Can ISIS/ISIL Be Defeated?

(fact is often stranger than fiction)

                           

[Repost]

Introduction

The Devil and The Deep Blue Sea

I am reposting this blog because events have shown that the obsession of the West and Israel with defeating (Shia-supported) President Assad in Syria is far more important than the defeat of (Sunni supported) ISIL or Al Qaeda.
The defeat of ISIL could have easily been achieved by the West being prepared to ally with Shia Iran and regional Shia forces which everyone knows have more combat experience, professionalism, and will more better stand their ground (as seasoned fighters) than their Sunni counterparts put in the frontline to battle ISIL.

Intelligence and Wisdom

You, as an intelligent reader, must ask yourself why it serves the West's interests NOT to make the necessary  alliances with Shia forces - which could have very quickly brought an end to the suffering of Sunnis and Christians in the region.
Two issues are of course Saudi Arabia and Israel and their  likely warnings about the regional effects of a Shia 'victory' against ISIL.
Secondly, the advance of Shia forces in Yemen and their likely overthrow of another despotic (and what was very weak ) Sunni administration will bring Shia power right up to the border of Saudi Arabia for a future face-off.
Thirdly, the Iraqi government is quickly realising that it's very survival against ISIL (and indeed the lives of it's Sunni politicians) are as much dependant on their close cooperation with Iran as they are with their Sunni compatriots in the Gulf and Saudi (who only appear to garnish any courage to fight with the backing of U.S. NATO and EU military forces. This point has not been lost on the incumbent Iraqi government.)
Recent events have shown that ISIL will have no less mercy on their Sunni 'brothers' who oppose their advance than they do against Western hostages.  This alone should strengthen their resolve to work closely with Shia forces in Iraq to defeat ISIL.

If, as President Obama has indicated, the 'Great White Hope' to defeating ISIL are the Kurds, and nobody doubts their courage to fight nor tenacity nor historical suffering through adversity, but at the rate taken to retake Kobani, it is likely to be several hundred years before they retake all ISIL territory, town by town, city by city with little thanks nor support from Turkey nor from their less than courageous Sunni 'brothers' in the 'laid back' Gulf Kingdoms - who are more used to paying others to do the fighting and dying than putting their own mortal lives on the line.  When you are that far removed from the firing line, you can always entertain the luxury of 'no compromise'.

As you will see below, there are other options, but to the United States and The European Union, they are all non-options as all involve unpalatable choices which, even in the interests of expediency, in this age where international diplomacy and compromise have vanished (just look around you at the contempt which so many Republicans, Democrats,Conservatives and Socialists regard the word 'compromise' - to be replaced instead with partisan and ideological stances) and are not acceptable as solutions; not even, incidentally, to save the lives of hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of Muslims, Christian and Animists (in Africa) by the time ISIL is eventually defeated.

Close To the Edge

There are other factors two of which have altered the fragility of the region: The el-Sisi administration in Egypt and Erdogan's tenacious grip on power in Turkey.
It is highly unlikely that both demagogues will survive politically into the longer term.
Military coups or popular uprisings in both countries which are supported by factions of the military could have a devastating effect on stability in the entire region - with Saudi Arabia on the next precipice of instability.                                            NATO's flank in the Muslim world would be severely put to the test.   With both Egypt and Turkey in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey having it's own agenda for an expanded Byzantine 'Islamic Empire', Saudi Arabia is likely to collapse into turmoil and money alone (to buy off the Turks and Egyptians) may not, on this occasion, save the feudal regime from (long overdue) political change.  Such crises would entail a full-blown military deployment of U.S. or NATO forces to Saudi initially to 'hold the line' while the Western politicians attempt to negotiate a transition of power to a more (regionally) acceptable Saudi administration - and this in itself is not guaranteed.

No-Win Situation

No Western country will benefit from Shia (Iranian) dominance of the Gulf.
Neither choice is very palatable - but they are the only games in town.
Saudi Arabia, for all it's despotic shortcomings, has never 'pulled the oil plug' (and apart from China, until fairly recently, bought more U.S. debt than anyone else) but neither has it encouraged reform in the Sunni world preferring instead to seek it's long term anchorage (and feudal survival) in regression to mediaeval interpretations of the Koran and Hadith and the promulgation of radical (extremist) Islam as a way of keeping 'the faithful' 'in fear' and 'in line' - in much the same way as The Pope and the Catholic Church did before Martin Luther and The Protestant Rebellion and Reformation.

