Why A Breakneck-Speed Referendum in The Crimea For Secession and Unification with Russia?

Why A Breakneck-Speed Referendum in The Crimea For  Secession and Unification with Russia?

Constitutionally the Crimean Parliament does not have the right to secede from The Ukraine without

1.Approval of The Ukrainian Parliament in Kiev

2.A National Referendum conducted by Parliament in Kiev throughout the whole country of The Ukraine

3.Further Parliamentary approval (ratification) from Kiev following the results (if approved by the majority of the voting Ukrainian population) of such a National Referendum

So why the Crimea Horse-Race Vote at Breakneck Speed?

It's very simple.   Legally, there is no elected government in Kiev.

Whatever your view of the Democratic Spring Revolution, the Ukrainian people have not yet voted on a new government for the Republic of The Ukraine.

All of it's politicians in power in Kiev do not owe their position to a national election, vote or ballot, as we recognize civic society as existing, in Western Europe.

It is often acceptable that interim leaderships can function in the event of national crises and it is as such that the Ukrainian Parliament is currently functioning.

It is to pip this National Ukrainian Election and a  Referendum vote on secession to the post that a race is on  to cobble together a local referendum in The Crimea while it is still possible to say that the former President and his government were the last legitimate government representing all of the Ukrainian people so there is no legitimate government to negotiate with.  Such will be impossible to justify after the Parliament in Kiev has set it's own date for a national election to democratically elect the new post-Russian-dominated Parliament – as it is almost for sure that a free and fair election will confirm the new democrats in Kiev and seal their legitimate administration of the country as a whole.   So it is to prevent this, that The Crimea, as a matter of urgency, is seeking to have it's own illegal referendum on secession.  It knows it cannot win a National Referendum but for sure will win this local vote to secede and unite with Russia. The situation will become even more precarious if the Eastern Provinces and two other regions in the South also declare formulations to have their similar referendums on the same issue.   Such would certainly push the country of The Ukraine from a crisis to the brink of an economic abyss, the likes of which has never been seen in any part of Europe to date.

Whether President Putin will take such a dangerous gamble with the peace and security of continental Europe it is unclear at present.

The likely scenario is that the Eastern provinces will be firmly secured under Moscow's indirect control but no additional referendums will be promoted.  This will leave the door open for diplomacy when a new democratically elected Ukrainian Government (which will have the unanimous backing of the international community - The United States,The United Kingdom, The European Union,The African Union, and most of the OAS - other than,of course, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia and possibly 2 other South American Countries.  The position of Brazil is unclear but should it decide to vote against Ukrainian democracy after national elections, it would come as no great surprise - being itself the foremost Apartheid State in South America where over 75% of it's population is equally disenfranchised from all political and economic power.  It might similarly see Ukrainian popular democracy as setting a very dangerous precedent the likes of which, one day, itself, it will most certainly also face.) 
The position of the new government in Chile on the matter of support for the Ukrainian popular uprising against Russian domination is likewise unclear at present.  Should it decide to oppose (or indeed abstain from) recognition of the new Ukrainian democrats after national elections, and other South American nations follow suit, this will indicate a very significant shift in South American foreign perspectives and policy for a significant number of the most important countries in this region. 
The position of Argentina on recognition is very complicated.  It might, for  reasons of political expediency and the (historically profound) changing relationships between South American nations and the United States, be eager to give support to the Crimea but (in the eyes of Buenos Aires) the unresolved status of the Falkland Islands (a group of remote island off it's coast, 99% of whose population wants to remain part of the United Kingdom and retain links with the British Commonwealth) may determine otherwise.  With the support of Britain, during the administration years of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, The Falkland Islands successfully resisted a military invasion and attempted take over by the Argentinian Military Junta.  These recent historical facts may very well determine a vote in support of the new democrats in Kiev and sovereign unity of the The Ukraine as a whole.¹  Bolivia will most likely vote against recognition of the new democrats in Kiev¹ .
 Likewise the ACS (Association of Caribbean States),The Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asia Nations) and The Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) Member States ( with the exception of Iran and Syria) will most certainly recognize the new government in Kiev, after democratic elections.
The position of Israel is also quite complicated.  In an ideal world it's preference would be either to abstain - or even vote to support Russia on this particular issue.   What is likely to happen however is that Israel will vote in support of it's strategic ally, the United States, thus in favor of the new democrats in Kiev, after general elections.  
That being said, the joint security interests of Israel and Russia and the Russian Federation will henceforth be given higher priority in an area where the potential for the transfer of nuclear technology know-how to Islamic extremists in such an unstable region could have disastrous consequences for all concerned² .
China most certainly and, surprisingly, India might also possibly vote to support The Russian Federation against the legitimacy and recognition of the new Ukrainian Government in the aftermath of a national election.  [Lets be clear about China.  A vote by China to abstain from voting, is, in this instance, in effect, a vote in favor of Russia.³ ]
Should India vote to support Russia, this can most certainly be seen as direct 'fallout' from the Khobragade Incident - where an accredited Indian United Nations Diplomat was arrested, forcibly strip-searched and (internal cavity) bodily searched before being deported from the United States.   This was an insult to India's national pride - which most U.S . politicians either do not understand or simply do not care about to this day.

Patrick Emek

¹revised March 10. 2014

^{2
revised March 11, 2014
3}updated March 13,2014

Crisis In The Ukraine-What President Putin Should Really Fear

                                                             (Part II)

The Ukraine, as an economic and military entity, holds little viability without the Crimea and the Eastern Provinces.

So what then will President Putin do to resolve a crisis of his (Russia's) own making?

So far all  the Russian government's responses against the democratic uprising in the West of the Ukraine have been calculated and measured.  The reason for this, from President Putin's perspective, is because Russia is holding all of the economic cards.  The wealth of The Ukraine lies in it's Eastern provinces and it's military significance in the Crimea – both of which are firmly under the Russian sphere of influence.

So what will President Putin do?

The answer is that, logically, he needs to do very little – except reinforce the Crimea and send Special Forces to secure control of the Eastern provinces from 'infiltration'.

This will involve the invoking of an emergency preparedness scenario to take effective control of key strategic and economic facilities, to arrest potential saboteurs and 'fifth columnists'. Effectively, a sleeper Russian cell, prepared for such a scenario will likely become operative to take mimic control of all infrastructural and network routes in and out of key regions.

To believe that Russia has not prepared for this or another similar situation for many decades would be very naïve.

So, as in a game of chess, the next move is up to the West, or, to be more precise, The Ukrainian Nationalists. Can they repeat a Syria scenario – where modern urban warfare, insurgency tactics and psyops are deployed in densely populated modern cities, towns and villages?

