President
Donald Trump?
I
May Be Wrong But...........
On
a head count alone, it unlikely that 'The Donald' will reach the
magic figure of 1237 delegates required for automatic endorsement as
Republican Presidential Candidate.
This
is on the basis of my analysis of how the votes are likely to be
divided in the remaining States yet to vote. I may be wrong. I hope
that I am. But the figures don't add up to 1237 delegates.
Unless
nobody comes out to vote for alternative candidates (which is
unlikely!) then Donald Trump is likley to be somewhere between 45 and
100 candidates short of automatic endorsement. Under such
conditions, he will have to either gracefully bow out or, as he has
remarked, exhort his followers to take to the streets in protest.
The
Republican 'establishment' is both hoping (and praying) the number
falls short of 1237 delegates for 'The (enigmatic) Donald.'
[My
guess is that at the Republican Convention he will, after a futile
battle, accept defeat and, within a period of a few years retire to,
perhaps, Hawaii - maybe even get together for a few games of golf
with (then) retired former President Obama (?)]
If
Donald Trump Falls Short Of The Magic Figure
Nominating
a candidate will then go back to 'the party establishment'.
The
problem with Donald is that he does not genuflect to any interest
group or lobby. Here there is no love lost between himself and, for
example, transnational policy elites – yet, like all astute
politicians – he aggressively courts all of their votes on the
campaign trail.
Nonetheless
his supporters accept him at his word when he says that he remains
fundamentally committed to the extension of American influence rather
than it being 'held hostage' to foreign lobby groups.
(Trump Cruz Ryan and Clinton are all due to address AIPAC's Policy Conference Convention over the next few days.)
Team
America
Unfortunately
he is not rich enough to replace them all (!) but certainly
intelligent enough to offer alternative options or, even more
alarming for the corrupt Washington elites, bring in or create his
own 'task force' teams to 'sort out' America. In other words, Donald
Trump is just as dangerous as was John Kennedy – with regard to
his 'vision' for America not because he has a vision, but more
because it has not been manufactured for him in China, Saudi
Arabia nor elsewhere nor do such countries have any more leverage to
influence the same in ways more favorable than they would if he were an 'insider'. In fact the opposite might very well be the case.
Like
all politicians, however, should Donald Trump ever assume Office as
President, in the coduct of pragmatic foreign policy, all bets would,
more likely than not, be off.
Skull
& Bones - But No Thules In The Box!
Skeletons
In The Attic
Interestingly
Kennedy himself was not very partial towards Israel despite the fact
that his wife was one third Jewish (a fact concealed from the general
public very well by the media for nearly half a century.)
You
could liken Kennedy (politically) with today's charismatic Democratic
Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders – who has recently declined
an invitation to speak at AIPAC because of a very busy schedule –
and who is infusing the same momentum and hope into the Democratic
Party which JFK offered to the electorate in 1960 general election.
Capricorn
One
Getting rid of Trump will not be an easy one for the insider establishment elite - who will now have to wait until the Convention if the delegate votes go to the wire with no obvious winner of the magic number.
So
Donald Trump, the first 'wildcard' since John Kennedy (but, unlike
Kennedy, an outsider from the political, military-industrial - but
not from the business establishment elite) will be stopped at the Republican Party
Convention because he will (more likely than not) lack the number of
delegates to guarantee automatic nomination – leaving the issue to
be decided by the Republican Party's 'traditional' 'backroom
horse-traders'.
He
has been a headache, a real headache to vested political Republican
Party establishment interests. (They have probably learnt some
bitter lessons from this Trump Presidential bid – one of which is
that allowing an intelligent, articulate television business
celebrity to be in the homes of tens of millions of Americans for
almost a decade - should never be encouraged nor promoted, ever
again.)
With
'The Donald' History....Where Does This Leave The Party?
So
where does this leave insider establishment politics?
The
next obvious figure is Ted Cruz. He is likewise intelligent,
opinionated and charismatic.