If You Seek Answers, Forget the 'Official' Narrative

But where did all this instability - the pouring hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Muslim civilians fleeing as refugees anywhere and everywhere they can fron the terror of ISIL and Al Qaeda - arise from?
It certainly is not Russia which has been militarily intervening in these regions in recent times.
What Western policies have been pursued which have thrown the entire Middle East and North Africa into turmoil (and now, as I predicted several years ago, spreading from Chad, Niger, Mauritania, the Sudan, further South and East into Christian and Animist Africa and South West into Cameroon, Central African Republic and Nigeria) and have made all these regions such fertile grounds for chaos and Islamic extremism?
Again we are seeing a repeat of the same pattern of internally displaced refugees - this time Christian and Animist Africans - to the South of what were 'traditional' Muslim lands - fleeing for their lives against the onslaught of ISIL and Al Qaeda affiliate forces.

Whose Pound of Flesh Is  for Trading This Time?

So the sad fact is that (at the very least) tens of thousands of Sunni (and Shia) civilian lives will be sacrificed in Iraq and Syria and African Christian and Animist lives elsewhere because such deaths more justify long-term foreign policy and strategic objectives than delivering a swift defeat to the greatest threat to world peace since the plague - and that is what ISIL is, a virus which is being allowed to spread and contaminate the region and beyond simply to satisfy the longer term foreign policy objectives of superpowers and their allies.

It seems such a tragedy and an unnecessary waste of human lives but I suppose our politicians would (privately) justify it by saying that they are not the first (and certainly will not be the last generation in the history of mankind) to put longer-term strategic and financial interests above the needs of ordinary (non-combatant) civilians.   Publicly they will of course say that what I have said above is sheer fantasy and they (their governments) have always been pursuing peace in cooperation with allies in the region.

This is one of only two 'fictional' dialogs posted  and utilized to illustrate dilemmas in the human condition.

now read on............................................

                   Can ISIS/ISIL Be Defeated?

(fact is often stranger than fiction)

I want to approach the answer to this question in a non-standard format.

I would like you to allow me the liberty to use fiction to convey the dilemmas.

What follows is a Fictional CONVERSATION BETWEEN PRESIDENT OBAMA AND THE CHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF :

PRS.O : Give me the bottom line on this, can ISIL be defeated ?

CJCS : Mr President we can guarantee to wipe ISIL/ISIS off the face of the earth if you can provide us with orders where the following are in place :

The armed forces of Turkey, Syria (The Assad Government) , The Lebanese government (including an agreement to utilize the forces of Sheikh Nasrallah – that is to say, Hezbollah), the Israeli Defense forces, an agreement to utilize the services of the armed forces of the Palestinian authority – Islamic Jihad, Hamas , Al-Nusra and Al-Asque martyrs brigade, an agreement to utilize the forces of the Iraqi government and those of Muqtada al-Sadr , the Kurdish armed forces together with an agreement to utilize the forces of the government of iran and those of Saudi Arabia.

There are certain other Gulf States already providing logistical support and this could be extended.

If you can deliver this to us we can deliver ISIL's head to you on a golden platter and guarantee it's complete obliteration from the face of the earth.

PRS.O : You know what you ask is ridiculous and impossible. Now give me the next best option.

CJCS : you asked me an honest question Mr President and I gave an honest answer .

CJCS : temporary containment is the next option .

On your command We can do a, b, c, d,...... x y, z........but as with many issues in the world, this will be a temporary fix . but we can dress it up to look like a victory .

PRS.O : how soon before these so-called ISIL caliphates and emirates become a reality?

CJCS : Mr President any nutcase who creates a revolution in the Muslim world can call their state a Caliphate or Emirate and themselves part of ISIL/ISIS  ,  but ultimately they will have to trade and do business with someone somewhere and when they do , we will be ready and waiting for them . When they run out of resources, that's the end of their ability to fund the Caliphates or Emirates.

Do you remember Mr President when Hitler invaded Russia during World War II ?; it was a priority to capture the Baku oilfields. The same was true in North Africa in terms of oil security.  When Adolf Hitler was starved of oil and pushed back through the Ukraine and Poland , the war was was effectively over .  Russian , U. S. , British and other Allied  boots on the ground finished off the job.

CJCS: Mr President, do you remember why (the political reasons) the Roman Empire tried so desperately to wipe out the spread of Christianity and what the ultimate result was?

If ISIL can be starved of a, b, c, d,....x, y, z then we can achieve victory of sorts but, in my opinion , a total victory is still illusive for the reasons above.

P.E. The above was an illustrative work of fiction (or fictional narrative) to emphasize a number of dilemmas and paradoxes facing any administration attempting to defeat a quasi – religious movement such as ISIS/ISIL. 

 

© Patrick Emek, 2015