Are there enough loyal sleeper cells deployed within administrations to effectively counter the likely tactics of Russian forces – whose strategies and tactics will have been determined by Moscow and not at local levels?

How long can such a Mexican standoff last - days, weeks, years, decades?

Can Russia afford a protracted war (insurgency) or a reign of terror against the Russian populations in regions where they constitute minorities,  in The Ukraine? 
Can Russia afford the huge displacement in refugee populations and the humanitarian fallout of such displacements?  Has Russia really prepared for such a scenario - the ability to absorb internally displaced refugees in such vast numbers?

Can normal life function under effective conditions of martial law?

At the end of the day, can Russia divert it's gas and oil priorities to counterbalance any sanctions from the United States and Western Europe?

A number of developments in recent years have taken place. One from Africa and one from Transcaucasia, which guarantee that the West is not entirely dependent on Russian oil nor gas. Several years ago, I met and discussed briefly with a former U.S. Presidential Candidate (in an informal setting) the coming online of one such project.  This, together with increased supplies from allies and the current world recession, will mean the prospects of starving Western Europe and the United Kingdom of vital oil and gas, are highly remote or at least less comprehensive to achieve than, say, even 5 years ago.

President Putin has so far played this crisis like someone holding all the Aces in the deck.

Only time will tell if he has miscalculated Jokers for Aces.

Patrick Emek

What President Putin Should Really Fear

The breakup of The Ukraine into two separate states should be a warning to President Putin about the long-term consequences of fostering ultra-nationalism and racism within Russia itself.

For a century Russia has treated it's so called autonomous regions or Republics in much the same way as Rome treated it's Barbarian colonies. They existed to provide raw materials and slave labor and little else beyond this.

Should they arrive in Rome, their work status, movements and domicile were strictly regulated to ensure their presence did not offend Romans. Naturalization (as a Roman citizen) was very difficult (next to impossible) for all but the exceptionally fortunate (or those who had become exceptionally wealthy.)

The Empire existed to benefit Rome Rule and power, nothing else.

There are of course very exceptional differences between ancient Rome, it's Empire and Russia today.

The most important difference is that Rome cultivated and nurtured it's interests throughout the Empire, conscious of the need to preserve alliances - military,social,economic and cultural. All were of course orientated toward the personification of Rome and it's values throughout the Empire. However Rome had values and systems which some Tribal Barbarian rulers thought worth adopting (in their comfort interests) throughout Barbarian Europe and Asia. The most important of which were,at the more basic level, facilities we all take for granted today - aqueducts carrying water over vast distances,the common toilet with sanitary piping, underfloor heating (central heating), the public baths and saunas (still common in many parts of the world today.)

The Russian Empire has little to offer the developing world today which cannot be offered even by other technologically developing countries such as India,Malaysia and South Africa,   So Russia does not have any head start when competing for global economic, military and political influence in today's world. It's abysmal failure to even retain client states from beyond the era of the colonial struggles - especially in Africa - is indicative of inherent weaknesses within the Russian expansionist models to 'capitalize' on what should have been it's enormous opportunities for expansionism.

Most of Africa,India, Indo-China, Central and South America should today be exemplary models of Russian expansionism.

Other than a paltry smattering – Cuba and Venezuela - with virtually no presence of any significance on the African continent - Russia today consists of the country itself with a loose federation of former Soviet Republics-most of which have absolutely nothing in common with Russia proper-other than being a source of cheap labor, raw materials and a mercantilist trade system – which most would readily abandon if offered a Western alternative.

All of these former(slave) Soviet states are basically dysfunctional- in much the same way as Apartheid in South Africa over two centuries has created a dysfunctional society which will take hundreds of years (or at least 50) to re-orientate.

In the case of South Africa the problems are recognized and even as I write are being worked on. Whereas in the case of the new Russian federation of independent States most (with the exception of The Ukraine) do not even recognize they are dysfunctional societies caused by over a century of Soviet slavery with an inability to see the world beyond Moscow at the center of their universe for sustenance, development and social acceptability.

Many of the Muslim Republics have separatist movements which want to replace Moscow Rule with fundamentalist Islam and whose independence movements grew more out of a desire to break free from subservience to Moscow and Russian values rather than strict adherence to Islam.   Fundamentalist Islamic preachers and scholars were quick to recognize and seize the opportunity to turn what were movements for separation into 'Holy' quests to defeat 'the infidel'.   Imperial,'Holy' and Ultra-Nationalist quests, history has taught, can last for centuries and, like Afghanistan (first, in recent history and excluding the Roman Empire and the quests of Alexander of Macedon, for the British, then the Russians,now the Americans) lead absolutely nowhere-except to the graveyard.

Over 12 years ago I said to a serving Officer in Afghanistan that the (U.S.) withdrawal would be like the Roman Legions quietly leaving Britannia at the dead of night to protect the Empire (Rome) from the Barbarian hordes.  It would be a humiliating withdrawal with little accomplished – not even the inherent security of the United States.

About 6 years ago I repeated the same to J M...z.     Both probably thought I was either crazy or just misguided.   The greatest tragedy for myself is the loss of innocent lives and military personnel for nothing tangible - at least for nothing which could have been accomplished by means other than war.

To this day, historians and academics debate how and why the Roman Empire collapsed.   All have their own theories.

It is the potential for the internal collapse and implosion of the Russian Empire which President Putin (and the world) should be focused on as a matter of critical urgency rather than attempting to commit (for decades,maybe even centuries) military resources in a hopeless quest against Ukrainian ultra-nationalists-who inherited and cultivated their inspiration for racism, ultra-nationalism and separatism, from examples set at the heart of the Empire itself.

Patrick Emek

Free Al Jazeera Journalists Peter Greste Mohamed Fahmy Baher Mohamed Abdullah al-Shami and All Other Journalists Detained In Egypt Today

Al Jazeera has unfortunately got caught up in a web of it's own intrigue.  A staunch supported of the Salafist Arab Spring, due to it's political naivety, the relative inexperience of it's editorial staff and the fact that it has become controlled by a Saudi-backed faction (there was a Putsch several years ago which ousted it's fiercely independent chief executive, his team, and replaced them with 'yes' men-bowing like President Obama to everything on Saudi Arabias' Wish List - especially Caliphates and Emirates- throughout the Arab world.)

I have not hesitated in coming out to support Greste, Fahmy and Mohamed but have been quite honestly reluctant to offer support in print to journalists working for a media service (Al Jazeera) in part responsible for the chaos and mayhem which has brought murderous Salafists, Wahabist and Al Qaeda affiliated networks to prominence across the Arab world in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. It is more out of respect for the victims of these butchers that I have refrained from offering public support to a Salafist affiliated and controlled network such as Al Jazeera.

