Introduction

Thailand is, as with Hong Kong, with Malaysia, and Singapore, a model for economic development - especially for the continent of Africa.

In my previous blog in March 2014 (reproduced below) I left out some important information.

Some years ago I had the opportunity to meet and question the former Thai Premier, Thaksin Shinawatra.  The setting was a Press Briefing at Carlton House in Central London.
I also had the opportunity for a 'one-to-one' chat with Mr Shinawatra.

(The premises is no longer used by the International Press for briefings.)

Thaksin Shinawatra was one of the most likeable Prime Minister's I ever met.

Very much at ease with the Press, very humble, great sense of humor, and very polite. 
I contrast that with Kofi Annan, the former U.N. Secretary General (on whose 'watch' the Rwanda genocide took place) who, the only time I met him at a venue in central London, asked me ' and what do you do for a living?'  When I informed him that I was Secretary of The Chartered Institute of Journalists, Freelance Division, he darted a cold steely look directly at me - which already said 'then you probably know all my secrets!' and hastily moved on.  (Actually I do know a lot not in the mainstream about Kofi Annan but I have never been in the 'peddling dirt' end of media research so I just committed it to memory because it was all so fascinating.)  Likewise when I was introduced by a friend to the former Malaysian Premier at a private gathering in the British House of Commons, that same 'Kofi Annan' syndrome (as I coin it!) was apparent when the words 'media' and 'researcher' were used to describe me. 

Not true of Mr Shinawatra, former Premier of Thailand, loved by half of the country and despised by the other half (including the armed forces - who mounted a coup d'etat just to prevent him from returning to power - when he would have been elected overwhelmingly by the populace in any free and fair election.  Even today, in a free and fair election, Thaksin Shinawatra would be Premier of Thailand.)

Interestingly, as with Mr Donald Trump, Mr Shinawatra is one of the wealthiest individuals in the world.  Unlike Mr Trump, he is so polite, so friendly, well-mannered and so cordial

that they were both obviously 'schooled' then 'baptised' in the fires of the business and political worlds, through very very different paths and encounters. 

I omitted this information from the article below because events in Thailand were, say, very delicate, at that time, and it would have served no useful purpose (indeed it would have been counter productive) to bring Mr Shinawatra into the equation.

A press release about the health of the King was issued yesterday - which is most unusual in the wording and stylized manner in which it has appeared.

The Thai government appears to be preparing the country (and the world) for the imminent demise of King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulajev.)

The Thai military, by mounting a coup (Thai style - nobody killed just the removal of identified 'troublesome' politicians from office) two years ago have already firmly ensured through the ensuing 'democratic elections' (Thai-style) which followed, that there will be no return of Mr Shinawatra nor political chaos in the country in the (anticipated?) event of the death of King Rama IX.

I have heard all the 'locker room' talk about the Royal Household when last in the country.

Because people are forbidden by law from talking about the King and Royal Household in the media and in public, almost everyone banters and gossips ('locker-room' style - including 'girls talk'!) about what is happening at 'the Palace' in the privacy of their homes.

The nature of what I heard (maybe real maybe imagined) convinced me that, well perhaps a more 'open' approach would benefit the reputation of the Royal Household amongst the Thai people, as a whole.

It's a very brief article but because the international media will not speculate about the King's succession (they would loose their VIP 'access privileges' in Thailand if they did !) I thought you might want to see how the Thai people view the issue of succession (in private - since they cannot by law talk publicly about this matter in the country.)

*Kofi Annan:

I must add here that there is nothing detrimental to Mr Annan. The Secretary General at the time of the Rwanda Tutsi genocide was Boutros Boutros-Ghali.   I said on Mr Annan's 'watch' referring to his delegated departmental responsibility - and not as Secretary General. 

The Rwanda genocide of the Tutsi people was an institutional (United Nations) failure at all levels.  The failures were systemic and, to this day, few lessons have been learned.  For those who were U.N. Officers it was very frustrating and decisions were taken which, to say the least, were in bad judgement.   Mr Annan was not at that time The Secretary General.

 It is also an appropriate time to mention these facts again because what is happening to the ordinary people  in The Yemen and in Syria are crimes against humanity - for which nobody will ever be brought to account.  The Yemen because it is one of the poorest countries on the planet with little to no influence internationally - and Saudi Arabia, the United States, Iran and the Russian Federation will never agree as to who are 'war criminals' in the civil ( tribal-religious) war; in  Syria because any 'war criminals' will never be agreed  between the United States, Saudi Arabia, the Russian Federation, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, The Kurdish people and the government of Syria (which, the way outsiders are speaking, you might be forgiven for thinking that this was not a sovereign independent country but governed by Imperial powers or the Ottoman Empire.)

