Coup
d'Etat in Nigeria?
Rumors
are rife that the army in conjunction with corrupt Governors,
Officials and the Business community are planning a military coup to
prevent General Muhammadu Buhari from sweeping to power by popular
democratic choice in this months forthcoming General Election.
Reasons
for The Coup
Should
this happen, do not believe a word of what your mainstream media will
tell you. Plans
are already in place to say that it was because of the chaos caused
by Boko Haram and
the need for a firm military response that the country has been put
under 'temporary' Martial
Law.
The
Real Reasons For The Coup - Should It Take Place
General
Buhari is a widely respected politician. Nigeria's
equivalent of America's Eliot Ness (The G-Men) – Buhari is
incorruptible and the only politician standing in this month's
election untainted by scandal of one sort or another. He is
neither beholden to the Army nor to the business community – both
of which have corruptly benefited enormously under President Goodluck
Jonathan.
Jonathan
himself is not seen as the real objective of the military coup –
why should they oust someone who has not attempted to tackle
corruption?; but more to the fact that it would be seen as a
'popular' move to 'depose' (and I use this word loosely) Jonathan,
blame his administration for the corruption, political chaos and
anarchy created by Boko Haram and send him into exile so that he can
be 'out of the way' of public opprobrium.
The
'G-Man'
Buhari
is very serious in tackling corruption and this is not going down
well amongst the corrupt elite which have, almost without
interruption - except during the Biafra War years and those of
General Buhari as Leader of the Country – rifled Nigeria of
it's wealth (oil and gas) and left it and it's people as a broken and empty shell.
The
gap between wealth and poverty in Nigeria is probably on the same
scale as the disenfranchisement of the African-Brazilian population.
[Over 87% of Brazil's
African-Brazilian population are totally disenfranchised from
political, economic and social prosperity by a form of Apartheid
which makes South Africa under
Apartheid look benevolent in comparison. But Brazil is not the
objective of this blog so you should research this for yourself
elsewhere.]
Military
Coup? What Coup?
The
Generals plotting the coup are mainly Northerners – but they have
cross-party links with the Governors of States outside the North who
will, at least, not speak out against the planned Coup – should it
happen.
There
will be some media-publicized moves to 'tackle corruption' – the
usual window-dressing. [A pig with lipstick is, however, still a pig
with lipstick!)
'Temporary'
Martial Law
Even
President Jonathan 'knows' who the potential 'plotters' are. He
is, however, powerless to act – should they decide to sieze power –
as the loyalty of all Senior Northern commanders is not guaranteed
'in stone' – but only on paper.
Objectives
Of The Plotters
The
objective of a military coup -should it kibosh the General Election -
is simply to prevent Buhari from becoming President. By the
time Martial Law is lifted it is assumed that he willl be 'too old'
and 'too ineffectual' to be a 'viable' Presidential candidate for
selection nor for the Nigerian electorate. President Jonathan
has been so ineffectual that he is not a 'political threat' to anyone
and will 'go quietly'.
Interests
Of The West Are Guaranteed
As
I understand it, there will be no change in Nigeria's policy with
regard to oil and gas – so it's business as usual.
As
I see it, the country could go on a more 'pro-Arab' path.
There has been increasing antiSemitism over the past decade –
fueled in part by hate-mongers and in part by what is perceived as
injustice to the Palestinians – fellow Muslim brothers 'suffering'
under a system which many Nigerians - especially in the Muslim North
- compare with the system of Apartheid in South Africa until it's
visible dismantling (but the psychological scars left will probably
take hundreds of years to eradicate.) This
is not my view but it is one publicly (and privately) shared by the
majority of people in Nigeria – Africa's most populous country -
and the new military leadership will lose no time 'capitalizing''
on this 'popular' sentiment to the fullest. It will also be
another convenient distraction from the more pressing problems –
such as tackling widespread corruption and wealth redistribution to the
disenfranchised who constitute 90% of Nigeria's population.
Nearly
60% of Nigeria's Youth population are without work and without hope
for the future. Any distractions are better than having to tackle
these issues.
Sadly
the vast majority of Nigerians are not educated to understand that by
disenfranchising their own population from education economic and
social development, they are holding back the country's potential to
compete globally – in much the same way that Muslim countries such
as Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia by not empowering women are thus
utilizing only a small fraction of the country's total potential in a
globalized interconnected and interdependent world.
From
the West's Perspective
Should
a military coup take place, it will be a disappointment –
especially in the United Kingdom, the former colonial power, which
genuinely wants to see Nigeria develop and prosper for all it's
citizens but has taken a back seat since the problems of tackling
endemic corruption in the country are such as to make any
vocal foreign statements into local Nigerian domestic politics, however benign, a lost, hopeless
and a thankless cause.
I
have met with former Colonial Officers who served in Nigeria and were
very deeply attached to a country whose people they came to love and
respect. Most are now deceased but it broke their hearts to
see the potential of what could have been a great country and beacon
of development and prosperity for all on the African continent,
squandered.
So
Britain, The United States and Europe will express 'regret' - should
such a scenario unfold. But that is about all that will
happen. Life will continue as it always has for the
impoverished and dispossessed and Nigeria will, yet again, through
ignorance, have missed a golden opportunity to move into a new era of
shared future prosperity and wealth redistribution, with a visionary
leader taking it there, for yet another few decades or even longer.
©Patrick
Emek, March 09,2015
References
