King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulajev)

Reports have it that Thailand's much loved and revered King Bhumibol is again in ailing health.

Fortunately his premature expiration has been falsely predicted on many occasions and, for many years, he has managed to soldier on – and the country continues prosper as a beacon of economic success and development for South East Asia and rest of the world.

Most Thais would rejoice if the King's daughter succeeded her father to the throne.

She is (genuinely) much loved by the populace as a whole.

But the Royal line of succession precludes a Queen of Siam.

It is for this reason that millions of Thais are praying that the King will continue to live – for forever and a day.   We all know that such is not going to happen and talk in the country about the Royal succession, whilst strictly forbidden, is nonetheless the main event in every other Thai household.

The King's son, however, is the likely successor.

[Interestingly, there has been a Buddhist prophesy for centuries that after the IX Rama, the dynasty will end.   I am unclear as to whether this solely refers to the male lineage or the dynasty as a whole.   There are so many different versions and interpretations of this prophesy that it would just be too confusing to mention all of them - other than to say that some Thais give considerable weight and respect to prophesy.]

King Bhumibol has brought stability, economic prosperity and development for Thailand as a whole.

Yes, admittedly there are groups – political parties, farmers, local communities, trades union representatives who will tell you a different story - and there are genuine grievances about wealth distribution, corruption, intrigues for power and influence within the elite of the Armed Forces and the Royal Thai Police.

Then there are border disputes with Cambodia which, thanks to international mediation and restraint by both sides, rarely escalate beyond occasional skirmishes over temples.

In November of last year, much to the disappointment of Thailand, the U.N. Court ruled in favor of Cambodia in the area around Preah Vihear Temple and ordered Thai forces to withdraw from the immediate vicinity.  This area is likely to be the flashpoint for further future conflict between the two countries as Thai nationalists and their supporters in the armed forces will never accept this decision.

There is also the prospect of Islamic insurgency intensifying in the South of the country as Malaysia does little to bring the insurgents to heel - for fear that the Jihadi militias will turn their attention (guns and bombs) to waging a campaign to destabilize the peace and quiet of Malaysia proper and an even greater threat is that they will link across with Jihadi insurgents in the province of Sabah to create a unified front – which could have devastating consequences for economic and political stability in the region as a whole.
[The Malaysia authorities will argue that they work in cooperation with Thai security forces to prevent terrorist infiltration across both sides of the border and will also suggest that arms and explosives are reaching Islamic rebels not across the Thai-Malaya border but from other countries.]

Hence the successor to King Bhumibol  will require the continued unanimous support of the Police and Armed forces to ensure that peace on the Thai-Cambodia and Thai-Malaysia borders are maintained as these areas could quickly flare into all-out wars between both parties, if outstanding border and Islamic identity issues, are not resolved to the long-term satisfaction of protagonists, and continue to linger.

Patrick Emek



http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2011/08/03/kings_failing_health_and_his_30b_fortune_puts_thailand_in_jeopardy.html


http://kanchanapisek.or.th/library/Tambiah-Thailand3.htm


http://madeinthai.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/the-nine-kings-of-the-chakri-dynasty-rama-i-%E2%80%93-the-founding-father-2/


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324906004578289220025564486


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/world/asia/un-court-rules-for-cambodia-in-temple-dispute-with-thailand.html?_r=0


https://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20130108213038AAciCU3

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Erdoğan Vows To 'Crush The Internet'

An increasingly embattled and politically isolated Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan threatened to 'wipe out' the Internet – or at least the part of it which 'Tweets' to the rest of the world.

Salafist supporter Erdoğan is himself on the brink of being ousted as his mounting numbers of political and military enemies all weigh up their chances of replacing this increasingly out-of-touch fanatic with a secular government.

The velvet glove of moderation has now been replaced to display the iron fist of brutality, mediaevalized perception of the world, repression and intolerance – bywords for Salafism and Wahhabism.

Prime Minister Erdoğan derives his core support from the uneducated and ultra-religious fanatical Muslim masses in Turkey – Central and Eastern Anatolia being two very important regions. The situation is very similar to that of The Shah of Iran before he was toppled. You have the educated populace which have gravitated to the big cities and larger towns in Turkey then you have the uneducated mass which still predominantly live in the countryside far removed from the 'modern thinking' world and who derive their education and information from (increasingly Salafist-sympathetic) Imams, Turkish and Saudi television and radio stations which broadcast vile and inciteful propaganda against Christians, Jews, Shiite and other 'non-believers' 24/7.