I am only giving verbal support now because their lives are at risk from, yes you guessed it, the new extremists in power in Egypt today - the very extremists their own network was in part was responsible for bringing to power because of it's unflinching support for the Muslim Brotherhood butchers of Christians who preceded the military coup d'état .

At one point it was almost certain that a carnage or ethnic cleansing of the entire Christian population in Egypt was about to be organized by the Muslim Brotherhood - as they started an organized program to capture Christian women, forcing them to marry Muslim men and renounce Christianity and other barbaric practices harking back to an era before the Dark Ages.

The one good thing the military coup d'état has done in Egypt is put an end to violence and persecution against religious and other minorities - which was being systematically organized by Muslim Brotherhood fascist 'Brownshirts' with beards.

All of the above conveniently ignored in their reports for Al Jazeera by Greste, Mohamed and Fahmy.

So before I even say 'free the Al Jazeera journalists!' I need to set this record straight.

Sent back to Egypt after the military coup their sole objective was to seek alternative

(opposition) viewpoints (Muslim Brotherhood Salafist ) to the new military regime.

There is a genuine basis in unbiased (or fair and balanced) media coverage which Middle-East Muslim societies (like other non-Muslim societies in the world today) simply fail to appreciate. But this is made even more complicated when you are working for a network employer which is a known Salafist ideology supporter and in a country where media dissent is not understood nor tolerated to the extent it is in Judeo-Christian Europe and in the United States.

I never backed the Muslim Brotherhood extremists neither do I back the Military Generals.

However, the latter threw a lifeline to Coptic Christians and all other religious minorities:'if you want to live come with us'; at a time when the Christian world (including the Russian and Greek Christian Orthodox Churches) had completely abandoned them.

Russia Today (A Russian-Government part - owned news channel) also stayed on the sidelines - until it's naval base and air access facilities in Syria were at risk.

The Vatican State was the only country to speak out publicly about the atrocities being perpetrated against Christians in Muslim lands following the Arab Spring revolutions.

So I say, yes free the detained Al Jazeera and other journalists, unconditionally, but history should not forget nor forgive their employer for the misery, distress, loss of innocent lives and torn communities it has encouraged with it's reckless and unconditional support for Muslim extremism in the period preceding and in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.

Patrick Emek

http://www.smh.com.au/world/greste-and-colleagues-to-make-first-court-appearance-20140220-hvd6p.html

What On Earth Is Happening On The Sun? (Part II)

There is something really unusual happening on the sun.

(In case you missed it, it's that great ball of light you see during daytime in the sky.)

You may recall an earlier article where I said that a new rhythm or cycle may be phasing in-one which perhaps we have never seen before? Well it may just be happening.  Is there any cause for alarm?  Hell no!  The reason why is because we,as a species, can do absolutely nothing to alter our solar system's sun cycle or cycles.

When I was a child I loved reading Isaac Asimov science fiction books at the Public Library.  In one of them he postulated names for possible different types of advanced civilizations in the universe ranging from type 1 to (I think) type 6. (Many subsequent science fiction writers have mimicked his ideas for nomenclature-without crediting him as the originator.)

Type 1 was where an advanced civilization could master engineer weather and other conditions on it's own planet. Those conditions could include genetic engineering and all other types of engineering which enabled a species to be in control of it's own planet.  Then he went on to discuss civilizations which could master engineer their own solar system to even more advanced civilizations capable of master engineering galaxies perhaps on to those capable of engineering universes. On this scale we do not even register 1–as yet.

A solar flare could destroy the earth in  eight minutes and we would be literally oblivious. Yes, yes, yes I know this is just a lot of hogwash-it's only in the imagination of those capable of understanding such events and providing us with the information which enables us to consider the possibilities. Of course the assumption is that this will never happen and our predictable solar system will continue as it has yesterday.   But our solar system (and outer space) is anything but predictable nor a tranquil environment.  Yes there are radiations, flares, meteors, comets which we can predict–but there are also events totally unpredictable-such as a directed solar burst of energy impacting a planet in our solar system, changing it's ellipse and impacting on planets, their weather conditions,gravitational fields and stability, in this solar system.

But there are too many imponderable possibilities that to consider all as a priority would be a hopeless and futile exercise in predictive futurology analysis.
So the unusual weather conditions we are experiencing may have absolutely nothing or little to do with global warming nor global freezing and much or everything to do with unusual events happening on an entity which is 4.6bn years old and a distance of 149,600,000km from this little planet.  Even the best minds in town are at a loss to say what will happen next.  But you know something, I don't think that is what the politicians want to hear-so it's unlikely you will be getting such 'upbeat' news in the mainstream media!

This is a complex subject and I have researched references which explain in layman's terms the basis of the argument I present above-that it is alteration in solar cycle activity as the greater contributor to global warming-not just on this planet but on other planets in our solar system-as far distant as Pluto.  The former reference debunks the idea-and provides some easy to understand analytics-whereas the latter provides data to support the solar-critical influence concept. 
I have chosen one reference site because it is easy for the layperson to grasp in an instant both the math and the arguments involved (scientists are not famed for their abilities to communicate complex detail in an easy to understand format-which is why this site is,in my opinion,a good starting point.)
Those references can be found at:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-cycles-global-warming.htm
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htm 
temperature trends in our solar system:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/acrim-pmod-sun-getting-hotter.htm
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-on-jupiter.htm
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-on-mars.htm
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-on-neptune.htm 

Updated references (as at 14th February, 2014):
Why Is The Sun Going Quiet?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/09/sun-all-quiet/
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=16&month=09&year=2013

 

Patrick Emek

Tailoring The Next Ukrainian Government

A lot is being made of a hacked telephone conversation between The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, Ms Victoria Nuland, and the U.S. Ambassador to The Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt.

The conversation was between Ms Nuland and U.S. Ambassador Pyatt.

The call can be listened to at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSxaa-67yGM&feature=youtu.be

Having listened to the extract as far as I could hear there is nothing amiss.

It's a perfectly mature assessment about making arrangements for the smooth transition of The Ukraine from a totalitarian Russian-style model towards a democratic open society.

What is being discussed is the basis or framework for a process of transition.

Ms Nuland's comments about the EU are rather direct, but very honest.

She pulls no punches with expressing her frustration at the EU - as it has it's own local agenda for the direction of The Ukraine within the firm framework of the European monetary and political structure.

What is interesting is the impact of media scrutiny (and thus public opinion) on the private lives  (and inter-personal working relationships) of potential senior public figures in today's political world in open societies in contrast to the situation existing in Russia where the public are oblivious to internal dissent in senior political hierarchical levels - as their own media does not inform them.

Even the hint of a potential scandal (or personality conflicts leading to 'separations' ) in the West and in the United States is bad news and the basis for colleagues persuading  potential political candidates to excuse themselves until matters in question are fully settled and resolved.