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/1108093/thais-don-pink-for-his-majesty


http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1010762.shtml

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shinawatra

unrelated travel information:
http://www.thaitravelblogs.com/2013/09/dont-fall-for-the-grand-palace-is-closed-scam/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide


Nothing appears on the official government website (below.)
The official explanation is that there is no connection between the Royal Household and the Thai government - other than in it's capacity of acting as 'protector' of the Thai Constitution and Royal Household against destabilization and insurgency - at home and abroad.

http://www.thaigov.go.th/en.html

http://www.thaigov.go.th/index.php/en/component/search/?searchword=King+Rama+IX&ordering=newest&searchphrase=all

http://www.thaigov.go.th/index.php/en/the-cabinet1

 March 2014 article (reproduced)
 

King Rama IX (Bhumibol Adulajev)

Reports have it that Thailand's much loved and revered King Bhumibol is again in ailing health.

Fortunately his premature expiration has been falsely predicted on many occasions and, for many years, he has managed to soldier on – and the country continues prosper as a beacon of economic success and development for South East Asia and rest of the world.

Most Thais would rejoice if the King's daughter* succeeded her father to the throne.

She is (genuinely) much loved by the populace as a whole.

But the Royal line of succession precludes a Queen of Siam.

It is for this reason that millions of Thais are praying that the King will continue to live – for forever and a day.   We all know that such is not going to happen and talk in the country about the Royal succession, whilst strictly forbidden, is nonetheless the main event in every other Thai household.

The King's son, however, is the likely successor.

*eldest

[Interestingly, there has been a Buddhist prophesy for centuries that after the IX Rama, the dynasty will end.   I am unclear as to whether this solely refers to the male lineage or the dynasty as a whole.   There are so many different versions and interpretations of this prophesy that it would just be too confusing to mention all of them - other than to say that some Thais give considerable weight and respect to prophesy.]

King Bhumibol has brought stability, economic prosperity and development for Thailand as a whole.

Yes, admittedly there are groups – political parties, farmers, local communities, trades union representatives who will tell you a different story - and there are genuine grievances about wealth distribution, corruption, intrigues for power and influence within the elite of the Armed Forces and the Royal Thai Police.

Then there are border disputes with Cambodia which, thanks to international mediation and restraint by both sides, rarely escalate beyond occasional skirmishes over temples.

In November of last year, much to the disappointment of Thailand, the U.N. Court ruled in favor of Cambodia in the area around Preah Vihear Temple and ordered Thai forces to withdraw from the immediate vicinity.  This area is likely to be the flashpoint for further future conflict between the two countries as Thai nationalists and their supporters in the armed forces will never accept this decision.

There is also the prospect of Islamic insurgency intensifying in the South of the country as Malaysia does little to bring the insurgents to heel - for fear that the Jihadi militias will turn their attention (guns and bombs) to waging a campaign to destabilize the peace and quiet of Malaysia proper and an even greater threat is that they will link across with Jihadi insurgents in the province of Sabah to create a unified front – which could have devastating consequences for economic and political stability in the region as a whole.
[The Malaysia authorities will argue that they work in cooperation with Thai security forces to prevent terrorist infiltration across both sides of the border and will also suggest that arms and explosives are reaching Islamic rebels not across the Thai-Malaya border but from other countries.]

Hence the successor to King Bhumibol  will require the continued unanimous support of the Police and Armed forces to ensure that peace on the Thai-Cambodia and Thai-Malaysia borders are maintained as these areas could quickly flare into all-out wars between both parties, if outstanding border and Islamic identity issues, are not resolved to the long-term satisfaction of protagonists, and continue to linger.

Patrick Emek



http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2011/08/03/kings_failing_health_and_his_30b_fortune_puts_thailand_in_jeopardy.html


http://kanchanapisek.or.th/library/Tambiah-Thailand3.htm


http://madeinthai.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/the-nine-kings-of-the-chakri-dynasty-rama-i-%E2%80%93-the-founding-father-2/


http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324906004578289220025564486


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/world/asia/un-court-rules-for-cambodia-in-temple-dispute-with-thailand.html?_r=0


https://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20130108213038AAciCU3