 One positive thing to note is that the continuing draconian and repressive measures of Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan are rapidly increasing the likelihood of his early his replacement and the restoration of Turkey to Atatürk secular values and principles in the very near future.

It will probably be similar to Egypt where the Salafists created (as to be expected) such chaos and discord that someone had to step in before the whole country fell apart.

Patrick Emek

March 18^th 2014, Herr Putin Incorporates The Süd(eten)land, A Region of The Ukraine formerly known as The Crimea, Back Into Russia


To the loud acclaims of ''Führer! Führer! Führer!'' in the Bier Halle, Herr Putin, Führer and Reichsführer, confirmed that the Will of the Volk of Crimea would be heard by signing off on the incorporation Treaty of Friendship.
Herr Putin said at the Bier Halle Rally that The Empire of Russia has no further territorial ambitions and that the process of 'Anschluss' [Anschluß ] has now been completed.
'Peace In Our Time' was also proclaimed by Herr Putin in the Bier Halle.
Herr Putin did however warn that if Anschluß is not accepted by the international community, The Empire of Russia  reserves the right to revise it's position.


For what was actually said, you can hear and watch all of Reichsführer Putin's Bier  Halle Rally Speech at Russia Today TV networks website:



Patrick Emek 

references:
http://rt.com/politics/official-word/vladimir-putin-crimea-address-658/

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/jittery-customers-run-banks-crimea-22898299

Russia: Reserve the Right to Intervene in Ukraine

MOSCOW March 13, 2014 (AP)

Flight MH370 - Terrorism Without An Objective?

I would like to propose an entirely different direction for the inquiry into the disappearance of flight MH370:

1.That neither the pilot nor co-pilot were involved.

2.That there were breaches of security over prolonged periods while this particular plane was on the ground, either at one or at several different locations, which facilitated the ability of terrorists to prepare storage areas in the underbelly for the intended mission.

3.There were persons hiding in the underbelly (where all of the mechanical and electronics are located.) The number would probably be 4-6 persons.

The minimum number would be 2.

A number of tasks would have to be accomplished which could not be achieved without access to the cockpit.  Hence having at least 2 on board as passengers and the assistance of one crew member would be critical.

This would have to be facilitated over a period of time so that spaces were 'created' in the electronics and mechanical areas in the 'belly' of the plane.

4.The last facility would have been rudimentary breathing devices and either an appropriately insulated area or just extra warm clothing worn by the hijackers.

Number of Terrorists Involved

It would also mean that at least 4 persons-possibly as many as 6 were actually on the plane, two as passengers. They may never have met but trained separately-simply combining and meeting on the plane – identifying each other by clothes, dress code or simply by carrying similar versions of the same book or some other object.

They would have to be sure to gain access to the cabin cockpit area.

This might involve a separate observation 'team' or just one person on each journey (different individuals on each occasion) gathering intelligence on crew in-flight patterns.

This could be greatly facilitated by a member of the crew who had flown with one or both pilots over a prolonged period of time – so at least one crew member would be a considerable asset for such a mission.

If there were no accomplices on the plane it would at least have been necessary to have one crew member as part of the team – this would be the very least required.

If there were accomplices, posing as passengers, this crew member could also facilitate the 'friendly' recognition or identification of each terrorist - hitherto unknown  even to each other.

Elevation To A High Altitude

The purpose of elevating the plane could have been to hypoxiate all of the passengers-ensuring in advance that the automated oxygen masks were cut - or indeed they never operated because they had been disabled from operating.

This would simplify the tasks ahead and reduce the number of personnel required to carry out the mission.

Motivation

This mission, if indeed it occurred, would require a very high degree of commitment and motivation because it involves checking to ensure that all passengers - men, women and children - are effectively 'immobilized' – not a task for the faint-hearted – which is why I say that to invoke this stage of the plan would mean persons commandeering the plane would have to have a remarkably high level of motivation and commitment to whatever cause it is they would be espousing.

Anyone with such commitment would almost for certain ensure that other crew members were also disabled.   So neither pilot, co-pilot nor crew would be required as the hijackers would already have on-board the required skills to complete the mission.