Thankfully there are still individuals like Nuland and Pyatt with the maturity of vision and perception to assist and advise The Ukraine and it's fledgling democracy during these turbulent days as it too breaks free of the Iron Curtain.

Patrick Emek

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26072281

Is There A Conspiracy To Shatter U.S. - India Bilateral Relations?

It is highly unlikely that there is - but there are certainly public interest questions arising from the Khobragade incident, which could affect India-U.S. bilateral trade to the tune of $100bn U.S.

This is chicken feed in terms of U.S. global interests - but it stretches beyond just money into cooperation to prevent a nuclear holocaust on the Indian sub-continent (involving over 1.4 billion people) the expansion of the power of China and Russia in the region and future U.S. interests in Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan.

Anything of such magnitude is deserving of a public (or at the very least Closed Session) Inquiry - involving The Department of Homeland Security, the FBI and the CIA, the DIA and, an input assessment (of potential impacts arising out of a loss of India as a vital strategic partner) from the  Military Intelligence Corps.

In a statement last Friday, U.S.Attorney Bharara made it unequivocally clear that enormous weight must be given to the Federal Prosecutor's interpretation of events surrounding this case as opposed to those submissions of the Defense lawyer acting on behalf of Dr. Khobragade.

The full background to this incident needs to be carefully investigated-leaving no doubt that the Department of Justice was properly guided and advised with regard to the entire events which led to the arrest and subsequent expulsion of Dr. Devyani Khobragade.
In addition to this there are serious international basic human rights issues – with regard to the treatment of Dr. Khobragade's spouse and family, which also need to be properly investigated.
Because of the fact that the incident took place with events unfolding on the Indian sub-continent, there may well be back issues and back story(ies) which provides a legend(s) not only to the events which unfolded in the United States but to historical background issues which may or may not have a pertinent bearing on this case.

There is no doubt that Attorney Preet Bharara acted in good faith carrying out his tasks in a highly professional manner and only relying on legal advisors views pertinent to the matter in question.   As he himself has said: ''You don't want a justice system where you have prosecutors who are cowboys¹.''   Hence the need to ensure public confidence and re-assurance that the handling of the Khobragade Incident was properly advised.

Patrick Emek

1.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preet_Bharara#cite_ref-22

Dr. Devyani Khobragade - The Pentagon Finally Weighs In

After months of indecisive dithering by the White House the Pentagon has taken the initiative expressing it's disgust at the treatment of former Indian Deputy Counsel, Dr Devyani Khobragade.

It seems also likely that the Obama administration has finally woken up to what is at stake if relations with India go down the toilet.

As I said earlier, what is incredible is the ignorant petty bureaucracy and pseudo-principled stances which have shattered normalcy in U.S.-India diplomatic relations-most especially for U.S. diplomats based in India who had a status equaled by no other foreign representatives.

  U.S. staff have in the past, gotten away with, dare I say it, crimes which would have landed individuals in special detention facilities, such as Fort Leavenworth, had they occurred in the U.S. but much has been overlooked by Indian authorities, in the interests of good bilateral relations, so individuals have been, in the past, quietly shipped back home to avoid public humiliation.  This will not be the case henceforth.

It is likely that the India media will go to town on the more serious past violations of Indian laws as this row continues to evoke passions like no other on the Indian sub-continent.

The question always is will the U.S. learn anything. The answer is that it will not.  It's not the fate of superpowers of the past, the present nor the future to take lessons from their clients.  However, as a onetime student of history, I appreciate that it is the fate of empires to fall when all the Barbarians decide they have had enough of 'Rome rule', bury their vast differences just to overwhelm the empire.  Such was the case when the Helvetians (Swiss), Germanic and Gallic Tribes all overwhelmed the Empire's defenses in the 5th century A.D.  (I used to know all of their names off by heart but time and age have taken their toll - so I must now refer you to historical records to verify these facts.)

But history lessons aside, it's taken an incredibly long time for the Obama administration to weigh in on this debacle-and even with it's involvement the President is still taking the high ground in the mistaken belief that, being above the fray, by not commenting, he is doing a service to U.S. and allied interests.

I remember the childhood story, 'The Emperor's New Clothes' ("Keiserens nye Klæder") by Hans Christian Andersen.   President Obama would not waste time to read it - and start to think outside the box on this particular diplomatic incident.

 

 Patrick Emek

 

http://www.firstpost.com/world/pentagon-expresses-dismay-over-handling-of-khobragade-case-1315531.html?fb_action_ids=700562916621999&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=feed_opengraph&action_object_map={%22700562916621999%22%3A786360744713079}&action_type_map={%22700562916621999%22%3A%22og.likes%22}&action_ref_map=[]

 

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ugo-bardi/peak-civilization

http://www.roman-empire.net/articles/article-003.htmlhttp:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8438599/What-led-to-the-fall-of-the-Roman-Empire.html

//www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_Roman_rule_in_Britain

Disasters Waiting To Happen or Just Freak Accidents?

Michael Schumacher, retired Formula 1 top ace and seven times World Champion is, together with Lewis Hamilton, one of the greatest driving legends of the 21st century.

Michael sadly remains in a coma one month after a freak accident whilst out for a playful ski holiday with his family.

