The Second Wave
[Please note this blog is not a scientifically-based assessment but speculation based on a known pattern of terrorism, extrapolated into an example of how a bioterror attack might 'mimic' one such known pattern.
If you are looking for scientifically-based data please refer to my earlier blogs about bioweapons.
As soon as this current 'event' began to manifest itself, I determined not to 'undermine' the legitimate scientific efforts to tackle this emergency with anything which might be considered simply an attempt to 'capitalise' on a major tragedy.
It does however raise interesting matters for further research.
You already know the science from my previous blogs.
If you have already taken some of your valuable time to read and analyse these, then you know most of the answers;so I am in some respects 'preaching' to the 'converted.']
'The Big Kahuna'
It is for certain that this coronavirus pandemic, while interesting in itself, is not 'The Big Kahuna.'
One of the key patterns in terror attacks is to create as much disruption as it is possible to achieve.
For example, a bomb goes off in a crowded market place.
This is quickly followed by a secondary attack when the emergency services have arrived.
The pattern is obvious:the first suicide 'wave' is the distraction for 'the main event.' With those providing emergency services being the primary targets for the terror attack - and not the primary attack itself.
Speculation - Taking Coronavirus As A Template
There is no practical reason why, a second even more 'lethal' mutation of coronavirus could not be introduced.
Indeed, as with the common cold (but 10 times more lethal) it would be very challenging for most societies to cope with an even more virulent strain of this virus - seeing how badly most societies have managed the first outbreak or wave.
(Look at it like this, Influenza has a 'club' membership of about 200 variations or strains.
Coronavirus might open it's own 'club' - with it's variations or strains each having it's own unique etiology.)
As I said earlier, this current outbreak is, but a grain of sand, for what is to come - if such a bioterror attack ever takes place - with billions dead. I did a calculation of how many at the time of my research analysis and it worked out at 6.85bn or thereabouts at the higher end and 4.85bn at the lower end of the model. The considerable difference or 'spread' were caused by 'mitigating factors.'
To repeat, I am 99.99% certain that this current pandemic is not a bioterror attack.
The Second Wave
So what would this 'second wave' look like?
In the case of a gene-mutated (or genetically bioengineered) terror attack, I want to show you what it would look like - taking this non-terror emanating coronavirus as an example.
The second wave would be specifically targeted to infect those thought to be partially immunized.
Take a simple example. A lock and a key. The bioengineered virus (key) will 'home in' by 'radar' on those with the presumed antibodies ('locks') but in such a way that it will cause added cellular disruptions - perhaps resulting in a breakdown in the body's ability to maintain 'cellular integrity.' The effects could be dramatic - similar to reported cases for Ebola but, by contrast, not easily transmissible.
An objective here would be to cause major disruption - similar to that caused by landmines and mini-projectiles on the battlefield.
The purpose of such is to cause such injuries that battlefield medical units will be unable to cope so great are the casualties.
In the case of a bioterror attack as envisaged, the 'medical units' are relatives and friends who will be able to tend their loved ones -perhaps without themselves becoming secondary victims - at least not initially - such would be how the mutation 'behaves' in secondary transmission between genetically-related and genetically unrelated individuals.
A further variation (mutation) of this same aspect could, conceivably, be highly transmissible.
You can see the obvious pattern.
Any virus which causes such cellular disruption will have it's own unique etiology as demonstrated in the above example.
Failure Is Not An Option
Many years ago I had the privilege to meet Markus Wolf, former Head of the HVA (Main Intelligence Administration) of the Ministry For State Security, East Germany.
This was long after the fall of the Berlin Wall and of Communism.
What I learned, is that success in any operation involves training to the nth degree of perfection.
That the consequences of failure should be so dire that failure is not an option.
With these two tenets (alone) in mind a high degree of 'preparatory' work is required for such a hypothetical terrorist operation.
(I have outlined possible preparatory scenarios in earlier blogs with research data.)
Effects On Societal Behavior
The effect of The Second Wave will temporarily change the pattern of world social (societal) behavior - especially since nobody will have claimed 'responsibility' (for the events for reasons given earlier) so there will be no 'enemy' to go after.
[Every other nation will, however, be the 'potential' enemy.]
Motivation:Look For The Motive
I have no special knowledge nor insight with regard to motive.
It could well be that it is neither spiritual nor political in motivation.
That there is no grievance just a burning 'desire' to 'start again' - and see 'where things go' next time 'round.
In other words, the objective might not be based on hate of any person or group or system just a simple desire for a 'different' 'type' of planet - where all existing structures are no longer in place - with no specific political nor philosophical manifesto.
This is the very 'extreme' - motiveless - bioterror attack.
The one which is most incomprehensible since it is motiveless.
This, however, might have a higher probability of success than it's (more likely) alternative [bioterror] scenarios for future disruption which are quite clearly based on known issues of politics, race, religion and tribe.
If such an event happens as above, it is highly unlikely we would ever know the 'how' nor the 'why' nor even the 'who.'
As I said previously, in such a 'main event' there is no requirement to leave a (traditional) 'calling card' - since 'the manifest' itself, is in the chaos all around.
©Patrick
Emek, March 17, 2020
