Panama In Crisis

In a move over the past few days, which has received little attention from the world media because of the holidays,the President of Panama has unilaterally (and possibly unconstitutionally) reversed the country's long-standing status as a tax haven.   The fact that the status is reversed-and companies registered in Panama must pay tax on all assets generating profit overseas,is not an issue in itself.    (Indeed the U.S. government,more specifically,the firm,has for many decades,utilized the services of Panamanian banks and other registered organizations for the conduct of business outside the territorial jurisdiction of the United States.  This situation has been changing over the past decade to 15 years and Panama no longer provides such services on behalf of U.S. government agencies.)   What appears to be the issue is not the fact that Panama,as from 31st December 2013,is no longer a tax haven,but the unconstitutional way in which President Martinelli,has,without legislative approval,introduced these changes to the Panama taxation code.     (From what I understand,the legislators were away for the Christmas festive holiday when the President,already accused as dictatorial in  style of governance,without accountability nor consultation,changed the tax status.)    Does this matter to anyone but the rich and super rich?  The issue appears to be the fact that there will be a flight of capital out of Panama-which could potentially either destabilize the country or make it vulnerable to heading down the path to becoming a failed state-and the geostrategic implications of this for the entire region-especially for neighboring Colombia,Nicaragua and the highly unstable Guatemala,Honduras and potentially, the British Commonwealth Territory of Belize (an unintended consequence of instability and territorial disputes with neighboring countries which could also, potentially,as fallout consequence,be also on the verges of economic collapse.)    So there is the potential for a dominoes effect throughout the entire region if the Panamanian economy topples overnight.   The only winners in this case will be the drug barons and cartels-who will extend their influence into a flailing Panamanian economy and ultimately create the same crises Colombia has been dealing with for several decades.
Genesis of The Crisis
For some time Panama has been experiencing a huge hidden financial deficit.    The Panamanian press on the other hand have portrayed Panama as a central American 'Tiger' economy.    To a great extent Panama has been a miracle growth economy and the gap between  wealth and poverty has lessened over the past two decades.   This is also, in part,however,the same fallacy which bedeviled the Irish 'Celtic' Tiger economy-fueled as it was by excessive borrowing based on unrealistic property and financial services-related inflated-led growth and not on 'real' (capital goods) export-led growth.    In the case of the Panamanian economy a similar credit boom has inflated the economy-which is now on the verge of collapse.   The President has been accused of all kinds of illegal and criminal activities-by his political enemies of course.  This over-simplifies a very complicated situation-which the President's appointed financial advisors in part created through fiscal mismanagement but which is more in part due to the bad hand he was dealt when he assumed Office.   (Remind you of  someone you know in Washington?)
Standing By Friends In Times of Crises
Panama has been a stalworth ally of the U.S. through many crises and has acted as an honest  broker in other difficult circumstances.   The economy is potentially on the brink of collapse.   What I am about to say is entirely speculative.   I believe that President Martinelli was briefed during the course of the year 2013 by close advisers that the country would run into default sometime in 2014 if drastic steps were not taken to address the huge gap between taxation income and Government expenditure.   With a hostile and bellicose legislature the President was left with few options.    He could either be called a dictator (which,as soon as the world gets wind of this he most certainly will be) or his re-election prospects could go down the toilet with the economy.   In short, I believe he was snookered.    It's true that the Government of Panama is overspending-but so was the U.S. as were most European governments-especially France-which is also on the verge of economic collapse-and has just introduced a 75% rate of taxation on high net worth individuals in an attempt to stave off bankruptcy of the French economy.   (There is a joke in Europe that if the Germans (German capital-heavy industry) ever stop working,the Euro and the EU will collapse overnight!)    The only countries in Europe which are financially stable are Great Britain,Germany, Switzerland,Austria,Liechtenstein,Andorra,Monaco,Sweden and Norway and of those, the one to which most of the world (Christian and non-Christian) is flocking to invest for reasons of political religious and social stability and a business-friendly proactive environment (similar to Panama in terms of Government incentives to foreign investors) is Great Britain.  In the Americas, investors worldwide are likewise flocking to the United States-not because of the recession but because of political stability and the cost of entry investment is at a historically ridiculously low level not seen since the 1929 depression.
Panamanian economic growth,has,unlike the Republic of Ireland,been private sector-growth-led, together with investment from the Government.   Foreign sector investment however has not been enough in the present world financial crises to sustain it's GDP level-which was  surpassing most other countries in the region by between 4.8%-7.00% over the past decade-with a considerable narrowing of the debt to GDP ratio.    In addition to this,for some time,Panama has not been viewed as the taxation haven it used to be-so revenues for company registration,administration and returns (which have been some of the highest in the world) have also been steadily drying up.
The Rocky Road Ahead
Panama is still one of the safest (from a personal safety viewpoint) countries in Central America.
From an investment viewpoint I have never heard any negative comments only positive ones with regard to the ease of doing business without fear of organized crime rackets-which exists in many Central American countries (similar to those operating in Moscow,Russia.)   I cannot say the same of Guatemala,Mexico and Colombia where you are, in addition, most certainly unsafe walking the capitol city at night-and I am talking about the so-called 'safe' areas.)   From a business viewpoint,it has had a reputation for being proactively business-friendly.   When government resumes after the Christmas break (shortly) there will be uproar (if not pandemonium) in Panama City and legislators en masse will be demanding President Martinelli's resignation.    Before you join the frenzied mainstream media-driven chorus,get all the facts you can.
Panama is in crisis but you know what, I can think of few parts of the world at present which are not.  
If I can rework a phrase I've heard in another context,it's not the crisis which counts,it's the way you handle it.


Patrick Emek
January 2014



Crisis? What Crisis?
Latest Update (as at 6th January 2013):
Cabinet Approves Bill To Revoke Law 120 of 2013

''The Cabinet Council revokes law establishing taxable income outside Panamanian territory:Panama Administration will continue local-source taxation.  The Panama Administration accepted its mistake in trying to impose worldwide taxation instead of the local-source taxation system in place under Article 694 of the Tax Code of 1957.''

''The Panama Cabinet approved a bill to revoke Law 120 of 2013 which had eliminated tax benefits to Panama companies and individuals performing transactions which take affect outside of the country.''

[in an Extraordinary Cabinet Session (held on 2nd January 2014) article 694 of the Tax Code is completely reestablished stating that: “it is object of this tax the taxable income produced, in any way, inside the territory of the Republic of Panama, regardless of the place received”] [The project will be presented on Monday, January 6th when the National Assembly retakes their regular period of sessions.] 

 ''The President Ricardo Martinelli blamed current Revenue Authority (ANIP) administrator Luis Cucalon for the passage of Law 120 of 2013, while Vice-Minister Luis E. Camacho assumed responsibility and current Minister of Economy Frank De Lima (author of restrictions to bearer shares on behalf of the OECD) said more consultations were necessary.   The fact remains that several dozen legislators of the government Cambio Democratico party approved the law in its 3rd reading and failed to predict the onslaught of public opinion opposing this change to the Tax Code. '' 

 http://mypanamalawyer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/panama-administration-will-continue.html

http://mypanamalawyer.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/panama-cabinet-votes-to-revoke-law-120.html
Earlier references (as at 31st December 2013-1st January2014):
PDF]
http://www.gacetaoficial.gob.pa/pdfTemp/27443_A/44901.pdf
http://www.presidencia.gob.pa/5183-Articulos-2-y-3-de-Ley-120-seran-derogados
(English translation available at the Presidential Website) 
Disrupting Drug Trafficking Networks – Progress in 2013 by: Michael Swanson
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/Disrupting--Drug-Trafficking-Networks-.aspx

Passing Thoughts At the End  of  2013

Brazil Cancels Purchase of U.S. Military Hardware in Favor of Swedish Jet Fighters

In Protest Against NSA Spying

My only comment is that America should hold it's head high and rejoice knowing that it has not been chosen by the worlds foremost Apartheid regime to supply it with military hardware.