Just before Sochi this reminds us that even though we cherish sports there are always dangers-even at the most unlikely times and in the most unlikeliest of places.
Lewis Hamilton was himself very lucky just a few hours ago to survive uninjured a horrific high speed crash into the safety barriers-where his car was a total write-off.
One wonders whether pushing the limits of cars for speed and weight requires further safety prechecks.
Indeed the same can be said of any vehicles-including boats-catamarans,airplanes, bicycles and bobsleighs-where the competition is very intense for limited sponsorship availability.
There appears to be a constant drive to reduce vehicle weight, improve performance and cost-benefits by introducing materials whose full long-term stresses are not yet fully understood.
Here I am going to be controversial and say that while I have every confidence in the Airbus A380, I always remember the Titanic-built by Harland & Wolff in Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom.   It was the greatest ship (luxury passenger liner) ever to sail the seas to that date. Indeed the boast of the day was that 'God himself could not sink her'. We all know what happened to the Titanic. What is more important is that recent research has revealed that it was probably likely that mis-sized welded metal rivets caused catastrophic structural failure when she struck an iceberg in the deadly icy waters of the North Atlantic on 15th April,1912.  Cost-cutting on this over-budget enterprise meant that rivets supporting the Titanic's hull were neither uniform nor able to support the vast weight of the structure above under the wrong conditions and that her demise was an accident waiting to happen even before she set sail on her maiden voyage  from Southampton,Great Britain, to New York,United States.
Today the parameters have not changed.  There is a constant requirement to operate within budget and where cost overruns occur they must be balanced out somewhere-and that somewhere is often in the most unlikeliest of areas-and ones which ultimately result in catastrophic failure of materials-some of which are themselves new composites whose stresses are not fully understood as they interact under enormous pressures and unpredictable freak electromagnetic turbulence and other conditions they were never designed to operate in nor could all possibly be factored under laboratory test conditions.
We saw something similar in the Space Shuttle Challenger Program¹- where funding pressure from above meant that design flaws in the 'O' rings were not reported higher up the administrative chain by NASA managers-who knew that Morton-Thiokol's design of the solid rocket booster (SRB) was potentially flawed.  They knew this almost 10 years before the Challenger disaster but kept it quiet for fear of losing funds or staff or both if a complete redesign of the SRB had to be initiated from scratch-just to correct a 'minor' design flaw. We all know what that 'minor' design flaw led to.   But hindsight can be a wonderful thing.   It's foresight and courage which is often required but lacking for fear of peer pressure,overwork and over-stress of project team staff, pressure of time to perform tasks and turnaround, loss of employment, blacklisting as a 'troublemaker' and status,demotion, loss of bonuses, loss of contracts, sheer fatigue,misinterpretation (or confusion) of instructions or expectations in the chain of authority, loyalty to the firm.   All these factors (and more) often contribute to many accidents and only reveal themselves where high level inquiries are initiated as to the reasons for the disaster.
So how come the freak accident of one man should prompt me to circumvent the entire spectrum of possibilities for disaster?  While doctors, brain trauma surgeons, nurses, cardiologists,therapists and ancillary staff all bravely battle to the limits of their professional abilities and capabilities to save the life of Michael Schumacher we should never forget, on the eve of the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics and the Rio 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games, that this tragic accident should alert us to constant vigilance as human factors in the most unlikeliest of ways can also intervene to connect with external  preventable events which just seem too unreal to fathom but which sadly have their own momentum.

Patrick Emek

Space Shuttle Challenger Program¹
In the interests of historical accuracy there is a distinction between the Apollo and Shuttle program eras -though many of the same astronauts were still working at NASA in the wilderness period between both Programs and, because the Apollo Program captivated the imagination of the world in a way no other scientific endeavor had- this distinction was never quite apparent to many (including myself, Mom and Aunt) who had grown up with  the wonder and excitement of the Apollo Missions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Titanic
http://scienceillustrated.com.au/blog/culture/why-did-titanic-sink/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/motorsport/formulaone/lewishamilton/10601774/Lewis-Hamilton-suffers-high-speed-crash-on-first-day-of-Formula-One-pre-season-testing.html
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/spotlight-artificial-coma-schumacher-case-040446141.html#DCe6vLc
http://www.sochi2014.com/en
http://rio2016.com/en/the-games/paralympic/event
http://www.rio2016.org/en


Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster on  28th January 1986  at 11:38 EST (16:38 UTC) [Wikipedia]

Casualties:
Francis R. Scobee, Commander
Michael J. Smith, Pilot
Ronald McNair, Mission Specialist
Ellison Onizuka, Mission Specialist
Judith Resnik, Mission Specialist
Greg Jarvis, Payload Specialist
Christa McAuliffe, Payload Specialist

Inquiries Rogers Commission

[courtesy of Wikipedia:   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disaster]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zoe-p-strassfield/double-feature_b_2708522.html

Syria-Another Example of 'Peace In Our Time'?

The withdrawal of an offer to include Iran as part of the peace talks does not herald well either for the Syrian people nor for long-term peace. Before I explain why, it is important to add that from an American public perspective, so long as U.S. Forces are not being ordered to fight alongside or under Al Qaeda, most could not care whether Assad stays or goes,it has now become a non-issue.

Syria's Future Under Al Qaeda/Islamic Jihadi Emirates and Caliphates

Firstly, as with Afghanistan and Iraq, the rights of ordinary people will quickly disappear from CNN, Fox and other mainstream news bulletins after Al Qaeda affiliated Islamists take power. [Women are more imprisoned now in Afghanistan than they ever were. There has hardly been a period in recent Afghan history when the rights of women have even been acknowledged let alone respected.] As far as mainstream media is concerned, their job will have been done and their editors will no longer find the rights of individuals under their new Islamic [Al Qaeda affiliated] 'government' as it works towards it's implementation of a unified Ummah-Al Qaeda style. After Al Qaeda emerges from the chaos following the removal of Assad (whenever that is) their interpretation of Shari'ah-compliant Laws will be implemented in the new Emirate or Caliphate. The most important Shia Holy Sites will be desecrated and Shias will be forced to flee the country. Likewise other [and through their eyes] idolatrous and blasphemous sites - Christian Churches, remaining Jewish graveyards and all other minority idolatrous versions of Islam will be leveled as such are the Satan's work (i.e. Western introduced and influenced) - according to their version of the Koran. Draconian Islamic codes will be introduced-as CNN and other media wriggle their way to explain to a confused Western and non-Muslim public how these changes will benefit the Syrian people. All that aside to believe that these fanatics will stop within the borders of Syria is not just a myth but shows either incredible ignorance or naivety of both Western politicians and their so-called 'think-tank' institutions. Likewise to think that they can be pacified and will continue to present an image of stability (as for example,how the Syrian opposition have been groomed to wear Western suits and trim some beards to appear 'presentable' to the unsuspecting general public at the Peace Talks) is likewise a myth. Egypt is initially too big a country for Al Qaeda to conquer-at least initially.Neither will they initially take on Israel-but it will never be far from their ultimate thoughts and objectives-long-term. So the next vulnerable countries in their sights will be Jordan,The Yemen then linking across to Somalia,Mali,Niger and Mauritania. Morocco has had a long and bitter dispute with the Polisario Liberation Front for independence in the Western Sahara. Should failure to negotiate a peace treaty because of lack of good faith on the part of the government of Morocco occur, what will transpire, I believe, will be that the Polisario Front will be transformed by the appearance of seasoned Al Qaeda fighters (under another banner name of course) and their presence will alter the course of this long and protracted war - tipping the balance against the Moroccan government and possibly leading to a coup d'état by officers anxious to do a deal to save the rest of the country from a disastrous military conflict it's armed forces are simply not professionally prepared,experienced (nor motivated) to fight and win on their own.  All of this can of course be prevented if pre-emptive action is taken to solve these regional conflicts and ensure development aid for such impoverished regions [together with better local security arrangements in conjunction with central governments] are implemented before Al Qaeda and it's affiliates take hold - and take the initiative - in the Maghreb. 
The Heart of Darkness - Eye Of The Storm

To simplify matters, if you take a ruler and draw a straight line from St. Louis in the North of Senegal to Mogadishu (Somalia), North of this line is territory Al Qaeda and their contracted affiliates ultimately wish to consolidate into Emirates with Emirs in Africa and a Caliphate in Iraq. What Western politicians  (who, for the most part, are pretty ignorant of the history of these regions - and are advised by individuals and institutes which, likewise,are also not up to the job) do not understand is that they will not be able to conduct their normal oil,diamonds,gold yellowcake uranium and other strategic mineral extractions with religious idealists who see no future in the 'Devils' (in Western capitalism) money because their treasure is an eternal one and their concept of trade and development can only take place within an Islamic structure independent of 'Satan' (i.e. America and it's Allies.)

