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Monday, 23 June 2014

The Devils Brew

History tells us that it has never been easy for the Persians (modern day Iran) to think practically until almost on the verge of total annihilation. By this time it has always, without exception, been too late to save Kings and Empires.
I am not going to give a history lesson here (I have given it in articles several years ago) but suffice to say the Iranian Clergy find themselves in the same historical 'location' as their predecessors.
They have a enemy whom they have demonized (sic. The United States) yet without the military (or, at the very least, technological) assistance of this very enemy, Shiasm itself may not survive. Their enemies can see this but the Iranian leadership is blinded by it's very own rhetoric and thus finds it impossible to 'do a deal with the devil.'   Pride.   America, on the other hand, agonizes as to how to stabilize Iraq without destroying it's relationships (economic, military and political) with the Sunni world – which, on the whole, is more 'practically minded' than their zealous Shia counterparts.   On the other hand, it is that very zeal which will motivate Iranian Shias (and many in Iraq not under the direct military control of the government) to stand and fight their ground in a way their Sunni counterparts will not.  Be in no doubt, these ISIL fanatics, highly motivated by religion, will not stop at Iraq.  The 'apostate Satan Iran' and the 'Satan Israel' will both be high priorities for their next crusades – adding to decades (maybe centuries) of new strife in the region.   They will be as inflexible about doing a deal with Iran as Iran currently is in negotiating for it's very survival with the United States.
Blinded by their own rhetoric, Iran's leadership cannot see that it's very existence is at stake.  If there every is a 'pact' between Iran and ISIL it will be a Molotov-Ribbentrop, holding position, in outlook, and, again, Iran will be the ultimate loser and will face total destruction at the hands of a very vengeful enemy – not the United States but their own Sunni 'co-religionists' backed by the rest of the powerful Sunni world united as one to rid itself of 'the Iranian heretics' for once and for all.
History would suggest that the Iranians will not 'see reason' until the 'Barbarians' are not just at the 'Gates of Rome' but are actually sacking the 'Eternal' city and putting all it's citizens to 'the sword'.
The sad fact is that today our politicians and many religious leaders have all painted themselves into corners, making it virtually impossible to escape the prisons of their own vanity, pride and rhetoric. This equally applies to the United States as it does to Iran. No superpower can survive as an insular island.  Likewise Shiasm will not survive as a religious force of world influence without the assistance of that one power which has the technological capabilities to assist it at this time of extreme crisis.   Be assured, even if the religious leadership in Qom and Tehran cannot see it, this is more a long-term crisis of survival for Iran than it is for the United States.  But both countries will ultimately be weakened should ISIL succeed in Iraq.  First Iran then the interests of the United States because in the (extremist) ISIL Sunni world Caliphates and Emirates will no doubt demand Islamic compliance codes both amongst themselves and in their dealings with 'Infidels' which the Christian world (it's citizens in particular) will ultimately find unacceptable for most interactions, except dealings in trade and commerce.
Hence my earlier statement about the ball being 'kicked' further down the road before hard choices and decisions have to be made and taken where ideologies based on religious extremism are not just in ascendancy but become the status quo.
America's (Sunni) allies in the region are all warning about doing a 'deal with the devil' (Iran).   The Shia religious leadership at Qom and Tehran are all warning their Clerics and politicians about doing a 'deal with the devil' (The United States.)  In the United States powerful politicians are equally warning about doing a 'deal with the devil' (Iran.) In this schizophrenic situation they are all damned if they do - but believe you me, they are all most certainly damned if they don't.
In the end it may well be that we will have to walk away from our responsibilities to the entire region and leave it to it's own bloody fate - only to return when the regional Puppet Masters have settled their leftover 'scores' from the era of the Prophet – or when so much innocent blood has again been shed amidst so much destruction and havoc reaked throughout the entire region, that they all have no choice but to grudgingly and universally sue for a temporal peace.


Patrick Emek

(amended June 24, 2014)

Thursday, 19 June 2014

Muqtada al-Sadr:
Where History Meets Destiny

It is sometimes said that there is a time for every great leader to meet history and destiny.
This is Muqtada al-Sadr's time of destiny.
Revered by the Shias in Iraq as both as a spiritual and a military leader and being prepared in Iran for spiritual ascendency, over last weekend, al-Sadr reportedly visited the leadership of border forces in the area of Hira, South of Najaf.
''He met its Leader to discuss the latest developments and Border Protection he checked the progress of operations of Border Protection.”
Far from fleeing to Beirut, al-Sadr was reportedly providing spiritual inspiration and blessings to Shia Commanders at various locations and is coordinating with other spiritual and military commanders in the overall region to effectively rout the ISIL (Islamic State/Caliphate in Iraq and the Levant) forces and bring to justice those Sunni butchers responsible for despicable War Crimes against prisoners of war and defenceless civilians.
Let us just hope (and if you are religious, pray) that he succeeds in those endeavors and that when they are triumphant, that he and the Shia leadership offer those captured Sunni extremists the benefit and mercy of a civilised trial without torture – something which these evil people failed to show to their captured Shia PoWs and helpless civilian victims.

I would also expect that, as a future leader of Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr will equally bring to justice all Shias involved in the summary execution of Sunni prisoners and of innocent Sunni and any other civilian victims.

Patrick Emek

http://www.abna.ir/english/service/middle-east-west-asia/archive/2014/06/16/616416/story.html

Reference from my earlier blog The Ukraine: ' The Slide Towards Civil War-Who Is Really To Blame?': 

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/al-sadr.htm

Monday, 16 June 2014

Crisis in Iraq [Part III]

                           Crisis in Iraq [Part III]


As fanatical Jihadi insurgents force a reluctant President to again commit U.S. troops to Iraq I am looking in this article at the prospects of defeating the insurgents.
I have no doubt that the civilized world stands with President Obama in attempting to stop the bloody carnage these religious zealots are bringing both to Iraq and to Syria.
My take here would be that the President may be acting too late and he also fails to address the root cause of the problem - Saudi Arabia. For so long as the West believes that Saudi Arabia will bring ultimate peace and unity to what will emerge as Emirates and Caliphates, the wholesale butchering of thousands of captured prisoners of war and of innocent Shia civilians in Iraq, Syria or elsewhere these apostates of Islam arrive, contrary to every concept of modern  humanity and harking back to a medieval past where such were the order of the day, in the name of the Pope, of Christendom or in the name of Islam, will continue.
What their merciless actions will do will be to most certainly strengthen the resolve of the world to defeat them and bring them all to justice at some time in the future.
I said in a previous article that the media in West has not prepared itself psychologically for the fact that it will be impossible to operate under such conditions – in war zones where absolutely zero international rules govern the treatment of civilians, PoWs, women and children, apply. These insurgents are not frightened at the prospect of appearing before any Western War Crimes 'tribunal' ,or, as they might say, one created by 'Satan' [sic. America and it's Allies] Indeed they are only too pleased to pose beside the mutilated corpses of hundreds or thousands of unfortunate Prisoners of War or other men, women and children, they have butchered without a shred of mercy.
I could express my disgust, my outrage, my anger or indeed cry or grieve for those helpless civilians caught up in such tragedies and lament about the futility of war – but that will neither bring ultimate, infinite, justice to the dead, nor solve the current problem. 
When I look at such refugees (either dead on the ground) or fleeing in fear with what little they can carry, with their confused and scared children clutching a precious toy, I never stop to reflect on how fortunate we are that we live in a civilized and tolerant society and remember that such extremists causing this misery would, if they had their own way, create the same conditions of intolerance and division at home.  This is the only way that they, the extremists, can survive.  This is why they have to be confronted, regardless. 
The first thing that should happen, by Presidential decree, via the Attorney General's Office and The Department of Justice, is an immediate end to the 'show trials' against the (former) Blackwater contractors, that they be restituted in full, and reinstated into an immediate support or advisory service (should they still be willing to serve) on behalf of the nation. It is individuals like this that the country needs to diffuse such an offensive in Iraq  (or at least hold the line) as conventional troops are simply out of their depth confronting such butchers. You require a different type of 'army' to confront religious zealots, one which the West is woefully unprepared for warfare against.  Neither is NATO  configured for battle against such spirited individuals.  It's like having a giant colossus, writhing and lashing out blindly with it's muscular body, hands and feet while being felled by David with his humble stone - aimed precisely where that fatal blow will do the most grievous damage. No, you simply cannot put conventional forces into such a melee.  But the good news is that America does have patriots and professionals equally motivated to confront such evil (and if there is such a thing,Satanic) forces in a way they most certainly will understand and fear in terror, and, given carte blanche, will most certainly prevail, as day follows night.
At this point in time it is akin to suicidal to commit conventional combat forces to Iraq without additional specialized resources. Public opinion should be held in check because a very clear strategy – entry and exit - needs to be devised before committing forces in these conditions, into harms way.
Secondly, these evil individuals watch carefully and understand the impact of 'public opinion' in our Christian societies. They understand 'shock and awe' probably better than we ourselves do. They manipulate divisions between Republican and Democrat, Left and Right for their own advantage. In their eyes such divisions are simply Lucifer's children fighting over the spoils of existence, which, in their perfect Islamic society, shall never exist because all would be one under one version of Allah – with all heretics (Muslim and Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jew and the rest) erased from the face of the earth.
So then, we need to 'get ahead' of the game.
Thirdly, Saudi Arabia and Iran both continue to be at the root cause of all our problems in the Middle East. To weaken one is to strengthen the other - and both are equally pernicious.
Indeed letting Baghdad fall will put these Sunni zealots into direct confrontation with Shia Iran.   But Iran's defeat will hasten the creation of Emirates and Caliphates and could herald the end of Shiasm as a dominant force in the Islamic world – leaving the road ahead for Salafism and Wahhabism to dominate the Muslim globe at a more rapid pace than I could ever have imagined. I still contend that Saudi Arabia will be unable ultimately to control the [religious] forces it has unleashed – so we will still be on a confrontational path with a zealous Islamic world.  In this scenario, the ball will simply have been kicked further own the road before hard decisions, choices and actions have to be made and taken.
It's not an easy call for President Obama, conscious as he must also be of his place in history.  But there are few options on the table – these fanatical Sunni butchers have, by their merciless actions, ensured this is fact.  I have misgivings about rushing U.S. (or indeed any conventional ) troops back into Iraq in any large numbers, given hindsight and the existing circumstances.
America's armed forces will do their job effectively and will hold the line for the politicians but they need to be supported with unconventional U.S. units more accustomed to the operating conditions of the new environment.
U.S. ground forces must also be made aware that additional resources for 'shock and awe' are being deployed in the field to support their endeavors and guarantee outright and unequivocal victory on this occasion.
Republicans will simply see this issue as something to 'bash Obama' with, failing to appreciate that our very way of life could be drastically altered if there is not unity behind the President and U.S forces when confronting extremist Islam throughout the world and, more specifically, showing that there are issues around which America and it's Allies can unite with one voice and around one flag, just as our enemies can so do.