As with Nazi Germany, history will vindicate the U.S. when the 87% majority of it's disenfranchised African-Brazilian population win their freedom after decades (maybe centuries) of struggle against their oppressors and Brazil then takes its place amongst the club of civilized nations in the world.

''US, British media are servants of security apparatus'' 

 Glen Greenwald (former Journalist with The Guardian Newspaper,Great Britain, and first publicist of Edward Snowden's NSA classified material)

 published at Russia Today's website:http://rt.com/news/greenwald-snowden-nsa-hackers-conference-889/comments/page-5/

My only comment is.......very rich......coming from one who has now, subsequent to his resignation from The Guardian...sought residence in the world's foremost Apartheid regime, Brazil.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un

(Residing on a Planet Close To Earth)

Dennis Rodman in North Korea:

''Despicable Human Scum...worse than a dog!''

No it's not a continuation of my previous article but what the North Korea media is saying about Leader Kim's uncle and mentor-who he has just had executed.
It's extremely rare that I will ever say that someone is quite clearly on the wrong side of history.
It is with this in mind that I say I am 100 billion per cent certain that Dennis Rodman is definitely on the wrong side of history.

Only someone with not one iota of a brain could count the Dear Leader amongst their personal friends on this planet. (The Dear Leader's uncle,Jang Song Thaek, was even closer-and look what happened to him!)

Muhammad Ali (born Cassius Marcellus Clay, Jr.; January 17, 1942)

From what I hear, Muhammad Ali is not at all in the best of health.

I wish him Seasons Greetings and thank him for showing the world the peaceful non-violent side of Islam-before it was hijacked.  He provided a wonderful inspiration to me about the dignity of saying 'no', even when all of the world is laid before your feet, if only you will bow down and worship that which you know to be wrong. There must be many families in (then) North Vietnam who can be thankful to him and the many others (including William Jefferson Clinton) who followed in his path and who never fired a shot in anger nor shared one iota of responsibility for the deaths of any of their loved ones during the era of the U.S.- Vietnam War.

                                                

                       Colombia:Smart Bombs,GPS Tracking  & Location Intelligence   

Little discussed is how the NSA, over the past decade, assisted the Government of Colombia in the creation of a national computer and satellite intelligence center, instrumental in it's fight against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and The National Liberation Army. The project began in earnest after a Cessna with CIA Officers on board went down with engine failure in the Colombian jungle in 2003. The Colombian Officer on board was executed and others taken hostage.  It's only a matter of time however before all this technology is used to target world leaders at home in the United States and abroad-particularly in countries which have never thought themselves vulnerable to such an attack.  Thus is the nature of asymmetric warfare. So before our allies throw out the NSA they might prudently seek to identify an alternative provider in the event of such a national emergency.

Presidential Pardon For Edward Snowden & Chelsea Manning

I am still of the view that, as with Chelsea Manning, Snowden took an oath to keep confidential the secrets of his country. What message would a Presidential Pardon send to the enemies of the U.S. who are, at present, rubbing their hands with glee as they see America reel on the ropes of world humiliation whilst their own totalitarian spy networks bask in their sunshine of perpetual darkness?

Julian Assange

My views on Julian Assange have, likewise, not changed:
I believed at the time that his incarceration at the Ecuadorian Embassy in The United Kingdom was unjust,that he should be immediately released and offered safe passage to a country of his choosing.   I said this at the time publicly and I stand by it today.  He is a journalist.  His profession is to shed light into darkness.  If material becomes available his first recourse,as a journalist of integrity, is to decide whether he believes it's release is in the public interest, regardless of where it has been obtained from.   He never signed a confidentiality or secrets act so he is not subject to their provisions.  Legal steps can be taken within the law both to prevent publication and retrieve the stolen documents.   You may disagree with him, but he is just doing his job.

Patrick Emek, December 2013


Some of the most memorable images of Muhammad Ali can be found at the website
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=how+old+is+muhammad+ali+2013&client=firefox-a&sa=X&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=np&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&ei=oEK2UoLuLtHxhQfJyICACA&ved=0CEgQsAQ&biw=1024&bih=601

http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Asymmetric_warfare.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/investigative/2013/12/21/covert-action-in-colombia/?wpisrc=al_national

http://realhistoryarchives.blogspot.co.uk/?expref=next-blog

http://millercenter.org/president/clinton
http://millercenter.org/president/clinton/essays/biography/print 

Could Arrest of Indian Diplomat Sink Preet Bharara?

American Hubris v  Indian  Deputy Counsel General Devyani Khobragade

[January 10, 2014-State Department Orders Deportation of Devyani Khobragade -see latest paragraph at the end of this story]


(A recent half-hearted, condescending and grudging ''expression of regret'' by The State Department appears to have come far too late and will not undo the enormous damage to U.S. political and economic interests-which could amount to hundreds of millions of dollars-if not more.
A report suggests that Deputy Counsel General Khobragade could well be *'fast-tracked' to become India's Ambassador to the United Nations-what would be regarded as the ultimate reverse humiliation for the U.S., in the eyes of most Indian citizens on the sub-Continent.)

 The Vienna Convention

An appalling breach of the Vienna Convention recently took place in the United States.
Indian Deputy Counsel General Devyani Khobragade was arrested and handcuffed
at her child's school and taken into custody.
Deputy Counsel General Khobragade was both humiliated and personally violated by U.S. Federal Officers-tantamount to rape-a criminal offence under U.S. law.
From what  US Attorney, Preet Bahararahas recently said, the treatment the Deputy Counsel got was better than that afforded to American citizens when they are taken into Police custody.
To be quite frank, even if the charge was economic or military espionage or political conspiracies, the Vienna Convention concerning diplomatic immunity is very precise. I have chosen extreme cases to illustrate a point. In such a case the host country must, as in any other case considered serious enough, request of the guest Diplomat's country that it lift Diplomatic Immunity. If it refuses the only option left is not to arrest but to expel the Diplomat or Diplomats. In such serious cases as I mention a formal request would be subsequently made, after the accused Diplomats returned home, that he or she be extradited back (to the host country) to face criminal charges. It is then up to the guest country to strip the Diplomat of immunity so that this process can now begin in criminal courts of law with respect to national criminal and international law.
The Charges (See A Summary in Epilog below)
It is for this reason that I will not even care to look at the ridiculous allegations or charges
against the Deputy Counsel General-as all of the media have already sheep-like followed in their ignorance that it is even a case for jurisprudence by a court of law in the United States.
The minor matter (and it is a very minor issue by degree of breach of the Vienna Convention,
and, what is more,by a diplomat from a 'friendly' country) has been blown out of all proportion to illustrate the exercise of power rather than the commonsense of logic based on protocol.
I have long suspected, in my encounters with State Department officials, that, as with politics,positions are increasingly being staffed by diplomats, to put it politely, lacking in knowledge and who owe their jobs to political pull rather than to merit based on individual abilities,qualifications and intelligence. Let me just be clear here, these type of appointments are not a problem in themselves but when America then lectures India or any other country on the virtues of transparency and equality of opportunity then at some point foreign media will start to shine the light on the contradictions (or hypocrisies) of U.S. power and privilege and it is this which causes untold economic and political damage to U.S. interests worldwide. They all come from a School of thought which says that only American law, values and culture should prevail worldwide - from views on family conduct and values such as abortion, marriage,Gay rights, to political outlook on the world. They all come from a School which appears to think that doing business with the U.S. is implicit of a country's acceptance and subservience to America and American values in their entirety. I have noted over the decades that most of these individuals have little or no real respect for other cultures and traditions. Unlike their British counterparts, they spend little time trying to understand the complexities of local (foreign) societies and, as with fast food, take a fast track approach to trade and aid.
There is a belief in intellectual circles abroad that you cannot explain to an American, a Russian or Chinese why their thinking or rationale is illogical or flawed or out of step. Why should they accept your criticisms when their path has caused them to become superpowers-and yours is just another minor country in the world?