The U.S. still does not get the picture - that the very forces it is working so hard to place in power in Syria will cause decades (if not more) of misery for all the peoples of the Levant and North Africa.

I am only glad I will not be around to see it all - but do not ever let them lie to you in their memoirs by saying they didn't know what the terrible outcome would be and had they known the human misery and destruction forthcoming they would have acted otherwise.

Patrick Emek

Salafism:

the real shape of things to come in the Middle East and North Africa:

http://www.islamicsupremecouncil.com/unity.htm

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Polisario&client=firefox-a&hs=KIX&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=np&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=FCDeUq_NI8GthQeu4oCgCA&ved=0CDoQsAQ&biw=1024&bih=601
http://www.statehoodandfreedom.org/en/conflict-viewpoints/polisarios-position
Declassified/General Distribution/Oak Ridge/Yellowcake/Keg Mountain Deposits
http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/09/417/9417374.pdf 
[Geological and Geochemical Aspects of Uranium Deposits]
http://www.wise-uranium.org/upafr.html
Uranium Intrigue in The Niger:Ambassador Joe Wilson was setup:
Provisionally Declassified:Yellowcake in Niger/forgery documents
United States Department of State,Washington D.C. 2003:
http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB215/def_ex/DX71.pdf

What On Earth Is Happening On The Sun?

-The Maunder Minimum Returns-

[Or Is This Just The 'Silly' Season?]

 Have you noticed how cold it is in Wisconsin and Nebraska?  Indeed have you checked how warm it is in Great Britain for this time of year?  Or indeed the unusual climatic variations right across Europe in January-which are significantly at variation with previous years for the month of January?  If you have, and like myself, you are interested in the political debate about global warming and global freezing [and to be quite honest, I am very confused  and really don't know which of the scientific groups to believe], you might however want to check out an interesting technical and scientific article below about the sun's activity.   For those of you too busy to check it out, the essence of the article is a quote from one of the world's most respected solar physicists, Richard Harrison, Head of Space Physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, who told the BBC that in his 30 years as a physicist, he has seen nothing like it.   I must first say that even though this area is way way way outside my Ballpark (!)...but..(!)....on 15th December last year, I contacted one  of the world's renowned experts in solar and space 'weather', Jan Alvestad, [ http://www.spaceweather.com.au/ ] to ask if, during  a very specific period (in hours and minutes) between 14th-15th December, any unusual solar occurrences had transpired.  His answer was negative and I apologized profusely for interrupting his observations.   As I am not a professional in this matter and so as to the avoid ridicule and laughter of experts, I quietly but put my own observations to file and closed the case in the firm belief that I was hopelessly in error of an unusual pattern of climatic shift associated with a very specific set of my [imagined] solar events which may have 'peaked' on 'silence' in a given time frame I had [imagined I had] noted.   Having just read an article posted by News Network Limited on 19th January, 2014 at 1:36AM [http://www.couriermail.com.au/technology/science/scientists-baffled-as-sun-activity-falls-to-century-low/story-fnjwlbuh-1226805090679] someone with more scientific expertize [and journalistic courage!] has beaten me to it and boldly said that there is indeed unusual activity taking place on the sun and that there could be profound climatic implications resulting.  The article is entitled 'Scientists baffled as Sun activity falls to century low'.  The point I want to make here is that scientists should not be baffled.  The arrogance in thinking that we [humans] understand the cycle of an entity which had been in existence roughly 4.6 billion years - when we just understand the workings of the female [human] menstrual cycle, is itself beyond belief.  I don't know if there is something happening in the Sun's cycle which is a repeat of a pattern [Maunder cycle] which we can relate to from the first time of our own primitive empirical observations, or is part of a cycle which repeats every 50000 or 50 or 500 million years.  What I do know is that politicians [and private institutes] had better release more funds to further observe such events because of their direct impact on our way of life over a relatively short timescale between observation and effect.

© Patrick Emek


Additional Reference [2014/01/28]:Sun Scientists Debate Whether Solar Lull Could Trigger Another 'Little Ice Age' -The Huffington Post-  By Macrina Cooper-White http://www.spaceweather.com.au/tag/jan-alvestad/
http://www.spaceweather.com.au/
http://www.startribune.com/local/238780081.html 
http://newsfeed.time.com/2014/01/05/blaze-turns-historic-nebraska-opera-house-into-icy-winter-wonder/
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rare-snows-in-north-africa/61172
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2523259/Historic-snow-fall-turns-Holy-Land-scenes-Christmas-cards.html [13th December,2013]
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/12/snow-in-cairo-for-first-time-in-over-100-years.html
[12/13/2013]

Egypt In Turmoil (Part II):

Kangaroo Media Announce Constitutional Election Results

Egyptian radio and TV have announced that 99.999999% of the population voted in favor of the Military Council-produced new Constitution. (A nationwide hunt... is currently underway... for the one terrorist and traitor,the Muslim Brotherhood traitor, who voted against it.) [If you want to see what happened in Part I of this glorious Arab Democratic Spring revolution in Egypt-where the Muslim Brotherhood,also, as they claimed, supported by 99.999999% of the patriotic Islamic population, brought freedom,peace and democracy to 99.999999% of the population - and they too,on that occasion, were engaged in a nationwide hunt... for the one terrorist and traitor, the Christian traitor, who voted against it-read my earlier Blog 'Egypt In Turmoil' to get the full, unbiased, picture!]                         Patrick Emek

Egypt In Turmoil (Part II)(Latest)
Kangaroo Judiciary to put Donkey (already in custody with Jackals and Hyenas on more serious charges-see Part I) on trial for 'insulting the Judiciary' because....he called it: 'a Kangaroo Judiciary.'

A Cold Day In 'Political' Hell (!)