Patrick Emek

Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Caliphates and Emirates-World Futureshock


    
         Caliphates and Emirates-World Futureshock
About 6-8 years ago I was asked by a major television network to 'paint' the face of Islam under extremism (that is to say, the 'vision' Islamic Jihadi groups have for the world.) That world news network extrapolated what I had said in words onto a (visual) 'world map'-showing quite accurately what Al-Qaeda and their sub-contracted groups had in mind - to create an Islamic Empire consisting of Emirates and Caliphates, as I had described them and as such were projected to evolve. As usual I was something of an embarrassment (the network was probably told not to follow-up and quietly drop the alarmist rhetoric of the world as I described it potentially emerging under a resurgent Islam.) I don't profess to always get it right but, in this case, I was 'right on the money'. [This is why I have empathy with individuals whom, for their own personal reasons, are not within the 'system' (of eminent think-tanks nor corporate industry nor government) but who nonetheless have have enough experience in their field to be able to accurately see how trends are evolving and are not constrained to express their views independently of government, institutions and corporations.]
Futureworld
Now that Islamic extremism is becoming mainstream in the Middle East we are now too war-weary and unlikely to go back with overwhelming force into the chaos today called Iraq and Afghanistan, I want to look at how we should be thinking of interacting with Emirates and Caliphates which stretch from The Southern Philippines, through Malaysia, Iraq, the Gulf States, through Afghanistan-Pakistan (border tribal regions) through to the parts of Kurdistan which straddle Iraq, Syria and Turkey in the Levant and across to Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.  With regard to the latter, I am looking beyond possibly decades of Islamic Jihadi (Muslim Brotherhood-Al-Qaeda linked) insurgency against the al-Sisi regime before these Caliphates emerge as a unitary entity.

''Just Get Used To It''
Several years ago I asked a prominent politician how do you 'adjust' to an an emerging China as a super-giant.  His answer was quite interesting and equally profound: 'Well Patrick I suppose you just have to get used to it.'   In much the same way as we have adjusted to China being both a vital economic partner while at the same time, a potential enemy or, at the very least, a primary key  rival, in the battle for global resources, military and economic global governance, so too it might be well worth our while seeing what economic and other areas we might find common ground to pursue within such Emirates and Caliphates so as not to create economic and military vacuums – which other superpower rivals will most willingly occupy.

Islamic Banking
Islamic banking is probably the easiest to adjust to – and one which both the Christian West and Emirates-Caliphates can equally agree.

International Trade and Commerce
Again here is no reason why religious differences should interrupt the flow of trade and commerce between willing partners.

Religious Tolerance
The repression of Christianity within such Emirates and Caliphates is likely to mean that Christian Europe and the Christian Americas will not be well disposed toward the continued expansion of Islam within the Christian world. Such will be an inevitable consequence of the (likely) widespread discrimination and repression of Christians under such Islamic regimes. The likely scenario in these Emirates and Caliphates will be, as it exists in Saudi Arabia today, that it is a criminal offence (for a native Saudi) to be anything other than a Muslim, illegal to build Christian Churches (on the grounds of heresy) and (as in Saudi Arabia) that such heretics are subject to capital punishment (the death penalty.)  On such matters it is unlikely that there will be few grounds for understanding.  The likely scenario is that, in the interests of trade and commerce, as currently takes place with Saudi Arabia for example, such matters will go, for the most part, unreported in the mainstream Western media, on the grounds of national (economic) security. Such reporting could also be construed as promoting racial or religious hatred but in any event, whether voluntary or otherwise, the fate of Christians in such lands has already been discounted in favor of trade and commerce. That's the harsh reality. In many respects such Christian communities will be portrayed to be 'leftovers' of imperial and other European empires over the millennia about whose ultimate fate, well, it does not really concern us but is the ultimate responsibility of their 'new' political (and religious) masters. I already saw this happening with the Syrian Christians in the run-up to (what was anticipated by others to be) U.S. intervention to topple the Assad regime whose minority Shia (Alawite) community were being 'painted' as minority ' lackeys', inferior, and 'out of touch' with reality.) The objective was to demonize Assad prior to invasion. Let me be clear about something here: Assad himself is a very ugly character running a tyrannical terror state where, before the uprising, you were murdered by the Secret Police just for expressing opposition to his regime. The problem however is that what was intended to replace him-Al-Qaeda- was infinitely a worse enemy of the The United States and the West than the terror regime we already knew1. Apart from everything else, Assad's intended successors were directly responsible for the murder of thousands of Americans on American soil and the murder of  U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and his Staff in Libya.
In addition to those Personnel killed by the butchers of Benghazi, others sustained terrible injuries from which they will never fully recover.

Mutiny and Military Cooperation
When President Obama was advised that mutiny within the ranks of the Armed Forces serving in Syria could not be ruled out if the President followed an (essentially Republican) agenda (which would place U.S. troops conceivably, nominally, under the command of Al-Qaeda, or, at the very least, fighting to support them) and, apart from anything else, it would most certainly become President Obama's 'Vietnam' (with the President facing a stark and certain electoral defeat – similar to that of a historical predecessor), sanity prevailed. You don't have to go to war abroad to win a general election - but sometimes it helps (!) There are many reasons why it is improbable that high level military and intelligence cooperation will exist in such a future world but such 'splendid isolation' could dramatically change overnight if these Islamic entities were faced with a common enemy – or where the support of the Christian West was vital to their very survival or stability or to the flow of strategic resources either exiting or transiting Caliphates or Emirates.

Dual Purpose Technology (Nuclear and Chemical-Biological)
Someone will make a quick buck in the future supplying such technology to Emirates and Caliphates-probably France, China, Pakistan or North Korea or all four countries. Generally speaking I would see many difficulties supplying advanced techniques to such regimes – but I do not profess to be able to read the mind of corporate America where the balance sheet is the final consideration.
[I am of course being highly cynical here.  There may well be strategic implications in such a future world which would mitigate in favor of the supply of dual technology to such Islamic regimes, despite all misgivings.]

Social and Cultural Cooperation
Highly unlikely. Even in so called 'progressive' Muslim countries in the Middle East and in the Gulf the trend is towards ultra-Conservatism. For example, Mosques are being specially built to 'placate' foreigners who visit or work in such countries and want to see where Muslims 'pray'. A sort of Muslim 'Disney World' or 'Disneyland' especially created for foreigners so that they will go home with a 'good impression' of Islam2. Under pressure from Imams, Muslim girls are now forbidden to 'shake hands' or even 'hug' in greeting Western women on the grounds that such practice is 'unIslamic' and that they (Western Women) are 'unclean'2. I recently read an article in a British Newspaper that Muslim schools in the United Kingdom teach that all Western (Christian) women are 'unclean' and are 'whores and prostitutes'. This philosophy was being indoctrinated to children as young as six years of age3.  The United Kingdom government had known about this for at least one decade (and possibly longer) but chose not to do anything in the interests of not wishing to upset good community relations. I was aware of extremism within the Muslim Schools communities in the United Kingdom but never imagined something as disgraceful as this could be happening – with the apparent tacit knowledge of the authorities, for some considerable period of time. I would go even further and suggest that over several decades in the United States and in Europe such extremist organizations have secretly infiltrated individuals into bodies (trusts and other organizations) which have considerable financial resources and have ensured that such extremist groups, colleges and schools have been well resourced and funded to carry out their 'evangelical' work. These then are the reasons I do not foresee a high degree of social and cultural cooperation between the emerging Emirates and Caliphates and the Christian world as a whole.

Global Survival In the 'New Age' of Islamic Extremism and NeoConservatism
Whether we agree with their philosophies or not, co-existence should, wherever possible, and practicable, continue to be the order of the day, to foster continuity in the areas of trade and international commerce. Equally, Emirates and Caliphates will also have to make painful choices if they intend to partake and interact with the non-Muslim world in any meaningful and mutually beneficial ways.
I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic with regard to this future world. So many times in the past I have thought that sheer 'common sense' would be the order of the day.  How could it be otherwise?  However, for so long as humans base their strategies on religious, political and economic (financial), racial, ethnic, tribal and clan doctrines, 'common sense' often just flies straight out the window – or indeed through it, shattering all the glass in the process.