Imperial Hubris
So if I can now look at this whole sad and unfortunate matter from another perspective, American,Russian or Chinese hubris is simply the reflection of ultimate power destined to happen to all superpowers in all ages.
Let's face it, today, a superpower's ability to influence events is based on military,economic political, religious and cultural dominance.
Nobody will in their right mind will universally voluntarily accept Saudi Arabia's way of life as a model for human progress. Likewise Russia and China ultimately fail the test for similar ethnocentric reasons, which they cannot shake off.
The danger is that if America exercises no restraint on the power it wields in favor of commonsense and intelligent long-term planning based on respect of, what it regards as minor cultures and values (in comparison with those it espouses dearly) then, by default, it will lose credibility as a world leader.

The Charges

The case against the Deputy Counsel General hinges on an unreasonable and unrealistic undertaking given to the US Embassy in Delhi with regard to wages to be paid to a non-diplomatic (domestic) employee. The actual amount paid by the Deputy Counsel General Khobragade to her domestic employee was $3.31 per hour-which is double what most Indian domestic workers earn in a day-because of the differences in wages/salaries between the U.S. and India.   As one who has traveled widely throughout India, $3.31 is more than a fair and reasonable wage for a live-in domestic worker-indeed it is more than many U.S. multinationals pay their workers in different parts of the world-where they have to pay realistic wages based on local conditions rather than what they would pay to employees back home in the US.   It should also be borne in mind that Embassy and Consular Staff are paid local (Indian) rates of pay when posted overseas-which are topped up to ensure that they themselves are not exploited nor vulnerable to exploitation nor compromise whilst working at their posts abroad.

The case was brought by an Indian domestic employee (who for legal reasons cannot be named) who is seeking permanent residence in the US and who effectively exploited the goodwill of the Deputy Counsel General to achieve this objective.  Comparisons between this case are now been made with the horrific treatment meted out by Saudi diplomats (enslavement,beatings and torture of their domestics) to attempt to justify,what was clearly breach of diplomatic protocols, by Federal Officers when they arrested, strip searched and violated a Diplomat of the Government of India.
''India now appears set to carry out further retaliation in relation to salaries paid to Indian servants by American diplomats in India. Most domestic servants in New Delhi, including those employed by the staff of various embassies, are paid around 12,000 Rupees ($200 or £120) a month – considerably lower than than the $500 or £306 paid to Dr Khobragade’s housekeeper. '' (The British Telegraph 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/10522943/Indian-leaders-snub-American-Congressmen-as-row-over-public-arrest-of-a-senior-diplomat-grows.html)

The Cost To America (See the billion dollar issues below)
Most Americans are oblivious to the enormous potential financial damage which this event is likely to cause as 1.3bn Indians see this arrest as an insult to their nation. 


How costly could the Khobragade Incident be For The U.S.?
The Billion Dollar Issues:
*Nuclear Technology Deals
*Bilateral Trade
*U.S. Investment in the growing Indian Economy
(India prefers US investors to arrgoant Russians-who abuse
continually all courtesies afforded by very hospitable and facilitatory
local (State) Indian administrations)
*Indian Kashmir-U.S. has been regarded as a potential honest broker
*The War on Terrorism-Intelligence Cooperation
*Civilian Technology Exchange (non-Nuclear)
*Purchase of  Military Hardware and Software
*Satellite Technology  purchase Agreements
 The general mood in India suggests that these issues-which should have absolutely no bearing on the diplomatic incident-will, in effect, be linked.
The worst thing the State Department can now do is to  dictate to India what or what no to link to this incident. 

(One recent report cites that the issue could setback U.S.-India relations to the tune of up to $100bn-so that US Attroney Preet Bharara can reflect on the true cost of the statement which he so unfortunately made on Wednesday, without  White House
involvement nor requested advice on direction.)

Epilog
Unfortunately there has now been a terrible epilog to this incident, a statement by US Attroney Preet Bharara, which will generate even more fury in India-just at a time when it would have been expected that measured, sensible and mature State Department releases would be moving to diffuse the situation rather than inflame it.

Private (Internal Cavity) Body Searches of Accredited Foreign Diplomats by NYPD and U.S. Federal Officers Are OK-Says U.S. State Attorney, Preet Bharara

US Attorney,Preet Bharara said that the entire treatment (which would include the private internal areas personal body search) of  Indian Deputy Counsel General Devyani Khobragade was more respectful than any other American citizen could expect to receive. 
A spokeswoman for the US Marshals Service said that '' under the agency's regulations governing prisoner searches, a strip search can include a "visual inspection" of body cavities, including the nose, mouth, genitals and anus'' .
This confirms the Deputy Counsel General account and negates that of the Washington Post that the search was 'respectful'. I really don't know what has happened to the State Department in the past decade - but someone with authority needs to get a grip on the handle and demonstrate that intelligent life still exists there. Someone-perhaps-who has been a senior diplomat-needs to take Preet aside sit down with him and explain as to why it is not now and never ever OK for U.S. (or authorities anywhere else in the world) to search nor internal body search accredited diplomats sent to the United States or posted to the United Nations (or anywhere else for that matter.)

Rudderless Ship?
However nobody in the Oval Office appears to have a grip on the handle and each arm of the Government appears to say and do as it pleases-with no central control-at least under President Obama.   There is no one identified individual in the White House who can pick the phone,twist arms up and order that something be done (sic. that this is the way the President wants things to be done) or fire the Federal Officer if it does not get done exactly how he wants it to happen.
U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara will not check with the White House to get the green light before he makes a statement no matter how damaging the implications of what he says could potentially be to US interests overseas.   As far as he is concerned, he does not care about such matters as they are outside his jurisdiction and remit. Looking at the matter from U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara' perspective he is entirely correct-but what seems to fly out the window is good old fashioned tact,commonsense, wisdom, the art of compromise and diplomacy.
If everyone was to take officious, high-handed no compromise attitudes, no business would ever get done (indeed little business ever does get done on Capitol Hill these days-perhaps for this very reason.)
And where is President Obama?  Well he is one President who does not take a 'hands on' so unless the matter spirals out of proportion (which it very well could, knowing how incensed hundreds of millions are in India itself) he will stay as far out of the matter as it is possible to be.
But it goes far beyond that. This is happening at a time when, after decades of suspicion about the U.S. and it's motives, India has been moving closer to significant economic and developmental agreements with the United States on matters as diverse as nuclear technology and bilateral trade. American hubris could ruin this for decades to come. Indian nationalist politicians have quickly seized on this to stoke the flames of nationalism with the call to their faithful of 'we told you so' 'this is the real face of America' 'this is what we are inviting into our 8 thousand year-old culture... you see what happened in Iraq and everywhere else America has traveled in the Middle East and non-European countries...beware my fellow countrymen and women...beware!' This is a universal summary of the message hundreds of millions of Indian citizens (perhaps as many as 700 million) are getting from their opportunist nationalist politicians and as they receive it, be in no doubt it will translate itself into political votes - against the interests of the United States in forthcoming local, regional and national elections-as Indian voters are more 'in awe' of their 'superstar' politicians (until they fall from Grace!) than their Western counterparts. Don't misunderstand me, if this diplomatic incident happened at home in India, in a political context, and was found out, it would have caused a major scandal and the public figure involved would probably have had to resign from political office. But it has happened to an Indian Diplomat in a foreign country long regarded by many Indians with great suspicion-as to it's long-term imperial ambitions for the sub-Continent, Indian Kashmir, Pakistan,Afghanistan and the region as a whole.   [The lasting legacy of the British Empire in the India Sub-Continent is the largest democracy the planet has ever known, with all it's imperfections!]