 This would mean that the skills required to fly the plane were already available amongst the terrorists.

Management Issues

As all passengers are unconscious or disabled there are no 'management' issues to attend – thereby freeing up the unknown persons to carry out whatever the prime motive was for the hijacking.

If the objective was solely the plane-to store it, change it's transponder and other identifying marks, then the passengers are of no value – as they were never the intended objective of the mission.

What 9/11 has shown us is that such motivation for religious-political ideals mitigate against safety.

The only critical issue was the success of the mission - at all costs.

Rationale

From a psychological viewpoint, it would be easier to dispose of 239 + persons, hypoxiated, than it would be to kill each man, woman and child, individually.  Apart from everything else, such is impractical on an plane in flight.

For this to be effective, simply flying at a height with no available oxygen and minor technical adjustments for a very definite period of time would complete this task – relieving the hijackers of the trauma involved in 'close up and personal' and in the management of 233-235 (unpredictable) individuals.

The Mission

Such, however would be a major operation involving a considerable number of individuals.

They would have to be carefully selected by a core group.

It would also be convenient to carefully identify someone who would more likely than not fall under immediate suspicion and divert attention away from the real motives – at least for long enough for the mission to be accomplished.   This in itself would require painstaking observation and intelligence gathering – not an easy task for a ( non-State assisted) terrorist group.

The Planning

It is likely that such a mission would require several years in the planning.

It's almost inconceivable – but so was 9/11.

Temporary Security Measures To Obstruct

The point I want to make here is that should this plane continue to reside on the 'missing' list, then every similar Boeing 777 should be immediately fitted with unique new identification codes,transmitting by the millisecond, which cannot be easily replicated.

Indeed, I would go much further for all airplanes but the initial costs of modifications would be so prohibitive as to make such unrealistic, at the present time.

This should also involve an immediate worldwide grounding of every similar 777 for re-fitting or upgrading.

The airlines industry will, in my opinion, be reluctant to implement such a procedure on the basis of disruption and costs with no clear evidence of an immediate threat available.

As I said earlier, the bottom line for the airline industry is profit and unless something else dramatic happens, NTSB will not take any immediate steps to increase airline operators costs on the basis of speculation alone.

My own view is that it that, should the plane continue 'missing' it might be cheaper (in the longer term) to implement such new technologies and new security policy and procedures with immediate effect than to lose the confidence of the air traveling public, if the worst should happen.

OK, Well Where Did It Land - If It Did Not Crash?

I do not know the answer to that question.

The purpose of the above speculation is not to confuse nor waste time nor resources but to alert about the possibility of intended terrorism.

The incident of a plane with 239 passengers and crew going missing for over a week must send up a red flag for vigilance regardless of the ultimate outcome and whether the plane (or wreckage) is eventually found and the causes turning out to be perfectly rational, if not tragic.

Far-Fetched?

After 9/11, no theory , for myself,  is ever too far-fetched until evidence is produced to the contrary.

Because the Malaysian authorities were initially less than forthcoming (the Chinese authorities have gone much further accusing them of being, at the very least, totally duplicitous) it was really difficult to make out exactly what was going on.  Many say that they are still not entirely forthcoming and there is really no way to be sure.
As I said in my first article, before the row about the paucity and accuracy of information from the Malaysian authorities erupted, there is always a tendency to attempt to 'save face' - especially before Indonesia and China in this particular instance.
If anyone is to be 'sacrificed' it cannot be any of 'the protected ones'  (as one French journalist correctly pointed out)  and certainly blame cannot be attributed to aviation nor airport 'security lapses'  - as such would result in public humiliation for those ultimately responsible at the very top of the 'pecking order'.  India is not the only country which has 'Sacred Cows'.
So whatever the outcome or conclusion, no fault will ultimately be attributed to the former nor latter and all blame will ultimately be carried by the pilot and co-pilot.

Should this Marie Celeste of the skies continue to wander through the pages of our imaginations for much longer I will be seriously questioning what the hell we have so many military tracking satellites for if we cannot even find a 777, triangulation or no triangulation.  I also must seriously question the preparedness of developing countries to deal with a real or imagined scenario as outlined in this article because the next time it happens, the 777 could be carrying a nuclear payload - passengers and crew having being immobilized, deposited, and substituted elsewhere.