Patrick Emek

revised typographical corrections on 28th September, 2014



2 unattributable source
see wikipedia speaking terms:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unattributable#.22Speaking_terms.22




Thursday, 5 June 2014

Godzilla!!!
What In The Name of Fukushima Is Going On?
Tepco's plan to build a 'Great Wall of Ice' should signal to the world that the situation is very far from 'under control'

It's been over 3 years since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster - caused incidentally by a massive magnitude 9.0 ((Mw) ) megathrust underwater earthquake (off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku) triggering a tsunami which overwhelmed the nuclear facility at Fukushima causing a major accident, the highest (level 7) on the nuclear incident scale, causing 3 nuclear reactor meltdowns and the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of local people; one of the world's worst nuclear disasters since Chernobyl, in the Ukraine, in 1986.
As I watched the radiation plume leap from the plant to kiss the horizon I instinctively felt like leaping behind my sofa to avoid contamination – fat good it would have done me (!)
Tokyo Electric Power Company, the plant managers, first tried to tackle the problem with it's own personnel. When their geiger counters ran off the scales they quickly re-grouped for Plan B: to call in the Yakuza (The Japanese Mafia!), who in turn called in their own 'markers' – offering civilian 'volunteers' to clean up the mess (and we don't to this day know what 'concessions' they were offered in exchange for this assistance by a desperate Japanese government – indirectly via Tepco of course; don't bother looking, you are unlikely to find such 'agreements' recorded anywhere or indeed reported in the Western media.) When plan B failed-and some of the world media started reporting on rather strange and shady goings on between the Japanese Mafia and the authorities, it was On to Plan C: to again try to contain what was now a monumental contamination potentially affecting not just the immediate area as proposed by Tepco, but on U.S. advice, to evacuate all residents within a 80 -100km epicenter.  The Tepco evacuation initially affecting thousands of local residents in high risk areas within the 10km radius surrounding the 3 crippled reactors and tens of thousands within a 80km area.  In addition to this, Plan C was focused on reassuring the Japanese public and a worried international community that the situation was, of course, 'under control'. When an increasingly sceptical international Western (and technologically nuclear astute) community, used to empirical thinking, started 'poking it's nose' into 'Japanese affairs' , Plan D was implemented: let the world assist (and take 'responsibility' should anything further go wrong.)   A savvy Western world wasn't prepared to 'dive in head first' but did offer technical assistance to help out a beleaguered Japanese government (but not to solve Tepco's home-grown managerial and structural problems which contributed to the disaster.) On to Plan E: blame Japanese culture as a whole, collectively, for the failings of Tepco, utilizing the concept that all Japanese must share 'collective' 'cultural' responsibility for 'failure' – so Tepco is also a 'victim' - as are the entire Japanese people – of their very own culture.  Even the Japanese people were not buying this one (!)  On to Plan F: again re-assure the world that it is safe to eat Japanese fish – forget the fact that they (the fish) don't require permission (nor passports) to 'travel' locally, nationally and (indeed internationally.) 'Japanese' fish with off-the scale radiation were turning up everywhere -and likely to be on everyone's dinner plates unless drastic (international) action was taken as the figures of the doses and levels of radiation being reported by Japanese authorities were, shall we just say, at some high degree of variance, with that which Western experts were able to discern – again from empirical analysis. On to Plan G: Prepare to loose face – by listening to international (U.S.) advice and evacuate all human life within a 50km radius this time affecting an estimated 160000 citizens – and rather humiliatingly announce to the world that a major disaster was unfolding. On to to Plan H: Well yes, tell the world that there are a few little problems with the reactors, but precautions are being take by prudently evacuating 160000 residents but the situation in still under control - and at least nobody has died. [It was only in 2014 that the official morbidity mortality figures were released and hotly contested for their accuracy by the Japanese authorities: ''More than 18,000 people died as a result of the disaster. The National Police Agency of Japan records 15,881 documented deaths and 2,668 individuals still classified as missing.'' (www.usnews.com)   On to Plan I: Blame those interfering Western busybodies for the continuing Japanese recession and the fact that nobody wants to eat Japanese fish nor farm produce in the Western world because of a few 'inaccurate' and 'wildly speculative' non-typical examples of contaminated fish (incidentally showing some 800-1500 times more radiation than would be normally expected and popping up everywhere along a 200-mile coastline – with even estimates for the contamination reaching Alaska and the Western American seaboard by 2014.) On to Plan J:Blame it on those arrogant Europeans and Americans and their international friends - Oh!;wait a minute!; we can't do that!; they're helping us at Fukushima!; onto Plan K:Launch a Trade and Travel initiative for Japan - we want those pesky foreigners to come to Japan, see that everything is 'normal' and go home telling their sceptical friends we are still in love with Manga and Hentai and everything is OK, nothing has changed - but don't make it look like a national government initiative. [Pity we didn't think of Plan K sooner! We would have made billions of dollars! look at how much the U.S. and Great Britain have pulled in from those pesky foreigners [tourists] – even the Chinese prefer London, New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Atlanta and San Francisco than seeing the beauty of Mount Fuji and our rich history.] (This initiative does not appear to have 'bought over' the discerning intrepid traveler.) On to Plan L: Lets invite in the world media so that they can see how transparently we are handling the disaster at Fukushima [yes, sadly the world now knows it's a major disaster even worse than Chernobyl so we'd better admit it quickly – and move on quickly.] But wait a minute! Many of those Western investigative journalists are professional, independent, highly aggressive, educated, and some are 'loose cannons', not like the docile Malaysians and Singaporeans. Once we let them loose, only Buddha knows what they will unearth – and we can't so easily 'buy off' their employers so as not to loose face, so we could find ourselves in even hotter water (not to pun a critical meltdown!); On to Plan M: Let's have Tepco admit their guilt, apologize to the nation and get everything back to normal again. But wait, they have already done that, haven't they?; well sort of; but that didn't work; are we back to normal yet? Perhaps nobody heard them apologize after our Official Report was published?  Shall we try that again?   No that won't work either? On to Plan N: Let's focus on lateral thinking: if we get back the Kuril Islands from Russia we shall have new fishing grounds to compensate for the 90 million gallons of radioactive water gushing out of the stricken reactors (and, by now, 2014, probably circling and polluting this entire planet.)
On to Plan O: If one of our venerated Minister's asks the elderly to kill themselves hence we will save billions of Yen on 'non-productive' 'maintenance'. They will be doing this as a service to mother Japan and saving their nation billions of Yen – which we desperately need to compensate for Fukushima. Drat! We still won't save enough to compensate for our irradiated losses!; and everything will still not be back to normal!  Why can't we just start again? On to Plan P: Why don''t we take a fresh look at the problem before we run out of plans (or characters in the alphabet for plans, whichever is the greater); On to Plan Q: Let's just give up on nuclear power, close down the countries remaining reactors and switch to alternative energy sources. But wait a minute! we don't have an alternative national energy plan for the country! There are potentially 20 geothermal sites we could look at, but nobody ever thought anything would go wrong with our nuclear energy reactors so no other source was ever developed; Onto Plan R: Reduce the amount of media airtime Fukushima gets in Japan to near zero and everyone will forget. That will surely return things to normal?  Won't it?  On to Plan S: Let's expand our diplomatic presence worldwide. That will allow us to explain to the world and our big neighbors (China and Russia) that everything is getting back to normal. Why shouldn't we? China is everywhere in the world but we are mainly in the West and South East Asia. How can we ever explain to the world that all is OK at Fukushima when they get their news from CNN, Fox, The BBC, China News and Russia Today?  Nobody has ever heard of TV Japan (let alone can understand it.) Oh, yes, I forgot, we don't want non-Japanese speakers to watch it - and do not give permission for it to be broadcast outside Japan.   We'd better change this - and get in a few Western translators!; quick! But wait a minute! Foreigners are so stupid they will never understand Japanese television – so we still cannot explain to them our version of Fukushima, and the fact that everything is OK at the plant! [give or take a few cows with three wagging tails, fish with double heads and chickens whose eggs are 4500 times the normal radiation limit. On to PlanT: Ah, Yes, Plan T! Let's call it 'Plan 'ET', 'E' for 'Extra' and 'T' for 'Terrestrial'. Bring back Godzilla! Japan's not finished – not just yet. We have our own world-wide 'Super Hero' to rival 'Superman'. Surely after this blockbuster everyone will most certainly forget about Fukushima, be visiting Japan in their millions and we can all start again? Plan U: Universal worldwide distribution of the Godzilla distribution rights: Facebook; U-Tube; A Godzilla Twitter Account; toys, confectionery, chocolates, Godzilla Sushi, e-books, T-Shirts, history of Godzilla (perhaps even an interview with the Hero itself?); If that doesn't work...On to to Plan V:''V' for Victory! Let's recall our glorious past – surely that will take everyone’s' minds off Fukushima – and we can get back to normal (!) No? How regrettable! On to Plan W: Now 'W' stands for Water. This problem all started in the sea. Godzilla came across the sea but could not take world attention away from Fukushima. Perhaps we should, in the interests of fostering good bilateral relationships,think about using Feng Shui. Yes! We will harmonize water with water! Let's freeze the soil around the irradiated stricken reactors at Fukushima! No? That won't work – unless we can freeze everything! If only Godzilla had done the job, we would not be in this crisis! No! We can't blame Godzilla! It's one of the world 'teens' favorite movie of 2014! On to Plan X: X stand for 'X-ray'. We must do something to stop the millions of gallons of Fukushima radioactive water polluting this entire planet – before some pesky journalists in the world work out exactly where these hundreds of millions of gallons of radioactive-contaminated water are actually ending up (!) [http://www.naturalnews.com/032291_Fukushima_radiation_monitoring.html:
Radiation is continuing to leak out of the reactors, the situation is not stable at all, radiation continues to leak,” says Dr. Michio Kaku, Professor of theoretical physics at the City University of New York and top graduate of Harvard. “We are looking at a ticking time bomb. It appears stable but the slightest disturbance, a secondary earthquake, a pipe break, evacuation of the crew at Fukushima could set off a full scale melt down at three nuclear power stations – far beyond what we saw at Chernobyl ' ' .] No? That won't work either? Why can't we just get everything back to normal? On to Plan Y: Or should we can it Plan 'Why?' : Why can't we just build a massive ice wall around the stricken reactors, keep it permanently frozen for, say, a few thousand years, to give us a little time to work out how to solve this problem? Surely this must work!; and everything will go back to normal. But what if it doesn't? Plan Z: We will build the Great Ice Wall of Fukushima!; sell tickets to the Ice Wall Gala Opening; and pray that the world experts have got it wrong – they just don't understand Japanese society nor Japanese culture! We will have the Grand Gala Opening – inviting as many Pop Idols as the country can afford, stream broadcast the nuclear 'freeze' live on the internet, mobile phones,Ipods, with a fanfare of the top international music artists in attendance, all happily singing and dancing. Perhaps Billy Idol will agree to open the festivities with the song 'White Wedding'?  Will this work? What happens if the ringed coils which generate ice and fence the stricken nuclear plants cause subsidence or even worse, if there is another earthquake within the next one thousand years?
Beyond Plan Z:
(Mein Führer, I Can Walk!!! )

GAME OVER…................................................................
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© Patrick Emek


References:




Mein Führer I Can Walk!!!