U.S. Attroney Preet Bharara:
''Her [Indian Deputy Counsel General Devyani Khobragade] [full] diplomatic immunity will only start after confirmation to The United Nations''..............''We intend prosecution....and she [Indian Deputy Counsel General Devyani Khobragade] could face up to 5 years in jail''

So none of the above,I doubt not, will make very pleasant reading for you and you are probably wondering why I should even rant and rave about a minor official from a minor world player being frog-marched, carted off in the Paddy Wagon and thrown unceremoniously in a criminal jail cell, to rot if need be. Well, a long time ago in an obscure part of Europe (Sarajevo) a well-connected Arch Duke (Ferdinand) and Heir to The Austro-Hungarian Empire and his wife Princess Sophie, were assassinated. It is widely accepted by historians that this minor event in a God-forsaken land led to the Great War-and untold misery and loss of life for millions of souls, the unjust 'settlement' imposed by the victors of this War ultimately leading, in part, to the Second World War. So the effects of minor events happening in distant lands today can greatly impact our way of life tomorrow.


Epilog II

The State Department, at the insistence of U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, has (presumably with the full knowledge and agreement of the Government of India) approved that the entire family of Sangeeta Richard, the housekeeper at the center of the underpayment allegations, be flown out of India to a new life in the United States.  They are now already in the United States under Federal protection. (With the intent, I presume, of offering re-location, at a later stage, under the Federal Witness Protection Program.)   This highly unusual action on behalf of The U.S. Attorney's Office of The Southern District of New York, will only serve to raise even more questions than it answers.

(My conclusion is that this is now more about salvaging State Attorney Preet Bharara's sinking career than it is about Deputy Consul General Devyani Khobragade-and statements to the effect that Attorney Bharara is only protecting his 'witness' and her family from intimidation verge on the edge of extreme hypocrisy and something far more serious-for which State officials have more than been dismissed from high office where such incidents have occurred.)


January 10, 2014:
Devyani Khobragade Deported-But With Threat  of Criminal Prosecutions 'In Absentia' From State Attorney Bharara  Overhanging  Her Future

In a move which will either diffuse or incense the situation Devyani Khobragade was, after being unlawfully strip-searched, humiliatingly deported-with threats of criminal prosecutions-and further requests for the lifting of her diplomatic status through the Indian Courts being made by State Attorney Preet Bharara.
Putting aside the heated debate, the U.S. is signaling that should Devyani Khobragade ever again set foot inside U.S. territory she will face arrest and rendition to the U.S. (proper) on criminal charges.
My own view is that this whole incident continues to be handled appallingly, showing a total lack of diplomatic tact, commonsense and an immature high-handedness which will cause long-term damage to the status of  U.S. diplomatic personnel based on the Indian sub-continent for a very very long time.
Every time Attorney Bharara speaks he further incenses an already delicate situation by making future threats against this Indian diplomat.   Apparently there is nobody left in Washington with the authority to diffuse  situations like this one.   I am often left with the impression that everyone there spends too much time shouting and lecturing their own positions rather than listening and acting in the better interests of the country.
If there is anything 'positive' (and I say that pejoratively) to be gained, it will be by ultra-nationalist parties in the forthcoming Indian general elections.  Expect them to sweep the board and ride to power on a crest of an anti-U.S. sentiment sweeping this country of 1.237bn people-courtesy of Attorney Bharara.
They should be very thankful to Attorney Bharara for giving them this (projected) victory on a silver platter.
 Their chances of assuming significant gains in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha (Houses of Parliament) were very slim-until this external issue arose.

[So many indiscretions by U.S. diplomats and personnel are overlooked by Indian authorities I will not even start to mention them only to say that most would result,at the very very least, in humiliating recalls, if ever publicly noted.  All such privileges for U.S. diplomats and U.S. citizens in India are now, at an end,all thanks to hubris.]
( update at January 10. 2014)

15th January 2014:
Approximately one hour ago,WST, [2014 10:00 IST] Indian authorities,through New Delhi TV, released one of the many indiscretions U.S. diplomats have made, which I refrained to refer to so as not to inflame an already delicate situation but which were publicly available through open sources to anybody caring to search.
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/expelled-us-diplomat-wife-made-offensive-remarks-about-india-471102?curl=1389763652
Such comments are sadly not untypical but are not reflective of educated and well-traveled U.S. citizens-who are unfortunately rarely chosen for such postings-as their experience makes them 'suspect' (suspect to being too partial towards their host country) on the grounds of having 'gone too much native' (sic. by virtue of their widely traveled and open-minded experience of the global world.) I can say this having spoken with many knowledgeable individuals who have indeed confirmed such matters to me in private conversations.

(update at 15th January 2014)



Patrick Emek, December 2013

This article has been updated between the day of original publication and 27th December to both correct typographical errors and give as accurate an appraisal as can be identified from State Department comments
and those of individual Officers of the State.  All statements paraphrased are based on actual comments made and an attempt has been made to extrapolate each on the basis of non-U.S. perception of interpretation.


 errata:Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Immunity-typographical error-corrected and updated on 20th December.


*Already accredited UN Diplomat since September 2013

An interesting article posted by 'Kumar' sets out a case which the U.S. Government is 
currently taking against the Deputy Counsel General Khobragade and the reasons for
it's interpretation of the Vienna Convention can be found at:
http://kumar-theloneranger.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/devyani-khobragade-case-consular.html

 note:this article by 'Kumar' sets out an interpretation of the Vienna Convention which clarifies the U.S. State Department's position on this matter.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9535921/Row-over-diplomats-strip-search 
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/articles/531327/20131220/devyani-khorbagode-preet-bharara-sangeeta-richard-prosecute.htm?cid=5 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2527914/Uttam-Khobragade-Indian-slave-wage-maid-Sangeeta-Richard-CIA-agent-claims-Devyani-Khobragade-father-row-continues.html

Khobragade Arrest vs Russian Diplomats' Medicaid Fraud: Would Devyani be Arrested if She was Russian? http://www.ibtimes.co.in/articles/531710/20131224/devyani-kobragade-arrest-russian-diplomats-madicaid-fraud.htm

Could Arrest of Indian Diplomat Sink Preet Bharara?  

http://garyweiss.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/could-arrest-of-indian-diplomat-sink.html

Husain Haqqani, the former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States cautions American Law Enforcers: ''US law enforcers should be mindful of global realities''

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-asia/us-law-enforcers-should-be-mindful-of-global-realities-haqqani/article5482777.ece?ref=relatedNews 

http://qz.com/165510/will-devyani-khobragades-departure-from-the-us-signal-the-end-of-us-india-tensions/

The title of my article is re-worked from a book I read some time ago called 'Imperial Hubris,Why the West Is Losing the War On Terror'  [by Anonymous] 
**Michael Scheuer** published by Potomac Books Inc, Dulles,Virginia,2004

The Dark Side of Brazil

Why Brazil Is A Disastrous Choice For The World Cup

Brazil-Living In The Past

I have mentioned Apartheid Brazil in a previous article-none of which you will ever find discussed on CNN, Fox nor any of the mainstream media, and how this country has been on the verge of racial warfare on a scale worse than that ever predicted (and which never happened) for South Africa.