Update as at 20th March - A Likely Act of Intended Terrorism , In My Opinion
The more new information which is emerging the more I am convinced that this was an act of terrorism -more than just a hijacking gone wrong. 
Let me give my reasoning:
First I am still to be persuaded that either the Captain (the pilot) or His Deputy were involved.
It may have been that at some stage a gun was put to the pilot's head instructing him to change both altitude and direction.  He was given new coordinates.  At a crossroad point he was then given a new set of coordinates.   At this point realizing (perhaps being aware of the likely destination where he was being instructed to ultimately set course for) he inverted the flightpath flying initially at 90 degrees  - straight line, turning due North - a further 90 degrees, then turning West 90 degrees, then due South - giving a total of  360 degrees; if 2 turns were involved, one  arching back over Malaysia then a second either on a bearing  due North or due South)  and somehow managed to lock or disable the controls - perhaps even securing the cockpit while not being in full control of the plane's electronics.)
This would be the only clue he could logically leave about what had happened, should the very worst transpire.
He would only have done this if he himself was convinced, from what was happening on board, that to do otherwise would be the greater endangerment for himself, his passengers and his crew. I appreciate that this sounds highly improbable but, again, until a theory which makes sense emerges, I find the erratic flight behavior otherwise difficult to account for - other than, of course, a complete mental breakdown of either the pilot or co-pilot,whereupon one of them succumbed.


However, it fits my theory of an attempted hijack which - went disastrously and tragically wrong.

So, in my humble opinion, the final destination may well have been exactly due North or South of where the plane or it's debris will ultimately be found.

Mass Suicide Scenario:
More Questions About  Malaysia Airlines'  Systemic Management Weaknesses

(It has been suggested that personal family problems may have caused the pilot to commit 'mass suicide'.  This cannot be discounted  but I still have issues understanding the context and should this ultimately emerge to be a likely cause, I am failing to understand how Malaysia Airlines could not be aware of circumstances which could impair the pilot's capabilities to fulfill his tasks.) 

Even if this loss of an airline with all passengers and crew is not eventually found to be a case of terrorism, it's handling highlight many operational and procedural failings which hopefully the aftermath of this tragedy will attempt to rectify.


On this story, I will now conclude, and leave the rest to the professionals and forensic experts.

Patrick Emek



updated 18th and 19th March 2014

The 'Disappearance' of Flight MH370: Why China Is Correct In It's Criticisms of The Malaysian Authorities

          

     Why China Is Correct In It's Criticisms of Malaysian Authorities

Without speculating about the fate of the aircraft MH370, I would like to comment on something I do know about.

The information being relayed by Malaysian authorities concerning the unresolved location of flight MH370 appears to be wholly inadequate.

This is according to Chinese authorities - who have every right to criticism as the majority of the passengers on MH370 were Chinese nationals, whose relatives are now beyond distraught.

From a Western perspective it appears at first perplexing that say, for example, a Malaysian Minister will at first politely and courteously invite journalistic scrutiny then when the hard hitting questions are asked about anomalies in the air loss search and recover investigation, will then 'punish' such criticisms with the withdrawal of transparency and accountability for both the general public and the grieving families.

The Chinese Government, in this particular instant, has gone out of it's way to ensure full transparency and accountability and has, according to media reports, provided both adequate facilities for transport, rest and recuperation, and professional personnel for grieving relatives.

(The only facility it appears to have omitted is the availability of Monks, Imams, Priests and Pastors to talk with and console relatives of the travelers on Flight MH370 but probably such would to be expected in a professed Atheist country.)

From the South East Asian perspective, the most important criteria is not to loose face before your peers or indeed before the international community.

With smiles and polite dismissal of detailed direct questions (something South East Asian Politicians/Air Aviation Ministers and Senior Officials of Air Malaysia find discourteous - since you should never ask 'embarrassing' questions which might be heading, in their perception, in the direction of public 'confusion' and public disgrace to that Official or Officials) all efforts to get honest and direct answers (from a Western mentality perspective) are met with polite smiles and incidental answers - which are actually meaningless for the grieving distraught relatives at such 'briefings'.

This is a direct result with unfamiliarity in many societies of what we in the West would call public accountability, scrutiny and transparency in the way we understand the concept of  'transparency' and accountability.

