
I am probably amongst the last of the Riefenstahl generation to appreciate the value of propaganda whilst staying borderline to the 'system'.
(I had the opportunity, many decades ago, to meet with Leni Riefenstahl on one occasion, but due to other activities and my own work at that time, I was unable to attend the Reception.)

It should never be forgotten that while Riefenstahl was a pariah for decades after The Second World War in the West, her works were standard (if not seminal influences) on U.S. and Allied information specialists (including psychologists and psychiatrists) and were designated or required as study for appreciation, emulation and further development at military colleges, academies and other institutions and learned houses.

The Stuff Of Nightmares
Let's get back to the issue at hand.
The prospect of a pandemic plagues the nightmares of anyone with a modicum of understanding about what is out there – but not in the public domain. If Hollywood has made one positive contribution, it is the therapeutic effect which bringing the visual impact of such scenarios to life has in order to prepare the populace for situations where their compliance might be, at some future point, prerequisite by the State.

I can say for certain that I personally am more fearful of a major pandemic in the future than I am of nuclear warfare.
Virology and Bacteriology are subjects more prone to unique loners than their individual potential capability and capacity exists to develop a nuclear device.

As society becomes increasingly even more complex and its controls more subtle and obscurely rigid, the likelihood is that so too the sophistication with which a terrorist biowarfare strategy is developed, will be the likely response.

The popular scenarios played out by Hollywood bear some limited relationship to bioterror scenarios and potential for mass infection and, at least, they give the public an appreciation of the draconian response by authorities in the event of such an emergency as it is impossible to protect whole populations with any meaningful response other than monitoring, containment, isolation, disinfection and termination.

Why Lie To the General Public?

If you read my earlier blog you will see that an incubation period of (initially) 24-28 days was more for public consumption and to allay fears than bearing any logical relationship to what was actually happening.
The fact that 99% of the general public was prepared to accept this explanation should give Western governments (and indeed most worldwide) some relief that, in the event of a real emergency, the situation can be easily explained and contained with little to no questioning of the scientific community (eminent members) and public relations statements on behalf of the health and other government departments.
In Israel, for example, as in many other parts of the world, in the event of a major terrorist attack leaving carnage in it's wake, the important thing is to 'clean up' – remove the body parts, wreckage, etc as quickly (and as dignified and humanely, under the circumstances) as possible so that 'normalcy' is perceived as continuity.
The ideal scenario, after rapid forensics, is to have everything looking exactly as it was prior to the bloody carnage within hours as opposed to days.
An ideal situation would be within 3 hours but it currently runs between 18 hours to 3 days, as minimum, in many developed countries.
The longer the carnage remains in view the more likely it is to create a lasting imprint on the masses. So the prime objective is to remove all traces of a trauma – thus thwarting the terrorists – since all traces of 'shock and awe' have been completely removed and substituted with their antithesis.
I have some confidence that most of the major global viruses which have the potential for pandemics have been identified.   My fear is the ability of an individual to create a synthetic virus about which we know next to nothing. Far fetched?  Maybe? Maybe not so far fetched. Only time will tell.
The equally worrisome antithesis is the ability (and willingness) of a State or State body (plausible deniability) to develop such for a strategic or targeted population control purpose, as yet to be determined.
Which pose the greater danger depends on whether you see the glass as 'half full or half empty.'

Expect more revelations about Ebola to be 'coughed up' only as their concealments are no longer viable options.

©Patrick Emek, October 2015




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34483584

http://www.taschen.com/pages/en/catalogue/photography/all/02605/facts.leni_riefenstahl_africa.htm

http://www.amazon.com/The-Last-Nuba-Leni-Riefenstahl/dp/0312136420/ref=pd_sim_14_2?ie=UTF8&refRID=1YSPTKV6ZAZGFPXEV7HH&dpID=41NPW24P5EL&dpSrc=sims&preST=_AC_UL160_SR107%2C160_ 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leni_Riefenstahl 


Thursday, 8 October 2015

Why Russia Will Not 'Offer' To Conduct Military Operations In Iraq

(Lessons Learned From American Failures)

There is increasing speculation that the Iraqi Premier's recent statement about Russian assistance may herald Russian forces joining the campaign against ISIL/ISIS Daesh in Iraq. Such, however, is unlikely to happen.

Chasing Straws In the Wind
Why, in my opinion, it will not happen in the manner envisaged by the Iraqi Premier, is outlined below.