Let me be clear for the record, South Africa is moving fast forward whereas Brazil

is stuck in a racial time warp-which will soon tear this racially fragmented and segregated country apart at it's very foundations.

Football violence is encouraged by the authorities and economically privileged White minority elite as a distraction from the deep underlying divisions in Brazilian society. This will not work forever-and soon the only recourse will be an even more brutalized suppression of the underclasses-the non-White majority (numbering at the last official census-before Gerrymandering abolished racial profiling on the grounds that racism no longer existed in Brazil-some 75% of the population of the whole country.) The World cup, FIFA, already knows, will result in many deaths but, for so long as an intensified police and para-military presence can confine the killings to 'locals' and protect foreign visitors then there are acceptable casualty numbers within a margin. To put it bluntly, the deaths of scores (if not considerably more) of locals (native Brazilians), should it unfortunately occur, as predicted, is unlikely to reach the mainstream media but the death of a single World Cup tourist will make world headlines-hence the priority will be to protect visiting tourists from abroad.

Let's be clear about this. We are talking about a country where ''35,000 disappearances reported since 2007 go uninvestigated and the culprits unpunished.''<sup>1

The Statistics</sup>

^{''Police abuse, including extrajudicial execution, is also a chronic problem. According to official data, Police were responsible for 372 killings in the state of Rio de Janeiro and 252 killings in the state of São Paulo in the first six months of 2011. Police often claim these are "resistance" killings that occur in confrontations with criminals. While many police killings undoubtedly result from legitimate use of force by police officers, many others do not, a fact documented by Human Rights Watch and other groups and recognized by Brazilian criminal justice officials. ''2}

Be in no doubt about what I am saying here:

Brazil, because of widespread economic injustice and mass disenfranchisement as a whole, is a very violent society. The Police react to this violence with more violence-which sparks revenge killings of the Police, family members and friends, and then even more violence and extra-judicial killings by the police-and the spiral of violence gets worse as both lawless (and no-so-lawless,organized) gangs and the authorities desperately struggle for control of 'no-go' areas-off limits to any but heavily armed police and paramilitary assault teams specially flown or brought in from out-of town-to 'retake' the Favelas in the name of the State.

Why don't you read about this Brazil in the mainstream U.S. And European media? Partly because the Brazilian authorities go to desperate lengths to prevent foreigners getting access to the truth. The segregated nature of the society means that Brazilian tourist minders can shield visiting overseas guests.   Partly also because of a conspiracy of silence by 'embedded' foreign media outlets operating from inside Brazil and anxious not to upset commercial overseas interests who think they are benefiting from this division.  If they had a modicum of commonsense, they would realize that, long term, the opposite is, at the very least, the case. 
Fatherland-The Real Face of Brazil

Do any of you recall the film 'Fatherland' starring Rutger Hauer, based in a fictitious Nazi Germany in April 1964? You may have some trouble finding it listed and getting hold of a copy.  However the point I want to make is that the careful chaperoning of foreign (U.S. and European) guests visiting the country by the tourist guides, specially selected, is reminiscent of the tourist guide on the bus at the start of the film.  This is what happens with each carefully cocooned new European tourist-to ensure that only the pleasant life in Brazil is experienced and in the hope that they will 'spread the good word' [for trade, investment and emigration] when returning to their home country. With South Africa under Apartheid, at least you knew what to expect.  With Brazil, propaganda and technologies of societal control have been re-defined and upgraded to leave the average tourist oblivious.
The Ethics of FIFA and The Beautiful Game

But is this ethically acceptable in the name of FIFA economic long-term objectives?; none of which will ever benefit impoverished Brazilians?;other than perhaps the street vendor selling Brazilian flags or footballs?(He is a street vendor because Brazil banks (all of them) do not lend capital to their impoverished 75% majority to start-up businesses.)  Yes I have no doubt that the Brazilian authorities will do their utmost to shield their foreign (mainly White European) guests from the realities of everyday Brazilian life for the majority of it's impoverished and racially segregated citizens (who compose at least 75% of Brazil's total population.)

But the question still remains as to whether it is acceptable for FIFA to throw money at countries it knows will little benefit mainstream (in this case impoverished) society as a whole?

I will not even mention in detail the demolition of whole communities throughout the country to make way for the World Cup.^{3,4,5,6,8
The World Cup has been used as the pretext to drive tens of thousands of slum dwellers out of their homes in Rio de Janeiro.} 
Are such acceptable prices to pay today (in the 21^st Century) so that we can all enjoy the game of football?
Benefit Concert-For The Poor

When the Circus leaves town the only people celebrating will not be the shattered communities and shattered lives of the powerless citizens but wealthy minorities,

having  already sealed the World Cup  re-development deals with partners at home and overseas for business, housing and sporting complexes,benefiting the rich and super rich -'the folks who live on the hill'-all again protected by armed security,para-military security and prison bars surrounding their ivory towers, from the starving masses living on 'the other side of the tracks';and all courtesy of FIFA.

 The World Cup Spirit-Is Not What You Drink⁷

So when you arrive in sunny Brazil, spare one single thought for the hidden country you will never see nor experience (and believe me, I strongly advise you not to venture into Favelas, just for the sake of experience!) Don't believe the propaganda that the impoverished are lazy and just would not want to run a business, and, by the way, before you depart for home, do remember that street vendor and his family you saw on a corner whose only experience of the World Cup will be the football or trinkets he or she has sold to you-all having been supplied at an inflationary cost-to ensure their eternal impoverishment.

Patrick Emek

¹ http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/03/brazil-rio-police-charged-death-missing-man

² http://www.hrw.org/world-report-2012/world-report-2012-Brazil

³ http://www.panoramas.pitt.edu/content/maracana-community-resists-eviction-world-cup-brazil

⁴ http://www.graemegreen.org/Features/tabid/65/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/184/A-Kick-In-The-Favelas.aspx

⁵ https://nacla.org/sites/default/files/8-Barron.pdf

⁶ http://catcomm.org/category/cover/
^{7  ideal for sub-heading re-arranged from a line in  'Another Christmas Song' lyrics  by Jethro Tull  on the album            'Living In the Past' (1972)}
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdalBvgNAxI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VjPPuias1k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=928GexPP0Mg
^{8  http://www.gulf-times.com/us-latin%20america/182/details/373914/rio-accused-of-%E2%80%98social-cleansing%E2%80%99-of-slum-dwellers}

'''The Beautiful Game''
<sup>Let me apologize for not giving credit to the originator of the phrase' The Beautiful Game'.
 I have heard it spoken many times in my lifetime but failed to check it's origin-and mentioned it as a sub-heading when writing this article.  It is not precisely known when this phrase was first used but the person who gave it it's eternal prominence was the legendary Brazilian soccer master, Pelé:
''In 1977 the famous footballer Pelé named his autobiography 'My Life and the Beautiful Game'. The book's dedication reads "I dedicate this book to all the people who have made this great game the Beautiful Game."[7] The phrase has now entered the language as a colorful description for football and as such was used as part of the title for the 13-part series charting the history of the game: History of Football: The Beautiful Game.'' (WIKIPEDIA)

Patrick Emek,December 2013</sup>

On The Death Of Nelson Mandela, Former President of South Africa

 ''The most potent weapon in the hands of the 

     oppressor

is the mind of the oppressed ''(Steve Biko)

It's always difficult to know how to talk about a legend, someone I never had the opportunity to personally meet and,like many others,have only experienced through the pages of time and history.

