Airbus
A320 Germanwings
Flight From Barcelona to Dusseldorf Crashes In The French Alps:
A
Tragic Accident?
Firstly sincere
condolences to Germanwings and to the families of the victims of this
disaster.
When
tragedy strikes so suddenly it is almost incomprehensible for
relatives and colleagues.
The crash of
Germanwings plane 4U 9525 with the loss of 150 souls - including 6
crew - is yet another air tragedy in Europe which has also come
during a period of severe economic recession and cutbacks by many
companies in Europe to save on time and costs. I will look at one
particular aspect of such cutbacks, with regard to historical
relevance, later on in this blog.
It should be
remembered that the low-cost airlines are subject to the same
rigorous safety checks as the scheduled airlines so in this regard,
there is no difference.
Answers, however, must
be found – and quickly – to re-assure the traveling public in
Europe and beyond.
Suspicious
It is highly
suspicious that maximum (or optimal) cruising altitude had just been achieved when
the plane 'fell' from the sky. This suggests, to me, rapid
depressurization.
If such has been
the case it will be quickly identified by forensic examination of the
remains of the victims prior to and independent of the black box data
being analyzed. Such conclusions can at least be quickly passed on
to other carriers worldwide to ensure awareness of any potential
issues in general.
I want, in this
particular case, to speculate on what could cause such a catastrophe.
The first thing which
comes to mind is a door being opened – or not having been sealed
properly.
Secondly is
depressurization caused by a failure of seals protecting against such
a catastrophe.
Thirdly a failure of
composite materials (structural failure.)
There is the
possibility of a computer failure or 'data reboot'.
There is the
possibility of the deliberate crashing of the plane by the pilot or
co-pilot.
Finally there is the
possibility of terrorism.
I am discounting both
terrorism and pilot suicide for the following reasons:
Lufthansa's reputation
in this regard is second to none.
The last place a
terrorist would want to crash a plane would be in an inaccessibe
region remote from public relations (world media) accessibility.
While we certainly do
not know the circumstances of the pilot nor co-pilot I am also ruling
out pilot error or suicide.
This leave the one
option I am highly suspicious about.
A plane reaching
optimal cruising altitude and immediately falling from the sky
suggests to myself rapid depressurization caused either by a failure
of seals designed to prevent such a thing from happening or,
alternatively, a door not having been closed properly.
The other possibility
is something in the cargo hold – such as pressurized material or
canisters.
There have been cases
in the past where supposedly 'empty' cylinders were in fact not
completely empty or where a change in pressure in sealed environments
caused such or similar items to 'burst' – with a 'force' similar to a
mini-bomb or high speed bullet being released causing a rupture in
the cargo hold area – thereby affecting the structural integrity of
the plane.
[I had thought that
all such issues had long ago been resolved through the strengtening
of such hold areas and also with very strict procedures in place to
prevent such occurrences or indeed in the event of such a
catastrophe, that the damage would be minimized by the procedural packing and placement of
such items.]
Materials
Integrity Failure
There is always the
possibility of composite failure or lack of proper maintenance.
Again I trust European and German technology as I would American or British more
than most others worldwide because of the very rigorous emphasis on safety and procedures - with oversight systems constantly monitored and updated where and when critical issues or potential problems become apparent.
By this I also mean that
the design technology is unlikely to have been the cause of the
disaster.
All the major
indigenous Airlines I can think of – whether in Africa, The Middle
East, Asia, Europe or the Americas have excellent maintenance
and pilot safety records so again the likelihood of pilot error
becomes as highly remote as maintenance failure.
There is, however, the
classic prior accidents scenario whereby 'replacement parts' for
airlines were not to a fit standard or were, through a bizarre chain
of events, not calibrated or fault tested or even failed on the production line but such integrity issues were never picked up through fault analysis so sucvh went on to be then inserted as support or parts into an airline structure, and, after
some period of time, failed – thereby causing the sections they
were supporting to tear apart or break loose.
Lessons
To Be Learnt
The one fact that this
tragedy does again remind us of – and I have said this before –
is the need tio get rid of this archaic 'black box' system and opt
for real time tracking and systems monitoring.
I will not repeat what
I have said before (in earlier blogs at this site) other than to add
that with each tragic loss of life, as happened here, this will
hopefully focus carriers (the airline industry) minds more urgently
on this particular 'upgrade'.