Thursday, 29 May 2014

Ansar al-Sharia In Libya

Barbarians At the Gates
A terrorist network linked to Al Qaeda has warned the U.S. not to involve itself in Libyan political affairs. Ansar al-Sharia, the murderous network which no doubt had full advance knowledge about the butchery of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and his Staff, is just one of the many fanatical armed groups let loose in the ensuing chaos following the overthrow of Colonel Gadhafi.
Just to put the record straight, the United States was not 'defeated' in Iraq nor in Afghanistan.
It failed to achieve the objectives set – to bring democracy and stability, for reasons I have outlined in other blogs.  Libya, however, is a very different case, and if there is a country where urgent action is now required by the United States to protect vital interests in the Mediterranean and in North Africa, it is in Libya.

Infinite Justice
I have no doubt that as I write this article Ansar al-Sharia is, already, history.

To now look beyond all of these terror networks there is new hope for the future of Libya.


Pandora's Box
I said at the time that overthrowing Gadhafi was a huge mistake.
Like the Soviet Union, he 'kept the lid' on a boiling cauldron of ethnic and tribal tensions which, when let loose, savaged and tore apart and consumed everything in their path.
There are many countries in the world which have a 'balanced fragility'.  Libya was just one where, when you let loose the dogs of war, it's like opening Pandora's box.

Corporate Hubris
As I have said in other blogs, American (corporate) hubris, has little patience nor time to take stock of 'roadblocks' and 'obstacles' to corporate objectives – hence the encouragement and reliance on the military, as a first option, to pave the way for immediate commercial, technological and industrial full spectrum dominance. Most analysts either deliberately misrepresent this as U.S. government and military initiatives rather than for what they really are – that is to say, corporate-driven, or indeed they fail to understand the relationship between corporate America and the political and military establishments.
When a greater degree of stability is brought to Libya – which may be near at hand – the hope is that corporate America will not, as it usually does, dive in head first and attempt to parachute McDonalds, Pizza Hut and democracy onto intellectual and political pygmies with contrived pseudo-political statements like 'no two countries with McDonalds or Starbucks or Pizza Hut have ever gone to war against each other.' The sole objective in Libya should be extractive – minus the Jesus preachers, the NGOs, enforced Western consumerism and the fast food takeaways.
But, of course, this will not happen and Libyans, like the tribal Afghans, will be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century by corporate America, with further disastrous consequences and results.

Topsy-turvy:
The Land of The Lilliputians
(Where Politicians Do Not Answer to Corporations but Vice-Versa)
America could learn quite a lot about how to get business done without getting entangled in local tribal, ethnic and religious politics from studying how China has advanced economically across Africa and the rest of the world.  Unfortunately this will not happen.  While China's government centrally plans for up to thirty and beyond to one hundred years of economic stability for China itself (and enjoys the luxury of dictating compliance to corporate China of what  it's vision of the world is for the next century), shareholders in the United States are constrained by the system to see no further than the short-term balance sheet, with all the negative consequences this has on their unique, limited, and very narrow perception of global governance.


Patrick Emek

 
http://magharebia.com/en_GB/articles/awi/features/2014/05/28/feature-01

Wednesday, 28 May 2014

Egypt:Another Farcical Arab Election:Remember You Got the Egyptian Election Results Here Before They Were Officially Announced



The Egyptian Election Results:

I am sorry to interrupt U.S. Memorial Week but I thought I would briefly let you know the Election results of Egypt before they are officially announced.
[I had the figures two months ago but  have had other more pressing blogs to deal with-where true democracy is being exercised and often in danger from undemocratic forces - so I left the Egyptian farcical  election in abeyance.]

So that you can truly understand the Arab World and the nature of 'Arab democracy' in the advent of the'Arab Spring'  (be it Muslim Brotherhood or otherwise) I am giving you those results here:

The Egyptian Election Results:

Why Even Bother to Vote?


General al-Sisi, the new Pharaoh of Egypt, won by between 93-97.5%% of the popular Egyptian vote.

The Egyptian and world  media will announce that the overwhelming Egyptian populace have voted for General al-Sisi and his 'vision' for Egypt.

Prediction:
You will see eminent analysts and Professors and even U.S. and European politicians and
'experts' confirming his 'anointing' as President.

This 'confirms' his overwhelming popularity and he is duly elected Dictator of Egypt.
Apologies, the word in the Egyptian media is 'President'.  I made a nomenclature error(!).
 
Anointment of a Dictator
Of course, CNN, Fox, the 'Bullhorn of President Putin' (Russia Today), China News and the rest of the world mainstream media will 'go along for the ride'. [Only motley fools like myself cannot see 'the truth' (!)]
[I would just like to add that The Muslim Brotherhood 'popular' vote-when they take their 'revenge' on the current 'tyrants', at some time in the future-be it decades, or centuries-will be something similar (90%-97% of the Popular vote or, if they really try to 'mask it' for 'world acceptance', '58-64%' of the popular vote)-such is the cycle of  Muslim  [Islamic] Arab 'democratic' politics in North Africa and The Middle East today;the cycles of terror will continue until, I really don't know when.]   It is debatable as to whether it is Islam itself which is not flexible enough to entertain democracy as we understand it or whether it is just tribalism juxtaposed and  uniquely interwoven with Islam in the Arab world.  I would tend to think the latter because, in the absence of religious interference, there are many parts of the Muslim world outside the Middle East where people can exercise their vote without fear and can actually replace governments. (Indonesia, the largest Muslim country in the world, being the best example.  There are, of course parts of this country which are more religious than others and there have been very serious religious riots and conflicts between Christians and Muslims resulting in many hundreds of fatalities on both sides - on the island of Ambon and elsewhere - but given the sheer size of the country - 17000+ islands - people can still exercise a real choice to change their administrations and central government in Indonesia in ways totally alien to the Middle East and North Africa.)
For this reason it is unwise to 'lump' all Muslim countries in the world together and say that none are immediately recognizable as 'democratic' -  as we understand democracy  in the United States and in Western Europe. 

Will The True Democrat Please Stand Up?

 As I said previously, despite all it's faults and failings, Israel remains the only democracy at present in the Middle East, with none existing in North Africa.  By that I mean it's Israeli citizens can vote to change their government and local administrations.  I am aware that there is a Palestinian statehood issue unresolved and I am aware of the lack of democracy within the Gaza Strip and The West Bank and I am aware that the rights of the Palestinians and their villages within the State of Israel should stir the conscience of the world towards encouraging a just settlement; but, somehow, you know, I cannot but sigh when I know that even if such were to happen tomorrow, and a Palestinian State within secure borders was agreed, the Palestinians might, in their own eyes, simply be 'exchanging' one 'prison' for another.
[The only comfort might be that, in their own eyes, the prison guards will be Arab rather than Israeli.]
 I take their fellow Arab Republic 'brothers' next door in Egypt as one poignant example of a  future Arab 'democratic' Palestine.   Of course I could be wrong (and indeed hope that I am) and a model similar to Indonesia could emerge.  Hopefully for the Palestinian people, the latter will prevail.]


Memorial Week 

Now that I have dealt with this farcical election in Egypt, I would like to get back to contemplation and prayer during Memorial Week in the United States and the remembrance of  true democrats and patriots who have given the ultimate sacrifice (hopefully, as here, not always in vain) for freedom and democracy on every continent and in so many different parts of the world.  [Three times in continental Europe during the twentieth century, with some reluctance but always a reliable and dependable ally, to stop tribal and ethnic bloodletting - where the different tribes, races and ethnic groups from Russia in the East to Spain in the South West, descended into a dark frenzy of rabid ethnic, racial, religious, minorities, genocide, slaughter, revenge and calculated scientific butchery resulting in the murder or death of up to 70 million souls and displacements of millions of citizens throughout that shattered continent.]



Patrick Emek




Monday, 19 May 2014

Speaking truth To Power
(Ray McGovern)


Part I

Rogue or Visionary?
Ray McGovern has often been called a 'renegade' former CIA Officer, a 'nutcase' a CO
(conscientious objector), an 'extremist', a 'radical', maybe even a 'Commie'.
Whatever opinion you take, on the big issues, he has proved over time to be remarkably accurate in his perception of the direction of U.S. Foreign policy. For that, he has earned the enduring enmity of most of the Republican political class – and even many Democratic politicians.
As a retired CIA Officer it is expected that he should go quietly into the silent night and disappear into the background.  If, as a member of the general public (and with a potential media high profile) he is no longer actively or passively 'supportive' of U.S. Foreign policy it is expected he should remain silent.   Indeed after retirement most of his former colleagues do – which is why he is unique.
Epiphany
Reviled and shunned (and occasionally 'roughed up' at political speaking events1) he really is the quintessential 'Thomas Becket'6 of America in our time.
(As there are few spiritual leaders of any worth, but many of great wealth, in the U.S. today, I am at a loss but to find a historical similarity, hence my choice of Becket.)
The conscience of America everyone would prefer to ignore.  The elephant in the room, invisible to all but those who can see.
A Saint by no means but one who more likely than not has had an epiphany 'on the Road to Damascus', seeing what he has seen and experiencing what he has experienced, retiring from the CIA has freed him to speak openly about the political (and spiritual) direction of the United States in today's world in a way he could never have done as an insider.
The CIA that he joined as an enthusiastic young man was a very different animal from what it is today.  The most important difference between then and now is it's autonomy.
Today it is a tool of partisan politicians rather than something respected for it's impartial political autonomy.   Under the guise of accountability it is not just subject to political scrutiny but is captive to the whims of every objective and agenda corporate America wishes to implement - regardless of whether such are in the best long-term political, economic, social and cultural interests of the United States in a world more dynamic, more fluid and more complex since the breakup of the Soviet Union.
9/11 and it's Aftermath
The over reliance of Elint, Comint, Sigint and Telint has left America highly vulnerable. 9/11, in my opinion, is the apex of such paucity and over-reliance.
What followed on from 9/11 has, in my opinion, been one disaster after another - failed objectives in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Libya.  For goodness sake, Al Qaeda are now on the Southern flank of Europe - all across North Africa - sorry that your mainstream media has not informed you about this.
After 9/11 such were the monumental shifts in U.S. foreign policy when world economic objectives, long in abeyance, could now be realized as opportunistic challenges to fulfill  what were paper pipe dreams and sketches of hypothetical scenarios of an ideal world the U.S. would like to arrange became possible. One of the problems was, in my opinion, an ignorance of local conditions - something the British Empire never suffered from as it always assiduously studied the culture, customs and history of peoples it was managing throughout the world so that it could be a effective and efficient custodian and administrator from afar.   Such concepts are alien to corporate America as such are too time consuming and shareholders demand profits and growth every year not every 10 or 20 years.
In an era of instant gratification, and for these reasons, American hubris has little patience.

