Are
We Headed Towards A New Ice Age?
As
the Sun enters another phase of a cycle never seen before (and
comments that it has been in this particular cycle or phase in 1645 are highly
inaccurate) is the world about to enter another ice age?
First
let me say that I am not an astrophysicist (but I did read physics)
so my views are entirely those of a layman.
Rather
than re-invent the wheel, I am republishing a blog which I wrote
several years ago to give the reader some appreciation about 'Space Weather' dominated by the Sun in our solar system.
Patrick
Emek
Now read on...............
What On Earth Is Happening On The Sun?
-The Maunder Minimum Returns-
[Or Is This Just The 'Silly' Season?]
Have
you noticed how cold it is in Wisconsin and Nebraska? Indeed have you
checked how warm it is in Great Britain for this time of year? Or
indeed the unusual climatic variations right across Europe in
January-which are significantly at variation with previous years for the
month of January? If you have, and like myself, you are interested in
the political debate about global warming and global freezing [and to be
quite honest, I am very confused and really don't know which of the
scientific groups to believe], you might however want to check out an
interesting technical and scientific article below about the sun's
activity. For those of you too busy to check it out, the essence of
the article is a quote from one of the world's most respected solar
physicists, Richard Harrison, Head of Space Physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, who told the BBC
that in his 30 years as a physicist, he has seen nothing like it. I
must first say that even though this area is way way way outside my
Ballpark (!)...but..(!)....on 15th December last year, I contacted one
of the world's renowned experts in solar and space 'weather', Jan
Alvestad, [ http://www.spaceweather.com.au/ ]
to ask if, during a very specific period (in hours and minutes)
between 14th-15th December, any unusual solar occurrences had
transpired. His answer was negative and I apologized profusely for
interrupting his observations. As I am not a professional in this
matter and so as to the avoid ridicule and laughter of experts, I
quietly but put my own observations to file and closed the case in the
firm belief that I was hopelessly in error of an unusual pattern of
climatic shift associated with a very specific set of my [imagined]
solar events which may have 'peaked' on 'silence' in a given time frame I
had [imagined I had] noted. Having just read an article posted by
News Network Limited on 19th January, 2014 at 1:36AM [http://www.couriermail.com.au/technology/science/scientists-baffled-as-sun-activity-falls-to-century-low/story-fnjwlbuh-1226805090679] someone with more scientific expertize [and journalistic courage!] has
beaten me to it and boldly said that there is indeed unusual activity
taking place on the sun and that there could be profound climatic
implications resulting. The article is entitled 'Scientists baffled as
Sun activity falls to century low'. The point I want to make here is
that scientists should not be baffled. The arrogance in thinking that
we [humans] understand the cycle of an entity which had been in
existence roughly 4.6 billion years - when we just understand the
workings of the female [human] menstrual cycle, is itself beyond
belief. I don't know if there is something happening in the Sun's cycle
which is a repeat of a pattern [Maunder cycle] which we can relate to
from the first time of our own primitive empirical observations, or is
part of a cycle which repeats every 50000 or 50 or 500 million years.
What I do know is that politicians [and private institutes] had better
release more funds to further observe such events because of their
direct impact on our way of life over a relatively short timescale
between observation and effect.
© Patrick Emek, 2014
Some outdated references below have been removed since 2014 and others updated so I have deleted non-existent references. You can find them all in the original blog of 2014.
'Space weather.co.au' is now directly managed by the Australian government's 'Bureau of Meteorology.' I do not wish to be too disrespectful but the Australian government's new website is not meant to be as 'informative' to the wider populace and is more focused on the security interests of Australia as opposed to those of the wider scientific (and lay) communities worldwide.
However, the populace, as a whole, will, more likely than not, believe 'the men in white coats' from 'the Ministry or Bureau' before seeking 'alternative' opinions.
Jan Alvestad, one of the world's foremost experts on Space Weather, has also 'moved on' to a new site. These changes are all reflected in the updated references below.
Additional Reference [2014/01/28]:Sun Scientists Debate Whether Solar Lull Could Trigger Another 'Little Ice Age' -The Huffington Post- By Macrina Cooper-White
updated Huffington Post reference located at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/24/solar-lull-little-ice-age-sun-scientists_n_4645248.html
http://spaceweather.com/
http://www.solen.info/solar/
http://www.solen.info/solar/indices.html
http://www.lwca.org/sunpage.html
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
http://newsfeed.time.com/2014/01/05/blaze-turns-historic-nebraska-opera-house-into-icy-winter-wonder/
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rare-snows-in-north-africa/61172
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2523259/Historic-snow-fall-turns-Holy-Land-scenes-Christmas-cards.html [13th December,2013]
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/12/snow-in-cairo-for-first-time-in-over-100-years.html
[12/13/2013]
http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/06/25/the-sun-goes-blank-again-during-the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-more-than-a-century/
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-sun-has-gone-blank-and-there-could-be-another-ice-age-on-the-way/ar-AAhL3dL?li=BBoPOOl&ocid=mailsignout
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather
