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Friday, 11 November 2016

What You Should Know About The Ukraine

1.Where Is the Ukraine? (see the reference section)

2.Until the collapse of the Soviet Union The Ukraine possessed the third largest number of nuclear weapons in the world (over 2,200 by some estimates.)
3. By international agreement, the new government of the Ukraine in 1994 signed what is known as 'The Budapest Memorandum' surrendering all of it's nuclear arsenal in exchange for an international guarantee of sovereignty by Russia and the United States.
(The United Kingdom was a guarantor party to this Treaty.)
Fact 1
It was never established whether the entire nuclear program was completely dismantled in the Ukraine.
Fact 2
Several 'sting' operations managed to retrieve 'missing' nuclear fissile material from being sold on the black market originating from Ukraine.
This in itself suggests that there was (and still is?) unaccounted fissile material stockpiled somewhere in the Ukraine to this very day.
Most experts suggest that the above statement is 'nonsense' - but it is these same 'experts' who have been advising on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East for over two decades - and look at the chaos it is in.

'Chaos' Is The Name Of The Game
Some countries  in the world have had disastrous foreign policies which have created more regional instability than stability, growth and regional economic prosperity. In the Middle East in particular this would include Israel and Saudi Arabia.  [You do not have to be an expert to look at the chaos which this has caused to both of them - regionally and internationally.]
The Ukraine likewise has had a dysfunctional foreign policy  because of its relationship (or estrangement) with it's closest trading neighbor - The Russian Federation.
It was key decisions by the European Union and not the United States which added to this fractious state of affairs (see earlier blogs about The Ukraine.)
Likewise in the Middle East.  I have said repeatedly that U.S. foreign policy over the past decades has been a disaster.
You may very well be puzzled and ask why I am not a Trump supporter for this very reason alone.
The answer I can summarize in a nutshell.
Donald Trump is an ignorant, bigoted individual who over a period of forty years has shown himself to be incapable even of promoting good race relations at home in New York - let alone be able to deal with a complex world where bigotry, racism and tribalisms abound. President Trump may very well find 'a home' in the company of such individuals in Africa and the Middle East sharing similar values of tribe and race - but this is not the same as being able to solve their complex racial, tribal and religious divides which, in certain regions such as The Ukraine, are pushing the world towards all out nuclear wars.
[I have never met anyone in my lifetime ticking both boxes who has brought about harmony between disparate partisan groups.  
We usually surround ourselves with like-thinking individuals and be assured those President Trump will appoint will be no different - creating chaos on the home front (the racial, economic and class divides in the United States) and internationally - in the Middle East, the Baltic States and Eastern Europe.]

Insignificant Little Pygmies [To Use Trump's  Private Informal Language]
President Trump will make it quite clear that he will not 'go to war' over insignificant little 'economic pygmies' (I am using his own private racial slants) such as Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania - let alone The Ukraine.
Thankfully, my school gave me a better history education and, as I recall, it was that  'insignificant economic pygmy' - Serbia - which triggered World War I and the deaths of millions.
(an estimated 17 million dead and twenty million wounded to be more precise.)  (My grandfather was fortunate to have survived the Great War.)
President Trump will (as do all politicians) surround himself with an ignorant bunch of like-thinking and like-minded individuals who, by their very nature and instincts, will move the hands of the clock closer to midnight.
[You do not need to be Albert Einstein to see this state of affairs coming over the hedge.  The important question now, is, how close do you want to be when the mountains of  s*it hit the fan from all directions.  This is why I supported Hillary Clinton, warts and all.]
Bibi Netanyahu has publicly 'endorsed' President elect Trump as 'a great friend of Israel' - so you can already kiss goodbye to peace between Arab and Jew, Shia and Sunni, in the region for at least the next four years [I could be more sarcastic and say for at least the next four thousand years - but I won't be (!)]

If you factor in Trump's character and his disdain for 'Arabs', 'Muslims' and (what appear to be) 'Oriental' peoples, I really don't see anything but 'the darkness' I have already predicted for (at least) the next four years on both the home front and internationally.

Back To The Ukraine
The greatest immediate threat to world stability today is not the Middle East, not Africa, not ISIS, not Al Qaeda, not Iran, but the Ukraine.
It is not a foregone conclusion that there are no 'missing' nukes - as obsolete as they may be.
There are certainly no 'missing' nuclear scientists but there are many individuals in the Muslim world whose countries are in chaos, thanks to U.S. and Russian foreign policies, who would jump at the opportunity to 'assist' the Ukraine (and other countries) to rebuild its nuclear 'know-how'.
[read the history of how Pakistan acquired its first nuclear bomb.]

Leaving the Ukraine....
The Bigger Picture
Yes a number of nuclear scientists working on programs at home and overseas (especially in Iran) have been assassinated (reportedly by Mossad on behalf of the government of the United States) during the Obama administration years and it is likely that clandestine warfare will intensify under President Trump.  The critical question is: will assassinations and 'bombing the crap out of them' solve the world's problems and add to peace and security?
The last U.S. presidents to engage in such intense clandestine warfare as we are about to see were John F. Kennedy, LBJ and President Nixon.
The existing state of the world - a product of previous decades of both the Monroe Doctrine and aggressive U.S. foreign policy interventions and blunders - would suggest that such clandestine operations were ultimately foreign policy failures.
(Arguments will be made that assassinations and military invasions have kept the world safer from nuclear Armageddon for decades.
I would ask you a very simple question: Do you personally feel that you are living in a safer world or safer local environment today than your parents or grandparents were?  If your answer is 'no' then why assume the rest of the globe is any different?)

And The Winners Of The U.S. Presidential Election... are.....China and Russia (!)
Which is why I have also factored in China as a 'big winner' during the forthcoming Trump years of foreign policy and economic blunders as he attempts to impose American economic doctrines in regions which already distrust America and its ultimate intentions.
Interventions (or blitzkriegs) and clandestine warfare and assassinations - especially in Africa, the Middle East, Syria and Iran are unlikely to produce anything other than unintended adverse consequences.
Again just to reiterate, 'open' 'endorsement' of Trump by Bibi Netanyahu at such a sensitive time in the region is, literally, 'the kiss of death' to U.S. (and Israeli) peace hopes in the region for at least the next four years - despite all the weapons, firepower clandestine operations and U.S. financial aid President Trump will no doubt pour into the region.

Groundhog Day
Ireland (North and South) has been, both metaphorically and sometimes literally, the graveyard for centuries, of generations of British politicians. The same is true for U.S. politicians in the Middle East.   President Trump will fare no different.
The difference is that Britain and its politicians have learned from their mistakes over the centuries.
American politicians, however, are destined to 'groundhog day' for forever and a day.


©Patrick Emek, November 2016

References

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties

Nuclear weapons at a glance:who has them and how many?
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonia

 http://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/radioactive-waste-and-spent-nuclear-fuel/2009-04-three-arrested-for-trying-to-sell-nuclear-materials-in-ukrainian-sting-operation


http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/top-ten-cases-of-nuclear-thefts-gone-wrong-10854803/?no-ist

 https://nuclear-news.net/category/2-world/europe/ukraine/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuania

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonia

 http://bellona.org/news/nuclear-issues/radioactive-waste-and-spent-nuclear-fuel/2009-04-three-arrested-for-trying-to-sell-nuclear-materials-in-ukrainian-sting-operation


http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/top-ten-cases-of-nuclear-thefts-gone-wrong-10854803/?no-ist

 https://nuclear-news.net/category/2-world/europe/ukraine/




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