'What If.........?'
I recall many years ago (probably three decades, certainly long before 9/11) a colleague (who had access at a senior level of authority) provided me with a think-tank paper where what evolved after 9/11 was remarkably similar to what that paper had suggested.  (I must for accuracy say that the paper did not in any way foresee 9/11 but was a scenario of a 'wish list' for re-arranging the world according as to how America, would, under ideal conditions, like it to exist.) Yes, I know that many people spent a lot of time working on 'wish lists' in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Empire but this one caught my eye again after 9/11for it's remarkable portrayal of events which are still unfolding to this very day. (The region of the Caspian Sea was also mentioned in that paper.)
Cassandra
''Before her death, in Aeschylus' play Agamemnon, she tells of how Apollo had seduced her - by offering her his special gift: prophecy.  But she changed her mind and denied him satisfaction.  His revenge was to change the gift subtly - she'd still see the future, but no one would believe her.  The real cruelty was that she would always see the truth: but be unable to communicate it.  So in the play she foresees her own brutal death - as well as Agamemnon's - but cannot prevent it.
Greek society did not recognize the woman's right to say no: so her fate is, in a sense, to have to accept the answer "no" for the rest of her life.  No to marriage, and no to her accurate prognostications.  And so she becomes a serial victim who deserves sympathy for her tragic life but gets none...''3
Whether I agree or disagree with Ray McGovern on many issues is not the point of this article.
What is important to me is that more times than not he has got it right - and far from being rewarded he has been reviled - for the embarrassment he has caused, as an insider and as an outsider, by getting it right4.
In another time and age and place perhaps such wisdom would be cherished and rewarded.
In our time and age, absolute power cannot face nor listen to truth; it's too painful to accept that even absolute power has an Achilles heel5.

History Repeating - If We Fail to Learn From Past Mistakes
Now that the war in Afghanistan is winding down and the war in Iraq is at an end, I would like to revisit an article where Ray McGovern shared his thoughts about why the war in Iraq was a mistake.
You need to appreciate that when he gave this interview he was almost a lone voice, shunned by CNN, Fox, and all the other major news networks or where invited by the media harangued as a 'crank' and 'troublemaker' as they all meekly allowed themselves to be herded on a path towards war by not questioning motives nor the evidence presented.
This article is important in the sense that other wars, involvements and commitments are just over the horizon where again other patriots will be asked for the ultimate sacrifice and for this reason there need to be more (albeit) lone voices like McGovern to question the wisdom and purpose of how to achieve America's long-term economic objectives without the first strike option of 'gunboat diplomacy' always prevailing.
It is highly unlikely that the children of corporate America magnates will be making this ultimate sacrifice.  If they were forced to, by law ( the Draft), I can assure you their parents would not be so 'gungho' and keen to promote wars abroad, to the ends of the earth, as first options.
Timeless
This interview below is, for myself, timeless, in that McGovern asks most of the relevant questions of the politicians and shows us the flaws in their arguments through rational thinking rather than partisan political demagoguery.   Ray McGovern was criticized for being 'unpatriotic'.  But is it unpatriotic to want to save the lives of U.S. armed forces personnel from being needlessly wasted when you honestly and genuinely believe their (mainly young) lives are being expended not to fulfill U.S. ethical, spiritual, and political objectives and the policy objectives of global governance, but solely to satisfy those short-term objectives of corporate America, acting independently and selfishly against the real interests and policy objectives (independent of corporate lobbyists) of the United States?  On many of the issues I have just mentioned I too would be at variance and in disagreement with Ray McGovern but the essence of my point here is that military conflicts are being prioritized over economic and social-societal pre-eminence and while there is interchangeability, any superpower whose economy is home-based on military technology rather than, for example, the export of civilian goods and services, full employment, urban renewal and government supported infrastructural, housing, medical, educational, recreational and a national job creation plan, as a right for every American in America, is on the wrong path.

Finally, do not assume that I am in accord with Ray McGovern's views on a wide range of very specific issues.  I am not.  The purpose of remembering his interview of 2003 is so that it can act as a lighthouse or beacon on the headland for journalists and politicians (at least those who can see) to perhaps reflect on as our ships set sail yet again for new and ever dangerous waters and perils, with very old and very familiar contours.

Now you read on...and judge the merits and deficits of the article for yourself.........


(It's a bit more than I usually blog in an article, so you might wanna get a cup of coffee before reading if you need to stay awake.)


                           Part II

[The article below is reproduced in full by kind permission of 'Truthout']

''Interview: 27-Year CIA Veteran by Will Pitt
t r u t h o u t | Interview
Thursday 26 June 2003

Ray McGovern was a CIA analyst for 27 years, serving seven Presidents. He
is on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.
He is co-director of the Servant Leadership School, an outreach ministry in
the inner city of Washington.

-------

PITT: Could you give me some background regarding who you are and what
work you did with the CIA?

McG: I was a graduate student in Russian studies when I got interested in
the Central Intelligence Agency. I was very intrigued that there was one
central place to prevent what happened at Pearl Harbor from happening again.
I had been commissioned in the US Army, so I needed to do my two years
service there, but wound up down in Washington DC. I took a job with the CIA
in 1963, and it was what it was made out to be.

In other words, I was told that if I were to come on as an analyst of
Soviet foreign policy, when I sat down in the morning, in my In-Box would be
a bunch of material from open sources, from closed sources, from
photography, from intercepts, from agent reports, from embassy reports, you
name it. It would be right there, and all I had to do was sift through it
and make some sense out of it. If I had an important enough story, I would
write it up for the President the next morning. That seemed too good to be
true, but you know what? It was true, and it was really heady work.

PITT: Which Presidents did you serve?

McG: I started with President Kennedy and finished with President Bush,
the first President Bush. That would make seven Presidents.

PITT: What was your area of expertise with the CIA?

McG: I was a Soviet Foreign Policy analyst. I also worked on Soviet
Internal Affairs when I first came on, but then my responsibilities grew and
I became responsible for a lot of different parts of the world. During the
1980s I was briefing the Vice President and Secretaries of State and
Defense, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and
the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. I did this every other morning. We worked
in teams of two, and on any given morning depending on schedules, I would be
hitting two or perhaps three of those senior officials.

PITT: With all of your background, and with all the time that you spent in
the CIA, can you tell me why you are speaking out now about the foreign
policy issues that are facing this country?

McG: It's actually very simple. There's an inscription at the entrance to
the CIA, chiseled into the marble there, which reads, "You Shall Know The
Truth, And The Truth Shall Set You Free." Not many folks realize that the
primary function of the Central Intelligence Agency is to seek the truth
regarding what is going on abroad and be able to report that truth without
fear or favor. In other words, the CIA at its best is the one place in
Washington that a President can turn to for an unvarnished truthful answer
to a delicate policy problem. We didn't have to defend State Department
policies, we didn't have to make the Soviets seem ten feet tall, as the
Defense Department was inclined to do. We could tell it like it was, and it
was very, very heady. We could tell it like it was and have career
protection for doing that. In other words, that's what our job was.

When you come out of that ethic, when you come out of a situation where
you realize the political pressures to do it otherwise - you've seen it, you
've been there, you've done that - and your senior colleagues face up to
those pressures as have you yourself, and then you watch what is going on
today, it is disturbing in the extreme. You ask yourself, "Do I not have
some kind of duty, by virtue of my experience and my knowledge of these
things, do I not have some kind of duty to speak out here and tell the rest
of the American people what's going on?"

PITT: Do you feel as though the 'truth-telling' abilities of the CIA, the
ability to come in with data without fear of reprisal or career
displacement, has been abrogated by this administration?

McG: It has been corroded, or eroded, very much. A lot of it has to do
with who is Director. In the best days, under Colby for example, or John
McCone, we had very clear instructions. I myself, junior as I was in those
days, would go up against Henry Kissinger and tell it like we thought it
was. I was not winning any friends there, by any stretch, but I came back
proud for having done my job. That was because Colby told me to do that, and
I worked directly for him. I also worked directly for George Bush I, and he,
I have to say to his great credit, acted the same way. He was very careful
to keep himself out of policy advocacy, and he told it like it was.

So to watch what is going on now, and to see George Tenet - who has all
the terrific credentials to be a staffer in Congress, credentials which are
antithetical to being a good CIA Director - to see him sit behind Colin
Powell at the UN, to see him give up and shade the intelligence and cave in
when his analysts have been slogging through the muck for a year and a half
trying to tell it like it is, that is very demoralizing, and actually very
infuriating.

PITT: On September 26 2001, George Bush II went down to the CIA, put an
arm around Tenet, and said that he had a "report" for the American people,
that we have the best possible intelligence thanks to the good people at the
CIA. We've come a fair piece down the road since then, and if you read
through the news these days, you get the definite sense that the Bush
administration is attempting to lay blame for the fact that no weapons of
mass destruction have been found in Iraq, to lay blame for that at the feet
of the CIA. Furthermore, by all appearances, the months of reports the
administration put out about Iraq's weapons capabilities are not turning out
to be accurate. To no small extent, it appears that there is a scapegoating
process taking place here. What is your take on this?