Update at 19:47 March 25, Pacific Daylight Time:
Don't Completely Rule Out Suicide:
There is a News Report that either the pilot or co-pilot found himself locked out of the cockpit.
This itself is confusing for several reasons. The first is because both are trained to fly the plane and unless both found themselves locked out of the cockpit (which would be a horrendous situation apart from a breach of every rule in the book of civil aviation where only the Captain and Co-pilot are in-house) this, in itself, is not a full-scale emergency, unfortunate as it may be. Secondly there is a further report that rapid depressurization was not involved - which rules out failed seals on windows, doors or other catastrophic failures which would cause such to occur.
[This does not rule out other catastrophic failures causing the structural integrity to become unstable.]
Then there are now (if any credibility exists in this recent speculation) other issues to look at such as food poisoning or other unforseen in-flight illness - but even as such by putting the plane on autopilot as it was at optimal cruising height - there should have been more than time to issue a distress call. This in itself is not a full-scale emergency - as distressing as it may be. Again it is difficult to imagine that both the pilot and co-pilot would both have left their posts (or have taken ill) simultaneously for such reasons then to find themselves both locked out of the cockpit whilst being attended to.
It's not inconceivable that someone was taken seriously ill, being attended outside the cockpit and the second, unthinking, went to see how his colleague was coping, both to find themselves unable to get back inside. If this eventually turns out to be the case then a major review of procedures and access will be required.
Suicide - And It's Implications:
All other things considered, should this tragedy turn out to be either the result of human error or intentional murder (a suicide) it still leaves the issue of access procedures and security wide open and would suggest (at least to myself) that more careful thought needs to be applied to cockpit access in an era of terrorism where the balance between safety, accessibility and security all need to be carefully balanced for confidence in air travel to be maintained at the high level it is today.
Therefore, in the light of new information available, I am assuming that as part of the process of thorough investigation, the relevant authorities are looking carefully into the background of both the Captain and Co-pilot to see if there are any relevant motivating factors which could have caused one or the other to behave irrationally or just one or the other, having an exceptionally bad day. It is now accepted that the initial report of the airplane 'falling from the sky' was inaccurate. It apparently descended (under control) and flew, at full speed, right into the French Alps. [So much for routine psychological profiling and spot tests!]
Don't Completely Rule Out Suicide:
There is a News Report that either the pilot or co-pilot found himself locked out of the cockpit.
This itself is confusing for several reasons. The first is because both are trained to fly the plane and unless both found themselves locked out of the cockpit (which would be a horrendous situation apart from a breach of every rule in the book of civil aviation where only the Captain and Co-pilot are in-house) this, in itself, is not a full-scale emergency, unfortunate as it may be. Secondly there is a further report that rapid depressurization was not involved - which rules out failed seals on windows, doors or other catastrophic failures which would cause such to occur.
[This does not rule out other catastrophic failures causing the structural integrity to become unstable.]
Then there are now (if any credibility exists in this recent speculation) other issues to look at such as food poisoning or other unforseen in-flight illness - but even as such by putting the plane on autopilot as it was at optimal cruising height - there should have been more than time to issue a distress call. This in itself is not a full-scale emergency - as distressing as it may be. Again it is difficult to imagine that both the pilot and co-pilot would both have left their posts (or have taken ill) simultaneously for such reasons then to find themselves both locked out of the cockpit whilst being attended to.
It's not inconceivable that someone was taken seriously ill, being attended outside the cockpit and the second, unthinking, went to see how his colleague was coping, both to find themselves unable to get back inside. If this eventually turns out to be the case then a major review of procedures and access will be required.
Suicide - And It's Implications:
All other things considered, should this tragedy turn out to be either the result of human error or intentional murder (a suicide) it still leaves the issue of access procedures and security wide open and would suggest (at least to myself) that more careful thought needs to be applied to cockpit access in an era of terrorism where the balance between safety, accessibility and security all need to be carefully balanced for confidence in air travel to be maintained at the high level it is today.
Therefore, in the light of new information available, I am assuming that as part of the process of thorough investigation, the relevant authorities are looking carefully into the background of both the Captain and Co-pilot to see if there are any relevant motivating factors which could have caused one or the other to behave irrationally or just one or the other, having an exceptionally bad day. It is now accepted that the initial report of the airplane 'falling from the sky' was inaccurate. It apparently descended (under control) and flew, at full speed, right into the French Alps. [So much for routine psychological profiling and spot tests!]