What Malaysia appears to be most worried about is the ridicule it will most likely face as it becomes evident that it simply has no indigenous autonomous coordinated air defense system and is entirely reliant on that of it's senior military regional partners for security.  It's civilian airline tracking system is, as we can see, likewise abysmal, not subscribed into the global (pay-as-you-go) real time tracking systems and as the full extent of this weakness becomes more evident, one has to question it's ability to integrate it's systems in the event a major regional terrorist or military crises.

This could have profound implications for systems integration and real-time intelligence coordination and such implications should not be lost in the aftermath of this (probable) tragedy.

The only conclusion is that as things currently stand, Malaysia would expect it's senior Allied partners to take the responsibility for security coordination in the event of an external security threat or a major strategic or terrorist emergency of an aviation nature as it's own air defense system appears (at present) hopelessly inadequate.
This incident should also have highlighted to all South East Asian and African nations their own vulnerability to a 9/11 incident and steps which they will be required to integrate to prevent such scenarios.

We appear to be in a remarkable 'virtual reality' 'twilight'  zone of the story which as much display the Malaysian authorities inept air defense system as it does their inability, for cultural reasons, to admit systems weaknesses (it just happens to be occurring at present in the aviation sector but it could be reflective of any other aspect  life) for fear of 'loss of face'.

So we have several confabulated stories given out which frustrate the Chinese authorities as they waste valuable time and resources chasing ghost 'leads' evocated in briefings of 'smoke and mirrors' - all designed to save face.  The Director of Malaysian Airlines, Dr Hugh Dunleavy, appears more concerned at not further embarrassing the Malaysian authorities - appealing to the distraught victims families to exercise 'reason' by not asking  'awkward' questions [A SKY World Television News interview is the source of this information.]  This is one of the results of spending just too much time in such countries - you really do 'go Native' and the neural logic, reason, and speech networks get entangled when trying to reconcile the public expectations of East and West.

What you need to understand is that in many South East Asian Societies the loss of face in public is a terrible humiliation and when such occurs, somebody (or persons) must then resign in public and social disgrace - as their offense has, in this instance, will or could have humiliated the nation, before the entire world.

What we (in the West) might regard as an 'opportunity' to identify and correct areas of profound 'weakness' is sometimes perceived in the East only as something causing huge embarrassment which must not be allowed to happen again.

The boundaries of conformity and individual identity expression are shape-shifted as we move from East to West.

So, where do they go from here?

What's needed, in my opinion, is a fresh approach to this baffling enigma and an honest and open security appraisal in it's aftermath.

Perhaps inviting China, The United States, Indonesia, India and Australia to form a special joint partnership task force with the Malaysian authorities might not be the worst decision the Malaysian government might consider so that there are some new grounds for civil security cooperation (as opposed to competition) in so vital an economic region.

It appears that the United States, India, China and Australia (not to forget New Zealand) are now appreciating the 'opportunity' which this unfortunate tragedy has incidentally created, mobilizing their considerable technological satellite intelligence, maritime, military and human resources so that the initiative shifts to practical considerations and 'thinking outside the box' rather than just platitudes.

Patrick Emek

How Can A Plane Just Completely Disappear? The Mystery of Flight MH 370

A critical issue to mention is that the plane has not just 'disappeared', it simply has not yet been located.


First I would like to express my sincere condolences for the families of persons on that flight who are grieving and waiting in agony for just any information which will give them closure to (what is very likely) a tragic situation.

I am not in any way connected to the aviation industry nor to any air investigations branch nor any insurance company and my views here are entirely subjective.

I have a very simple question to ask of the air aviation industry:
In an era where we can send craft to land on planets within our own solar system and satellites beyond towards other galaxies, is it not possible to provide real-time location to the millisecond of every aircraft  in-flight on our planet today?; or are the lives of passengers not yet worth the investment in the technologies available to provide such data?
I am familiar with real-time location and there are no reasons, other than costs, why such cannot be incorporated into a variety of aspects of civilian facilities to improve safety and security.
In my opinion, the lives of public air transport passengers do not reach the profit margin where it justifies the inclusion of technologies to map by the second their in-flight journeys.
It is for this reason that all airlines are comfortable with the status quo.
Having said this, the oceans covering this planet are vast and it is simply not yet possible (for the reasons given earlier) to accurately pinpoint exact locations to the millisecond.
It will be up to the the major manufacturers of civilian aircraft in  U.S., Great Britain and Europe (The European Union) to set new directions in policies and procedures so as to ensure that air safety is improved with the inclusion of available technologies so that real-time (by the second) analysis and observation is mandatory for all in-flight civilian aircraft.




