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Sunday 13 November 2016

Paul Ryan's Last Stand:
Reince Priebus

I have never had too much in common with the political outlook of Reince Priebus.
As with Ryan, however, I have always respected him as someone able, prepared and willing, ultimately, to 'broker' a deal in the interests of the country above the Party.
Trump's dumping of Priebus (if it happens tomorrow, Monday*) is probably the last signal Ryan needs to tell him that it's time to 'retire' from the House and focus on where his real political base is - in the community.

Even if Priebus stays on to act as 'go-between' I still maintain that Ryan cannot outlive a Trump administration - intact.


update for Sunday 13th November

*On Sunday evening (EST) it was announced that Priebus will take on the job as White House Chief Of Staff  to President Trump.

Cruel Intentions
President Trump would like to divide the globe between the United States, China and Russia - and the rest of us can go to hell if we don't like the arrangements.
He has grossly miscalculated the perceptions of Russia and China. 
The United States, far from benefiting, will pay a very heavy price for this miscalculation.
Ultimately, the planet is not big enough for 3 superpowers to happily co-exist.
[China and Russia will no doubt also have taken note of how Trump deals with perceived weakness.]

[It is at historic moments such as this that Britain should very carefully reflect on whether leaving the single Common Market, The European Union, is really such a good idea after all.  The United Kingdom now has a choice between being a big fish in a small pond or a small fish in a bigger and most uncertain ocean.
The key issues for Britain are sovereignty, immigration, taxation,  and preferential tariffs. 
Given the changed circumstances, The EU is most unwise to show no flexibility to the United Kingdom in these regards.]
 end of update



At The Crossroads 
As Trump will be building and consolidating his own 'movement' over the next four years, there will be a huge alienated base of White Republicans, Hispanics, Blacks, Latinos and ordinary (non-partisan) voters to be tapped into and organized as part of the new Republican coalition.
There are many senior Republicans (and former Presidents) just waiting for leadership - and Ryan has both the energy and the time to solidify this new base, should he choose this road to go down.

This all assumes that Ryan is smart enough to get out before Trump attempts to use his 'bottom of the barrel' contacts to discover some way to 'blackmail' him with some or other 'indiscretion', personal failing or political 'errors of judgement' and, as with Clinton, scuttle forever his chances of ever making it to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

[Clinton was right on the money about Trump's character - but sadly she will not be remembered for this.  It is reported that Trump is already discussing appointing military commanders who have very strong personal relationships with the Kremlin.  Because of this, there may well be new political relationships of old foes, forged out of necessity, on Capitol Hill.  Watch that space.] 

Castles Of  Sand
An interesting issue will be will if Trump's 'empire' survives.  I would anticipate home grown 'terrorist' bomb attacks, fake threats, sieges and everything else you can imagine on anything domestically and abroad which has the name of  'Trump'  associated with it.
Even Rudy Giuliani's cracking down on the mainstream U.S. media as 'sponsors of terrorism' will not be able to prevent  news of such national and international events leaking out and being relayed to the world public (see my earlier blog about what if Trump became President.)


Night Of The Long Knives 
[Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes]
 
As with The Fuhrer, Trump will begin by saying what a fantastic job they are all doing and what great admiration and respect he has for them all.
Trump will of course blame a national and international 'conspiracy' - as did Adolf Hitler - to 'purge' the CIA, the NSA and the Pentagon (with 'popular' approval after he has purged a compliant media into place - not too difficult with the 98% oligarch-owned of all mainstream U.S. media outlets.)

Will Trump succeed?  I certainly hope not.

They say that there were secret 'conspiracies' with political agendas (and much to be gained) against Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama to derail their policies and rubbish their legacies.
In Trump's particular case, there will be individuals and groups by the hundreds (if not thousands) lining up in public, in lines going all around the block,  just to sign up somewhere, to do the job for free - not even a 'thanks' required.   


©Patrick Emek, November 2016





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