Brit Hume - On The Chris Christie Debacle

Ariel Sharon - On His Demise and Debacle

Brit Hume's Candid Comments On The Feminization Of Modern  Society
With regard to the current 'Witch Hunt' against aspiring Republican Presidential Candidate Governor Christie,recently Brit Hume said it as he see's it on Fox News: "I would have to say that in this sort of feminized atmosphere in which we exist today, guys who are masculine and muscular like that in their private conduct, kind of old fashion tough guys, run some risk.... This guy is very much an old fashioned masculine, muscular guy, and there are political risks associated with that. Maybe it shouldn’t be,but that’s how it is." NJ's charismatic Governor Christie, a staunch supporter of Israel, is also firmly in the sights of the Muslim extremists-whom, by stealth, are targeting all known supporters of the Jewish State in a hate campaign directed toward the next U.S. Presidential election.  Prime Minister Netanyahu remarked during Christie's first overseas official trip in 2012 that "There is much in common between Israel and New Jersey. Your territory and ours are similar, as are the number of residents, though it's possible that the residents of New Jersey have better neighbors." (He might well have also been talking about the internal politics in both States!)
Ariel Sharon-On The Road To Damascus
As Israel is in the news I cannot but remark on the death of Ariel Sharon that he was a true patriot and friend of the United States.  The great blemish on this War Hero's historic reputation will always be Sabra and Shatila-where Christian Arab Phalange butchers went on a frenzy of house to house slaughter of Muslims- regardless of age-men,women,babies children and the elderly . In a period of two days between 16-18 September, 1982, during the Civil War in the Lebanon, Christian Arabs went on a frenzied slaughter of Muslims-mainly women,the elderly,babies and children in these two Palestinian refugee camps.  The massacre was in reprisal for the assassination of yet another extremist,the Christian leader of the Phalange, Bashir Gemayel, and indeed they wrongly blamed the Palestinians for this killing.  As Israel was in occupation of Lebanon and had given the green light to the Phalange to 'flush out' any remaining Palestinian fighters who had not evacuated the camps, Israel was responsible for the actions of it's ally at that that time-the Phalange Christian fighters.  Sharon has been falsely accused of organizing this massacre.  This is historically and factually incorrect. What is not inaccurate is the fact that he should have know better than to give Christian Militias a free hand in their nemesis-Palestinian refugee camps-which was an invitation to slaughter. I noted the absence of many European dignitaries at the funeral of this War Hero and freedom fighter. Joe Biden, fittingly, represented The President of The United States at this State funeral. The Wall Street journal quotes a settler leader,Zeev Hever,as saying that the settlers were 'pained' by Sharon's later doubts about the wisdom of the settlements in the occupied territories,but that the settlers,nonetheless,would continue never to give up (their hold on this territory), as Sharon had originally, (and much earlier in his life) believed and had said.   In fact the truth was that Ariel Sharon was himself pained with doubt about the wisdom of incorporating so much Arab territories and populations within Israeli administrative rule-this no doubt was shaped in part by his knowledge (and sad experience) of what extremism ultimately leads to (i.e. the hatred of man and women for their fellow men and women which led to the Holocaust,the massacres in Sabra and Shatila and,on another continent in another place and time, events which initiated Operation Solomon-the Israeli Air Force rescue in a little more than 24 hours,one single night, of the entire Ethiopian Jewish population from starvation,intended hostage-massacre,and discrimination at the hands of their Ethiopian Christian fellow-citizens, ; the Holocaust of Tutsi people in the African country of Rwanda- that the hatreds causing these tragedies were no different, Sharon finally realized, and could see this monster for what it really was, very late in his life.)  Before his untimely stroke,Sharon was on the verge of a monumental policy shift with regard to Israel and Palestine,one which might have taken the world, maybe,on a very different course it is on today.    It's so difficult to say, as in the film 'The Time Machine'...'but what if....'... because none of us can go back and change the past...but we can shape the future.  I believe it was similar to the George Wallace  'conversion' to desegregation in the United States.  Indeed such conversions, which are not at all unknown - those of Gerry Adams and The Reverend Ian Paisley (Northern Ireland), the transformations in what was once Apartheid South Africa ('Pik' Botha and Nelson Mandela) and all involving monumental paradigm shifts-appear to be 'the norm'  when a 'higher level of thinking' intervenes.
An Eye For an Eye-Everyone Goes Blind
One thing that I am certain about is that Zeev Hever is wrong and the future is not shaped in hatred,no compromise and no surrender-an attitude also bedeviling the mentality of the Arab world today.  I recently attended a function with a prominent politician where he pledged support for the besieged Christian Arab population in Syria but was quite adamant that it would be a mistake to support their exodus to Christian lands.  So what myself and Zeev Hever both do have in common,despite our diametrically opposing views and perceptions,is that in a world of compromise, not a single Jewish settlement requires uprooting from the so-called 'Occupied Territories'-but for very different and, to many readers, incomprehensibly opposite reasons:  One day both Israeli and Palestinian Arab Authorities themselves may well have to learn, the unthinkable, from scratch. That is, how to administer Jews and Arabs societies based on plurality rather than sectarianism. Sadly, our reality will probably be that this will only happen, 'When Hell Freezes Over'.

Patrick Emek

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/13/chris-christie-feminized-fox-news-masculine-bully_n_4589119.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/02/chris-christie-israel_n_1396661.html
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/brit-hume-fox-news-christie-too-tough-feminized-atmosphere

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303595404579318163204215566?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F %2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303595404579318163204215566.html

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ian-Paisley-rushed-to-hospital-for-tests-237878641.html

http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20120608/NEWS/120609818#gsc.tab=0    
(Son says former Gov. George Wallace repented for past)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabra_and_Shatila_massacre 
Operation Solomon: The Daring Rescue of the Ethiopian Jews
by Stephen Spector, published by Oxford University Press Inc,Madison Ave,NY 10016,
[2005] ISBN-10: 0-19-517782-7
Fiction films (but based on real events-the first more so than the second) you might wish to watch- typifying many African countries even as at today: Hotel Rwanda 
Tears of The Sun (the only film starring Bruce Willis I would ever recommend you to watch!)
The Wild Geese

