Syria: One Week To Disarm-The Cost of Warfare

At first glance giving Syria one week to disarm is totally ludicrous.
No doubt there is urgency in Syria's accession to the U.N. Chemical Weapons Ban
Treaty - but a week is just not viable.
There are a number of factors at work here.
One of them is the sheer cost of keeping U.S. forces in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf in a state
of readiness for a prolonged period of time.
It should be appreciated that there is a considerable cost to 'hi-gearing' resources and assets for imminent
action.   Military preparedness degrades over a prolonged period of inactivity as all other schedules (combat training, shore leave, etc etc) have been cancelled prior to imminent war and the military-industrial complex supporting a particular brief (from the 'shop floor' to 'systems delivery') have been re-positioned and readied to supply the mission tasks.
In view of this fact alone, significant progress must be verifiable or at least be evident to facilitate a stand down to a lower level of alertness.   It's effectively the equivalent of 'mission creep' if too long a period of
'inactivity' operates.
With significant progress and combat alert in decline, hopefully the diplomats can be given the space to do their jobs and bring about a favorable outcome for the world.

I often hear comments of eminent specialists who talk about the logic of what the Syrian rebels (Al Qaeda) will do in the interests of 'realpolitik'.   Sadly few (appear to have) any experience of dealing with religious fanatics and are simply looking at matters through the looking glass of their practical training and experience of the 'normal' world of political banter and compromise.
What they fail to appreciate is that in the 21st century, in some parts of the world,there are religious idealists
(such as Al Qaeda) who do not see the world through our prism.
You really must put yourself into a framework of medieval-or pre-medieval  thought-where Infidels are put to the sword for the glory of Allah or indeed for the glory of God, The Trinity and the prize of re-taking Jerusalem for Christendom) where unspeakable crimes against humanity are perfectly acceptable-as a matter of course-and will be forgiven (by Allah or God)-if it is to further Islam/Christianity in a 'Holy War'; where the sacking and putting to the sword (and I am talking May Lai Massacre and Pol Pot scale-big time-not just as 'one-off' actions of a disturbed captain or colonel or private but wholesale and as 'the norm') is perfectly justifiable and Allah will forgive as it is all done to further His cause (that of spreading the Koran/Bible by 'fire and the sword' to overcome the 'Infidels'.)
I often wonder if our politically correct versions of sanitized history, religious teachings, and other areas of curricula teachings in schools and colleges are producing generations of  wussies with no real appreciation of the past-thereby ensuring that yesterdays mistakes will be repeated tomorrow.
The general public and indeed  educated professionals  appears to have no real understanding of the mindset
of religious fanatics, who cannot simply be overcome with dialectical (discourse) alone but also with more rudimentary methods which will bring them 'down to earth'.
Let me give just one example.  This is a little know story dating back to the early days of the Lebanese Civil War.  It was a time when Western diplomats were being kidnapped and murdered with frightening regularity.
A faction of a terrorist group (with religious-political ideologies) decided to kidnap Russian diplomats.  The response was, through 'friendly' (pro-Soviet) assets within the terrorist organization, to identify the faction responsible for the kidnappings.   Russian special forces (already present) were deployed to work with friendly locals. The role of local (grass-roots) assets was absolutely critical and without them identification of the terrorist cell would have been extremely difficult.  They promptly kidnapped relatives of the kidnappers and started to send (surgically removed, on ice blocks) 'body parts' of the relatives to the kidnappers-with the message that if the Russian diplomats were not released, more vital parts and organs would follow shortly.)  The kidnappers promptly released their victims and the relatives of the kidnappers were also released, none the worse for wear and tear.   There were no more Russian diplomats kidnapped in Lebanon during the Civil War.

In the politically correct world we inhabit it is assumed that all logic follows the same route.
Not so.
Religious fanatics will often only talk turkey when you have something they regard of  precious value to sell to them.
The Russian 'initiative' did not of course bring about an end to the Lebanese Civil War-but it secured their own position and that of their diplomats.

So with U.S. military intervention temporarily on hold, lets hope that the work of diplomacy will at least marginalize the extremists, for the time being.


Patrick Emek
14th September  2013