''We are Not at War  with  Islam''  -  President Barack Obama

As I see it, the following situation exists:

We are at war with The Palestinians, at war with Syria, at war with Iran, at war with Hezbollah, at war in Yemen, at war in Iraq, at war in Afghanistan, at war in Libya, at war in Egypt (against the majority of the population who support the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIL), Western Christian and African Allied Forces combating ISIL in Muslim Chad, Niger, Cameroon, Mauritania, Central African Republic, Somalia (The Horn of Africa) , Kenya and in Nigeria...and..it's spreading...and...just for good measure... almost at war with the Russian Federation....

If we are not at war with Islam nor with Russia....we are certainly sleepwalking ourselves into something pretty dire and ominous....

Iraq Revisited

Not too long ago I said on a Middle East TV Network Program that Paul Bremer, the U.S. appointed ProConsul in Iraq, is directly responsible for the rise of ISIL.

His total humiliation of the Sunni Iraqi aristocracy and elite after the (then popular) overthrow of Saddam Hussein and his destruction of the Iraq Ba'ath Party is directly responsible for their unequivocal support for ISIL this day - and no amount of American expressions of 'regret' will change their support for this militant sect of Islam intent on creating the worst possible nightmare since Pol Pot in their zeal to create a global Islamic Caliphate.

History teaches us that religious wars can go on for a very long time – in the hundreds of years.  I have said in an earlier blog that if this looks like such a war

our politicians will either ultimately do a deal with ISIL - as their populations will simply not back a hundred or more years of warfare in alien lands – or alternatively hurtle us all into a scenario very few in this world really comprehend and appreciate the implications of.

That aside, the issue is not whether the West will do business. My anxiety is that historical events have crossed the Rubicon and ISIL have decided, unlike their predecessors, the Taliban and Al Qaeda, never to negotiate with 'the Infidels' and their 'devil worshippers' in the Muslim world - as their ultimate defeat [by Allah] is already a foregone conclusion – so why negotiate with 'Satan'?

This is the problem with religious wars – when the Rubicon [or Styx] has been crossed.

I am of the belief that this has already happened.

Such realization will ultimately unsettle even the most 'seasoned' of politicians.

Political ignorance will result in a stampede to understand the true 'nature' of a religious war, mediaeval style.
                              [That interview was never broadcast]

Collective Amnesia

There is a 'collective amnesia' for, what the Sunni Iraqis now regard as 'U.S. War Crimes' preferring instead to just resume normal working business with the new post-Saddam regime.

It is not fully appreciated that the 'execution' of Saddam Hussein is now regarded by a majority of Iraqi Sunnis (excluding the Kurds and Marsh Arabs) as a 'war crime' to be avenged (as was the 'execution' of Gadhafi); representing just one of many complex obstacles in prying Sunnis away from their support for ISIL.

Vengeance or revenge, in this part of the world, transcends the centuries.

Do not forget, it is from this ancient civilization that the 'Hashashim' (or Assassin) originated.    It was not 'somewhere in Persia or Iran' as your online references would have you believe, but in modern day Iraq.

[It is in similar ancient lands that Alexander the Great [356-323 BC] took revenge on villages by the wholesale slaughter of every man, woman, child, animal and scorched villages in Persian-ruled lands to 'right' an old grievance [499-449 BC] caused by the treachery of Greek communities who had sided with the Persian Empire during the Persian Wars.

[My reading of history was that Alexander made them feel the pain which the Greeks endured through their own loss of life more than a century earlier - caused as a direct result of this betrayal.]

Such 'thinking' requires a little explaining to 'politically correct' 'sensitive' Western Christian audiences more sensitized to making money than to the implications of policy catastrophies in alien lands.

So what does the future hold for Christian military interventions in Muslim lands to secure strategic assets?

In the short term it will succeed. This statement may be surprising to some and will anger many others.

[I have never failed in my utterances to make as few friends as possible because the truth is always unbearable to everyone and these days (as always) the path to promotion and career success is paved with donkeys 'kissing ass' from 'charm school' to the grave. ]

The Carve Up

A temporary (historical) carve-up of Iraq (with the usual 'experts' being wheeled in to say why this is historically the right thing to do) will give temporary respite to a rapidly deteriorated situation – and blunt Sunni-ISIL territorial ambitions for perhaps a century, maybe longer. This facilitates the desire to not completely weaken the Sunnis in Iraq vis-a-vis their expansionist neighbors in Shia Iran, whilst holding out the 'prospects' of a future united country, should ISIL be marginalized. It may also give the Saudi regime and others some further respite from having to fight, with the backing of Western Christian forces, on at least two fronts against Shia Islam and continue to block internal reforms for their restless populations.

What this strategy fails to take into account are the antiquated theocratic tribal

Arab regimes which will never voluntarily reform, their burgeoning unemployed educated and semi-literate youth populations with no hope nor prospects of hope. Then there are the more 'progressive' kingdoms such as Bahrain, in a hopeless situation, caught between a rock and a hard place.

All the above I have mentioned for years and all continue to be largely ignored by mainstream media so as not to offend oil-rich kingdoms.

Reform is much more difficult now than it would have been twenty or thirty years ago.   Again these issues are covered in detail in earlier blogs and elsewhere.