Panama In Crisis

In a move over the past few days, which has received little attention from the world media because of the holidays,the President of Panama has unilaterally (and possibly unconstitutionally) reversed the country's long-standing status as a tax haven.   The fact that the status is reversed-and companies registered in Panama must pay tax on all assets generating profit overseas,is not an issue in itself.    (Indeed the U.S. government,more specifically,the firm,has for many decades,utilized the services of Panamanian banks and other registered organizations for the conduct of business outside the territorial jurisdiction of the United States.  This situation has been changing over the past decade to 15 years and Panama no longer provides such services on behalf of U.S. government agencies.)   What appears to be the issue is not the fact that Panama,as from 31st December 2013,is no longer a tax haven,but the unconstitutional way in which President Martinelli,has,without legislative approval,introduced these changes to the Panama taxation code.     (From what I understand,the legislators were away for the Christmas festive holiday when the President,already accused as dictatorial in  style of governance,without accountability nor consultation,changed the tax status.)    Does this matter to anyone but the rich and super rich?  The issue appears to be the fact that there will be a flight of capital out of Panama-which could potentially either destabilize the country or make it vulnerable to heading down the path to becoming a failed state-and the geostrategic implications of this for the entire region-especially for neighboring Colombia,Nicaragua and the highly unstable Guatemala,Honduras and potentially, the British Commonwealth Territory of Belize (an unintended consequence of instability and territorial disputes with neighboring countries which could also, potentially,as fallout consequence,be also on the verges of economic collapse.)    So there is the potential for a dominoes effect throughout the entire region if the Panamanian economy topples overnight.   The only winners in this case will be the drug barons and cartels-who will extend their influence into a flailing Panamanian economy and ultimately create the same crises Colombia has been dealing with for several decades.
Genesis of The Crisis
For some time Panama has been experiencing a huge hidden financial deficit.    The Panamanian press on the other hand have portrayed Panama as a central American 'Tiger' economy.    To a great extent Panama has been a miracle growth economy and the gap between  wealth and poverty has lessened over the past two decades.   This is also, in part,however,the same fallacy which bedeviled the Irish 'Celtic' Tiger economy-fueled as it was by excessive borrowing based on unrealistic property and financial services-related inflated-led growth and not on 'real' (capital goods) export-led growth.    In the case of the Panamanian economy a similar credit boom has inflated the economy-which is now on the verge of collapse.   The President has been accused of all kinds of illegal and criminal activities-by his political enemies of course.  This over-simplifies a very complicated situation-which the President's appointed financial advisors in part created through fiscal mismanagement but which is more in part due to the bad hand he was dealt when he assumed Office.   (Remind you of  someone you know in Washington?)
Standing By Friends In Times of Crises
Panama has been a stalworth ally of the U.S. through many crises and has acted as an honest  broker in other difficult circumstances.   The economy is potentially on the brink of collapse.   What I am about to say is entirely speculative.   I believe that President Martinelli was briefed during the course of the year 2013 by close advisers that the country would run into default sometime in 2014 if drastic steps were not taken to address the huge gap between taxation income and Government expenditure.   With a hostile and bellicose legislature the President was left with few options.    He could either be called a dictator (which,as soon as the world gets wind of this he most certainly will be) or his re-election prospects could go down the toilet with the economy.   In short, I believe he was snookered.    It's true that the Government of Panama is overspending-but so was the U.S. as were most European governments-especially France-which is also on the verge of economic collapse-and has just introduced a 75% rate of taxation on high net worth individuals in an attempt to stave off bankruptcy of the French economy.   (There is a joke in Europe that if the Germans (German capital-heavy industry) ever stop working,the Euro and the EU will collapse overnight!)    The only countries in Europe which are financially stable are Great Britain,Germany, Switzerland,Austria,Liechtenstein,Andorra,Monaco,Sweden and Norway and of those, the one to which most of the world (Christian and non-Christian) is flocking to invest for reasons of political religious and social stability and a business-friendly proactive environment (similar to Panama in terms of Government incentives to foreign investors) is Great Britain.  In the Americas, investors worldwide are likewise flocking to the United States-not because of the recession but because of political stability and the cost of entry investment is at a historically ridiculously low level not seen since the 1929 depression.
Panamanian economic growth,has,unlike the Republic of Ireland,been private sector-growth-led, together with investment from the Government.   Foreign sector investment however has not been enough in the present world financial crises to sustain it's GDP level-which was  surpassing most other countries in the region by between 4.8%-7.00% over the past decade-with a considerable narrowing of the debt to GDP ratio.    In addition to this,for some time,Panama has not been viewed as the taxation haven it used to be-so revenues for company registration,administration and returns (which have been some of the highest in the world) have also been steadily drying up.
The Rocky Road Ahead
Panama is still one of the safest (from a personal safety viewpoint) countries in Central America.
From an investment viewpoint I have never heard any negative comments only positive ones with regard to the ease of doing business without fear of organized crime rackets-which exists in many Central American countries (similar to those operating in Moscow,Russia.)   I cannot say the same of Guatemala,Mexico and Colombia where you are, in addition, most certainly unsafe walking the capitol city at night-and I am talking about the so-called 'safe' areas.)   From a business viewpoint,it has had a reputation for being proactively business-friendly.   When government resumes after the Christmas break (shortly) there will be uproar (if not pandemonium) in Panama City and legislators en masse will be demanding President Martinelli's resignation.    Before you join the frenzied mainstream media-driven chorus,get all the facts you can.
Panama is in crisis but you know what, I can think of few parts of the world at present which are not.  
If I can rework a phrase I've heard in another context,it's not the crisis which counts,it's the way you handle it.


Patrick Emek
January 2014



Crisis? What Crisis?
Latest Update (as at 6th January 2013):
Cabinet Approves Bill To Revoke Law 120 of 2013

''The Cabinet Council revokes law establishing taxable income outside Panamanian territory:Panama Administration will continue local-source taxation.  The Panama Administration accepted its mistake in trying to impose worldwide taxation instead of the local-source taxation system in place under Article 694 of the Tax Code of 1957.''

''The Panama Cabinet approved a bill to revoke Law 120 of 2013 which had eliminated tax benefits to Panama companies and individuals performing transactions which take affect outside of the country.''

[in an Extraordinary Cabinet Session (held on 2nd January 2014) article 694 of the Tax Code is completely reestablished stating that: “it is object of this tax the taxable income produced, in any way, inside the territory of the Republic of Panama, regardless of the place received”] [The project will be presented on Monday, January 6th when the National Assembly retakes their regular period of sessions.] 

 ''The President Ricardo Martinelli blamed current Revenue Authority (ANIP) administrator Luis Cucalon for the passage of Law 120 of 2013, while Vice-Minister Luis E. Camacho assumed responsibility and current Minister of Economy Frank De Lima (author of restrictions to bearer shares on behalf of the OECD) said more consultations were necessary.   The fact remains that several dozen legislators of the government Cambio Democratico party approved the law in its 3rd reading and failed to predict the onslaught of public opinion opposing this change to the Tax Code. '' 

 http://mypanamalawyer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/panama-administration-will-continue.html

http://mypanamalawyer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/panama-cabinet-votes-to-revoke-law-120.html
Earlier references (as at 31st December 2013-1st January2014):
PDF]
http://www.gacetaoficial.gob.pa/pdfTemp/27443_A/44901.pdf
http://www.presidencia.gob.pa/5183-Articulos-2-y-3-de-Ley-120-seran-derogados
(English translation available at the Presidential Website) 
Disrupting Drug Trafficking Networks – Progress in 2013 by: Michael Swanson
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/Disrupting--Drug-Trafficking-Networks-.aspx