One of the lessons learnt from American disasters in Libya, Iraq, Syria and now even in Afghanistan (as the promised additional military assistance and resources have not been forthcoming in time to hold back the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Daesh) is that you cannot conduct a military operational campaign when it is being micromanaged by politicians. Yes of course, it is political agendas which set the framework and it is to such that the military officers are ultimately accountable.
Political paralysis in the United States has meant that a unified coherent foreign policy has been impossible to achieve – especially in the conduct of military operations in Syria.
As with Libya and Iraq in the past, such means that the Republican and Democrat Representatives have different outcome agendas and neither appear to have the expertise nor vision to provide blueprints beyond military campaigns and occupation, with very limited strategic objectives, almost oblivious to the masses (local populace) who are perceived as available for micromanagement by U.S. trained military, paramilitary and police units – something similar to what might take place in the United States to control urban civic unrest.
For example it took the brutal murder of many U.S. troops - in many instances by female suicide bombers - in Iraq - for the U.S. forces to appreciate that men do not 'frisk' Muslim women in alien (i.e. their own Muslim) lands.  Iraq, it was then appreciated, is not the United States.

The Enemy Within
In the lead up to a U.S. election year all such divided House members will pivot for maximum advantage and all demand not just being kept 'in the loop' but in micromanaging operations to such an extent that if the military commanders are perceived as not reflecting each sides public policy electorate-winning emotive agenda policies, leakages (of operational failures, cooperation with Russian forces, betrayal of U.S. 'patriotic' values) to the mass media in order to discredit political opponents will be both the order of the day – and turn any coherent unified strategy into a fiasco.

The Lone Ranger
It is for such reasons that any offer along the lines of the Iraqi Premier is a 'poisoned chalice' – even more since the White House has rejected (or spurned) any cooperation with Russia's military campaign in Syria.

The Empire Strikes Back
The only time when the Russian Federation will, in my opinion, consider assisting Iraq would occur should the Iraq government formally request assistance from the Federation – with no conditions attached which might hinder of impede Russian Allied operational issues.
Iraq is not in the same desperate situation which President Assad is.
The new regime in power does not want a return of the Ba'athist Officers who have, by and large, defected to ISIS.
The Kurdish region is heavily dependant on U.S. support whilst the Sadarists in the South dependant on Iran.
The failure, however, of the United States to offer anything other than words of sympathy for the Kurds in what is developing as an (internal) outright civil war against the Salafist-controlled government in Turkey and the paucity of the grade of weapons being supplied to their forces, notwithstanding air support against ISIL forces (to protect oilfields rather than Kurdish forces and territory per se) could well persuade the Kurds that they too have little to loose and everything to gain with a joint request for assistance to Moscow.

There is no doubt that if such a request was made and the mistakes of both Russia in Afghanistan and the United States more recently in Iraq, Libya and Syria unlikely to be repeated, under such circumstances such a joint request would be favorably considered by the Russian parliament.

The Framework Shifts
At such a stage, China, already on good terms with both Iran and the Shia political and spiritual leadership in Iraq, seeing how the export of such chaos could be motivated by external elements to destabilize its own fragile Muslim regions, may well decide, having witnessed the terrible destructive potential which this movement (ISIL) poses, that it is in its own longer-term security interest, to join the battle in Iraq against ISIL rather than having to combat these fanatics with military campaigns for decades - or even longer - in its own backyard.

If the above scenario plays out, it would no doubt be a decisive game changer.
There are, again, longer term implications of having both Russia and China as significant regional players in the region.

Check (Mate?)
Apart from Baghdad, the Iraqi State (or what is left of it) is partially surrounded by patchworks of ISIL-controlled regions – in spite of American bombing strategies and the presence of limited advisors to support Iraqi government's military initiatives, there is just not the confidence that America has the political will to 'get the job done'. There is no evidence in Washington that such a unified strategy exists – indeed quite the opposite appears to be the case in an election lead-up year where its every political party for itself – power is the name of the game.

Deja Vu
As in an earlier war which ended in a fiasco and betrayal – Vietnam – the Iraqi government, is, I have no doubt, beginning to ponder as to whether it is now nearing time to contemplate the unthinkable - jumping ship - before it, also, is too late.


[The symbolism of the launch of Russian Cruise Missiles against ISIL targets in Syria from it's fleet in the Caspian Sea, an area the U.S. and Allies intend as the next area of influence, is lost upon the general media.  Please read my earlier blogs for further clarity on this matter.]


©Patrick Emek, October 2015

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