McG: It is interesting that you would go back to September 26, because tha
t was a very key performance on the part of our President. Here was an
agency that was created expressly to prevent another Pearl Harbor. That was
why the CIA was created originally in 1947. Harry Truman was hell-bent on
making sure that, if there were little pieces of information spread around
the government, that they all came to one central intelligence agency, one
place where they could be collated and analyzed, and the analysis be given
to policy people.

So here is September 11, the first time since Pearl Harbor that this
system failed. It was worse than Pearl Harbor. More people were killed on
September 11 than were killed at Pearl Harbor, and where were the pieces?
They were scattered all around the government, just like they were before
Pearl Harbor. For George Bush to go out to CIA headquarters and put his arm
around George Tenet and tell the world that we have the best intelligence
services in the world, this really called for some analysis, if you will.

My analysis is that George Bush had no option but to keep George Tenet on
as Director, because George Tenet had warned Bush repeatedly, for months and
months before September 11, that something very bad was about to happen.

PITT: There was the August 6 2001 briefing.

McG: On August 6, the title of the briefing was, "Bin Laden Determined to
Strike in the US," and that briefing had the word "Hijacking" in it. That's
all I know about it, but that's quite enough. In September, Bush had to make
a decision. Is it feasible to let go of Tenet, whose agency flubbed the dub
on this one? And the answer was no, because Tenet knows too much about what
Bush knew, and Bush didn't know what to do about it. That's the bottom line
for me.

Bush was well-briefed. Before he went off to Texas to chop wood for a
month like Reagan did in California, he was told all these things. He didn't
even have the presence of mind to convene his National Security Council, and
say, "OK guys, we have all these reports, what are we going to do about it?"
He just went off to chop wood.

PITT: Now why is that? There are people in America who believe this kind
of behavior was deliberate - the administration was repeatedly warned and
nothing was done about those warnings. It smacks of deliberate policy for a
lot of people. This is the current World Heavyweight Champion of conspiracy
theories.

McG: In this, I am an adherent of the charitable interpretation, and that
comes down to gross incompetence. They just didn't know what to do. Look at
who was in charge there. You have Condoleezza Rice. She knows a lot about
Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, but she has no idea about terrorism.
She had this terrorism dossier that Clinton NSC director Sandy Berger left
behind, and by her own admission she didn't get to it. "It was still on my
desk when September 11 happened," she said. They didn't take this thing
seriously.

Now, you can probably fault George Tenet for not being careful about
crying wolf. In other words, you cry wolf often enough and in an
undifferentiated way, then that is not a real service to the President. You
really have to say, "Mr. President, you know I warned you about this two
months ago, but now this is really serious." You have to grab him by the
collar and say, "We've got to do something about this." Tenet didn't do
that. So I attribute it not to conspiracy theories, but to lack of
experience, a kind of arrogance that says, "Who cares what Sandy Berger
thinks," and just gross incompetence.

Now 'gross incompetence' is not a nice thing to say about a President, but
he had no experience in this at all, and the people he surrounded himself
with also had no experience.

PITT: Given all of this - the August 6 briefing, the other terrorism
warnings, the big hug given to Tenet by Bush on September 26, and the fact
that Tenet was kept on because he knew too much about what the Bush
administration was aware of before September 11 - one gets the sense that
Tenet has been relegated to the position of lapdog. This is a frightful
position for the Director of CIA to occupy.

McG: It wouldn't be the first time, and I think regarding Tenet the term
'lapdog,' unfortunately, is apt. For example, here were rather courageous
CIA analysts under terrific pressure from the likes of Deputy Defense
Secretary Wolfowitz to establish a contact or connection between al Qaeda
and Iraq. They resisted this ever since 9/11, not out of any unwillingness
to believe it, but simply because there was no evidence to establish it. To
their credit, they held the line, and were supported by Brent Scowcroft of
all people, who very courageously spoke out and said that evidence is
"scant."

Now here's George Tenet, when push comes to shove on February 5 at the UN,
sitting right behind Colin Powell like a potted plant, as if to say the CIA
and all his analysts agreed with what Colin Powell was about to say about
contacts between al Qaeda and Iraq. That was incredibly demoralizing for all
my colleagues. That's the kind of thing that will be a very noxious
influence on their morale and their ability to continue the good fight.

PITT: Is there a great deal of unrest and unease within the CIA at this
point?

McG: Not a great deal, but an incredible amount of unease and disarray.
There are a lot of people who feel as strongly as I do about integrity. It
was not some sort of an extra thing with us. We took it seriously, and we
had a big advantage, of course. We could tell it like it was. To the degree
that esprit de corps exists, and I know it does among the folks we talk to,
there is great, great turmoil there. In the coming weeks, we're going to be
seeing folks coming out and coming forth with what they know, and it is
going to be very embarrassing for the Bush administration.

PITT: How much of a dent does this unease, and this inability to stand up
to those who have put this atmosphere in place, how much of a dent does this
put in our ability to defend this country against the very real threats we
face?

McG: A big dent, and that of course is the bottom line. What you need to
have is rewards for competence and not for being able to sniff which way the
wind is blowing. You need to have people rewarded for good performance and
not for political correctness. You have to have people who are serious about
collecting and analyzing this material. The way the analysis was played fast
and loose with, going back to last spring, is just incredible. It requires a
whole re-do of how the whole national security setup is arranged, to have
intelligence come up and have it treated with the kind of respect and the
kind of consideration it is due.

PITT: Let's bottom-line it here. In the situation regarding the question
of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons in Iraq, where does the fault
lie for the manner in which this has all broken down? Was it an intelligence
failure on the part of the CIA, or are we talking about the Bush
administration misusing both that institution and the information it
provided?

McG: It's both, really. Let's take the chemical and biological stuff
first. At the root of this, as I reconstruct it, is what I call 'Analysis by
Subtraction.' Let's take a theoretical example: Iraq had listed 50,000
liters of sarin nerve gas in 1995. The UN is known to have destroyed 35,000
liters of this. Subsequently, US bombing destroyed another 5,000 liters of
this. Therefore, QED, they have 10,000 liters of sarin.

There's no consideration given here to shelf life of sarin, what would be
necessary to keep sarin active, where it would be stored, how it would be
stored, the correct temperature and all that. Instead, it is, "We think they
had this and here is the inventory. We think we destroyed this" or "We know
we destroyed that, and so the difference, we assume, is there"

You don't start a war on an assumption, and with the sophisticated
collection devices the US intelligence apparatus has, it is unconscionable
not to have verified that so they could say, "Yes sir, we know that it's
there, we can confirm it this and that way." Instead, as I said, it was
analysis by subtraction. We had the inventory here, and we know we destroyed
that, so they must have this. Analysis like that, I wouldn't rehire the
analyst who did it if he were working for me. That's the biological and
chemical part.

To be quite complete on this, it encourages me that the analysts at the
Defense Intelligence Agency - who share this ethic of trying to tell the
truth, even though they are under much greater pressure and have much less
career protection because they work for Rumsfeld - to their great credit, in
September of last year they put out a memo saying there is no reliable
evidence to suggest that the Iraqis have biological or chemical weapons, or
that they are producing them.

PITT: Was this before or after Vice President Cheney started making
personal visits to the CIA?

McG: It was all at the same time. This stuff doesn't all get written in
one week. It was all throughout the spring and summer that this stuff was
being collected. When the decision was made last summer that we will have a
war against Iraq, they were casting about. You'll recall White House Chief
of Staff Andy Card saying you don't market a new product in August. The big
blast-off was Cheney's speech in Nashville, I think it was Nashville anyway,
on August 26. He said Iraq was seeking materials for its nuclear program.
That set the tone right there.

They looked around after Labor Day and said, "OK, if we're going to have
this war, we really need to persuade Congress to vote for it. How are we
going to do that? Well, let's do the al Qaeda-Iraq connection. That's the
traumatic one. 9/11 is still a traumatic thing for most Americans. Let's do
that."

But then they said, "Oh damn, those folks at CIA don't buy that, they say
there's no evidence, and we can't bring them around. We've tried every which
way and they won't relent. That won't work, because if we try that, Congress
is going to have these CIA wimps come down, and the next day they'll
undercut us. How about these chemical and biological weapons? We know they
don't have any nuclear weapons, so how about the chemical and biological
stuff? Well, damn. We have these other wimps at the Defense Intelligence
Agency, and dammit, they won't come around either. They say there's no
reliable evidence of that, so if we go up to Congress with that, the next
day they'll call the DIA folks in, and the DIA folks will undercut us."

So they said, "What have we got? We've got those aluminum tubes!" The
aluminum tubes, you will remember, were something that came out in late
September, the 24th of September. The British and we front-paged it. These
were aluminum tubes that were said by Condoleezza Rice as soon as the report
came out to be only suitable for use in a nuclear application. This is
hardware that they had the dimensions of. So they got that report, and the
British played it up, and we played it up. It was front page in the New York
Times. Condoleezza Rice said, "Ah ha! These aluminum tubes are suitable only
for uranium-enrichment centrifuges."

Then they gave the tubes to the Department of Energy labs, and to a
person, each one of those nuclear scientists and engineers said, "Well, if
Iraq thinks it can use these dimensions and these specifications of aluminum
tubes to build a nuclear program, let 'em do it! Let 'em do it. It'll never
work, and we can't believe they are so stupid. These must be for
conventional rockets."

And, of course, that's what they were for, and that's what the UN
determined they were for. So, after Condoleezza Rice's initial foray into
this scientific area, they knew that they couldn't make that stick, either.
So what else did they have?

Well, somebody said, "How about those reports earlier this year that Iraq
was trying to get Uranuim from Niger? Yeah.that was pretty good." But of
course if George Tenet were there, he would have said, "But we looked at the
evidence, and they're forgeries, they stink to high heaven." So the question
became, "How long would it take for someone to find out they were
forgeries?" The answer was about a day or two. The next question was, "When
do we have to show people this stuff?" The answer was that the IAEA had been
after us for a couple of months now to give it to them, but we can probably
put them off for three or four months.