Patrick Emek

article amended for brevity and accuracy,March 12, 2014

Why A Breakneck-Speed Referendum in The Crimea For Secession and Unification with Russia?

Why A Breakneck-Speed Referendum in The Crimea For  Secession and Unification with Russia?

Constitutionally the Crimean Parliament does not have the right to secede from The Ukraine without

1.Approval of The Ukrainian Parliament in Kiev

2.A National Referendum conducted by Parliament in Kiev throughout the whole country of The Ukraine

3.Further Parliamentary approval (ratification) from Kiev following the results (if approved by the majority of the voting Ukrainian population) of such a National Referendum

So why the Crimea Horse-Race Vote at Breakneck Speed?

It's very simple.   Legally, there is no elected government in Kiev.

Whatever your view of the Democratic Spring Revolution, the Ukrainian people have not yet voted on a new government for the Republic of The Ukraine.

All of it's politicians in power in Kiev do not owe their position to a national election, vote or ballot, as we recognize civic society as existing, in Western Europe.

It is often acceptable that interim leaderships can function in the event of national crises and it is as such that the Ukrainian Parliament is currently functioning.

It is to pip this National Ukrainian Election and a  Referendum vote on secession to the post that a race is on  to cobble together a local referendum in The Crimea while it is still possible to say that the former President and his government were the last legitimate government representing all of the Ukrainian people so there is no legitimate government to negotiate with.  Such will be impossible to justify after the Parliament in Kiev has set it's own date for a national election to democratically elect the new post-Russian-dominated Parliament – as it is almost for sure that a free and fair election will confirm the new democrats in Kiev and seal their legitimate administration of the country as a whole.   So it is to prevent this, that The Crimea, as a matter of urgency, is seeking to have it's own illegal referendum on secession.  It knows it cannot win a National Referendum but for sure will win this local vote to secede and unite with Russia. The situation will become even more precarious if the Eastern Provinces and two other regions in the South also declare formulations to have their similar referendums on the same issue.   Such would certainly push the country of The Ukraine from a crisis to the brink of an economic abyss, the likes of which has never been seen in any part of Europe to date.

Whether President Putin will take such a dangerous gamble with the peace and security of continental Europe it is unclear at present.

The likely scenario is that the Eastern provinces will be firmly secured under Moscow's indirect control but no additional referendums will be promoted.  This will leave the door open for diplomacy when a new democratically elected Ukrainian Government (which will have the unanimous backing of the international community - The United States,The United Kingdom, The European Union,The African Union, and most of the OAS - other than,of course, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia and possibly 2 other South American Countries.  The position of Brazil is unclear but should it decide to vote against Ukrainian democracy after national elections, it would come as no great surprise - being itself the foremost Apartheid State in South America where over 75% of it's population is equally disenfranchised from all political and economic power.  It might similarly see Ukrainian popular democracy as setting a very dangerous precedent the likes of which, one day, itself, it will most certainly also face.) 
The position of the new government in Chile on the matter of support for the Ukrainian popular uprising against Russian domination is likewise unclear at present.  Should it decide to oppose (or indeed abstain from) recognition of the new Ukrainian democrats after national elections, and other South American nations follow suit, this will indicate a very significant shift in South American foreign perspectives and policy for a significant number of the most important countries in this region. 
The position of Argentina on recognition is very complicated.  It might, for  reasons of political expediency and the (historically profound) changing relationships between South American nations and the United States, be eager to give support to the Crimea but (in the eyes of Buenos Aires) the unresolved status of the Falkland Islands (a group of remote island off it's coast, 99% of whose population wants to remain part of the United Kingdom and retain links with the British Commonwealth) may determine otherwise.  With the support of Britain, during the administration years of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, The Falkland Islands successfully resisted a military invasion and attempted take over by the Argentinian Military Junta.  These recent historical facts may very well determine a vote in support of the new democrats in Kiev and sovereign unity of the The Ukraine as a whole.¹  Bolivia will most likely vote against recognition of the new democrats in Kiev¹ .
 Likewise the ACS (Association of Caribbean States),The Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asia Nations) and The Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) Member States ( with the exception of Iran and Syria) will most certainly recognize the new government in Kiev, after democratic elections.
The position of Israel is also quite complicated.  In an ideal world it's preference would be either to abstain - or even vote to support Russia on this particular issue.   What is likely to happen however is that Israel will vote in support of it's strategic ally, the United States, thus in favor of the new democrats in Kiev, after general elections.  
That being said, the joint security interests of Israel and Russia and the Russian Federation will henceforth be given higher priority in an area where the potential for the transfer of nuclear technology know-how to Islamic extremists in such an unstable region could have disastrous consequences for all concerned² .
China most certainly and, surprisingly, India might also possibly vote to support The Russian Federation against the legitimacy and recognition of the new Ukrainian Government in the aftermath of a national election.  [Lets be clear about China.  A vote by China to abstain from voting, is, in this instance, in effect, a vote in favor of Russia.³ ]
Should India vote to support Russia, this can most certainly be seen as direct 'fallout' from the Khobragade Incident - where an accredited Indian United Nations Diplomat was arrested, forcibly strip-searched and (internal cavity) bodily searched before being deported from the United States.   This was an insult to India's national pride - which most U.S . politicians either do not understand or simply do not care about to this day.