What I was struck by was the enormous coverage of this momentous event in the West and it's virtual non-existence on, say, Russia Today television network. Russia Today is a TV network part-funded by the Russian government- in much the same way as the BBC, PBS and Voice of America television networks are by their respective governments. The difference,to explain to any Eastern European reader, who might be slightly perplexed by such massive media coverage of the death of a man-and a Black man at that, is that our own pluralistic societies, with all of their problems of religion, race, ethnicity, political and social divisions from Germany through the Atlantic to the Caribbean to the West coast of the United States and on into the Pacific region ending back in Africa, are all striving to create the dream of equality and justice for all which was epitomized by this very great man-as by example in his life and his contribution to the world as one single community. The inventor of the World Wide Web,Tim Berners-Lee and Bill Gates, both of whom have facilitated this communication you are now reading, have likewise made profound contributions in the service of mankind. The fact that a knife can be used to cut bread or kill someone is not the real issue here. The intent to provide a platform, which,as the Electronic Frontier Foundation might say, should remain completely open and uncensored by any government or private corporation, is the only real way that a true renaissance in a future electronic age will really flourish through the internet.

The Long Walk To Freedom

It's difficult for many Russians to understand because, as with Hitler, Stalin and all opaque totalitarian regimes masking as libertarians, their governments, through the media and branches of administration,

in public and private business, paint a picture of a society not as it is but as they wish it to be perceived and conformed to. This issue of the coverage of the death of Nelson Mandela is very dangerous to a society built on deception, rigidity of hierarchical structure,stratified caste and class systems with little social mobility and which functions on separation of the races, as a core theme of 'separate but equal'

echoing the days of Apartheid in South Africa or racial segregation in the United States.

Russian Coverage of Political Events In the United States

One can see this in Russia Today coverage of the Obama administration-where subtle (if not blatant) attempts are always made to portray The President's administration as incompetent and financially inept rather than explaining the deep philosophical political divisions in policy direction between the Republican and Democratic parties-and the hatred this has fueled-because of ignorance and absence of commonsense amongst squabbling politicians-all vying for a slice of media coverage to espouse their corporate or commercial-philosophical-driven ideologies, which are all working against the interests of the ordinary average man and woman-who just want to get on with life, a job, a safe,decent community,justice and fairness for all, having a home they can call their own, no healthcare (personal) bankruptcy worries for themselves, their families and a working future for each within his or her community.

Corporate Hijacking of The Political System in The West

These principles are hijacked both by corporate interests-as we saw in the Federal Government shutdown in the United states this year or, in totalitarian and fascist regimes, by the new nomenklatura, the political and new economic elites who perceive stability in terms of rigid societal stratification.

Both types of societies produce ruling elite classes. The difference lies in the fluidity of social mobility

between the elites-as both types of (societal) models have had different historical transformations.

Change in South Africa was inspired not just by the African National Congress but by open democratic support from millions of people living and organizing against Apartheid in South Africa in the Free World (as opposed to those individuals living behind the Iron Curtain- in Russia and the Warsaw Pact countries)

and in Communist China-where personal liberty to organize in support of the ANC was always illegal-unless it was State controlled.

Communism, it's Successor and Islama-Fascism

As with 'aid' from Saudi Arabia today to countries in need, the only purpose of Soviet aid was to promulgate communism (Saudi Arabia's only mission is to export it's brand of religious racism and Islamic-Fascism) as an ideology to be espoused by any future independent 'free' South Africa. Quite rightly Nelson Mandela was very quick to recognize such 'aid'

from Communist Russia s yet another form of enslavement-this time to Moscow-and, to the displeasure of Moscow, distanced himself from communism.

His State visit to the Russian Federation in 1999 was downgraded to that of a minor event and received virtual no coverage within the Federation-as the majority of rural Russian people still did not really know who he was or what he was doing visiting Russia. I have no doubt he could contrast his reception within the Russian federation with the rapturous and genuine receptions he received from

Cuba, to Libya, to Western Europe to the United states-where he was seen, not just as a statesman but as someone we would all, politically, with all our divisions, like to transcend and aspire to being.

This is impossible (in that they do not understand how) for totalitarian  fascist and neo-nationalist regimes to explain to their  populace the reasons for such profound coverage in the democratic world (as Karl Popper might define open societies)-so better just leave it as a minor passing event-which, other than an obligatory mention to further business friendship, the significance of Nelson Mandela's life and death is best quickly dispensed with. 

Libertarianism Stratification and Threats to National Unity-A Historical Perspective

I recently attended an evening event at a very prestigious international institution where I had the privilege for over 3 hours of listening to several renowned experts in ancient cultures and fine arts explain the purpose and significance of the antiquities and fine works of art. For one particular society, art was encouraged- up to a point where it began to take liberties beyond the pale-depicting scenes of intimacy between 'commoners' and other 'classes' in what were highly stratified societies-based on class and rank. At such points, the equivalent of the pornography Police intervened to arrest the artists-with a severe crackdown on the libertines who had strayed just a little too far and whose liberalism and bohemianism now threatened the very stratified fabric and existence of the society itself. One can see a similar process at work today in the Ukraine-one part desperately trying to break free and reform from the darkness of State-sponsored pogroms, anti -Semitism, ultra-nationalism and Racism-all inherited from Russia-and never properly dealt with under Communism-because they provided an ideal buffer to Poland, potential Polish expansionism (and now NATO) in the Western Ukraine after World War II.

The Long Walk To Freedom¹

The Jerusalem Post today reported that the EU’s Fundamental Rights Agency says it is dropping the definition of Anti-Semitism as it does no longer know how to define it;“We are not aware of any official definition [of anti-Semitism],” spokeswoman Blanca Tapia was quoted as saying by JTA (Jewish Telegraphic Agency) ''According to Robert Singer, the CEO of the World Jewish Congress, without clearly defined parameters on what constitutes anti-Semitism “it will be difficult to combat this growing phenomenon in Europe. The shocking results of the survey about anti-Semitism in Europe, released last month by FRA, show that the EU needs urgently to address this matter.”''The decision to remove the definition is “inexplicable in light of [the FRA’s] own report, which only one month earlier noted record high levels of anti-Semitism across Europe,” the Israeli Jewish Congress stated.''²

So racism is alive and well-not just in the Ukraine but also at the heart of Europe.

The dream of one good man and the long long road to freedom is a walk² we are still traveling in the West-but at least the journey has started.

¹Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Directed by Justin Chadwick; written by William Nicholson; based on the autobiography “Long Walk to Freedom” by Nelson Mandela; director of photography, Lol Crawley; edited by Rick Russell; music by Alex Heffes; production design by Johnny Breedt; costumes by Diana Cilliers and Ruy Filipe; produced by Anant Singh and David M. Thompson; released by the Weinstein Company.

Running time: 2 hours 21 minutes.