So there it was. "What's the problem? We'll take these reports, we'll use
them to brief Congress and to raise the specter of a mushroom cloud. You'll
recall that the President on the 7th of October said, "Our smoking gun could
come in the form of a mushroom cloud." Condoleezza Rice said exactly the
same thing the next day. Victoria Clarke said exactly the same thing on the
9th of October, and of course the vote came on the 11th of October.

Don't take my word for it. Take Henry Waxman's word for it. Waxman has
written the President a very, very bitter letter dated the 17th of March in
which he says, "Mr. President, I was lied to. I was lied to. I was briefed
on a forgery, and on the strength of that I voted for war. Tell me how this
kind of thing could happen?" That was March 17. He hasn't received a
response from the White House yet.

That's the way it worked, and you have to give them credit. These guys are
really clever. It worked.

PITT: We were talking a little while ago about Andy Card and marketing
wars in August, and you stated that the decision to make war in Iraq was
made in the summer of 2002. General Wesley Clark appeared on a Sunday talk
show with Tim Russert on June 15, and Clark surprisingly mentioned that he
was called at his home by the White House on September 11 and told to make
the connection between those terrorist attacks and Saddam Hussein. He was
told to do this on the day of the attacks, told to say that this was
state-sponsored terrorism and there must be a connection. What do you make
of that?

McG: That is really fascinating. If you look at what he said, he said,
"Sure, I'll say that. Where's the evidence?" In other words, he's a good
soldier. He's going to do this. But he wanted the evidence, and there was no
evidence. Clark was not only a good soldier, but a professional soldier. A
professional soldier, at his level at least, asks questions. When he found
out there was no evidence, he didn't say what they wanted him to say.

Contrast that with Colin Powell, who first and foremost is a good soldier.
But when he sees the evidence, and knows it smells, he will salute the
President and brief him anyway, as he did on the 5th of February.

PITT: There was a recent Reuters report which described Powell being given
a draft of his February 5 UN statements by Scooter Libby and the Rumsfeld
boys. Powell threw it across the room, according to Reuters, and said, "I'm
not reading this. This is bullshit."

McG: I can see it happening. Powell was Weinberger's military assistant
for a couple of years, and I was seeing Weinberger every other morning in
those years. I would see Powell whenever I went in to see Weinberger, and so
I used to spend 15 minutes with him every other morning, just kind of
reassuring him that I wasn't going to tell his boss anything he didn't need
to know. Not only that, but we come out of the same part of the Bronx. He
was a year ahead of me. He was ROTC and so was I. He was in ROTC at City
College and became Colonel of Cadets and head of the Pershing Rifles, a kind
of elite corps there.

I understand Colin Powell. I know where he is coming from, I know where he
got his identity and his persona, and it was in this great institution we
call the United States Army, which, by the way, I am very proud to have
served in. But that be exaggerated, and it has been in his case. People were
expecting him to take a stand on principle and resign. That was never a
possibility I attributed to Colin Powell, because unlike General Clark,
Powell is really a creature of how he was given his identity in this whole
system. He is just not constitutionally able to buck it.

PITT: Do you think Powell was aware that the British intelligence dossier
he used on February 5 before the UN, the one he held up and praised
lavishly, was plagiarized from a graduate student who was writing about Iraq
circa 1991?

McG: No, I think he was unaware of that. I'll tell you a little story.
Back in January, Colin Powell invited all the NATO countries for a confab so
he could brief them on Iraq and tell them what they should be telling their
host governments. After one of the sessions he was in the hall, and one of
the ambassadors asked him what the evidence was like on Iraq. Powell said he
didn't know, he hadn't seen it yet. That was January.

Small wonder that Powell now brags of having had to spend four days in
early February - right before his UN speech on the 5th - up at CIA
headquarters pouring over the evidence, analyzing and selecting what he
should say on the 5th. I can only believe he had a lot on his plate - the
Middle East and other stuff - and that the daily briefings were so sparse
that he really didn't have a good handle on what the evidence was that
support this case for weapons of mass destruction and all that stuff. It
becomes more believable to me that he really was starting almost with tabula
rasa on the 1st of February, and then went up to CIA headquarters and said,
"OK, what have we got?" And the first thing he was given was Scooter Libby's
first draft, and you already recounted his reaction.

PITT: So what we have, essentially, is in the run-up to the war the
Secretary of State of the United States of America was cramming for a major
exam like a freshman in high school.

McG: Yes. And most of the evidence was being supplied by the Vice
President's office, in the person of Scooter Libby, and Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld along with Wolfowitz. That's curious enough, but an equally
important point I would make is this: I worked at senior levels up there for
27 years. Never, never once, not one time did the Vice President of the
United States, the Secretary of State or the National Security Advisor come
up to the CIA for a working visit. Vice President Bush came up a couple of
times to give awards out - after all, he was once the Director - but never
for a working visit.

We went down there. I was part of that briefing team. I would be down
there every other morning, and if they wanted more depth I would bring folks
down there with me, folks who I knew were the experts. We came to them. We
had our homework done alone, thank you very much. We got real good insights
into what the concerns were during these morning briefings, and sometimes we
got concrete requirements or papers to be done by the next day. We had a
really good window into what was uppermost in policy-maker's minds, but we
would take that back to CIA headquarters and say, "OK, now we know what they
're interested in. What to we have?" And we'd do it alone. We'd analyze the
heck out of it. We'd polish it off, pass it by our supervisors and bring it
down the next morning.

The prospect of the Secretary of State and Condoleezza Rice and Cheney
convening in CIA headquarters to sit around a table and help with the
analysis.give me a break! You don't have policy-makers at the table when you
're doing analysis. That's antithetical to the whole ethic of analysis. You'
re divorced from policy as soon as you do your analysis, and when you're
finished, you serve it up to them, and they can do what they want with it.
To be sure, that's the other part of the game. But when they get it, they
get it in unexpurgated virgin form, and that was heady and important work.
It was the only place in town, in the Foreign Affairs realm, that could and
did do that work.

PITT: Where do you see this whole issue of the manner in which the war was
sold to the American people going?

McG: The most important and clear-cut scandal, of course, has to do with
the forgery of those Niger nuclear documents that were used as proof. The
very cold calculation was that Congress could be deceived, we could have our
war, we could win it, and then no one would care that part of the evidence
for war was forged. That may still prove to be the case, but the most
encouraging thing I've seen over the last four weeks now is that the US
press has sort of woken from its slumber and is interested. I've asked
people in the press how they account for their lack of interest before the
war, and now they seem to be interested. I guess the simple answer is that
they don't like to be lied to.

I think the real difference is that no one knew, or very few people knew,
before the war that there weren't any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Now they know. It's an unavoidable fact. No one likes to be conned, no one
likes to be lied to, and no one particularly likes that 190 US servicemen
and women have been killed in this effort, not to mentioned the five or six
thousand Iraqi civilians.

There's a difference in tone. If the press does not succumb to the
argument put out by folks like Tom Friedman, who says it doesn't really
matter that there are no weapons in Iraq, if it does become a quagmire which
I believe it will be, and we have a few servicemen killed every week, then
there is a prospect that the American people will wake up and say, "Tell me
again why my son was killed? Why did we have to make this war on Iraq?"

So I do think that there is some hope now that the truth will come out. It
won't come out through the Congressional committees. That's really a joke, a
sick joke.

PITT: During the Clinton administration, if there was going to be an
investigation into something, it was going to come out of the House of
Representatives. What would your assessment of the situation be at this
point?

McG: It doesn't take a crackerjack analyst. Take Pat Roberts, the
Republican Senator from Kansas, who is chairman of the Senate Intelligence
Committee. When the Niger forgery was unearthed and when Colin Powell
admitted, well shucks, it was a forgery, Senator Jay Rockefellar, the
ranking Democrat on that committee, went to Pat Roberts and said they really
needed the FBI to take a look at this. After all, this was known to be a
forgery and was still used on Congressmen and Senators. We'd better get the
Bureau in on this. Pat Roberts said no, that would be inappropriate. So
Rockefellar drafted his own letter, and went back to Roberts and said he was
going to send the letter to FBI Director Mueller, and asked if Roberts would
sign on to it. Roberts said no, that would be inappropriate.

What the FBI Director eventually got was a letter from one Minority member
saying pretty please, would you maybe take a look at what happened here,
because we think there may have been some skullduggery. The answer he got
from the Bureau was a brush-off. Why do I mention all that? This is the same
Pat Roberts who is going to lead the investigation into what happened with
this issue.

There is a lot that could be said about Pat Roberts. I remember way back
last fall when people were being briefed, CIA and others were briefing
Congressmen and Senators about the weapons of mass destruction. These press
folks were hanging around outside the briefing room, and when the Senators
came out, one of the press asked Senator Roberts how the evidence on weapons
of mass destruction was. Roberts said, oh, it was very persuasive, very
persuasive.

The press guy asked Roberts to tell him more about that. Roberts said,
"Truck A was observed to be going under Shed B, where Process C is believed
to be taking place." The press guy asked him if he found that persuasive,
and Pat Roberts said, "Oh, these intelligence folks, they have these
techniques down so well, so yeah, this is very persuasive." And the
correspondent said thank you very much, Senator.

So, if you've got a Senator who is that inclined to believe that kind of
intelligence, you've got someone who will do the administration's bidding.
On the House side, of course, you've got Porter Goss, who is a CIA alumnus.
Porter Goss' main contribution last year to the joint committee
investigating 9/11 was to sic the FBI on members of that committee, at the
direction of who? Dick Cheney. Goss admits this. He got a call from Dick
Cheney, and he was "chagrined" in Goss' word that he was upbraided by Dick
Cheney for leaks coming out of the committee. He then persuaded the innocent
Bob Graham to go with him to the FBI and ask the Bureau to investigate the
members of that committee. Polygraphs and everything were involved. That's
the first time something like that has ever happened.

Be aware, of course, that Congress has its own investigative agencies, its
own ways of investigating things like that. So without any regard for the
separation of powers, here Goss says Cheney is bearing down on me, so let's
get the FBI in here. In this case, ironically enough, the FBI jumped right
in with Ashcroft whipping it along. They didn't come up with much, but the
precedent was just terrible.