Patrick Emek

¹revised March 10. 2014

^{2
revised March 11, 2014
3}updated March 13,2014

Crisis In The Ukraine-What President Putin Should Really Fear

                                                             (Part II)

The Ukraine, as an economic and military entity, holds little viability without the Crimea and the Eastern Provinces.

So what then will President Putin do to resolve a crisis of his (Russia's) own making?

So far all  the Russian government's responses against the democratic uprising in the West of the Ukraine have been calculated and measured.  The reason for this, from President Putin's perspective, is because Russia is holding all of the economic cards.  The wealth of The Ukraine lies in it's Eastern provinces and it's military significance in the Crimea – both of which are firmly under the Russian sphere of influence.

So what will President Putin do?

The answer is that, logically, he needs to do very little – except reinforce the Crimea and send Special Forces to secure control of the Eastern provinces from 'infiltration'.

This will involve the invoking of an emergency preparedness scenario to take effective control of key strategic and economic facilities, to arrest potential saboteurs and 'fifth columnists'. Effectively, a sleeper Russian cell, prepared for such a scenario will likely become operative to take mimic control of all infrastructural and network routes in and out of key regions.

To believe that Russia has not prepared for this or another similar situation for many decades would be very naïve.

So, as in a game of chess, the next move is up to the West, or, to be more precise, The Ukrainian Nationalists. Can they repeat a Syria scenario – where modern urban warfare, insurgency tactics and psyops are deployed in densely populated modern cities, towns and villages?

Are there enough loyal sleeper cells deployed within administrations to effectively counter the likely tactics of Russian forces – whose strategies and tactics will have been determined by Moscow and not at local levels?

How long can such a Mexican standoff last - days, weeks, years, decades?

Can Russia afford a protracted war (insurgency) or a reign of terror against the Russian populations in regions where they constitute minorities,  in The Ukraine? 
Can Russia afford the huge displacement in refugee populations and the humanitarian fallout of such displacements?  Has Russia really prepared for such a scenario - the ability to absorb internally displaced refugees in such vast numbers?

Can normal life function under effective conditions of martial law?

At the end of the day, can Russia divert it's gas and oil priorities to counterbalance any sanctions from the United States and Western Europe?

A number of developments in recent years have taken place. One from Africa and one from Transcaucasia, which guarantee that the West is not entirely dependent on Russian oil nor gas. Several years ago, I met and discussed briefly with a former U.S. Presidential Candidate (in an informal setting) the coming online of one such project.  This, together with increased supplies from allies and the current world recession, will mean the prospects of starving Western Europe and the United Kingdom of vital oil and gas, are highly remote or at least less comprehensive to achieve than, say, even 5 years ago.

President Putin has so far played this crisis like someone holding all the Aces in the deck.

Only time will tell if he has miscalculated Jokers for Aces.