WITH: Idris Elba (Nelson Mandela), Naomie Harris (Winnie Mandela), Tony Kgoroge (Walter Sisulu), Riaad Moosa (Ahmed Kathrada), Jamie Bartlett (James Gregory), Lindiwi Matshikiza (Zindzi Mandela), and Deon Lotz (Kobie Coetzee).

Opened last week in New York and Los Angeles

http://www.contactmusic.com/article/mandela-long-walk-to-freedom-south-africa-box-office_3975420

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/29/movies/mandela-long-walk-to-freedom-with-idris-elba.html?_r=0

2http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-News/Israel-urges-EU-human-rights-body-to-return-anti-Semitism-definition-to-website-334172

³http://www.safpi.org/news/article/2013/russia-south-africa-relations-beyond-revival

Nuclear Agreement With Iran Is There More To This Deal Than Meets The Eye? The Southern Caucasus-Iran-The Caspian Sea-and the Unintended Consequences To 'Peace In Our Time'

Nuclear Agreement With Iran

Is There More To This Deal Than Meets The Eye?

The Southern Caucasus-Iran-The Caspian Sea-and the Unintended Consequences To

'Peace In Our Time'

In a historic development,The European Union and The United States have reached agreement with Iran with regard to it's right to develop nuclear technology and enrich uranium.
Is this a historic mistake which the world will pay a very heavy penalty for or is it a step on the road towards permanent peace in the region and beyond?
What I want to do in this article is to look beyond the Middle East-into the next area of conflict-the Southern Caucasus and to show how this peace deal with Iran has, ironically, brought conflict in the Southern Caucasus one step closer-an unintended consequence of the historic peace.    Lets look at the players:
Nagorno-Karabakh
There is one particular conflict which is a real and immediate threat to international security-and this recent deal will 'free' Iran in the near future to intensify insurgency in this area.
We have seen both Shia and Sunni (Salafist) international brigades fighting alongside local volunteers in areas which are predominantly Shia by tradition.
The Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) War between Azerbaijan and Armenia-where Iran is seeking to extend it's influence-is a historical dispute, a resources conflict, and a desperate scramble by the superpowers to control the vast wealth of the Caspian Sea region.  Increased terrorism and conflicts are likely to become major flashpoints in this area in the near future Let me explain why.
Moving circular from West to North to South, Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran  all border an area called the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea itself is a major transit route for oil and gas pipelines.
''The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) places the potential of the Caspian Sea at 48 billion bbls of oil and 292 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas.  Most of the offshore oil reserves lie in the northern part of the Caspian Sea while most of the offshore natural gas lies in the southern parts of the Caspian Sea.''
''The U.S. Geological Survey (USGC) also estimated that another 20 billion bbls of oil and 243 tcf of natural gas are undiscovered at this time. Most of these undiscovered reserves lie in the South Caspian area where territorial disputes between the countries bordering it have posed a significant barrier to exploration and growth.''¹
Chechnya and Dagestan
You may recall a very ferocious war in Chechnya - a Russian Province bordering Dagestan, another Russian Republic which itself adjoins the Caspian Sea (in that circular west area.) What was fueling this conflict was the prospect of breaking off Chechnya and Dagestan as independent countries so that they could negotiate access to the oil and gas reserves in parts of the Caspian Sea independent of Russia.
(While Chechnya does not border the Caspian, linked to a similar independent Dagestan, it could provide a vital safe transit corridor for oil and gas pipelines - reaching the safety of a NATO 'umbrella' in Georgia, then on out to the Mediterranean into the European Union, independent of the existing Turkish trans-Asia oil and gas 'corridor'.)
 Because of the vital strategic nature of this critical region for Russia, independence was unthinkable - hence proxy wars were (and are, to a lesser extent) still being fought over access and control of huge mineral resources in this area. So the nuclear 'deal' with Iran is, in my opinion, not just about nuclear weapons but is also about the future of the Caspian Sea region for the foreseeable future.
Giving Iran a measured  'free hand' to support insurgency groups in this region will most certainly alarm Moscow as the likelihood is that the U.S. will now provide logistical support more openly than ever to rebel groups in Chechnya - via Iran.  (Iran has also, historically, sought to extend it's influence north through Azerbaijan - the Baku oilfields - across the borders to Chechnya.)
So even though Azerbaijan is off limits to Iran - because of NATO presence - Chechnya and the disputed border area of  Nagorno-Karabakh to the North of Iran, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, will become major flashpoints of conflict in the very near future.
As we have seen in Lebanon, Syria and North Africa, no mercy will be shown to protecting Christian communities when it comes to choosing between them and vital strategic resources - by either side.
What you must bear in mind is that these are resources wars in huge oil, gas, gold, precious and rare earth mineral - rich regions -and not what the politicians and the general media (CNN, Fox,  MSNBC) will attempt to portray.   The conflicts are fueled in the knowledge that oil and gas in the Middle East is running out (maybe not tomorrow-but soon) and that the Caspian Sea, the Asian gateway to oil and gas wealth for the European Union and the United States, will be the new 'El Dorado' of tomorrow.

Russian Forces in Armenia-How Will They Respond To An Attack by Azerbaijan?
Armenia, with the tacit (unofficial) support of Russia, by military force, successfully gained control over Nagorno-Karabakh and seven other Azeri provinces twenty years ago. Armenia claims these provinces are historically part of Armenia - and that it is simply retaking lands which were unjustly separated during respective periods of Persian and Ottoman conquests. There are dialects of ancient Armenian spoken in all 7 provinces and, historically, Armenia's claim is justified.   In the world of realpolitik however, where oil and liquid gold are thicker than blood, it's claims have not been internationally recognized.
Some 20 years ago, when Armenia seized the 7 provinces from Azerbaijan, it had a well-funded, well-equipped and highly trained armed forces vastly superior to those of the Azeris.
Today the situation is radically different.   Huge oil, gas and mineral reserves and their economic development have made Azerbaijan a phenomenally wealthy country (at least for those in control.)
It's President, Ilham Aliyev,  is a strongman - not dissimilar to the late Colonel Gadhafi - and rules the country with an iron fist (in a velvet glove.)  With the support of NATO, Azerbaijan has modernized it's armed forces and is outspending Armenia on the purchase of defensive, and more notably, from the United States, weapons with offensive capabilities.
To counterbalance this, Russian military forces have been upgraded in Armenia as an imminent threat of war in Russian South Caucasus security area (the soft underbelly) looms closer.

“If Azerbaijan decides to restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force the [Russian] military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the Russian Federation’s obligations within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),” Ruzinsky ¹²
told the Russian Defense Ministry’s “Krasnaya Zvezda” newspaper in a recent interview.
(Colonel Andrey Ruzinsky is the Senior Commander of 102nd military base, Russian Armed Forces in Armenia.)  Defense Minister of Russia, Sergey Shoygu, said recently, at an urgently requested meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Zakir Hasanov, in Moscow, that the media misquoted  the interview given by the Commander of [Russian] 102 military base in Armenia,  to the [Russian] Military newspaper, Krasnaya Zvezda.   Shoygu said that the misquote was ''probably a mistake'' (!)

In the last few months, The Russian base in Armenia, which numbers between 4,000 and 5,000 soldiers, has been upgraded with modern weaponry, reportedly including Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that Russia has already deployed combat helicopters. The Russian Air Force unit in Armenia currently has 16 MiG-29 fighter jets.   [Deleted reference to Antonov An-225.
An-225 is not operated in Armenia but only used for logistical transport of civilian cargo worldwide.]