All I'm saying is that you've got Porter Goss on the House side, you've
got Pat Roberts on the Senate side, you've got John Warner who's a piece
with Pat Roberts. I'm very reluctant to be so unequivocal, but in this case
I can say nothing is going to come out of those hearings but a lot of smoke.

PITT: So what is the alternative?

McG: The alternative would be an independent judicial commission, such as
the one that a lot of the British are appealing for in London. You get a
person who is not beholden to George Bush or to the Democrats, a universally
respected figure, and let him pick the members of the commission, and you
give them access to this material. Not restricted access, like what the 9/11
committee in Congress got. You give them everything, and you let them tell
their story. It would take a while, but they would come up with a much
better prospect of a fair judgment on what happened.

PITT: That's not going to come unless there is some pretty significant
pressure put on the administration from outside Congress.

McG: I wouldn't see that coming at all, and surely not before 2004.

PITT: In your time at CIA as a Soviet Foreign Policy analyst, you were
directly involved with analyzing Soviet policy issues in the run-up to and
duration of the Soviet war in Afghanistan?

McG: Yes.

PITT: How deep into the details of that did you get?

McG: Oh, quite deep. By that time my responsibilities had grown, and I
stayed very interested and abreast of what was going on there.

PITT: Could you talk about how America's involvement in the Soviet war in
Afghanistan led to the events of September 11? There are some very clear,
straight-line connections - starting with Brzyznski's 'Afghan Trap' in
1978 - between the two events, yes? From your perspective, how did that
develop?

McG: The big momentum was put on by a fellow named William Casey, who was
head of CIA under Reagan. He saw this as a little war that he could wage and
win, and he had a lot of support from folks on the Hill. What they did was
arm and recruit folks like Osama bin Laden and others. One of the big
decisions they had to make was whether or not to give them Stinger missiles.
I remember when that was under discussion. The dangers of giving these
uncontrollable folks Stinger missiles was emphasized, but the decision was
to go ahead and give them those missiles anyway. In many respects, the folks
that were used as our proxies in this war against the Soviets have come back
to bite us, and to bite us very hard as we know from 9/11.

PITT: The invasion came in 1979 because the Soviets were worried about
their puppet regime in Afghanistan. It became a great Muslim cause to defend
Afghanistan against the godless invaders. Osama bin Laden became a hero by
funding this fight, and by fighting along with the others. When the war
ended in 1989, when the Soviets withdrew with their tail between their legs,
Afghanistan was left in an utterly shattered and destroyed state. Given the
fact that we basically precipitated the start of that war by arming and
training those mujeheddin fighters to go after the Afghan government in 1978
and 1979, why was the decision made in 1989 to leave Afghanistan in such a
sorry state? The chaos left in the aftermath of that war led to the rise of
the Taliban. Why didn't we help clean up the terrible mess we had helped to
cause?

McG: I hate to be cynical about these things, but once we got the Soviets
out, our reason to be there basically evaporated. You may ask about the poor
people and the poor country. Well, we have a history of doing this kind of
thing, of using people. The Kurds are one example. We use them and betray
them, and we don't care much once our little geopolitical objective has been
achieved. That's what was in play here. Nobody gave a damn. We had a
brilliant victory, we got the Soviets out of there, we started pounding our
chests, and nobody gave much thought to helping the poor Afghanis that were
left behind.

In addition, these bad guys were our good guys. Osama bin Laden and all
those folks were people we armed and trained, and when you get that close -
and this is a systemic problem within the Agency - when you get that close
so that you're in bed with these guys, you can't step back and say, "Whoa,
wait a second. These guys could be a real danger in the future." You can't
make a calculated, dispassionate analysis of what might be in store for
these guys. It was a poor situation politically, strategically, and as it
turned out, analytically as well.

PITT: What we're talking about is actions and consequences. At the time,
there was not a lot of concern for Afghanistan after we had achieved our
goals there, and the place was left to fester, and 9/11 became the
inevitable consequence of that.

McG: Right.

PITT: Are you aware of the situation surrounding John O'Neill? He was a
Deputy Director of the FBI, and was the chief bin Laden hunter. He
investigated the first Twin Towers bombing, he investigated the Khobar
Towers bombing, he investigated the bombing of our embassies in Africa, and
he investigated the bombing of the USS Cole. He was the guy in government
who knew everything about bin Laden, and he quit the FBI in protest three
weeks before 9/11. He quit because he said he was not being allowed to
investigate terror connections to Saudi Arabia, because such investigations
threatened the petroleum business we do with that nation. O'Neill quit, took
a job as chief of security at the World Trade Center, and died doing his job
on September 11. The fact that he was thwarted in his terrorism
investigations clearly left a hole in our intelligence capabilities
regarding these threats - the guy who knew the most about it was not allowed
to pursue those connections to the greatest possible degree.

McG: I am aware of that. There are other FBI folks who have spoken out
about this same problem. There is an agent from Chicago named Robert Wright
who has spoken out about his being hamstrung in his attempts to investigate
these matters. Just read the book about the FBI labs that was written by
Warren and Kelley. The corruption and deceit that goes on there, and the
headquarters mentality where you can be completely incompetent and still get
a Presidential award - which is what happened with the fellow who squashed
the Minneapolis Bureau's requests for action against Moussaoui - there's
something really insidiously wrong there. The problem is that if you ask Pat
Roberts or the Judiciary Committee and the Congress to do something about
it, well, lots of luck.

PITT: Is there anything else you would like to touch upon before we are
finished?

McG: My primary attention is on the forgery of the Niger documents that
supposedly proved Iraq was developing a nuclear program. It seems to me that
you can have endless arguments about the correct interpretation of this or
that piece of intelligence, or intelligence analysis, but a forgery is a
forgery. It's demonstrable that senior officials of this government,
including the Vice President, knew that it was a forgery in March of last
year. It was used anyway to deceive our Congressmen and Senators into voting
for an unprovoked war. That seems to me to be something that needs to be
borne in mind, that needs to be held up for everyone to see. If an informed
public, and by extension an informed Congress, is the necessary bedrock for
democracy, then we've got a split bedrock that is in bad need of repair.

I have done a good bit of research here, and one of the conclusions I have
come to is that Vice President Cheney was not only interested in "helping
out" with the analysis, let us say, that CIA was producing on Iraq. He was
interested also in fashioning evidence that he could use as proof that, as
he said, "The Iraqis had reconstituted their nuclear program," which
demonstrably they had not.

What I'm saying is that this needs to be investigated. We know that it was
Dick Cheney who sent the former US ambassador to Niger to investigate. We
know he was told in early March of last year that the documents were
forgeries. And yet these same documents were used in that application. That
is something that needs to be uncovered. We need to pursue why the Vice
President allowed that to happen. To have global reporters like Walter
Pincus quoting senior administration officials that Vice President Cheney
was not told by CIA about the findings of this former US ambassador strains
credulity well beyond the breaking point. Cheney commissioned this trip, and
when the fellow came back, he said, "Don't tell me, I don't want to know
what happened." That's just ridiculous.

Cheney knew, and Cheney was way out in front of everybody, starting on the
26th of August, talking about Iraq seeking nuclear weapons. As recently as
the 16th of March, three days before the war, he was again at it. This time
he said Iraq has reconstituted its nuclear weapons program. It hadn't. It
demonstrably hadn't. There has been nothing like that uncovered in Iraq. As
the first President Bush said about the invasion of Kuwait, this cannot
stand.

One other thing I'd like to note is the anomaly that President Bush has
succeeded Saddam Hussein in the role of preventing UN inspectors from coming
into Iraq. He has not even been asked why.

There is no conceivable reason why the United States of America should not
be imploring Hans Blix and the rest of his folks to come right in. They have
the expertise, they've been there, they've done that. They have millions of
dollars available through the UN. They have people who know the weaponry,
how they are procured and produced. They know personally the scientists,
they've interviewed them before. What possible reason could the United
States of America have to say no thanks, we'll use our own GI's to do this.
Don't come in here. That needs to be brought out. For the UN to be waiting
with those inspectors at the ready, there has got to be some reason why the
United States won't let them back in.

The more sinister interpretation is that the US wants to be able to plant
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Now, most people will say, "Come on,
McGovern. How are you going to get a SCUD in there without everyone seeing
it?" It doesn't have to be a SCUD. It can be the kind of little vile vial
that Colin Powell held up on the 5th of February. You put a couple of those
in a GI's pocket, and you swear him to secrecy, and you have him go bury
them out in the desert. You discover it ten days later, and President Bush,
with more credibility than he could with those trailers will say, "Ha! We've
found the weapons of mass destruction."

I think that's a possibility, a real possibility. I think that, since it
is a real possibility, the Democrats' sheepishness on this, their reluctance
to get out on a limb and say there are no weapons of mass destruction in
Iraq, may be more explainable. But they should come around anyway.

PITT: I have heard that it is difficult to manufacture Iraqi-style weapons
of this type, because the Iraqi chemical and biological weapons have a
particular signature created in their inception that is hard to duplicate.

McG: It was very difficult to do the forgery, too. A slipshod job was
done. When Colin Powell was asked about it , he said, "We have this
information. If it is inaccurate, fine." Like I said before, he and I come
out of the same part of the Bronx. He went to Army charm school and I did
not. That kind of tone, that kind of attitude, was always accompanied by an
obscene gesture and a four-letter word where I came from. But that's the
attitude.

If they can take that kind of attitude on a forgery, they can take the
same attitude on this. "You can believe who you want," they'll say. "You can
believe Hans Blix and Saddam Hussein, or you can believe us. We say we found
it there."

Four months ago, I would have said, "McGovern, you're paranoid to say
stuff like that." But in light of all that has happened, and light of the
terrific stakes involved for the President here - each time he says we're
going to find these things, he digs himself in a little deeper - I think it'
s quite possible that they will resort to this type of thing.



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William Rivers Pitt william.pitt@mail.truthout.org is a New York Times
best-selling author of two books - "War On Iraq" available now from Context
Books, and "The Greatest Sedition is Silence," now available from Pluto
Press at www.SilenceIsSedition.com.

© Copyright 2003 by TruthOut.org.

Copyright, Truthout.org. Reprinted with permission

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