Patrick Emek

What President Putin Should Really Fear

The breakup of The Ukraine into two separate states should be a warning to President Putin about the long-term consequences of fostering ultra-nationalism and racism within Russia itself.

For a century Russia has treated it's so called autonomous regions or Republics in much the same way as Rome treated it's Barbarian colonies. They existed to provide raw materials and slave labor and little else beyond this.

Should they arrive in Rome, their work status, movements and domicile were strictly regulated to ensure their presence did not offend Romans. Naturalization (as a Roman citizen) was very difficult (next to impossible) for all but the exceptionally fortunate (or those who had become exceptionally wealthy.)

The Empire existed to benefit Rome Rule and power, nothing else.

There are of course very exceptional differences between ancient Rome, it's Empire and Russia today.

The most important difference is that Rome cultivated and nurtured it's interests throughout the Empire, conscious of the need to preserve alliances - military,social,economic and cultural. All were of course orientated toward the personification of Rome and it's values throughout the Empire. However Rome had values and systems which some Tribal Barbarian rulers thought worth adopting (in their comfort interests) throughout Barbarian Europe and Asia. The most important of which were,at the more basic level, facilities we all take for granted today - aqueducts carrying water over vast distances,the common toilet with sanitary piping, underfloor heating (central heating), the public baths and saunas (still common in many parts of the world today.)

The Russian Empire has little to offer the developing world today which cannot be offered even by other technologically developing countries such as India,Malaysia and South Africa,   So Russia does not have any head start when competing for global economic, military and political influence in today's world. It's abysmal failure to even retain client states from beyond the era of the colonial struggles - especially in Africa - is indicative of inherent weaknesses within the Russian expansionist models to 'capitalize' on what should have been it's enormous opportunities for expansionism.

Most of Africa,India, Indo-China, Central and South America should today be exemplary models of Russian expansionism.

Other than a paltry smattering – Cuba and Venezuela - with virtually no presence of any significance on the African continent - Russia today consists of the country itself with a loose federation of former Soviet Republics-most of which have absolutely nothing in common with Russia proper-other than being a source of cheap labor, raw materials and a mercantilist trade system – which most would readily abandon if offered a Western alternative.

All of these former(slave) Soviet states are basically dysfunctional- in much the same way as Apartheid in South Africa over two centuries has created a dysfunctional society which will take hundreds of years (or at least 50) to re-orientate.

In the case of South Africa the problems are recognized and even as I write are being worked on. Whereas in the case of the new Russian federation of independent States most (with the exception of The Ukraine) do not even recognize they are dysfunctional societies caused by over a century of Soviet slavery with an inability to see the world beyond Moscow at the center of their universe for sustenance, development and social acceptability.

Many of the Muslim Republics have separatist movements which want to replace Moscow Rule with fundamentalist Islam and whose independence movements grew more out of a desire to break free from subservience to Moscow and Russian values rather than strict adherence to Islam.   Fundamentalist Islamic preachers and scholars were quick to recognize and seize the opportunity to turn what were movements for separation into 'Holy' quests to defeat 'the infidel'.   Imperial,'Holy' and Ultra-Nationalist quests, history has taught, can last for centuries and, like Afghanistan (first, in recent history and excluding the Roman Empire and the quests of Alexander of Macedon, for the British, then the Russians,now the Americans) lead absolutely nowhere-except to the graveyard.

Over 12 years ago I said to a serving Officer in Afghanistan that the (U.S.) withdrawal would be like the Roman Legions quietly leaving Britannia at the dead of night to protect the Empire (Rome) from the Barbarian hordes.  It would be a humiliating withdrawal with little accomplished – not even the inherent security of the United States.

About 6 years ago I repeated the same to J M...z.     Both probably thought I was either crazy or just misguided.   The greatest tragedy for myself is the loss of innocent lives and military personnel for nothing tangible - at least for nothing which could have been accomplished by means other than war.

To this day, historians and academics debate how and why the Roman Empire collapsed.   All have their own theories.

It is the potential for the internal collapse and implosion of the Russian Empire which President Putin (and the world) should be focused on as a matter of critical urgency rather than attempting to commit (for decades,maybe even centuries) military resources in a hopeless quest against Ukrainian ultra-nationalists-who inherited and cultivated their inspiration for racism, ultra-nationalism and separatism, from examples set at the heart of the Empire itself.

Patrick Emek