Freeing up Iran as a 'non-player' part of this anticipated conflict, is more critical to the long term economic, political and military security of the West than any misgivings the Israelis may have about doing deals with it's sworn enemy. When it comes to global politics, Israel is not a major player-if the issues do not specifically involve the interests and security of the Jewish State.   (Israel does have a modest international humanitarian program.)    Superpowers, on the other hand, have global responsibilities for world security which transcend emotional attachments to any one country.
So long as Iran does nothing irrational in rhetoric or actions - which is highly unlikely - the nuclear deal
with the West will provide the necessary breathing spaces for all involved.
As to 'fallout' unintended consequences for The South Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea region - the Road to Hell is usually paved with good intentions.


Patrick Emek
November 2013



1.http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/09/caspian-sea-asian-gateway-to-oil-wealth/
2.http://asbarez.com/115675/russian-troops-in-gyumri-will-retaliate-if-azerbaijan-attacks/
3.http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49111.htm
4.http://nisa.az/content/view/36/62/lang,en/
5.http://en.trend.az/news/politics/2189989.html
6.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nagorno-Karabakh
7.http://www.maps-world.net/central-asia.htm
8.https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&channel=np&q=russia+chechnya&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x4051d57c9d13b971:0x7faadc5dead7e13b,Chechnya,+Russia&gl=uk&ei=sTmUUpO1Oc2ThQe94oHYDg&ved=0CKgBELYD
9.https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&channel=np&q=dagestan&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x
10.http://worldwideconflicts.wordpress.com/tag/shia/
11.http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Behistun_Inscription.html
12(a)http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67712

12(b) http://www.redstar.ru/index.php/news-menu/v-armiyakh-sng/armenia/item/12045-yuzhnyj-forpost-rossii: Южный форпост России [Russia's Southern Flank]

12(b).''The military base is a mixed facility in permanent alert for immediate use . Its composition represents  major combat units and 17 units of comprehensive support . Such volume forces are at a high state of readiness  to successfully meet its mandated tasks. I should add that the fighting strength of the HDR feature in Armenia is antiaircraft missile battalion equipped air defense system " S-300B " anti-aircraft missile battalion armed with SAM which stands BUK -M1-2 , rocket artillery battery "Tornado" and the air base with a squadron of combat MiG-29 aircraft . The entire amount of forces and assets based in two dozen cantonments two garrisons.''

13(a). Aryan Armenians:
(Please note that the word 'Aryan' has been misappropriated by European civilization and used
for evil purposes.  It's origin is, in fact, Sanskrit (India).  Aryan (ārya) in ancient Sanskrit, it's native origin,
means 'one who does noble deeds'.)
The name 'Armenia' appears on ancient Persian Behistun rock inscription as 'Armina'.
In native Armenian it is also known as 'Hayk'.    Patrick Emek 2013 )

13(b). Historical Reference:
History to 114 AD:
The ancestors of the present Armenians (who call themselves Chaik'h, i.e. Pati-s, "Lords") may have settled in the country in the 8th century BC, when Sargon mentions a king of part of Armenia who bore the Aryan name Bagadatti (= Theodore). They came from Phrygia (Herod. vii.73), used the Phrygian dress and armor (Dion. of Halicarnassus; Eudoxius; Herod.) and spoke the same language (Herod. i.171). In the Bible they are called the "House of Togarmah" (Genesis 10:3; 1 Chronicles 1:6; Ezekiel 27:14; 38:6) and "Ashkenaz" (Genesis 10:3; 1 Chronicles 1:6; Jeremiah 51:27; the Assyrian Ashguza), as by their own writers of later times. Xenophon in the Cyropedia mentions a Median conquest of Armenia, Strabo their Median attire; yet Armenian girls could not understand Xenophon's Persian interpreter (Anab. iv.5). Three of the four Armenians mentioned by Darius have Aryan names. The Armenians joined the Median noble Fravartish in his revolt against Darius I (519 BC). Much of the consequent fighting took place in Armenia, which was with difficulty subdued (517). It formed part of Darius' thirteenth Nome, and afterward two satrapies (apparently Armenia Major and Minor). The government (of Armenia Major) was made hereditary in the family of Vidarna (Hydarnes) for helping to put down Fravartish. Xenophon's interesting description of the country and people and the severity of its winters is well known.
Herodotus tells of Armenians in skin and wicker-work coracles bringing wine, etc., to Babylon. Xenophon says they and the Chaldeans traded with India. Strabo mentions their caravan trade across central Asia. The satrap of Armenia had to present 20,000 young horses annually to the king of Persia at the great annual festival of Mithra. A large body of Armenian soldiers served in Xerxes' invasion of Greece. At the battle of Arbela (331 BC), 40,000 of their infantry and 7,000 cavalry took part. Armenia then became a portion of Alexander's empire, and later of that of Seleucus (301 BC), under a native satrap, Artavasdes. Armenia revolted after Antiochus' defeat at Magnesia (190 BC), and the Romans encouraged the two satraps to declare themselves kings. Artaxias, king of Armenia Major, used Hannibal's aid in fortifying his capital Artaxata (189 BC). Artaxias was overthrown by Antiochus Epiphanes in 165, but was restored on swearing allegiance. Civil confusion ensued. The nobles called in the Parthians under Mithridates I (150 BC), who became master of the whole Persian empire. He made his brother Valarsaces king of Armenia. Thus the Arsacide dynasty was established in that country and lasted till the fall of the Parthian empire (226 AD), the Armenian kings very generally recognizing the Parthian monarchs as their suzerains.
The greatest Armenian king was Tigranes I. (96-55 BC), a warrior who raised Armenia for a time to the foremost position in Asia. He humbled the Parthians, joined Mithridates VI in war with Rome, ruled Syria for over 14 years, built near Mardin as his capital Tigranocerta, and assumed the Assyrio-Persian title of "King of Kings." Lucullus defeated Tigranes and destroyed Tigranocerta in 69 BC. Tigranes surrendered to Pompey near Artaxata (66 BC), paid 6,000 talents, and retained only Armenia. Under him Greek art and literature flourished in the country. Armenia as a subjectally of Rome became a "buffer state" between the Roman and Parthian empires. Tigranes' son and successor Artevasdes joined in the Parthian invasion of Syria after Crassus' overthrow at Sinnaca 53 BC. He treacherously caused great loss to Antony's army in 36 BC. Antony carried him in chains to Egypt, where Cleopatra put him to death in 32 BC. After this, Armenia long remained subject to the Romans whenever not strong enough to join the Parthians, suffering much from intrigues and the jealousy of both powers. There is no proof of the later Armenian story that Armenia was subject to Abgarus, king of Edessa, in our Lord's time, and that the gospel was preached there by Thaddaeus, though the latter point is possible. In 66 AD, Tiridates, elder brother of the Parthian king Vologeses, having defeated the Romans under Paetus and established himself on the throne of Armenia, went by land to Rome and received investiture from Nero. Peace between Rome and Parthia ensued, and Armenia remained closely united to Parthia till Trajan's expedition in 114 AD.
_LITERATURE._
Spiegel, Altpers. Keilinschriften; Herodotus; Xenophon; Arrian; Tacitus; Velleius Patroculus; Livy; Polybius; Ammianus Marcellinus.
W. St. Clair Tisdall
Copyright Statement
These files are public domain.
Bibliography Information
Orr, James, M.A., D.D. General Editor. "Entry for 'ARMENIA'". "International Standard Bible Encyclopedia". 1915.

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