But
he too is disliked by Washington's insider establishment – for
other reasons. A friend of corporate financial America, the gun
lobby, bible-belt middle-America, but luke warm to foreign lobby
groups as his interests are U.S. financial interests and the
projection of U.S. influence and power abroad - as opposed to the
corruption of American politics by foreign lobby groups – anxious
as they all are to extend their own country's influence within the
United States. He is partial to Israeli lobby interests in
Washington and has the support of significant sectors of Orthodox
Jewish voters in New York, Florida and California where such group
vote would, in a Presidential candidate election, be split between
Hillary Clinton and himself.
For
example, the votes which Bernie Sanders will loose in extremist
Jewish communities and in Dixie because of his background (he is
Jewish) and his commitment to 'Peace with the Palestinian Arabs', Ted
Cruz and Donald Trump could well scoop up a significant number of
these voters.
To
say however that Ted Cruz is 'disliked' in Washington by the
(Christian) 'insider elites' would be an understatement.
He
has not spent a lot of time 'cultivating' potential patrons and
friends within such groups and traditional societies, where it is a
prerequisite ritual, to be seen - as 'a safe pair of hands'. It is often remarked that he has a lot of disdain for 'Washington insiders' preferring to spend more of his time outside and yonder beyond - in the heartland of his constituency (Texas) - than living inside the Washington matrix bubble (or sty!)
A
Cuban-American, born in Canada (a country traditionally mistrusted as
'too socialist' by many Republican 'insider' groups) Ted Cruz is
often portrayed as a gun-toting slightly scary figure (something in
the same manner Donald Trump portrays poor Hispanic economic migrants
– except this time the 'feed' for such stories sometimes come (covertly) from
his own Republican Party, and, I am likewise convinced, from overt
Democratic sources.)
It
is a great pity that pride, ethnicity, style, background,
individuality and charisma prevents a Trump-Cruz presidential ticket.
It
would certainly give Hillary a run for her money – and just might
even succeed.
But
that's what history is about: missed opportunities, chance
encounters, location, birth and status or just sheer brute force to
be ruthless enough take power – and to hold it.
Doctor
Ben Carson
I
would be doing a disservice if I did not mention Dr. Ben Carson.
His
polling amongst Southern Whites and Blacks in Dixie was not
insignificant as a Black Republican Candidate. My understanding is
that he is well-liked and respected by all who have met him and
personally know him.
There
will be many senior cabinet posts in a future Republican
administration which will require talented leadership and vision –
so don't entirely rule retired neurosurgeon Dr. Carson out in this
regard.
So
Who Will The Republican Convention Backroom Insiders Choose?
The
safest pair of hands is Paul Ryan. Lacking charisma but a
well-trusted insider, a technocrat who knows how to 'work' the wheels
of power in Washington whilst maintaining the confidence of all the
'traditional' groups – and lobbyists - at home and abroad.
So
what would a Ryan Presidency look like? It would look more like
Ronald Reagan's presidency than that of George Bush Junior. One
consolation, if it can be called that, is at least you would not find
a President Ryan (or his enforcers) storming into CIA nor NSA
Headquarters to demand that data be 'doctored' in order to justify
military campaigns abroad. Ryan is far more intelligent than to ruin
his place in the annals of U.S. presidential history with such folly.
Paul
Ryan is a gifted individual and with the right media 'makeover' will
be imprinted onto the minds of the electorate, as charismatic and the
only great hope for a ' change' Americans can really believe in.
Sadly,
neither he nor anybody on the ticket with him, are the team to defeat
Hillary Clinton - Bernie Sanders (possible) ticket.
Furthermore,
it would not at all surprise me if many middle American voters (who
are no fools) disappointed and angry with the ignominious dumping by
the 'establishment' of their choices (and the best candidates for the
job) - Donald Trump and Ted Cruz - will 'cross the floor' and, in
protest, vote for Hillary Clinton and her running mate (possibly, but
not a mandatory choice, Bernie Sanders) at the next U.S. Presidential
election, enabling the Democrats to sweep into power with a
historical majority unseen in recent decades
One
thing that is for sure, the next 'Candidate' election is
one soap opera epilog not to be missed!; wherever you live in the
world!
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