Strategic Assets: The Caspian Sea and The Crimea

The new region of opportunity, chaos and future wars will be over the wealth of the Caspian Sea.   The complexities of having to deal with both Iran and Russia have still not been resolved (see my earlier blog about the Nuclear Deal with Iran.)

An unsuccessful [covert] attempt was made for several decades to create a 'secure' Western (NATO protected) oil and gas 'corridor' from the Caspian through to Turkey.  This has failed abysmally – and Russia has not forgotten the lessons learnt from that experience. This may have been just one of the reasons why President Putin reacted so quickly to re-incorporate The Crimea before it too became another 'Chechnya'.  The West has likewise learnt from that bitter experience – and has likewise not forgotten – nor forgiven Putin for this 'annexation'.

ISIL - Islamic Caliphates On The Shores Of Europe:

Libya Is Only The Beginning – Egypt Soon To Follow

The general media are now tamely and apologetically telling the public that Al Qaeda and ISIL's new base in North Africa is in Libya. [If you have been following events from this site you have had the wisdom to plan for this much earlier.]

As far as U.S. politicians are concerned ''Gadhafi is gone, what happens next is up to the Libyan people.'' It's this alarming naivety which translates into Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and demonstrates a simplistic perception of the management of Empire which, historically, traces and mirror images can be found in the study of other civilizations and empires after their cusp - but long before their decline as pre-eminent superpowers.

Indeed the great empire of Phoenicia itself was no exception to this rule.

Project Exodus

If You Are a Coptic Christian, Get Out of Egypt While You Still Can 

Empires have always had 'blind spots' for tyrants who did their bidding – right up until the moment when they too became expendable. Such is the case of Egypt.  al-Sisi is the flavor of the month. Things however have reached the point of no return. Egypt will become part an Islamic Calpihate ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood.  The only question which remains is how long it will be before one brutal tyrant is replaced with another murderous bloodthirsty regime – this time intent on butchering Coptic Christians, wholesale, as lambs to the slaughter – at least those unlucky (or unable) enough not to get out now, whilst al-Sisi rules the roost.  If not exterminated or forced 'by the sword' to convert (to Islam) they will be held, as the Nazis held some prominent Jews in mainland Europe during the Second World War, for 'propaganda' purposes, to show how 'just' the Islamic Caliphate is to 'non-believers' or 'Infidels' 'Kafirs' or 'Kuffars' – but with little prospect of exodus other than Western Christians [the general public] being beckoned [via the internet] by this mediaeval ISIL regime to 'pay' exhorbitant mediaeval 'ransom' in gold or other currency for each Christian to be 'released' and deported to Christendom. Believe me, this is on the way for Coptic Christians unlucky to be trapped when Egypt descends into hell.  And don't expect the West to offer any help.  Christian communities millennia old in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Iran have all been allowed to be exterminated with less than a whisper from either Western Christian politicians nor Christian spiritual leaders.

Theres Always A Silver Lining

Are there any silver linings?  Well if you are employed in the armaments industry in Christendom or in Muslim lands in conflict and turmoil mentioned above the future most certainly is very bright.

Likewise if you are in the funery business – especially in the Middle East and North Africa - the future is very positive.

[In parts of Africa where ISIL conflict spreads religious discord, you and your family can expect to be left on the side of the road as carcasses for wild animals as continuing savage conflcit over decades have destroyed even human dignity in this regard, and, in any event, nobody can afford to bury your chopped up decaying remains.]

Holy War

Since nobody on either side is talking compromise expect the media to trundle out new justifications for this hundred (or more) year war as the decades pass by with no end to conflicts (that is to say, Christian military involvment or support) in Muslim lands in sight.

ISIL could be defeated tomorrow – but the political price (of including Shia armies into the equation) is far too high for the U.S. to justify to regional allies – including Saudi Arabia and Israel.  In any event both would reject any suggestion of alliances with, what is considered to be, the worst of two bad options.

Whether this analysis (that an alliance with the Sunni moderate States, Emirates, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) and Kurds rather than combined alliances (in the face of a common enemy) with Shia Iran and it's allied forces is ultimately the wisest of political decisions, only time will tell.   What is for certain is that the Arab
populations throughout the Middle East, North Africa, Gulf areas, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, Christian, Muslim and Animist Africans in Kenya, Central Africa and West Africa will all bear the brunt of this hundred-year plus religious war.

Changing The Narrative
Likewise, do not expect your mainstream Western media to start admitting anything to you until decades have passed and this Holy War has been morphed, redefined and further refined in it's objective – perhaps ultimately dropping the concepts of 'the good fight' for Arab democracy, freedom of religion, individual rights and liberties or sovereignty or territorial integrity into more atavistic strategic objectives, as such wars drag on past one century. - and we are all still committed.

(edited version)

©Patrick Emek, February 2015

[ What Your Mainstream Media is Not Telling You:
Perhaps you have not heard that the principal (presiding) judge involved in the U.S. initiated Saddam Hussein 'War Crimes' trial was himself very brutally murdered by ISIL not too long ago. Likewise many of the Iraqi 'participants' in this trial (or as many Sunnis and ISIL see them - 'collaborators' ) have met very bloody ends if not having already fled to neighboring countries like Lebanon, Jordan or Turkey.]